Societies under siege : exploring how international economic sanctions (do not) work

253 Pages·2015·1.394 MB·English

by  Jones, Lee

Societies Under Siege

OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,11/9/2015,SPi
Societies Under Siege
Exploring How International
Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work
Lee Jones
1
3
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Acknowledgements
The research for this book was funded by a major grant from the UK’s
Economic and Social Research Council (RES-061-25-0500), enabling the
lengthy and costly periods of fieldwork and archival research involved. I am
deeplygratefulforthissupport.Britain’sfundingcouncilsfaceunprecedented
pressures from mindless fiscal austerity and an incessant emphasis on non-
academic ‘impact’. Sadly, these external threats to academic freedom have
their internal counterparts, in the form of disciplinary gate-keeping. One
review of myESRC grant application, forinstance, stated that while I would
(presumably) wish to use ‘quantitative indicators’ to explain how sanctions
worked, since ‘no such methodology exists’, I would be unable to proceed.
ThankfullytheESRCignoredthisnarrow-mindedcounsel.Longmayitcon-
tinuetodoso!
My research benefited from extensive intellectual input from others. My
research assistants, Kelly Gerard, Sahar Rad, Zaw Nay Aung, Kyaw Thu Mya
Han, and Aula Hariri, provided invaluable support. Dozens of interviewees
kindly gave their time (and often considerable hospitality) to help improve
myunderstandingoftheircountries.KyawThu’sassistanceinMyanmarwas
particularly important in accessing local informants and providing transla-
tions. I am also grateful to Clara Portal for her collaboration on sanctions
research;MerleLiptonforherextensiveandwisecounselaboutSouthAfrica;
(cid:1)
IndréBalcaitè,forstimulatingmythinkingonBuddhisminMyanmar;Martin
Smith, Kevin Woods, and Patrick Meehan for illuminating conversations
about, and their superlative work on, Myanmar;Matthew Sheader and Khin
Maung Nyo for their help in Yangon; and Christopher Alkhoury for his
assistance at the Conflict Records Research Centre of the National Defense
UniversityinWashington,D.C.FeedbackfromTobyDodgeandElinHellquist
on earlierdrafts wasextremely helpful,aswasinputfrom threeOxfordUni-
versity Press reviewers. I am also very grateful to OUP’s Olivia Wells, Sarah
Parker,andespeciallyDominicByattfortheirefficiencyandencouragement.
IamalsoindebtedtomywonderfulcolleaguesintheSchoolofPoliticsand
International Relations at Queen Mary, University of London. In Britain’s
increasingly instrumentalist university sector, it is rare to encounter such a
warm, collegial, and intellectually engaged group of scholars in one place.
Acknowledgements
I am particularly grateful to James Dunkerley, Adam Fagan, Ray Kiely, Rick
Saull,andDavidWilliamsfortheiradviceduringtheproject.Theschoolalso
generouslyfundedaworkshoponthepoliticaleconomyofsecurityinJanuary
2013,andapolicydevelopmentworkshopattheForeignandCommonwealth
Office in April 2014. My thanks also to Lady Margaret Hall, University of
Oxford, where this project initially germinated during my stint as Rose
ResearchFellowinInternationalRelations.
Special thanks must go to my friend and intellectual collaborator Shahar
Hameiri.In2011,Ihadthedubiousfortuneofsimultaneouslyreceivingtwo
large-scale research grants—the aforementioned ESRC award, and an Austra-
lian Research Council grant for a project with Shahar on non-traditional
security. Despite the enormous workload thereby generated, it has been a
realjoytoworkwithShahar,whohasprovidedconstantintellectualstimula-
tion and comradeship, plus feedback on this manuscript and earlier papers.
Shahar’s colleagues at Murdoch University’s Asia Research Centre—Richard
Robison,GarryRodan,andKevinHewison—havealsobeenconsistentlysup-
portive,aswellasintellectualinspirations.
Finally,Iwanttothankmyfamilyandfriends,whohelpedmethroughtwo
periodsofseverepersonaldifficultyduringthisproject.Myparentsandsister
providedboundlessloveandsupport.Fortheirtruefriendship—andintellec-
tualstimulation—IamalsodeeplygratefultoAlastairFraser,PhilipCunliffe,
Mubin Haq,Vidya Kumar,Emily Paddon, DarrenParker, Allan Patience, Seb
Perry,andRosannaPhilpott.
I dedicate this book to my treasured grandparents, Cyril and Lily. My
grandma succumbed to severe dementia while I was writing this book, and
passed away while I was preparing the proofs. The process has been heart-
breaking.Butperhapsthereissomecomfortinthefactthat,havingraiseda
large family and instilled in them deep commitments to compassion and
justice,herinfluencecontinuestoechothroughthegenerations.Ihopethis
bookisworthyofallthatshetriedtoteachme.
LeeJones
London
June2015
vi
Contents
ListofFigures ix
ListofTables xi
ListofAbbreviations xiii
Introduction:TheSanctionsDebate 1
TheMainstreamSanctionsDebate 2
ShiftingtheDebate:Towards‘Mechanisms’ 6
OutlineoftheBook 10
1. APoliticalTheoryofSanctions 13
LiberalTheoriesofSanctions 16
PublicChoiceTheoriesofSanctions 25
Institutionalist‘RegimeType’Approaches 30
TheNeo-WeberianTheoryofSanctions 34
ASocialConflictAnalysisofSanctions 38
SCA’sBasicFoundations:GramscianStateTheory 39
SocialConflictAnalysisofSanctions 42
Methodology 47
2. SouthAfrica:SanctioningApartheid 52
SouthAfrica’sCoalitionalStruggles 53
ClassicalApartheid:fromColonialOriginstothe1960s 54
‘ReformApartheid’:fromthe1970stothe1980s 59
TheImpactofEarlySanctions:OilandArms 66
TheOilEmbargo 67
TheArmsEmbargo 69
TheLong-TermConsequences 71
LaterSanctions:Disinvestment,Finance,andTrade 75
Disinvestment 75
FinanceandTrade 77
ImpactonSocialConflict 81
Conclusion 90
3. Myanmar:SanctioningMilitaryRule 93
Myanmar’sCoalitionalStruggles 94
SocialConflictinMyanmarfromIndependenceto1990 95
TheMilitaryRegime’sCoalitionalandTransitionStrategy 97
TheOppositionCoalitionandTransitionStrategy 100
Contents
TheMaterialandDistributionalConsequencesofSanctions 104
Trade:ReorientationTowardsAsia 105
Garments 107
Timber 107
JadeandGemstones 108
Investment:ConcentratingDevelopmentinAsian-OrientedPrimarySectors 108
Grass-rootsDisinvestmentandBoycotts 111
Disinvestment 111
Tourism 112
TheDollarBan 112
OverseasAidandAssistance 113
TargetedSanctions:VisaBansandAssetFreezes 114
ArmsEmbargoes 115
Summary 115
Sanctions’ImpactonCoalitionalStruggles 116
TheRulingSLORC/SPDCCoalition 116
TheOppositionCoalition 123
Conclusion 127
4. Iraq:SanctioningDictatorship 130
Iraq’sCoalitionalStruggles 132
Iraq’sRulingCoalition 133
TheOppositionCoalition 136
TheEconomicImpactofSanctionsonIraq 138
PhaseOne:1990–6 139
PhaseTwo:1996–2003 141
TheImpactofSanctionsonIraqiSocialConflict:1990–6 142
RegimeResponses,1990–2 142
RegimeResponses,1992–6 146
SanctionsandtheIraqiOpposition,1990–6 154
Iraq’sCoalitionalStrugglesundertheOFFP 159
RegimeResponsestotheOFFP 159
TheOppositionundertheOFFP 166
Conclusion 168
Conclusion 175
SanctionsandRulingCoalitions 176
SanctionsandOppositionForces 178
TargetedSanctions:NotSo‘Smart’? 183
RethinkingtheAppealofSanctions 185
RecommendationsforSanctionsAdvocatesandPolicymakers 189
AbandonAnalogicalReasoning 189
PlanningandEvaluatingSanctions 190
Bibliography 193
Index 225
viii
List of Figures
2.1 SouthAfrica’sforeigndirectinvestmentstock(US$millions,current
exchangerates) 78
2.2 SouthAfricantradeandGDP(US$millions,currentexchangerates) 80
2.3 SouthAfrica’sGDPandGDPpercapita(constantSouthAfricanRand,
baseyear2013) 80
3.1 Myanmar’sexports(currentUS$millions) 106
3.2 Myanmar’sinwardforeigndirectinvestmentstock(currentUS$millions) 109
4.1 Iraqieconomicindicators(currentUS$millions) 140