Socialist Planning PDF
Preview Socialist Planning
Socialist Planning Socialist planning played an enormous role in the economic and political historyofthetwentiethcentury.BeginningintheUSSRitspreadroundthe world.Itinfluencedeconomicinstitutionsandeconomicpolicyincountries asvariedasBulgaria,USA,China,Japan,India,PolandandFrance.How diditwork?Whatwereitsweaknessesandstrengths?Whatisitslegacyfor the twenty-first century? Now in its third edition, this textbook is fully updatedtocoverthefindingsoftheperiodsincethecollapseoftheUSSR. Itprovidesanoverviewofsocialistplanning,explainstheunderlyingtheory and its limitations, looks at its implementation in various sectors of the economy,andplacesdevelopmentsintheirhistoricalcontext.Anewchap- ter analyses how planning worked in the defence–industry complex. This book is an ideal text for undergraduate and graduate students taking coursesincomparativeeconomicsystemsandtwentieth-centuryeconomic history. michael ellman isEmeritusProfessorintheFacultyofEconomicsand Business, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands. He is the author, co- author and editor of numerous books and articles on the Soviet and Russianeconomies,ontransitioneconomics,andonSovieteconomicand political history. In 1998, he was awarded the Kondratieff prize for his ‘contributionstothedevelopmentofthesocialsciences’. Socialist Planning Thirdedition michael ellman EmeritusProfessorofEconomicSystems,withspecialreference totransitioneconomics,UniversityofAmsterdam UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learningandresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107074736 ©MichaelEllman2014 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2014 PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyClays,StIvesplc AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata Ellman,Michael. Socialistplanning/MichaelEllman.–3rdedition. pages cm Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-1-107-42732-7(pbk) 1. Economicpolicy. 2. Comparativeeconomics. 3. Marxian economics. 4. Centralplanning. 5. Communistcountries–Economicpolicy. I. Title. HD82.E52 2014 335.43–dc23 2014007594 ISBN978-1-107-07473-6Hardback ISBN978-1-107-42732-7Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication, anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. Contents Listoffigures pagevi Listoftables vii Prefacetothethirdedition ix Abbreviationsandglossary xi Importantdates xii 1 Theriseandfallofsocialistplanning 1 2 Thetraditionalmodel 22 3 Thereformprocess 52 4 Planningthedefence–industrycomplex 96 5 Investmentplanning 137 6 Planningagriculture 181 7 Planninglabourandincomes 232 8 Planningconsumption 290 9 Planninginternationaltrade 329 10 Anevaluationofsocialistplanning 362 Bibliography 396 Index 417 v Figures 5.1 Maximisinginvestmentsubjecttovariableworkereffort page139 5.2 Absorptivecapacityandtheoptimalrateofinvestment 141 5.3 Feldman’sfirsttheorem 148 5.4 Thechoiceoftechnique 161 5.5 TechnicalprogressandtheDobb–Sencriterion 164 6.1 Thecauseofunemployment:theneoclassicalview 183 6.2 Thetributemodel 187 7.1 Aplanninglabourbalance 266 8.1 Changingrelativepricestoimprovewelfare 299 8.2 Ashortage-preservingsupplycurve 308 9.1 Thepre-capitalisteconomy 330 9.2 Multilateraltrade 342 9.3 Bilateralismwiththeexportconstraintoperative 342 9.4 Bilateralismwithsoftcommodities 343 vi Tables 2.1 Timetakentoconstructthermalelectricpowerstations completedintheUSSRin1959–62 page39 3.1 Startingdateofdefenceandnon-defencelargeand mediumindustrialenterprises 86 3.2 ProportionsofmilitaryandcivilianproductioninChinese defenceindustryenterprises,1978–97(%) 88 4.1 Employmentinthedefencesector(thousands)Russian EmpireandUSSR 99 4.2 Sovietdemobilisation,1953–60 101 4.3 NumberofSovietmilitaryrepresentativesin1940 111 4.4 ThirdFrontinvestmentasaproportionofnational investment(%) 114 5.1 DivisionofSovietindustrialproductionbetween consumerandproducergoods(%) 144 5.2 DivisionofChineseindustrialproductionbetweenlight industryandheavyindustry(%) 145 5.3 Shareofconsumergoodsinindustrialoutputinselected countries(%) 146 5.4 Feldman’stwotheorems 148 5.5 Consumptionpathsonvariousinvestmentstrategies 149 5.6 Industrialimplicationsofdifferentmacroeconomic growthrates(ratesofgrowth,%p.a.) 152 5.7 Constructionperiodsandeconomicinstitutions(years) 169 5.8 ConstructionperiodsinHungaryandJapan 170 5.9 PlansandoutcomefortheKuznetskCombine 174 6.1 Stategrainextraction,USSR1928–32(milliontonnes) 195 6.2 ImprovementsintheSovietdiet,1950–76 198 6.3 CollectivisationandgrainextractionUSSRandChina (milliontonnes) 202 6.4 ProductivityofChineseagriculturallabouringrainoutput 208 6.5 PercapitafoodavailabilityinChina(kcal) 213 vii viii Listoftables 6.6 GrowthofagriculturalvalueaddedinChina,1965–2001 (realterms,%p.a.) 215 6.7 USSRstategrainreserves,1945–53(milliontonnesat1 Julyineachyear) 227 7.1 Activityrateofwomenaged40–44:international comparison(%) 234 7.2 NumberofdeathsinworkaccidentsintheUSSR 238 7.3 StateemploymentintheUSSR(millions) 245 7.4 Ratiosofincomeperheadinselectedcountries(ratioof top5percenttobottom5percent) 272 7.5 Incomedistributionstatisticsforpercapitaincomeinthe USSR,1980–90 274 7.6 EliteoccupationalgroupsintheUSSR,1970 275 7.7 Distributionofincomeinselectedcapitalistandsocialist countries 277 8.1 PersonalconsumptionplanforChinafor1981–5 292 8.2 USSRdailynutritionalnorms 295 8.3 ActualandnormativefoodconsumptionintheUSSR, andactualfoodconsumptioninselectedcountries(kgs/ head/year) 296 8.4 USSRrationalwardrobeand1962USHellerbudget clothingstocks(no.ofpieces/head) 297 8.5 Polishconsumptionstructurein1967(%) 298 8.6 Socialcost–retailpriceratios(Polandin1970) 298 8.7 Pressureandsuctioncompared 313 8.8 Socialindicatorsofstate-socialistcountries(ranksof indicators) 319 8.9 AnnualpercapitaconsumptionofpurealcoholinRussia (litres) 324 9.1 OpportunitycostofCMEAtradewithEasternEurope forUSSR(millions1984US$) 339 9.2 PricedifferencesinHungary’sexportstoCMEA countriesinthemid1960s 345 9.3 GrowthofCMEAtrade(billionsofcurrentUSdollars) 347 10.1 Globalconcentrationinfinishedproducts,2006–9 381 10.2 Globalconcentrationincomponents,2006–8 382 Abbreviations and glossary BAM Baikal–Amurrailway CC CentralCommittee(ofaCommunistParty) CMEA CouncilforMutualEconomicAssistance(sometimes knownasComecon) CPC CommunistPartyofChina CPSU CommunistPartyoftheSovietUnion EEC EuropeanEconomicCommunity(precursorofthe EuropeanUnionorEU) FDI foreigndirectinvestment FRG FederalRepublicofGermany FSU FormerSovietUnion GDR GermanDemocraticRepublic GLF GreatLeapForward Gosplan GosudarsvennayaPlanovayaKomissiya(StatePlanning Commission) GPCR GreatProletarianCulturalRevolution Gulag Glavnoeupravlenielagerei(Sovietforcedlaboursystem) NEP NewEconomicPolicy(theeconomicsystemexistinginthe USSRin1921–8) perestroika policiesofGorbachev(literally:rebuildingor reorganisation) PRC People’sRepublicofChina TVE townshipandvillageenterprise TVM townshipandvillagemine USSR UnionofSovietSocialistRepublics xi Important dates 1921GosplanestablishedinRussia 1922USSRformed 1926–30Turksibrailwaybuilt 1927–32Dneprostroidambuilt 1928–32FirstFive-YearPlaninUSSR 1929Thebreakthrough 1929–34Magnitogorsksteelplantbuilt 1930–4CollectivisationofagricultureinUSSR 1931USSRproducesitsfirsttanks 1931–3WhiteSea–BalticCanalbuilt 1931–4FamineinUSSR(peakin1933) 1933USAestablishesNationalPlanningBoard 1933Mexico’srulingpartyadoptsSix-YearPlan 1936–40Four-YearPlaninPoland 1936–40Four-YearPlaninGermany 1937–8MassstateterrorinUSSR 1939USAestablishesNationalResourcesPlanningBoard 1941–5Soviet–Germanwar 1943USNationalResourcesPlanningBoardabolished 1945NetherlandscreatesCentralPlanningOffice,withTinbergenas firstDirector 1945–9SovietcontrolestablishedoverEasternEurope 1946 French planning agency (Commissariat Général du plan) established 1947LastfamineinUSSR 1947–51Five-YearPlaninArgentina 1949CMEAestablished 1949FirstUSSRatomicbombtest 1949People’sRepublicofChina(PRC)established 1950–3KoreanWar 1950–2MassstateterrorinChina xii Importantdates xiii 1951–6FirstFive-YearPlaninIndia 1952StatePlanningCommissionestablishedinChina 1953DeathofStalin 1953UprisinginGDRsuppressedbySoviettroopsand GDRpolice 1953Chinaintroducesstatemonopolyofgrainpurchases 1953–4Strikes,demonstrationsanduprisingsintheGulag 1953FirstSoviethydrogenbombtest 1953–7FirstFive-YearPlaninChina 1955–7CollectivisationofagricultureinChina 1955–60FirstFive-YearPlaninPakistan 1956StalincriticisedatTwentiethCongressofCPSU 1956 Unrest in Poland leads to replacement of previous leadership by Gomulka, decollectivisation of collectivised part of Polish agriculture,andrecognitionofroleofCatholicChurch 1956UprisinginHungary.NewHungariangovernmentoverthrown bySoviettroops 1958GreatLeapForwardinChina 1958–62FamineinChina(peakin1960) 1959LushanConference.PengDehuaicriticisesGreatLeapForward 1960USSRwithdrawseconomicexpertsfromChina 1961EconomicPlanningBoardestablishedinSouthKorea 1962 Strikes and demonstrations in Novocherkassk (USSR) suppressedbyarmy 1962–6FirstFive-YearPlaninSouthKorea 1964FirstChineseatombombtest 1965UKadoptsindicativeNationalPlanforeconomicdevelopment 1966–8CulturalRevolutioninChina 1967FirstChinesehydrogenbombtest 1968 Czechoslovak ‘Socialism with a human face’ ended by Soviet militaryintervention 1969Sino-Sovietborderclashes 1976DeathofMaoZedong 1978VietnamjoinsCMEA 1978Chineseeconomicreforminitiated 1979–93Chinagrowsoutoftheplan 1979Sino-Vietnameseborderwar 1979–84DecollectivisationofagricultureinChina
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