Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict

411 Pages·2018·2.236 MB·English

by  Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro

SMALL WARS, BIG DATA
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S M A L L
W A R S,
B I G
D ATA
THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION
IN MODERN CONFLICT
ELI BERMAN, JOSEPH H. FELTER,
AND JACOB N. SHAPIRO
WITH VESTAL McINTYRE
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD
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Copyright © 2018 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press
41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press
6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR
press.princeton.edu
Jacket design by Amanda Weiss
All Rights Reserved
Library of Congress Control Number 2017959003
ISBN 978- 0- 691- 17707- 6
British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in Adobe Text Pro, FRAC, and Motor
Printed on acid- free paper. ∞
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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To our friends and comrades in the field, running the projects,
and standing the watch. This is for you.
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CONTENTS
Preface ix
1 Know the War You’re In 1
2 ESOC’s Motivation and Approach 23
3 Information- Centric Insurgency and
Counterinsurgency 55
4 The Information Mechanism 82
5 The Role of Development Assistance 109
6 The Role of Suppression 152
7 How Civilians Respond to Harm 184
8 Economic Conditions and Insurgent Violence 223
9 What Works? Leveraging the
Information Mechanism 262
10 The Enduring Importance of Understanding
Asymmetric Conflict 291
Notes 329
Index 377
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PREFACE
WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO READ THIS BOOK NOW
A drowned boy pulled from the Mediterranean, kidnapped schoolgirls
sitting helpless at gunpoint in a field in Nigeria, shoppers lying dead
in a market in Iraq, more than 350 killed on a Saturday afternoon in
Mogadishu, the Twin Towers spewing smoke as they collapse: these
images, now seared in our common experience, reflect the direct and
indirect effects of modern wars.
The death toll in these “small” or intrastate wars is staggering. As
we go to press, the war in Syria has claimed 400,000 lives in seven
years, the much longer war in Somalia 500,000, the younger conflict
in Yemen 10,000. Civil wars grind on in Afghanistan and Iraq while in-
surgencies continue to claim lives in India, Mali, Nigeria, Pakistan, the
Philippines, South Sudan, and many other countries around the world.
Fatalities tell only part of the story. These conflicts slow economic
growth, impoverishing entire generations.1 The effects on human
health are persistent, lasting long after the fighting has ended.2 When
you consider the brutal tactics employed by the self- proclaimed “Is-
lamic State” (IS, aka Daesh, ISIS, ISIL) and other combatants in today’s
conflicts, add the years of misery experienced by refugees and inter-
nally displaced people, and include the global terrorism that extends
from these local conflicts making almost all of humanity feel at risk,
the burden becomes overwhelming.
How do these small wars occur, and what can be done to reduce
the damage?
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