Skills for Europe's future: anticipating - Cedefop - Europa

191 Pages·2009·1.17 MB·English

Skills for
Europe’s future:
anticipating
occupational
skill needs

Cedefop

Skills for Europe’s future:
anticipating occupational
skill needs

Cedefop panorama series
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2009
The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) is
the European Union's reference centre for vocational education and training. We
provide information on and analyses of vocational education and training systems,
policies, research and practice. Cedefop was established in 1975 by Council
Regulation (EEC) No 337/75.

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Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2009
ISBN 978-92-896-0573-1
ISSN 1562-6180
© European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2009
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in the European Union
Foreword
Information on national skill needs is no longer enough: a European labour market requires
European-level information. It is in this context that Cedefop has developed the first
European skills needs forecast.
Cedefop’s analysis of skills needs, conducted in 2007, provides a consistent and
comprehensive medium-term forecast of employment and skill needs across Europe and has
made a major contribution to identifying labour-market trends. The results of these
projections of employment and skill needs across the whole of Europe (EU-25 plus Norway
and Switzerland) up to 2015 were presented for the first time in the Agora conference ‘Skills
for Europe’s future’.
Over 160 participants attended the Agora in Thessaloniki, and Cedefop was delighted to
host such a successful conference; we look forward to organising other follow-up
conferences on this important issue central to the future development of the European
economy.
The severity of the current financial crisis adds an exceptional degree of unpredictability
about the future of the world’s economy. Yet, to put Europe on the road to recovery, it is
essential to improve human capital and employability by upgrading skills. The possible
impact of the crisis is not yet reflected in the forecast. However, as soon as data are
available, scenarios have to be calculated if this crisis changes the long-term trends
substantially.
These proceedings comprise the presentations and discussions of this Agora
conference. We hope this publication will support not only policy-makers and researchers
working on skill needs, but also social partners and practitioners.

Aviana Bulgarelli
Director of Cedefop
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Acknowledgements

This publication results from proceedings of the Agora conference
‘Skills for Europe’s future’ organised by Cedefop in February 2008. It
has been prepared by the team working in Cedefop on the early
identification of skill needs project. Thanks go especially to Torsten
Dunkel, who compiled the papers, Alena Zukersteinova, for her
helpful comments, and Manfred Tessaring who supervised the
publication.
Cedefop would like to acknowledge all those who actively
contributed to the conference and this publication.

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Preface
The future development of skills – both skill needs and supply – on European labour markets
ranks high on the current policy agenda. The year 2008 was particularly marked with an
increased political awareness of anticipation of skill needs by various recent policy
documents calling for assessment of future skill requirements at both national and European
levels. Cedefop, with support of its expert network Skillsnet, has been proactive in this
respect and delivered, at the beginning of 2008, a first pan-European forecast of
occupational skill needs up to 2015 for EU-25, Norway and Switzerland. The results were
presented for the first time at Cedefop’s Agora conference ‘Skills for Europe’s future’
organised on 21-22 February 2008 in Thessaloniki.
Other objectives of the conference were to discuss the findings and future network plans
with policy-makers, social partners, practitioners and all other relevant stakeholders. It also
aimed to disseminate other information on future skill needs collected and shared among
experts and researchers in Cedefop’s network Skillsnet; these are summarised in the
proceedings.
The lack of data about what skills will be needed in the future has been a long-standing
concern in Europe. Anticipating occupational skill needs is a priority in the Maastricht and
Helsinki communiqués (European Commission, 2004; 2006), in the European Council’s
integrated guidelines for employment for 2005-08 (European Commission, 2005, guidelines
19, 20 and 24), in the Regulation (EC) No 1083/2006 on the European Social Fund (Council
of the EU, 2006), and in the social partners’ framework of actions for the lifelong learning
development of competences and qualifications (ETUC et al., 2002). The need to improve
mobility in the European labour market, to increase the skill level of the population and to
prevent skill mismatches, makes information about the future development of skills and
competences even more important.
The relaunched Lisbon agenda emphasises human capital and related investments in
education and training as important policy levers to foster growth, employment and
competitiveness, together with innovation, research and development. The 2007 Council
resolution on new skills for new jobs (Council of EU, 2007) stressed the need to anticipate
skills needs – and skills gaps – emerging in European labour markets, including explicitly by
strengthening Cedefop’s network for the early identification and forecast of skill needs
(Skillsnet). In the short term, information on emerging skills needs is crucial, especially as
several sectors already face skill shortages.
After the successful Agora conference and the favourable political momentum, Cedefop
has been actively involved in the new community initiative on ‘new skills for new jobs’. This
follows the request of the European Council (March 2008) asking the European Commission
for a comprehensive assessment of Europe’s future skills requirements up to 2020, taking
account of technological change and an ageing population, and to propose ways to
anticipate future needs. The European Commission has released the policy priorities in its
communication of 16 December 2008 on new skills for new jobs: anticipating and matching
labour-market and skills needs (European Commission, 2008).
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The present publication contains the contributions of the Agora conference ‘Skills for
Europe’s future’, the summary of the discussions in the working groups, and the conclusions
of the conference. This volume consists of six main parts: the first part deals with progress in
early identification of skill needs. Rob Wilson and Alena Zukersteinova present the results of
Cedefop’s medium-term forecast of occupational skill needs in Europe and future priorities in
this area.
The second section locates skills in a wider context. Carlo Dell’Arringa discusses the
prospects and challenges of the European labour market. Ernest Berkhout shows the effects
of ageing on European labour supply and provides insight into potential employment gaps
and the possible role of migration. Riel Miller goes beyond skills and explains the context of
banal creativity and spontaneity in a learning intensive society.
The third part covers presentations and discussions of the working group ‘Forecasting
skill needs at European Union (EU) level’ and provides detailed information on the medium-
term forecast. Rob Wilson and Ilias Livanos explain details of methods, assumptions and
results of the medium-term forecast on occupational skills. Ben Kriechel analyses the
significance of the replacement demand in the ageing society. Frank Cörvers sheds light on
the skills supply forecast to be carried out in the next phase of Cedefop’s forecasting
activities. Ben Gardiner reports the results of the working group discussion.
The fourth part comprises contributions and discussions of the working group ‘Skill
needs in sectors’. Henriette Freikamp identifies emerging qualifications in tourism. Uwe
Schumann analyses skill needs in the innovative area of nanotechnology. Martin Mulder
investigates skill needs in the agri-food sector. Donald Storrie discusses retraining and other
measures for workers displaced at restructuring. Thom ter Stege promotes EuroSkills 2008,
an event developing new and attractive ways in promoting skilled labour and educational
pathways in VET in a European context. Bernd Dworschak reports the results of the
discussion of this working group.
The fifth section deals with presentations and discussions of the working group ‘Skill
needs in enterprises’. Olga Strietska discusses enterprise surveys as a tool for skill needs
analysis. Germana Di Domenico, Ronald van Bekkum and Britta Lüdeke analyse vacancy
statistics and monitoring in public employment services and Jean-Louis Zanda discusses
measurements of recruitment difficulties in Europe. Frederike Behringer presents first
continuing vocational training surveys 3 (CVTS3) results in relation to skill needs analysis.
Mark Keese reports the results of the discussion of this working group.
Finally, the sixth part outlines key policy challenges raised by David White, Xavier Prats
Monné, Matthew Highham, Jean-François Robinet, Petri Lempinen, Slava Pevec Grm, and
Marie Panayotopoulos-Cassiotou. Last, but not least, the conclusions of the Agora
conference are drawn, and the way forward is outlined by Torsten Dunkel, Manfred
Tessaring and Alena Zukersteinova.
We hope that the conference, which resulted in the present publication, was not only a
successful event but gave impetus for further activities on the path to developing a European
system of early identification of skill needs.
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References
Council of the EU. Council Regulation (EC) No 1083/2006 of 11 July 2006 laying down
general provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social
Fund and the Cohesion Fund and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1260/1999. Official
Journal of the European Union, 31 July 2006, L 210, p. 25-78.
Council of EU. Council Resolution on the new skills for new jobs (2007/C 290/01). Official
Journal of the European Union, 4 December 2007, C 290, p. 1-3.
ETUC et al. Framework of actions for the lifelong learning development of competences and
qualifications, 28 February 2002. Brussels: ETUC – European Trade Union
Confederation, 2002.
European Commission. Maastricht communiqué on the future priorities of enhanced
European cooperation in vocational education and training (VET): review of the
Copenhagen declaration of 30 November 2002. Brussels: European Commission,
2004.
European Commission. Integrated guidelines for growth and jobs. Communication to the
spring European Council: working together for growth and jobs. Luxembourg:
Publications Office, 2005.
European Commission. The Helsinki communiqué on enhanced European cooperation in
vocational education and training: communiqué of the European Ministers of Vocational
Education and Training, the European social partners and the European Commission,
convened in Helsinki on 5 December 2006 to review the priorities and strategies of the
Copenhagen Process. Brussels: European Commission, 2006.
European Commission. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament,
the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the
Regions: new skills for new jobs anticipating and matching labour market and skills
needs. Luxembourg: Publications Office, 2008 (COM(2008) 868 final).

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Table of contents
Foreword..................................................................................................................................1
Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................2
Preface.....................................................................................................................................3

PART I – Early identification of skill needs: the work in progress.................................14
1. Medium-term European occupational skill needs............................................................15
1.1. Introduction..........................................................................................................15
1.2. Approach and methodology.................................................................................16
1.3. Key findings and implications..............................................................................17
1.3.1. Sectoral change.......................................................................................17
1.3.2. Prospects for occupations and qualifications...........................................18
1.4. Conclusions and next steps.................................................................................21
References......................................................................................................................21

PART II – Skill needs in a wider context............................................................................22
2. European labour market: prospects and challenges.......................................................23
2.1. Introduction..........................................................................................................23
2.2. Three challenges for European labour markets...................................................23
2.2.1. Globalisation and economic integration...................................................23
2.2.2. Ageing population....................................................................................25
2.2.3. Productivity gap........................................................................................26
2.3. Coping with challenges........................................................................................27
2.4. Conclusions.........................................................................................................29
References......................................................................................................................29
3. Ageing and European labour supply: potential employment gaps and migration ...........30
3.1. Introduction..........................................................................................................30
3.2. Ageing in Europe.................................................................................................30
3.2.1. The potential European employment gap................................................31
3.2.2. National differences and closing the gap.................................................33
3.2.3. Changing character of migration..............................................................35
3.2.4. Skill composition of traditional immigrants...............................................36
3.3. Conclusions.........................................................................................................38
References......................................................................................................................39
Databases.......................................................................................................................39
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