Situation and outlook series. Europe international agriculture and trade reports

126 Pages·1993·12.2 MB·English

by  Washington, D.C. : The Service : [For sale by the Supt. of Docs., U.S. G.P.O.] , Herndon, VA : ERS-NASS [distributor]

Historic, Archive Document
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KUROPE
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Economic
Research
Service
RS-93-5
September 1993 Situation and Outlook Series
oi7 e
EC Implements CAP Reform As GATT Deadline Looms
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[f realize how US consumers benefit from freer trade with Mexico
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lf find markets created as countries up environmental restrictions on farms
[ff see if you should bank on continued Russian wheat imports
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INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE AND TRADE REPORTS
KUROPE
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Economic
Research
Service
RS-93-5
Situation and Outlook Series
September 1993
Contents
BESL EYLFAA, gC Ee alc Bhd acta ee hi oe ua esd cnr viens. ab 3
General) Economic Situation aie nnn OR ee et 4
The 1993/94 Price Package and Related Measures ......... 9
EC Agricultural Support Continues To Rise ............. 11
PAPTACUICUPALLNCOMEe I the: i, meee me ne NeR er ee a Te 15
Report Coordinators:
Daniel J. Plunkett RES GeACrICULCUralel FAdCieneodemcrycmcase tetas, ss + ses +s 19
Michael T. Herlihy Commodity Market Highlights and Policy Developments
Elizabeth Jones
COPS oo day po RR oe 23
[phone]
(OT SECTE EV 1, SA: Se RE gt eee re ee ee ra 27
Contributors: SULa een. We wn aire teow ea eel Aceon Spe 30
C. Philip Brent BCCUANUEVEA Erm et ys. re ee eee pe ee 33
Michael T. Herlihy
Gr OUIGEy PANG At OS aires Foon cece hs. straits! dodo, aps Gu bettas oe 36
Joseph W. Glauber
SHEE DMEALME ON 7 mmemrer TerA eias, LPM OMhe. 655.5 ef ese nse 38
Elizabeth Jones
Travis Lee ERE — 5 5 ep oe ee BE SURE ae er 41
Mary Lisa Madell Thematic Articles
Mary Anne Normile
UssS- ECG BlanjHouse-Apreement 296) Se ee es 45
Daniel J. Plunkett
CAPshelormeimplementation ... -°. . . . 6.< 8 8 ew an wos 61)
James G. Vertrees
Julie Williamson New Agrimonetary System Promotes Free Trade Within EC. . . 56
EC Bananas Regime Comes into Force and Under Attack ... . 58
Cover Photo
Enlargement Talks Begin with EFTA Countries.......... 60
Michael T. Herlihy
EC Continues Cooperation with Neighbors to the East. ..... 63
CAP Reform Set-Aside: Environmental Friend or Foe?...... 65
Organic Farming Could Thrive Under CAP Reform ....... 67
IStrolsAPDEndixe ablessamer.e oie oka RWS mee it eke 120
ited States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits
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Acknowledgments
Appreciation is extended to the U.S. Agricultural Counselors Foreign Agricultural Service for their reviews; Sharlan Starr
and staffs of the Foreign Agricultural Service in Western for statistical assistance; Joyce Bailey, Diane Decker, Dixie
Europe and the OICD Scientific and Technical Cooperation Lee, Kent Miller, Jim Morrison, and Susan Yanero for editorial
and International Research Programs for assistance in ERS’s and design assistance. Appreciation is also extended to the
research program. The authors wish to thank Linda Bailey, Delegation of the Commission of the European Communities,
Ralph Heimlich, Robert Koopman, Ron Lord, Gene Matthia, Washington, D.C., for providing useful information for this
Nancy Morgan, Steve Neff, Pete Riley, Sara Schwartz, Shayle report.
Shagam, Shahla Shapouri, Carolyn Whitton, and Kathryn
Zeimetz of the Economic Research Service; Joe Glauber, Jim Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Sum-
Schaub, and Jim Vertrees of the Economics Analysis Staff; mary released September 16, 1993. Europe is one in a series
Kevin Brosch of the Office of the General Counsel; Gerald of six regional reports in the 1993 Situation and Outlook
Bange, James Donald, James Matthews, Ed Missiaen, James Series. Other titles are Former USSR, China, Asia and the
Nix, Jerry Rector, and David Stallings of the World Agricul- Pacific Rim, Africa and the Middle East, and Western Hemi-
tural Outlook Board; Jim Vertrees of the Office of the Under- sphere. Summaries and report text may be accessed elec-
secretary for International Affairs and Commodity Programs; tronically through the USDA CIDS system. For details, call
Charles Bertsch, Merritt Chesley, James Johnson, Leslie [phone].
O’Connor, Mary Revelt, Alan Riffkin, and others in the
Weights and Measures
The metric system of weights and measures is used in this report. The following
are conversions to the U.S. system of weights and measures:
1 hectare (ha) = 2.47109 acres
1 kilogram (kg) = 2.204622 pounds
1 liter = 1.0567 quarts
1 metric ton (mt) = 2,204.622 pounds
1 metric ton = 1.102311 short tons
1 metric ton of wheat = 36.7437 bushels
1 metric ton of corn = 39.368 bushels
1 metric ton of barley = 45.9296 bushels
The July 1993 exchange rate of $1.1341 per ECU is used in this report. The
"switchover coefficient" of 1.207509 is used to convert policy prices and
amounts into market ECUs.
Europe/RS-93-5/September 1993
Summary
The European Community (EC) is implementing its Common CAP Reform will lower feed prices for livestock producers.
Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reform, changing the way domes- With lower feed costs, consumer prices for pork and poultry
tic support is provided to EC farmers. An agreement on should fall, increasing consumption. Higher pork and poultry
agriculture in the Uruguay Round of the GATT would add production in 1993 should boost subsidized exports that com-
international disciplines on EC agriculture. The Blair House pete with U.S. products. Beef support prices will fall 15
Agreement, reached last November by the United States and percent by 1996. Beef production is expected to drop slightly
the EC, could set the stage for a GATT agreement in Decem- in 1993, although exports and stocks should each be over a
ber. million tons. EC dairy exports are expected to fall slightly
for products other than cheese in 1993. The reform process
CAP Reform, scheduled to be implemented over 3 years, in the dairy sector has avoided major changes thus far.
affects most agricultural sectors, with the biggest change in
cereals, where support prices will be cut 33 percent during Lower CAP prices, combined with expected reductions in
the period. CAP Reform placed new administrative burdens arable crop production, could contribute to a decline in EC
on farmers, member state governments, and the EC Commis- farm income in 1993. However, significantly higher direct
sion. The Reform is administered through an EC-wide Inte- payments and reduced input costs for livestock producers will
grated Administrative Control System to combat fraud. offset all or part of the lower value of crop production.
Since initial agreement on CAP Reform in May 1992, a The EC agricultural budget continues to climb and is expected
number of rules have been modified, including an increase in to exceed the official spending "guideline" in either 1993 or
the payment rate on set-aside land, a reduction in the non-ro- 1994. Compensation payments instituted under CAP Reform,
tational set-aside rate, and an expansion of the dairy quota. changes in the price package, and added costs due to currency
volatility are pushing up spending while slower economic
The Blair House Agreement establishes a common U.S.-EC growth has limited the guideline.
position on reducing support to agriculture and cutting export
subsidies in the agriculture negotiations of the Uruguay EC gross domestic product is expected to contract slightly in
Round. Some key Uruguay Round issues, principally those 1993, with only a weak recovery in 1994. Unemployment
relating to market access, must still be settled. The Agreement has returned to double-digit levels. In August, the EC wid-
also contains side accords that resolve U.S.-EC disputes on ened the permitted fluctuation in the currencies of the Ex-
oilseeds, corn gluten feed, malted barley sprouts, and U.S. change Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary
corm and sorghum exports to Spain. System. The change may result in lower interest rates and
improved economic performance.
US. agricultural exports to the EC are forecast to increase in
fiscal 1993 due to more sales of oilseeds and products. U.S. Negotiations on EC membership with Austria, Finland, Swe-
imports from the EC are growing more rapidly than exports, den, and Norway started earlier this year, with support for
led by high-value products. In fiscal 1992, U.S. exports arctic and Alpine farmers the main agriculture issue. Acces-
totaled $7.2 billion, compared with imports of $4.7 billion. sion could occur as early as 1995.
EC crop production is expected to decline in 1993. Produc- The EC has completed trade agreements with a number of
tion of wheat and coarse grains will fall only slightly, despite countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and is nego-
CAP Reform price cuts and the set-aside program. Smaller tiating similar agreements with Russia and other countries of
cereal area will be partially offset by the recovery of yields the former Soviet Union. Access for CEE agricultural prod-
from last year’s drought-depressed levels. As for oilseeds, ucts into the EC market remains limited despite the trade
changing competitive conditions and poor weather at planting agreements.
time should reduce EC output. Demand for oilseeds and meal
may fall due to lower grain prices, despite higher pork and After 35 years, the EC finally established a common market
poultry production. Sugar production is expected to return in bananas with an import quota of 2 million tons. The regime
to normal levels after a record crop in 1992. Reform in the offers free trade within the Community, but worsens import
sugar sector was put off for another year. access in a number of countries, particularly Germany. The
new system has led to legal challenges both within the EC
and from Latin American producers.
Europe/RS-93-5/September 1993
General Economic Situation
Caught in a structural and cyclical downturn, the economy of the European Community (EC) is
expected to contract in 1993, with only a weak recovery forecast for 1994. In most EC
member states, unemployment is at double-digit levels, much higher than in the United States
or Japan. In August 1993, the EC significantly weakened its exchange rate mechanism in
response to unrelenting speculative pressure. [Daniel J. Plunkett and C. Philip Brent]
The macroeconomic situation in the European Community Double-Digit Unemployment Returns to the EC
(EC) is characterized by a prolonged slowdown in growth,
Unemployment in the EC has been climbing for the past 5
high unemployment, declining investment, and currency mar-
years, and is expected to peak at 12.2 percent in the first half
ket instability. After 4 years of slowing growth rates, EC
of 1994. Unemployment averaged 8.7 percent between 1989
gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract 0.4
and 1991, after ranging between 10 and 11 percent from 1983
percent in 1993, before posting a weak recovery of 1.8 percent
to 1988. In 1992, EC unemployment returned to double-digit
in 1994 (table 1.1). An EC survey points to a drop in industrial
levels. By comparison, unemployment for 1992 was 7.4
investment in 1993, which, combined with low business and
percent in the United States and 2.2 percent in Japan. By
consumer confidence, will hamper economic growth in 1994
1994, the number of unemployed workers in the EC as a
and beyond. This outlook could be improved somewhat by
whole is expected to reach almost 18 million people, up 30
the EC’s decision on August 2, 1993, to widen the permitted
percent from 1991. The number of unemployed in Germany
fluctuation in the currencies of the Exchange Rate Mechanism
is forecast to be up 70 percent from 1991, and in Belgium,
(ERM) of the European Monetary System.
Greece, and Luxembourg, up over 40 percent. Agriculture is
one of the sectors in which employment is declining, along
The economic slowdown in Germany, which accounts for
with defense, government employment, mining, shipbuilding,
about one-third of EC GDP, has been worsened by sluggish
and steel. One reason for the poor outlook for job growth is
growth in the United States and Japan. German GDP is
that business investment is being aimed at rationalizing pro-
forecast to grow 1.4 percent in 1994 after contracting nearly
duction structures, i.e. streamlining, rather than expanding
2 percent in 1993. Germany’s economic performance during
capacity.
first quarter 1993 was the worst since the 1960s. Demand
was off significantly for nearly every major industry except
The anticipated higher unemployment will further limit con-
housing construction, and manufacturing output declined al-
sumer spending. What makes the situation even worse is that
most 12 percent from the first quarter of 1992.
long-term unemployment is increasing throughout the EC. In
1991, 45 percent of the EC unemployed had been without
The primary causes of the German recession are monetary
work for at least a year, compared with only 6 percent in the
and fiscal austerity in the wake of the huge expenditure ne-
United States and 17 percent in Japan. In addition, over half
cessitated by German unification. It is widely believed that
of all the jobs created in the EC from 1973 to 1991 were in
Germany still suffers from "inflation angst" due to memories
the public sector. In the United States and Japan, the private
of the hyperinflation of the 1920s, and is willing to sacrifice
sector accounted for over 80 percent of all jobs created in that
short-term economic growth to control inflation. The recent
span.
decision to widen the ERM bands should lead to an effective
appreciation of the Deutschmark within the ERM, and could
EC economies are still restructuring in response to the Single
harm German exports to other EC members in the short term.
Market, a process that started with the mergers and layoffs of
the late 1980s. An OECD report suggests that the "natural"
After more than 2 years of recession, economic growth re-
rate of unemployment in the EC may be as high as 8 percent,
sumed in the United Kingdom in 1993, with a 3-percent
meaning that the economic structure within the EC will keep
increase forecast for 1994. Suspending participation in the
8 percent of the labor force unemployed regardless of cyclical
ERM in September 1992 allowed the U.K. to loosen monetary
developments. One of the main barriers to new employment
policy and cut interest rates. This improved business confi-
is the high accompanying costs (pensions, health benefits,
dence and export performance as the pound depreciated. The
etc.) required by the EC member states, which traditionally
recovery of the U.K. economy was a factor in the decision of
have had generous social policies. As a result, the use of
its EC partners to weaken the ERM. The other major EC
temporary contracts for new workers is on the rise. Another
economies, France and Italy, also are expected to move back
key structural phenomenon is that companies are improving
into the positive growth column in 1994,
productivity by eliminating personnel and using computers
and telecommunications more efficiently. However, it can be
costly for firms to lay off workers; the average EC severance
pay is 22 weeks per worker.
, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Por-
tugal, and Spain remain within the ERM as of August 1993. Greece, Italy,
and the United Kingdom operate currencies that float outside the ERM. The
ERM was set up in 1979.
Europe/RS-93-5/September 1993
Table 1.1: Economic indicators for Western Europe, 1992-94
GDP 1/ Consumption 2/ Unemployment Unemployed workers 3/ Trade balance
1992 1993 1994} 1992 1993 1994] 1992 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994; 1992 1993 1994
Percent change Percent change Rate 4/ Thousands Billion dollars
EC Wieh-0.4.c: 1.6 oP AeeottOde ft. Gute, 17 14,692 17,107, 17,912 -14.3 6 Oat
Belgium 5/ O Se On /amalie Ae eee ObletO.3 11.9 12.9 436 507 552 ie. 0.7 0.4
Denmark i On/mue.G Ae eSs.O | til tet 12,4 318 357 338 The 6.6 6.1
France Wasi SOR aks} lear ON Onlm Olan ile2 2,554 2,807 3,048 1.8 1.5 1.0
Germany 20 -19 1.4 Ws} OS) (Oh Cote Weel Abas! 2,366 3,113 3,500 31.7 32.5 32.3
Greece eae teeliel 2 Pee Used {0s} 3)a7/ Onl O!OmmlalnO 311 412 458 “11.5 SH OhL® cle rg
Ireland Zula 2 OO 4 Sha PL ee || are aes 233 271 281 6.1 5.6 5.6
Italy O19 - OF 227, (Oe Onl mee On| eal O. 71 0;9 2,549 2,571 2,605 2.5 6.3 7.9
Luxembourg] 2.4 1.2 1.8 3.1 19 24 dey Ue) ks} 3 4 4 NA NA NA
Netherlands 15 -03 1.4 (120m O(a lO hte} tafe ee} 482 608 670 8.7 9.4
Portugal 4m BOlG 2 8 1.9 44 33 3.0 40 4.7 193 228 258 -8.9 -9.5
Spain i Oje- OG means: 2 Ae-Os/Me OG 40 ec. Dele. 2,789 3,434 3,429 -25.8
U.K. -0.6 1.8 2.9 O22 22 OW O3/eun 0:4 7 3¥ -42 Pde[2 V E 22] 5) -24.5
EFTA 6/ -0.4 -0.6 Wall O07 -13 0.8 7.5 SISiee, 223 1,211.6 ies
Austria 1.5 -0.6 1.5 2.2 OmemnleS 37 48 48 136 178 178 -7.6
Finland -3.5 0.0 Wall 5.3 -4.0 -0.5 328 414 415 5.8
Iceland -3.3 -1.8 0.1 3.5 -4.3 -1.5 5.3 4 U 8 0.0
Norway 3.3 62) 2.9 Wet leh H@ 5.7 126 122 115 She,
Sweden Chi faZA -2.0 1.4 19 -39 -03 7.3 235 317 319 8.6
Switzerland -0.6 -0.5 1.6 “O'S -O-Onueal .O 4.6 89 165 159 3.2
W. Europe 0.9 -0.4 1.8 ips NOP Alay 15,810 18,330 19,128
United States Pei vata) shoal Pee ALTE 73h) 9,393 8,939 8,417
1,448
Japan ees 0) ele} 16m tL OMRtS:.4 1,665 1,753
NA= not applicable. Data for 1993 and 1994 are projections.
1/ Gross domestic product.
2/ Real private consumption.
3/ Estimated using OECD labor force growth rates.
4/ Percent of labor force.
5/ Trade balance includes Luxembourg.
6/ European Free Trade Association. Liechtenstein not available.
Sources: OECD Economic Outlook, No. 53, June 1993; for inflation, DRI World Markets Report, June 1993.
Note: For historical macroeconomic data, see appendix tables 1 through 8.
Inflation To Slow Further by 1994 German Interest Rate Policy of Concern to
The general decline in EC inflation over the past 2 years is All of Europe
forecast to continue into 1994 as expected tight monetary _In recent years, interest rate policy has attracted a great deal
policies, the slowdown in economic growth, and decreased _ of attention in the EC, given its link to exchange rate policy.
labor clout in the face of high unemployment combine to hold One school of thought maintains that German rates were held
down prices. Inflation is expected to fall to an estimated 3.6 —_h igh by concerns about inflation stemming from strong wage
percent in 1993 and remain stable in 1994. growth and bigger budget deficits after unification. To main-
tain the prescribed currency parities within the ERM, other
Inflation is one area where divergence is greatest in the EC, _ countries were forced to keep their interest rates higher than
although the gap is narrowing. Countries with traditionally _ they desired, stifling economic growth.
high inflation, such as Greece and Portugal, are progressively
bringing their inflation rates more in line with the rest of the On the other hand, the German central bank (Bundesbank)
EC. In 1994, EC inflation rates are expected to vary froma _ argues that other countries did not make the difficult political
low of 2 percent in Denmark to nearly 12 percent in Greece. _ decisions to cut spending and curb inflation needed to main-
tain the value of their currencies. Thus, high interest rates in
Germany’s ERM partner countries were necessary to prevent
the capital flows that would have forced devaluations.
5
Europe/RS-93-5/September 1993
Germany’s partners in the ERM pressured the Bundesbank to The main effect of the broader band is to weaken the link
make significant interest rate cuts. Since the initial currency between the interest rate policy of the Bundesbank and the
crisis in September 1992, the Bundesbank has cut interest exchange rate market. This should allow other countries
rates several times, citing improved discipline in money sup- greater freedom to set their interest rates according to domestic
ply growth and inflation (figure 1.1). The incremental Ger- economic conditions. Many EC countries are expected to
man cuts, which were quickly matched by other countries in lower their interest rates to stimulate higher growth. The new
the EC and European Free Trade Association (EFTA), were ERM has broad implications for the EC’s reformed agrimone-
not enough to satisfy Germany’s ERM partners, who were tary system (see "New Agrimonetary System Promotes Free
more concerned with creating jobs and economic growth Trade Within EC"). The EC finance ministers pledged to
through lower interest rates than with reducing inflation below reinstitute the narrower bands of the ERM by January 1, 1994,
its already acceptable levels. to stay on the schedule for Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU) set by the Maastricht Treaty.
EC Finance Ministers Widen ERM Band
To 15 Percent Since the initial currency crisis of September 1992, the U.S.
dollar has appreciated against most European currencies, with
By the end of July 1993, speculative pressure on the French
the economic recovery in the United States a principal con-
franc and other currencies was severely straining the ERM.
tributing factor. The latest ERM crisis, coupled with expec-
Intervention in the currency markets by the French and Ger-
tations of a lower differential between U.S. and European
man central banks failed to maintain the franc above its ERM
interest rates, could cause the dollar to appreciate even further
floor. In a single day, July 30, the EC central banks spent an
against the ECU (figure 1.2). In late July 1993, the dollar
estimated 30 billion DM ($50 billion) propping up weak
closed at 1.73 DM, a 2-year high.
currencies.
Policy Choices Constrained by Maastricht
Finally, EC finance ministers agreed on August 2 to widen
the band of permitted fluctuation within the ERM to 15 percent In trying to break out of recession, EC member states are
above or below bilateral parity rates. Previously, exchange constrained by the targets for economic convergence agreed
rate fluctuation was limited to 2.25 percent above or below, to in the Maastricht Treaty. Maastricht, signed in February
except in Portugal and Spain, which were permitted 6 percent 1992 in the Dutch town of that name and ratified by all EC
fluctuation. Germany and the Netherlands have a separate member states (pending a constitutional challenge in Ger-
agreement that their bilateral rate will only fluctuate 2.25 many), outlines the criteria considered necessary for member
percent up or down. States to move to EMU with its goals of an EC central bank
and a single currency.
Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2
Short-Term Interest Rates U.S./EC
in the Major OECD Countries Exchange Rate
Percent p Dollars per European Currency Unit
0 aul
1990 1991 1992 1993
—— Germany -=- France Se UK.
She) 1 1 = 1 elt i lah ae SES See i
3/92 6/92 9/92 12/92 3/93 6/93
— Italy Sa AOKSY, —— Japan
A lower figure implies
1993 is projected. a stronger dollar.
Source: OECD, June 1993. Sources: EC Commission; Federal Reserve.
Europe/RS-93-5/September 1993