Situation and outlook report

114 Pages·1995·6.2 MB·English

by  United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service

Archive Document
Historic,
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

0^^
and
Fruit
ited States
Departmentof
I
Agriculture Tree Nuts
Economic
Research
Service
RS-274
September 1995 Situation and
Outlook Report
Yearbook Issue

and Tree Nuts
Fruit
Situation and Outlook Report
September 995
1
FTS-274
Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook. Commercial Agriculture Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture, September 1995. FTS-274.
Contents
Page
Summary
3
ListofTables 5
Situation Coordinator
DianeBertelsen
Voice(202) 219-0887 FAX [phone]
Principal Contributors
DianeBertelsen
Agnes Perez
Susan Pollack
BrendaToland
Editor
Martha Evans
Designand Layout
WynnicePointer-Napper
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Sum- Summaries and text of reports may be accessed electroni-
mary released September 27, 1995. The summary of the cally. For details, call ERS Customer Service at (202) 219-
next Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook is sched- 0515. The Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook is
uled for release on November 14, 1995. published twice a year and supplemented by a yearbook.
See back cover for subscription information.
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2 FruitandTree Nuts/FTS-274/September1995
—
Summary
FruitProduction Value Up In 1994 A large crop and record-high almond supplies pressured
grower prices and the 1994/95 season-averageprice
Tiinnhet1h9fe9a4tr,omtasllviavglahutleluyeofhoifUg.hnSeo.rncftiihrtuarinutsptrhfoerudiputrcitwoiarosnyebaworal.sstAe$r8e,sd4m0ab5lylbaigla4li-inpoenr- dmroonpdpepdro3d6ucpteirocnenftelflr4ompetrhceenptr,iotroy$e8a9r4. mTihlleiovna.luAe orfelaal--
tively small decrease in walnut production, along with high
centrise in the valueofcitrus fruit, to $2,245 billion. The
stocks, brought supplies up from the yearearlierand drove
value ofRorida*s 1993/94 citrus output rose nearly 6 per-
down average grower prices 29 percent. The value ofwal-
cent to $1,400 billion and California's to nearly $746 mil-
lion. Little change in California citrus ou^ut, a decline in nut production—dropped 34 percent in 1994. Pecan value de
clined the least only 3 percent and less than $7 million
Florida, and higher prices for orangejuice, keptgrower
as output dropped and prices rose. Of the six major tree
prices above the yearearlier through mostof 1994. The
nuts produced in the United States, only the value ofmaca-
season-averageon-free price forFloridaprocessing oranges
rose to $3.98 a box (4.42 cents apound) in 1993/94 from damia nut production rose in 1994 as higherprices andout-
put raised the value 8 percent.
$3.46 (3.84 cents a pound) the yearbefore, while the price
offresh-maiketCalifornia oranges rose to $8.14 from $7.80
perbox (to 10.9 from 10.4 cents a pound.) U.S. free nutconsumption continued a 4-year upward trend
in 1994/95, increasing slightly from the yearearlier, to 2.27
pounds perperson (shelled basis). Almond consumption
Processedorange prices are likely to berelatively low over
the next several years as new orange frees, planted since rose to 0.55 pounds and walnut consumption climbed to
0.47 pounds. Reduced output and higherprices dropped pe-
the last major Florida freeze in December 1989, come into
can consumption from 0.53 pounds to 0.48. Lower produc-
production. Florida had 562,800 acres ofbearing-age or-
tion dropped hazelnut consumption, but pistachio consump-
ange trees in 1994/95, up 41 percentsince 1989/90. Total
tion was stable. Tree nut consumption has risen in the
citrus acreage in the United States has risen from a low of
1990s, averaging 2.26 pounds, up from 2.19 during the
818,900 acres in 1985/86 to 1,052,630 acres in 1994/95,
1980's. Hazelnut, pistachio, and macadamia nut consump-
with Florida oranges providing most ofthe increase.
tion has increased, almond consumption remained about the
— same, and walnut and pecan consumption declined.
Noncifrus area has been more stable than cifrus 2.032 mil-
lion acres ofbearing-age frees in 1994, compared with
1.949 million in 1991 and 2.002 in 1987—as has produc- RecordFresh Fruit Consumption
tion. The value ofnoncitrus fruitproduction rose to $6,159 Americans consumed more than 100 pounds offresh-mar-
billion in 1994, from $6,133 billion the prior year. A de- ket fruitper person in 1994, anotherrecord.' Noncitrus
cline in the value of the grape crop was offset mainly by fruit consumption rose slightly from less than 74 pounds in
higher values of strawberries and apples. The value ofthe 1993 to 75.65, while fresh citrus fruit consumption declined
grapecrop dropped about $160 million in 1994. In con- to 24.93 pounds per person from a 10-year high ofnearly
trast, more output and higher prices boosted the strawberry 26 pounds in 1993.
valueby $153 million, while the value ofapple production
rose $63 million due to higheroutputand stableprices. California marketed fewer fresh oranges in 1994, and con-
sumption dropped to 13.07 pounds per person from more
Value of Tree NutProduction Slips In 1994, than 14 pounds the yearbefore. Percapita con sumption of
Production Reaches a Record fresh-market grapefruit declined due to population growth,
a reduction in Florida output, and strong export demand,
U.S. free nut production rose to a record 1.1 billion pounds
but remained above 6 pounds per person.
(shelled basis) in 1994/95, up 13 percent from 1993/94, re-
flecting a large increase in the almond crop and a moderate
Most nonciu-us fruit posted consumption gains in 1994. Ba-
rise in the macadamia crop. Hazelnuts, pecans, walnuts,
nanas remained Americans favorite fresh fruit in 1994, as
and pistachios all registered smallercrops. Tree nut produc-
consumption rose to a record 28.06 pounds perperson from
tion has increased consistently over the last 4 years, due
less than 27 pounds the year earlier. Plentiful supplies and
mostly to higher almond production.
stable prices boosted fresh-marketapple consumption to
19.55 pounds perperson, the highest since 1990.
The 1994/95 crop year marked a downturn in a 7-year
trend ofincreasing treenutoutput value. The value ofU.S.
Increased imports offresh-market grapes pushed consump-
tree nut production dropped to $1,512 billion, down 12 per-
tion up 4 percent, to 7.33 pounds in 1994. California's
cent from 1993/94. Most treenuts registeredreductions.
Significant declines in hazelnut, pecan, and pistachio nut enormous 1994 str—awberry crop resulted in record-high
fresh consumption 4 pounds perperson. Consumption of
production in 1994/95 combined with reduced grower
prices for almonds and walnuts to drive down the total fresh-marketpears rose slightly to 3.48 pounds, as the large
croppressured prices, stimulated exports, and curtailed im-
value. Growerprice increases forpecans, hazelnuts, and pis-
ports.
tachios were not enough to offset the impacts ofreduced
output on production value.
' Consumptionestimatesincludecitrusfruitharvestedin 1993/94andnon
citrusfruitharvestedin1994.
FruitandTree Nuts/FTS-274/September1995 3
Per capita consumption offresh-maricetpeaches and nectar- year changes in noncitrus juice consumption are likely over-
ines fell about 10 percent in 1994 to 5.46 pounds, from al- stated because carryover stock data are not available.
most 6 pounds the yearbefore. Although California had
good peach and nectarinecrops, U.S. fresh utilization was Fruit Consumption Climb Curtailed
down becauseof freeze-reduced output in some eastern
Total U.S. fruitconsumption receded to 276.5 pounds per
States. In addition, peach and nectarine exports were re- person (fresh-weight equivalent) in 1994, from 278.2
cord high in 1994, reducing domestic availability. Avoca- pounds the prior year. Consumption ofnoncitrus fruitde-
dos and kiwifruit also registered declines in percapita
clined, while citrus consumption rose slightly. In order to
consumption. Reduced California output that was not fully estimate total fruit consumption, processed products were
offset by increased imports caused the declines. converted to their equivalent fresh weight, which is an ap-
proximation ofthe quantity of whole fruit used to make the
Canned Fruit: Total consumption ofnine canned fruits
product.
rose slightly in 1994 to 18.33 pounds perperson (product-
weight basis) from less than 18 pounds the year earlier. Noncitrus fruit accounted for about 60 percent oftotal
Large crops harvested in 1994 raised the processing use (fresh and processed) fruit consumption and about 75 per-
aanndd pcrounnseusm.ptHioowneovfera,pprleesd,ucaepdridcootmse,scthiecrroiuetsp,upteaarnsd, ipml-ums cent of fresh consumption. Processed fruit consump—tion is
almost evenly divided between citrus and noncitrus in
ports lowered consumption ofcanned olives, peaches, and 1994, 90 pounds ofcitrus fruit were consumed in processed
pineapples. Changes in canned fruit inventories have not forms (mostlyjuice) and 86*pounds of nonciffus fruit.
been accounted for since 1988 when publication ofcarry-
overdata ceased.
Total ciuus fruit consumption rose less than 1 pound, to
115 pounds per person in 1994 as fresh use declined to
Frozen Fruit: Consumption was stable in 1994. Estimates 24.9 pounds and processed climbed to 90 pounds. Con-
offour types of frozen fruit and four types ofberries to- sumption ofprocessed oranges reached 75 pounds per per-
taled 3.4 pounds (frozen-weight basis) per person. In- son, comprising about two-thirds ofall citrus consumed.
creased consumption of frozen blueberries, apricots, and
Consumption of processed grapefruit decreased to 8.80
peaches was offset by reduced strawberry, blackberry, ap- pounds and of fresh-market grapefruit to 6.04 pounds per
ple, and cherry consumption. Frozen berry consumption person. Total consumption ofother citrus fruits rose: lem-
dropped below 2 pounds per person, as a 4-percent decline ons to 7.46 pounds, tangerines and tangelos to 3.43 pounds,
in frozen strawberries was not offset by a4-percent gain and limes to 1.21 pounds per person.
for frozen blueberries.
Noncitrus fruitconsumption declined more than 2 pounds
Dried Fruit: Consumption totaled 3.12 pounds perperson per person in 1994 to 161.5 pounds (fresh-weight equiva-
(dry basis) in 1994/95, a 4-percent decrease from the year lent). Total apple consumption rose slightly, to 49.3
earlier. Raisin consumption declined to 1.72 from 1.86 pounds, but total grape consumption dropped more than 3
pounds in the face ofreduced domestic shipments. Prune pounds to 41.6. Although fresh grape consumption was up
consumption rose to 0.71 pounds due to increased produc- in 1994, most grapes areconsumed in processed forms
tion. (mainly juice, wine, and raisins) and processed use was
down. Processed grape consumption dropped to 34.3
Fruit Juice: Consumption ofeight fruitjuices totaled 8.72 pounds from 37.9 pounds in 1993. The volume ofU.S.
single-strength gallons perperson in 1994/95, up from 8.60 grapes used for wine andjuice declined in 1994 and, al-
gallons the prior year. Citrusjuices totaled 6.27 gallons, though wine imports rose, consumption of wine grapes de-
up almost 5 percent from 1993/94. Orangejuice consump- clined to 22.5 pounds. Reduced grapejuice imports helped
tion rose to 5.44 gallons, a 10-year high, as Florida produc- lower the consumption ofgrapes used forjuice to 3.21
tion posted big gains. pounds. A decline in domestic raisin shipments brought
consumption down from 8.75 to 8.28 pounds.
Applejuice consumption was nearly unchanged at 1.77 gal-
lons, while consumption ofgrapejuice and pineapplejuice Fruit consumption is not likely to post a substantial gain in
dechned. Higher domestic production ofapplejuice almost
1995. Although near-record citrus output continues to pres-
compensated for a dip in imports. Grapejuice consump- sure prices and boost orangejuice consumption, noncitrus
tmieosntiwcasoudtpouwtnde1c7lipneerdc.enAt tdor0o.p29ingpailnleonapapsleimjpuiocretsimapnodrtdso,- pfrourittdperomdauncdtihoinghw.asCadloiwfonrniinassotomneefrwueisttse,rpneaSrtsa,teasnadnsdtreaxw--
coupled with low Hawaiian production, resulted in a 17 per- berries were damaged by storms early in 1995, bringing
cent decline in consumption, to 0.35 gallon per person. shipments down and prices up from the prior year. Fresh-
market apple consumption will probably decline in 1995
USDA'sjuice consumption estimates are based on the quan- due to a smaller Washington crop and higher export de-
tities offruit used to makejuice and are not likely to match mand stemming in part from reduced European apple pro-
estimates based on retail sales data. After initial processing, duction. Export demand for fresh oranges and grapefruit
juices can be blended, used in other products, and repack- has also been strong and will likely continue, leaving less
aged before reaching the market. USDA methodology does ofthe swelling supplies for domestic consumption.
not distinguish final product forms. In addition, year-to-
4 FruitandTree Nuts/FTS-274/September 1995
List of Tables
General
Page
A- 1. Bearing acreageforfruitsandtreenuts,United States, 1975 todate 10
A- 2. Utilizedproductionandvalueofproductionofcitrusandnoncitrusfruit.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 10
A- 3. Bearingacreageforselectedcitrusandnoncitrusfruit.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 11
A- 4. TotalctMnmercialproductionforselectedcitrusandnoncitrusfruit,United States 1975todate 12
A- 5. Averagepriceindexesforfruit.UnitedStates, 1975todate 13
A- 6. Annualaverageretailpricesforselectedfreshfruit.United States, 1980todate 13
NONCITRUS FRUIT
General:
B-1. Utilizationofnoncitrusfruitproduction, and value.UnitedStates, 1975todate 14
B-2. Fruit,frozen:Commercialpack.Unites States, 1975 todate 15
B-3. Fruit,dried: Production(drybasis),California, 1975 todate 16
Apples:
B-4. Apples:Production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice,United States, 1975 todate 16
B-5. Apples,fresh:MontWypricesreceivedbygrowers.UnitedStates, 1975todate 17
B-6. Apples,RedDelicious, fresh: Monthlyretailprices.UnitedStates, 1980todate 17
B-7. Apples:Processedutilizationandseason-averagegrowerprice.United States, 1975 todate 18
Apricots:
B-8. Apricots:Production,utilization, andseason-averagegrowerprice,UnitedStates, 1975 todate 18
Avocados:
B-9. Avocados: Production,seasonaveragegrowerprice,andvalue,bystate, 1975/76todate 19
Bananas:
B-10. Bananas:Numberoffarms, acreage,production,price,andvalue,Hawaii, 1975todate 19
Cherries:
B-11. Cherries,sweet: F*roduction,utilization, andseason-averagegrowerprice,United States, 1975todate 20
B-12. Cherries,tart: Production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice,UnitedStates, 1975 todate 20
Figs:
B-13. Figs: Production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice,California, 1975 todate 21
Grapes:
B-14. Grapes: Production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 21
B-15. Grapes: Production, andseason-averagegrowerprice,California, 1975 todate 22
B-16. Grapes: Processedutilizationand season-averagegrowerprice,United States, 1975 todate 22
_
Guavas:
B-17. Guavas:Totalprocessed,farmproduction,priceandvalue,Hawaii, 1975 todate 23
Kiwifruit:
B-18. Kiwifiruit: Acreage,production,season-averagegrowerprice, andvalue,California, 1980todate 23
Mangos:
B-19. Mangos: Acreage,bearing trees,production, season-averagegrowerprices,andvalue,Florida 1975 todate ... 24
Nectarines:
B-20. Nectarines:Production,utilization,and season-averagegrowerprice,California, 1975 todate 24
FruitandTree Nuts/FTS-274/September1995 5
Olives:
B-21. Olives: Bearingacreage,production,utilization,season-averagegrowerprice,and value,
California, 1975 todate 25
Papayas:
B-22. Papayas:Acreage,yieldperacre,production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice, Hawaii,
1975 todate 25
Peaches:
B-23. Peaches: Production,utilization,andseason-averagegrowerprice.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 26
B-24. Peaches, fresh: Monthlypricesreceived bygrowers.United States, 1975 todate 26
B-25. Peaches: Processed utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 27
Pears:
B-26. Allpears:Production,utilization,and season-averagegrowerprice.UnitedStates, 1975 todate 27
B-27. Bartlettpears: Production,utilization, and season-averagegrowerprice.United States, 1975 todate 28
B-28. Pears:Monthlypricesreceivedbygrowers.United States, 1975 todate 28
Pineapples:
B-29. Pineapples: Numberoffarms,acreage,production,disposition,price,andvalue,Hawaii, 1975 todate 29
Plumsand prunes:
B-30. Plums:Acreage,production, season-averagegrowerprice, andvalue,California, 1975 todate 29
B-31. Prunes(driedbasis): Acreage,production, season-averagegrowerprice,and value,California, 1975 todate ... 30
B-32. Prunesandplums: Production, utilization,and season-averagegrowerprice,4 states, 1975 todate 30
CITRUS FRUIT
Grapefruit:
C-1. Grapefruit: Bearing acreage andyield peracre, by state, 1975/76todate 31
C-2. Grapefruit: Productionby state, 1975/76todate 31
C-3. Grapefruit: Utilizationofproduction,bystate, 1975/76 todate 32
C-4. Grapefruit:Equivalent-on-treereturns,bystate, 1975/76 todate 32
C-5. Allgrapefruit: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers, Arizona, 1975/76todate 33
C-6. Allgrapefruit: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers, California, 1975/76todate 33
C-7. Allgrapefruit: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers, Florida, 1975/76todate 34
C-8. Allgrapefruit: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers,Texas, 1975/76todate 34
C-9. Allgrapefruit: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers, United States, 1975/76 todate 35
C-10. Grapefruitprocessed,Florida, 1975/76todate 35
C-11. Cannedgrapefruitjuice: Canners' stocks,pack,supplies,andmovement,Florida, 1975/76todate 36
C-12. Frozenconcentrated grapefruitjuice: Canners' stocks,pack,supplies, andmovement, Florida,
1975/76todate 36
Lemons:
C-13. Lemons: Acreage,yieldperacre, andproduction,bystate, 1975/76todate 37
C-14. Lemons: Utilizationofproduction,by state, 1975/76 todate 37
C-15. Alllemons: Equivalent-on-treereturns,bystate, 1975/76todate 38
C-16. Alllemons: Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceived bygrowers,Arizona, 1975/76todate 38
C-17. Alllemons:Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers,California, 1975/76todate 38
C-18. Alllemons:Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers.United States, 1975/76todate 39
Limes:
C-19. Limes: Acreage,yieldperacre,production,utilization,season-averagegrowerprice, andvalue,Florida,
1975/76todate 39
Oranges:
C-20. Oranges: Bearing acreageand yieldperacre,bystate, 1975/76 todate 40
C-21. Oranges: Production,bystate, 1975/76todate 40
C-22. Oranges: Utilizationofproduction,by state, 1975/76todate 41
C-23. Alloranges:Equivalent-on-treereturns,bystate, 1975/76todate 41
C-24. Alloranges:Monthlyequivalent-on-treereturnsreceivedbygrowers,Arizona, 1975/76todate 42
FruitandTreeNuts/FTS-274/September1995