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466 Pages·2022·18.517 MB·English
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Simulation and Wargaming Simulation and Wargaming Edited by Charles Turnitsa Regent University Virginia Beach, USA Curtis Blais Naval Postgraduate School MOVES Institute Monterey, USA Andreas Tolk The MITRE Corporation Charlottesville, USA This edition first published 2022 © 2022 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http:// www.wiley.com/go/permissions. The right of Charles Turnitsa, Curtis Blais, and Andreas Tolk to be identified as the author(s) of the editorial material in this work has been asserted in accordance with law. Registered Office John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA Editorial Office 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print- on- demand. Some content that appears in standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty The contents of this work are intended to further general scientific research, understanding, and discussion only and are not intended and should not be relied upon as recommending or promoting scientific method, diagnosis, or treatment by physicians for any particular patient. In view of ongoing research, equipment modifications, changes in governmental regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to the use of medicines, equipment, and devices, the reader is urged to review and evaluate the information provided in the package insert or instructions for each medicine, equipment, or device for, among other things, any changes in the instructions or indication of usage and for added warnings and precautions. While the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this work, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives, written sales materials or promotional statements for this work. The fact that an organization, website, or product is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the publisher and authors endorse the information or services the organization, website, or product may provide or recommendations it may make. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a specialist where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Turnitsa, Charles, editor. | Blais, Curtis, editor. | Tolk, Andreas, editor. Title: Simulation and wargaming / edited by Charles Turnitsa, Regent University, Virginia Beach, USA, Curtis Blais, Naval Postgraduate School MOVES Institute, Monterey, USA, Andreas Tolk, The MITRE Corporation, Charlottesville, USA. Description: Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2021008520 (print) | LCCN 2021008521 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119604785 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119604792 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119604808 (epub) | ISBN 9781119604815 (obook) Subjects: LCSH: War games. | Simulation methods. Classification: LCC U310 .S487 2021 (print) | LCC U310 (ebook) | DDC 658.4/0352–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021008520 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021008521 Cover Design: Wiley Cover Image: © Unsplash Set in 9.5/12.5pt STIXTwoText by Straive, Pondicherry, India 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 This text is dedicated to Dr. Stuart H. Starr (1942 to 2018), a mentor, colleague, and friend. He devoted his life to military operations research and analysis, including pushing wargaming towards new horizons. His work made him a Fellow of the Military Operations Research Society and was recognized by the Clayton J. Thomas Award as well as the Vance R. Wanner Memorial Award, but far more worth and longer lasting than his many recognitions are the impressions that his personality left on all of us: his openness and willingness to step in and educate and support everyone on the team to create new insights. He truly will be missed. vii Contents Foreword xv Preface xxiii List of Contributors xxv Author Biography xxix Prologue xli Part I Introduction 1 1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation 3 Jeffrey Appleget ­Introduction­ 3 ­Terminology­ 3 ­An­Abbreviated­History­of Wargames­and Simulations­ 5 ­Wargames­and Computer-Based­Combat­Simulations:­From the Cold­War­ to Today­ 6 ­Wargames­Today­ 10 ­Simulations­Today­ 13 Introduction­ 13 Simulation­Types­ 13 Aggregate­Simulations­ 13 Entity­Simulations­ 14 Simulations­and Prediction­ 14 Standard­Assumptions­ 14 Data­ 15 Simulating­the Reality­of Combat­ 16 The­Capability­and Capacity­of Modern­Computing­to Represent­ Combat­ 16 viii Contents Finite­Size­ 17 Number­of Pieces/Entities­ 17 Terrain­ 18 Rules­ 18 Movement­ 18 Attack­ 19 Adjudication­ 19 Victory­Conditions­ 19 Summary­ 20 ­Campaign­Analysis­ 20 ­Conclusion­ 21 Part II Historical Context 23 2 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel 25 Jorit Wintjes ­Introduction­ 25 ­Kriegsspiel­Prehistory­ 29 ­A­School­for­War –­the­Prussian­Kriegsspiel  36 ­The­Prussian­Kriegsspiel­1824/28 –­1862­ 42 ­The­Golden­Age –­1862­to c.­1875­ 46 ­The­Changing­Kriegsspiel –­c.­1875­to­1914­ 50 Kriegsspiel­Beyond­Borders –­1871­to 1914­ 54 ­Conclusion­ 59 3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming 65 Joseph M. Saur ­The­Nature­of Combat­Models­ 67 ­Europe’s­Plan­to Simulate­the Entire­Planet­ 77 ­China­Exclusive:­China’s­“Magic­Cube”­Computer­Unlocks­the Future­ 77 ­A­Model­to Predict­War­ 78 ­Afghanistan­Stability/COIN­Dynamics –­Security­ 79 ­The­Nature­of Wargames­ 81 ­The­Players –­Who­Might­Be Involved?­ 85 ­The­CRT –­How­Do­We­Adjudicate­Political,­Economic,­Information­and­ Other­Non-­Kinetic­Actions?­How­DO­WE­ADJUDICATE­KINETIC­ INTERACTIONS­(Which,­in­This­Case,­We­Hope­Do­Not­Occur!)?­ 86 ­Organizational­Behaviors­ 88 ­Issue­in Wargames­(and­Combat­Models)­ 89 ­yyyyn­ 90

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