short-range actuarial projections of the old-age, survivors

350 Pages·2011·2.48 MB·English

S -R A P
HORT ANGE CTUARIAL ROJECTIONS
O -A , S ,
OF THE LD GE URVIVORS AND
D I P , 2010
ISABILITY NSURANCE ROGRAM
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 121
by Michael L. Stephens, A.S.A., and Chelsea A. Thomas
Social Security Administration
Office of the Chief Actuary
June 2011
SSA Pub. No. 11-11550
.
FOREWORD
Actuarial Study No.121 describes the assumptions and methodology used to estimate the future short-range financial operations of
the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program as presented in the 2010 OASDI Trustees Report. As has been custom-
ary for all recent reports, the “short-range” projection period is defined as the 10-year period beginning with the current year. This
study is the sixth in a series to describe in detail the development of the short-range estimates (previous such reports appeared in
Actuarial Study No. 103 (January 1989), Actuarial Study No. 104 (October 1991), Actuarial Study No. 111 (December 1996),
Actuarial Study No. 115 (July 2001), and Actuarial Study No. 119 (August 2005).
As the complexity of the OASDI program has increased over the years, the methods used to prepare actuarial estimates for the pro-
gram have increased in complexity as well. Legislative changes, periodic reviews from various technical advisory panels, and
improved actuarial methods have resulted in a substantial amount of detail being added to program estimates. The detail allows the
short-range staff to monitor program dynamics more closely, and hopefully improve the accuracy and utility of the estimates. The
complexity is evident from the over 200 tables shown in this study which provide only a summary of the detail of trust fund projec-
tions.
The authors, Michael L. Stephens and Chelsea A. Thomas, are to be commended for their painstaking effort in preparing a docu-
ment of this scope. I would also like to thank Steve McKay for his overall guidance and careful review of the various drafts of this
study. His efforts contributed significantly to the accuracy and clarity of this presentation. As we have indicated in previous edi-
tions, the size of the study prevents us from publishing full, updated reports each year. However, the authors have automated pro-
duction of the tables, for which we expect to have more frequent updates available on the Social Security Administration’s website
at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. Additional copies of the study are available upon request. Please refer to
the back cover for details. Finally, readers are welcome to provide comments or suggestions regarding any of the material con-
tained within. Such feedback will improve future versions of this actuarial study, and may result in improvements to estimation
methods. Comments to the authors can be submitted at either the address shown on the back cover or via e-mail directed to Actu-
[email protected].
Eli N. Donkar, Ph.D., A.S.A., M.A.A.A.
Deputy Chief Actuary
i
.
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
II. ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
A. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1. Productivity Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. Price Inflation Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. Average Earnings Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
4. Assumed Real-Wage Differentials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
6. Gross Domestic Product Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
7. Interest Rate Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
B. AUTOMATICALLY ADJUSTED PROGRAM PARAMETERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
C. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1. Fertility Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2. Death Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3. Life Expectancy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
D. PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1. Covered Workers and Coverage Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2. Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3. Disability Insured. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
4. Disability Incidence Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
5. Disability Termination Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1. Workers who are Insured for Disability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2. Awards and Incidence Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
3. Terminations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4. In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
5. Withheld (Suspensions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
6. Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
7. Children of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
a. Minor Children of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
b. Disabled children of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
c. Student Children of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
8. Young Spouses of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
9. Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
10. Quarterly Estimates of Disabled Workers and Auxiliaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES . . . . . . . . . 83
1. Fully Insured Beneficiaries Aged 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
a. In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
b. Awards: Establishing the Fully Insured Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
c. Awards: Establishing Retirement Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
d. Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
e. Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
f. Quarterly Retired Worker Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
2. Minor Children. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
3. Disabled Adult Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
4. Student Children . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
5. Quarterly Child Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
6. Young Spouses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
7. Mothers and Fathers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
iii
8. Quarterly Young Spouses and Mothers and Fathers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
9. Disabled Widows and Widowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
10. Uninsured Aged Spouses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
11. Uninsured Aged Widows and Widowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
12. Parents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
13. Special Age-72 Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
14. OASDI Beneficiaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
C. AVERAGE BENEFIT AT AWARD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
1. Sample Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
2. Sample Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
3. Simulated Samples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
4. Simulated Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
5. Benefit Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
6. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
D. DISABILITY INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
1. Average Benefit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
a. Non-Current-Payment Benefits Other than AERO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
b. Non-Current-Payment Benefits due to AERO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
1. Average Benefit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
4. Lump-Sum Death Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
5. Dual-Entitlement Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
6. Quarterly Benefit Payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
IV. TRUST FUND INCOME AND OUTGO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
A. TRUST FUND INCOME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
1. FICA and SECA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
2. State Deposits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
3. Adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
4. Refunds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
5. Taxation of Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
6. Military Service Payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264
7. Benefits to Uninsured Persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
8. Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265
B. TRUST FUND OUTGO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
1. Current-Payment Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
2. Unnegotiated Checks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
3. Vocational Rehabilitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
4. Railroad Retirement Interchange. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268
5. Administrative Expenses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
C. TRUST FUND PROGRESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
1. OASI Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
2. DI Trust Fund. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
B. HIGH-COST ASSUMPTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
A. DETERMINATION OF THE WAGE BASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
B. SCHEDULED INCREASES IN NORMAL RETIREMENT AGE (NRA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316
C. DISABLED WORKER INCIDENCE AND TERMINATION EXPOSURE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
D. DISABLED WORKER ADJUSTED INCIDENCE AND TERMINATION RATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
E. AVERAGE AGE OF DISABLED WORKERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
F. GLOSSARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
v
vi
LIST OF TABLES
Table Description Page
II. ASSUMPTIONS
II.1 Principal Economic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
II.2 Additional Economic Factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
II.3 Interest Rates for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds. . . . . . . . . . . 15
II.4 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage and Average Wage Index Increases,
OASDI Contribution and Benefit Base, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
II.5 Selected OASDI Program Parameters Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions . . . . . . . . 17
II.6 Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
II.7 Covered Workers in the Social Security Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
II.8 Covered Workers as a Percent of the Social Security Area Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
II.9 Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS
Disability Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries
III.A1 Workers Fully Insured for Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
III.A2 Social Security Area Population Under Normal Retirement Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
III.A3 Workers Under Normal Retirement Age Who Are Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
III.A4 Labor Force Participation Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
III.A5 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability as a Percent of Fully Insured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
III.A6 Workers Insured in the Event of Disability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
III.A7 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
III.A8 DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
III.A9 DI Disabled Worker Awards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
III.A10 DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
III.A11 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Death. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
III.A12 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
III.A13 DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to “Other” Reasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
III.A14 DI Disabled Worker Total Terminations and Conversions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
III.A15 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Death . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
III.A16 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
III.A17 DI Disabled Worker Terminations Due to “Other” Reasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
III.A18 DI Disabled Worker Withheld Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
III.A19 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
III.A20 DI Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
III.A21 Non-Orphan and Orphan Population, Under 18, in the Social Security Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
III.A22 Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
III.A23 Awards to Minor Children of Disabled Workers, as a Percentage of the Non-Orphan Population . . . . . . . . 53
III.A24 Awards to Minor Children of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
III.A25 Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
III.A26 Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
III.A27 Uninsured Population in the Social Security Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
III.A28 Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
III.A29 Awards to Disabled Children of Disabled Workers, as a Percentage of the Uninsured Population. . . . . . . . 59
vii
III.A30 Awards to Disabled Children of Disabled Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
III.A31 Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
III.A32 Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld,
as a Percentage of Disabled Children In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
III.A33 Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
III.A34 Student Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
III.A35 Young Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
III.A36 Awards to Young Spouses of Disabled Workers, Per 1,000 Awards to Eligible Children of Disabled
Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
III.A37 Awards to Young Spouses of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
III.A38 Young Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld, as a Percentage of Young Spouses In Force 68
III.A39 Young Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits Withheld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
III.A40 Young Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
III.A41 DI Awards to Aged Spouses of Disabled Workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
III.A42 DI Male Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
III.A43 DI Female Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
III.A44 DI Total Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
III.A45 DI Young Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
III.A46 DI Young Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
III.A47 DI Aged Wives of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
III.A48 DI Aged Husbands of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
III.A49 DI Total Spouses of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
III.A50 DI Minor Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
III.A51 DI Disabled Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
III.A52 DI Student Children of Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force,
Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program—Number of Beneficiaries
III.B1 Population in the Social Security Area, Age 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
III.B2 OASI Workers Who Are Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
III.B3 Percent of the Population That Is Fully Insured, Age 60 or Older. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
III.B4 Retired Workers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
III.B5 Insured Aged Widows and Widowers With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
III.B6 Insured Aged Spouses With Benefits In Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
III.B7 Total Fully Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
III.B8 Total Fully Insured Aged Beneficiaries In Force, Age 60 or Older as a Percentage of Fully
Insured Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
viii