Shooting for a century: the India-Pakistan conundrum

259 Pages·2013·2.032 MB·English

by  Cohen, Stephen P

(continued from front flap) Praise for the work of C The rivalry beTween India and Pakistan
States in addressing a range of issues that divide the o has proven to be one of the world’s most intractable
Stephen P. Cohen
h
nations. Kashmir is one of these issues, but as much a international conflicts, ever since 1947 when the
e
consequence as a cause of the rivalry. British botched their departure from the South Asian
n
The Idea of Pakistan
subcontinent. And the enmity is likely to continue for
Can India and Pakistan resolve their many territorial
“Cohen is the United States’ leading analyst of South Asia, and this
another thirty-five years, reaching the century mark.
and identity issues? Perhaps the best they can expect authoritative work of broad scope and meticulous research will surely
This has critical implications for both countries and
in the near term is a limited degree of normalization, become required reading on Pakistan.”
S
the rest of the world. Renowned South Asia expert
—Foreign Affairs
including bottom-up ideas generated by the peace h
Stephen P. Cohen explains why he expects this rivalry
and business communities, as well as a realistic “A lucid, penetrating, and brilliantly constructed book on the state and nation of Pakistan. o
to continue in this first comprehensive survey of the
assessment by strategic elites of the two states’ shared Cohen, an old South Asia hand, brings to the fore all of his knowledge and expertise of one of o
deep historical, cultural, and strategic differences that
America’s most important allies in the war on terror.”
common interests. t
underpin the hostility.
—A Choice Outstanding Academic Title i
n
“Right now, full normalization seems unlikely,” Cohen
India: Emerging Power g In recent years the stakes have increased as India and
writes in the preface, “so this book is suffused with
Pakistan have each acquired a hundred or more nu-
conditional pessimism: normalization would be “A powerful tour d’horizon of modern India’s strategic past and a valuable f
o clear weapons, blundered into several serious crises,
reflection on its prospects in the international system.”—The Hindu
desirable, but there are worse futures than a projection
r and become victims of terrorism, some of it from
of the present rivalry for another thirty years or more.” “A timely, comprehensive, well-grounded study of India as a rising power
a across their borders. America is puzzled by the prob-
and its implications for the U.S. . . . Cohen’s perceptive, insightful, and balanced account
Shooting for lem of dealing with a rising India and a struggling
of emergent India will be essential reading for U.S. foreign policymakers, scholars, C
STephen p. Cohen is a Pakistan, and Cohen offers a fresh approach for U.S.
and informed citizens.”
senior fellow in Foreign Policy —Choice e policy in dealing with these two powers.
n
at the Brookings Institution.
Long considered one of Amer- Arming without Aiming: India’s t a Century Drawing on his rich experience in South Asia to
u
Military Modernization (with Sunil Dasgupta) explore the character, depth, and origin of Indian and
ica’s premier experts on South
r
Pakistani attitudes toward each other, Cohen develops
Asia, he has a number of books “Cohen’s unmatched four decades’ experience, studying and writing y
on security issues, gives this book an exceptional degree of feel for the ground.” a comprehensive theory of why the dispute between
to his credit, including India:
—Economic and Political Weekly (India)
New Delhi and Islamabad is likely to persist. He also
Emerging Power, The Idea of Pakistan, and Arming
describes the terrible cost of this animosity for the
without Aiming: India’s Military Modernization (with “This cautionary tale will be required reading for all those concerned about Indian defense The IndIa-PakIsTan Conundrum
policy and military modernization.” citizens of India and Pakistan, including the region’s
Sunil Dasgupta).
—Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace high levels of violence and low level of economic
integration. On a more hopeful note, however, he goes
on to suggest developments that could ameliorate the
Cover illustration: “Method of attack with the musket when meeting
tension, including a more active role for the United
the enemy head on” from The Book of Rules for the Manoeuvres of
Stephen P. Cohen
the Hindustani Musket Cavalry, by Lt. Col. James Skinner, circa 1824. BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS (continued on back flap)
Copyright © National Army Museum, London.
Washington, D.C.
Jacket design by Peggy Archambault www.brookings.edu/press
(continued from front flap) Praise for the work of C The rivalry beTween India and Pakistan
States in addressing a range of issues that divide the o has proven to be one of the world’s most intractable
Stephen P. Cohen
h
nations. Kashmir is one of these issues, but as much a international conflicts, ever since 1947 when the
e
consequence as a cause of the rivalry. British botched their departure from the South Asian
n
The Idea of Pakistan
subcontinent. And the enmity is likely to continue for
Can India and Pakistan resolve their many territorial
“Cohen is the United States’ leading analyst of South Asia, and this
another thirty-five years, reaching the century mark.
and identity issues? Perhaps the best they can expect authoritative work of broad scope and meticulous research will surely
This has critical implications for both countries and
in the near term is a limited degree of normalization, become required reading on Pakistan.”
S
the rest of the world. Renowned South Asia expert
—Foreign Affairs
including bottom-up ideas generated by the peace h
Stephen P. Cohen explains why he expects this rivalry
and business communities, as well as a realistic “A lucid, penetrating, and brilliantly constructed book on the state and nation of Pakistan. o
to continue in this first comprehensive survey of the
assessment by strategic elites of the two states’ shared Cohen, an old South Asia hand, brings to the fore all of his knowledge and expertise of one of o
deep historical, cultural, and strategic differences that
America’s most important allies in the war on terror.”
common interests. t
underpin the hostility.
—A Choice Outstanding Academic Title i
n
“Right now, full normalization seems unlikely,” Cohen
India: Emerging Power g In recent years the stakes have increased as India and
writes in the preface, “so this book is suffused with
Pakistan have each acquired a hundred or more nu-
conditional pessimism: normalization would be “A powerful tour d’horizon of modern India’s strategic past and a valuable f
o clear weapons, blundered into several serious crises,
reflection on its prospects in the international system.”—The Hindu
desirable, but there are worse futures than a projection
r and become victims of terrorism, some of it from
of the present rivalry for another thirty years or more.” “A timely, comprehensive, well-grounded study of India as a rising power
a across their borders. America is puzzled by the prob-
and its implications for the U.S. . . . Cohen’s perceptive, insightful, and balanced account
Shooting for lem of dealing with a rising India and a struggling
of emergent India will be essential reading for U.S. foreign policymakers, scholars, C
STephen p. Cohen is a Pakistan, and Cohen offers a fresh approach for U.S.
and informed citizens.”
senior fellow in Foreign Policy —Choice e policy in dealing with these two powers.
n
at the Brookings Institution.
Long considered one of Amer- Arming without Aiming: India’s t a Century Drawing on his rich experience in South Asia to
u
Military Modernization (with Sunil Dasgupta) explore the character, depth, and origin of Indian and
ica’s premier experts on South
r
Pakistani attitudes toward each other, Cohen develops
Asia, he has a number of books “Cohen’s unmatched four decades’ experience, studying and writing y
on security issues, gives this book an exceptional degree of feel for the ground.” a comprehensive theory of why the dispute between
to his credit, including India:
—Economic and Political Weekly (India)
New Delhi and Islamabad is likely to persist. He also
Emerging Power, The Idea of Pakistan, and Arming
describes the terrible cost of this animosity for the
without Aiming: India’s Military Modernization (with “This cautionary tale will be required reading for all those concerned about Indian defense The IndIa-PakIsTan Conundrum
policy and military modernization.” citizens of India and Pakistan, including the region’s
Sunil Dasgupta).
—Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace high levels of violence and low level of economic
integration. On a more hopeful note, however, he goes
on to suggest developments that could ameliorate the
Cover illustration: “Method of attack with the musket when meeting
tension, including a more active role for the United
the enemy head on” from The Book of Rules for the Manoeuvres of
Stephen P. Cohen
the Hindustani Musket Cavalry, by Lt. Col. James Skinner, circa 1824. BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS (continued on back flap)
Copyright © National Army Museum, London.
Washington, D.C.
Jacket design by Peggy Archambault www.brookings.edu/press
(continued from front flap) Praise for the work of C The rivalry beTween India and Pakistan
States in addressing a range of issues that divide the o has proven to be one of the world’s most intractable
Stephen P. Cohen
h
nations. Kashmir is one of these issues, but as much a international conflicts, ever since 1947 when the
e
consequence as a cause of the rivalry. British botched their departure from the South Asian
n
The Idea of Pakistan
subcontinent. And the enmity is likely to continue for
Can India and Pakistan resolve their many territorial
“Cohen is the United States’ leading analyst of South Asia, and this
another thirty-five years, reaching the century mark.
and identity issues? Perhaps the best they can expect authoritative work of broad scope and meticulous research will surely
This has critical implications for both countries and
in the near term is a limited degree of normalization, become required reading on Pakistan.”
S
the rest of the world. Renowned South Asia expert
—Foreign Affairs
including bottom-up ideas generated by the peace h
Stephen P. Cohen explains why he expects this rivalry
and business communities, as well as a realistic “A lucid, penetrating, and brilliantly constructed book on the state and nation of Pakistan. o
to continue in this first comprehensive survey of the
assessment by strategic elites of the two states’ shared Cohen, an old South Asia hand, brings to the fore all of his knowledge and expertise of one of o
deep historical, cultural, and strategic differences that
America’s most important allies in the war on terror.”
common interests. t
underpin the hostility.
—A Choice Outstanding Academic Title i
n
“Right now, full normalization seems unlikely,” Cohen
India: Emerging Power g In recent years the stakes have increased as India and
writes in the preface, “so this book is suffused with
Pakistan have each acquired a hundred or more nu-
conditional pessimism: normalization would be “A powerful tour d’horizon of modern India’s strategic past and a valuable f
o clear weapons, blundered into several serious crises,
reflection on its prospects in the international system.”—The Hindu
desirable, but there are worse futures than a projection
r and become victims of terrorism, some of it from
of the present rivalry for another thirty years or more.” “A timely, comprehensive, well-grounded study of India as a rising power
a across their borders. America is puzzled by the prob-
and its implications for the U.S. . . . Cohen’s perceptive, insightful, and balanced account
Shooting for lem of dealing with a rising India and a struggling
of emergent India will be essential reading for U.S. foreign policymakers, scholars, C
STephen p. Cohen is a Pakistan, and Cohen offers a fresh approach for U.S.
and informed citizens.”
senior fellow in Foreign Policy —Choice e policy in dealing with these two powers.
n
at the Brookings Institution.
Long considered one of Amer- Arming without Aiming: India’s t a Century Drawing on his rich experience in South Asia to
u
Military Modernization (with Sunil Dasgupta) explore the character, depth, and origin of Indian and
ica’s premier experts on South
r
Pakistani attitudes toward each other, Cohen develops
Asia, he has a number of books “Cohen’s unmatched four decades’ experience, studying and writing y
on security issues, gives this book an exceptional degree of feel for the ground.” a comprehensive theory of why the dispute between
to his credit, including India:
—Economic and Political Weekly (India)
New Delhi and Islamabad is likely to persist. He also
Emerging Power, The Idea of Pakistan, and Arming
describes the terrible cost of this animosity for the
without Aiming: India’s Military Modernization (with “This cautionary tale will be required reading for all those concerned about Indian defense The IndIa-PakIsTan Conundrum
policy and military modernization.” citizens of India and Pakistan, including the region’s
Sunil Dasgupta).
—Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace high levels of violence and low level of economic
integration. On a more hopeful note, however, he goes
on to suggest developments that could ameliorate the
Cover illustration: “Method of attack with the musket when meeting
tension, including a more active role for the United
the enemy head on” from The Book of Rules for the Manoeuvres of
Stephen P. Cohen
the Hindustani Musket Cavalry, by Lt. Col. James Skinner, circa 1824. BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS (continued on back flap)
Copyright © National Army Museum, London.
Washington, D.C.
Jacket design by Peggy Archambault www.brookings.edu/press
shooting
for a
century

shooting
for a
century

the india-pakistan conundrum
stephen p. cohen
brookings institution press
Washington, D.C.
Copyright © 2013
the brookings institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing
from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data
Cohen, Stephen P., 1936– author.
Shooting for a century : the India-Pakistan conundrum / Stephen P. Cohen.
pages : maps ; cm
Summary: “Examines the antagonistic relationship between India and Pakistan
and the territorial and identity issues that have divided them for sixty-five years,
and possibly the next thirty-five, and offers ways the tension between the two might
be ameliorated if not solved, including a more active role for the United States”—
Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8157-2186-4 (hardcover : alkaline paper)
1. India—Foreign relations—Pakistan. 2. Pakistan—Foreign relations—India.
I. Title.
DS450.P18C644 2013
327.5405491—dc23 2013012087
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed on acid-free paper
Typeset in Minion
Composition by Cynthia Stock
Silver Spring, Maryland
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
Again, for Bobby

Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xvii
1 Context 1
2 Conflicts 33
3 India 60
4 Pakistan 88
5 Explanations 118
6 Prospects 147
7 American Interests and Policies 179
Notes 197
Index 225
Maps
India on the Eve of Independence, 1947 xviii
South Asia 34
Jammu and Kashmir 45
vii