Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific?: The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance PDF
Preview Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific?: The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance
Global Power Shift Enrico Fels Shifting Power in Asia-Pacifi c? The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance Global Power Shift Comparative Analysis and Perspectives Serieseditor: XuewuGu CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Bonn,Germany ManagingEditor: EnricoFels CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany InternationalAdvisoryBoard: LuisFernandes,PontificiaUniversidadeCatolicadoRiodeJaneiro,Brazil G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,USA CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,China SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India DingliShen,FudanUniversity,China KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Japan RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Italy Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of internationalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemerging powers,aswellasbetweenstatesandnon-stateactors.However,thereisadearthof theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central issuestobeaddressedincludetheoreticalquestionsandempiricalpuzzles:Howcan studiesofglobalpowershiftandtheriseof‘emergingpowers’benefitfromexisting theories, and which alternative aspects and theoretical approaches might be suit- able? How can the meanings, perceptions, dynamics, and consequences of global power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly innovativeresearchonthesetopics.Itaimstobringtogetherscholarsfromallmajor worldregionsaswellasdifferentdisciplines,includingpoliticalscience,econom- ics and human geography. The overall aim is to discuss and possibly blend their differentapproachesandprovidenewframeworksforunderstandingglobalaffairs andthegovernanceofglobalpowershifts. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10201 Enrico Fels Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific? The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance EnricoFels CenterforGlobalStudies UniversityofBonn Bonn,Germany Dissertation anderRheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn,2016 Additional material tothis bookcanbedownloaded from http://extras.springer.com. ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic) GlobalPowerShift ISBN978-3-319-45688-1 ISBN978-3-319-45689-8 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-45689-8 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016957839 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Acknowledgements This study is based on a dissertation submitted at the Rheinische Friedrich- Wilhelms-Universita¨t Bonn in autumn 2015. In many ways, writing a PhD thesis is a long expedition; neither the precise length of the trip nor the exact place of arrival is certain at the time of departure. Fortunately, several people have supportedmeduringtheyearsofmyresearchvoyage,particularlybyencouraging metoexplorenewmethodologiesandtheoreticalapproaches,byhelpingmetostay focused or by providing spiritual support in times of frustration (yes, research is rarelyalinearjourney,detoursmustbetakenandoccasionallyapatonthebackis allthatisneededtogetbackontrack). Firstandforemost,IwishtothankmysupervisorProf.Dr.XuewuGu,Director of the Center for Global Studies (CGS) at the University of Bonn, not only for offeringmetheinterestingandchallengingopportunitytomorecloselyinvestigate the potential power shift between China and the USA, but for constantly pushing my academic boundaries and always giving me invaluable academic advice and moralsupportwhenneeded.Withouthimandhisguidance,thisdissertationwould not have been possible. His constructive criticism as well as the helpful ideas put forwardbyhiminournumerousdiscussionsonthemattercontributedimmeasur- ablytotheformation,developmentandconclusionofmyPhDthesis. IamfurthermoreverymuchindebtedtoProf.Dr.ChristophSchuckfromtheTU Dortmund’s Institute for Philosophy and Political Science and Vice Dean of the Faculty for Human Science and Theology for being my secondary supervisor. He guided my research in both face-to-face and telephone conversations, and his valuable suggestions fostered this book in many ways. When he offered me the opportunity to present my research in his PhD colloquium at the TU Dortmund, I initially did not expect that participation in the colloquium would trigger such an inspiringandhelpfulexchangeofideas.Iamthusverygratefultohimandallthe otherparticipants.Inthesamecontext,IalsowishtothankthemembersoftheCGS PhDcolloquiumaswellastheparticipantsoftheShanghaiInternationalWorkshop onStructuralPower(2011)andaYaleInternationalConferenceonthedisputesin v vi Acknowledgements the South China Sea (2016). In these and many other for a I found diligent researcherswhoprovidedhelpfulcommentsovertheyearsofmyresearch. Imoreoverbenefitedfromthecomprehensiveacademicandprivateencourage- mentsprovidedbycurrentandformercolleaguesattheCGS.Prof.Dr.Maximilian Mayer, Krystin Unverzagt, Dr. Andrej Pustovitovskij, Hendrik Ohnesorge, KatharinaBelowandJan-FrederikKremerhaveallowedmetodiscussmythoughts withtheminatrulyinspiringandproductiveacademicenvironment.Ialwaysfound theircommentstobehelpfulinonewayoranotherandourdiscussionsconstantly stimulatedmyresearchendeavours.Moreover,Hendrikwaskindenoughtoproof- read large parts of the thesis and provided truly helpful feedback. Several other current and former colleagues at the CGS were likewise supportive: Pavlina Schmitz, Valentin Urban, Susan Westhoff, Orsina Kather, Sanni Kunnas, Nina Nick, Eva Bosse and Iris Volg not only constantly encouraged me but aided me inmyacademicandadministrativedutiesattheUniversityofBonn,forwhichIam verygratefultothem. Big thanks are also due to Prof. Dr. Sarah Kirchberger from Hamburg University’s Asia-Africa-Institute, Dr. Henrike Viehrig from Bonn University’s North America Studies Program, Dr. Klaas Staal from Karlsstad University’s Economic Department, Dr. Omer Majeed from the College of Asia & the Pacific oftheAustralianNationalUniversity(ANU),Dr.ThomasLenzen,Berlin,andProf. John Derrick Ovington, emeritus at ANU, for kindly proofreading, commenting and/or polishing essential parts of the thesis as well as for providing valuable comments on important aspects of my project even on very short notice. Further- more,Iam grateful toDr.David Teller forhis manyvaluableremarksduringour productive discussions throughout my research. My good Australian friends Amy Vickers and Freya Ovington helped me enormously by correcting and editing the wholemanuscriptagain—Ifeeltrulyblessedfortheirsubstantialsupport. I am moreover indebted to Prof. Dr. Reimund Seidelmann, emeritus at Gießen University, who has frequently enabled me to discuss my ideas with international scholars on multiple occasions in Europe and Asia. Furthermore, I am grateful to Dr. Gudrun Wacker from the German Institute for International and Security/ Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) for her helpful comments on a paper draftduringtheDVPWconferenceinOctober2011inMunich,duringwhichtimeI first discussed some of the ideas for my thesis, as well as for the generously provided opportunity to debate with some of the leading figures of our discipline duringthemanyoccasionssheinvitedmetoSWP’sprestigiousBerlinConference on Asian Security. Additionally, I wish to extend special gratitude to Prof. Dr. Volker Kronenberg, Vice Dean at the Faculty of Arts and Humanities and Academic Director at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology at Bonn University,aswellasProf.Dr.RalphKauz,DirectoroftheDepartmentofSinology atBonnUniversity’sInstituteforOrientandAsianStudies,forkindlyparticipating intheexaminationboardthatwasresponsibleforassessingbothmyPhDthesisand mydisputation.Inthiscontext,IalsowishtoexpressmygratitudetoAnkePieland Dr. Manuel Becker for their invaluable administrative support particularly during the final stages of the PhD process. Many thanks are also due to Dr. Johannes Acknowledgements vii Gla¨ser,MarionKreiselandSulataKumariNayakfromSpringer’sEconomicsand PoliticalScienceSectionandSPiGlobalrespectivelyfortheirgreatsupportduring thepublicationprocess. I furthermore wish to thank two of my former academic mentors: Prof. Dr.StefanSchirmfromtheChairforInternationalRelationsattheRuhr-University BochumandProf.RobertAyson,PhD,nowattheCentreforStrategicStudiesatthe VictoriaUniversityofWellington.Withouttheirgreatteaching,intellectualinteg- rity and helpful guidance through my academic career’s earlier stages, I probably wouldnothavedecidedtoremaininacademia.StefanSchirmwasresponsiblefor triggeringmyinterestinInternationalRelationsinthefirstplaceandoutlinedtome the importance of theory for understanding the world’s complexity. At the Australian National University, Robert Ayson deepened my understanding of the manysignificantlayersofAsia’sriseandpiquedmyempiricalcuriosityregarding the role of middle powers in international affairs. I hope they both like this main productofmyresearch. Last but not least, I am profoundly indebted to my family and my friends for theirunwaveringpracticalandspiritualsupportthroughoutthemanyyearsittook toresearchandwritemythesis.DoingaPhDnexttoafull-timepositionasresearch fellowconsumesalotoftime.Thisinevitablyaffectssocialrelationswithrelatives and close friends. I thank all of them for their tolerance and understanding. In particular,Iwishtothankmyparentsfortheirloveandsupportduringtheyearsof writing.MywonderfulwifeKatjasupportedmeimmenselyinbothemotionaland academic ways. She has accepted—at times grudgingly, but always generously— myresearch’s impact on ourfamily life with ouramazing sonCarl Leopold, who despite the many hours I have spent in the office still recognizesme. Without my wife’s patience, her sound advice as an academic working at the crossroads of economics and political science as well as her editing in the evening hours, on weekends and during holidays, my thesis would probably never have reached its currentempiricaldepthandmethodologicalstrength.Thankyouforeverything,my love.ItistoyouthatIgratefullydedicatethisbook. Contents 1 OpeningtheFloor:TheRivalryBetweenEagleandDragon inAsia-Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 LiteratureOverview:TheAttestedStruggleBetweenGiants. . . 14 1.2 TacklingtheAcademicVoid:ResearchPuzzleandResearch Questions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 1.3 SomeOpeningWordsonMethodologyandResearchDesign. . . 58 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 2 TheoreticalFramework:RealismasaLensforAnalysis. . . . . . . . 85 2.1 ClassicalRealism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 2.2 StructuralRealism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 2.3 TheCoreofRealistTheories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 2.4 TheBalance-of-PowerTheory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 2.5 InternationalCooperationinaRealistWorld.. . . . . .. . . . .. . 121 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 3 PowerinInternationalRelations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 3.1 AggregateUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 3.2 RelationalUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 3.3 StructuralUnderstandingsofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 3.4 TheChallengeofMeasuringPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 3.5 TheContinuingRelevanceofCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 4 TowardsaMiddlePowerTheoryinInternationalRelations. . . . . 195 4.1 GreatPowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 4.2 MiddlePowers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 4.3 TheRoleofMiddlePowersinUnderstandingShifts inRelationalPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 ix x Contents 5 TakingStockofAsia-Pacific’sTangiblePowerChanges: MeasuringAggregatePower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 5.1 AnIndexofAggregatePower:TheClineFormula. . . . . . . . . 227 5.1.1 CriticalMass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 5.1.2 EconomicCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 5.1.3 MilitaryCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 5.1.4 StrategicPurposeandNationalWill. . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 5.2 ReconceptualisingandRefiningtheClineFormula:Modelling aNewCompositeIndicatoronAggregatePower(CIAP). . . . . 240 5.2.1 Standardisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 5.2.2 WeightingandGrouping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 5.2.3 AggregationandSensitivityTesting. . . . . . . . . . . . . 248 5.3 AddingEmpiricalFleshtoTheoreticalBones:Calculating theCIAP. .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . 251 5.3.1 CriticalMass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 5.3.2 EconomicCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 5.3.2.1 GrossNationalProduct. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 5.3.2.2 DomesticEnergySupplyandExternal EnergyDependence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 5.3.2.3 CriticalNonfuelMinerals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 5.3.2.4 IndustrialStrength.. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . 275 5.3.2.5 FoodProductionandDependency. . . . . . . . 283 5.3.2.6 Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 5.3.3 MilitaryCapabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 5.3.4 StrategicPurposeandNationalWill. . . . . . . . . . . . . 310 5.4 AssemblingtheCIAP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 5.5 SummaryandEvaluationofFindings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 6 Determiningthe(Almost)Intangible:MeasuringRelational Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 6.1 DefiningMeasuresforComparativeCaseStudiesin Mixed-MethodResearchonRelationalPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . 344 6.2 NeitherSmallNorGreat:IdentifyingMiddlePowers inAsia-Pacific. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 353 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 7 Australia:TradingwiththeDragon,ButFlyingwiththeEagle. . . 365 7.1 AustraliaasaMiddlePower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 7.1.1 EconomicDevelopment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 7.1.2 ForeignPolicy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 7.1.3 SecurityProfile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367 7.2 Australia’sRelationswiththeUnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 7.3 Australia’sRelationswithChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 7.4 Analysis:ShiftingAllegiance?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
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