Shahril Shamsuddin, President & Group CEO, SapuraKencana Dr. Ilham Akbar Habibie, President ...

29 Pages·2014·4.07 MB·English

CHAIR CO-CHAIR RESEARCH PARTNER
Shahril Shamsuddin, Dr. Ilham Akbar Habibie, Bain & Company
President & Group CEO, President Director,
SapuraKencana PT Ilthabi Rekatama
Center of influence shifting in the wider resource market
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent SNG ABCF MOG TR Slides 2
21st Century Coal: Fueling
Economic Growth of ASEAN
September 8, 2014
Layton Croft
Vice President, External Relations - Asia
ASEAN Coal Dynamics
Key Discussion Themes
● ASEAN undergoing significant growth in coal
generating capacity
● Member nations strategically positioned to secure
reliable, low-cost supply of coal
● 21st Century Coal advances ASEAN’s energy,
economic and environmental goals
2
2
Strong Growth Forecast for ASEAN
Coal Generating Capacity
ASEAN Coal Generating Capacity to Increase Significantly by 2017
Represents Up to 90 - 130Mmt Potential Growth in
Coal Capacity
Additional Coal Consumption
2013 – 2017
100
(GW)
)
W
84
G
(
y 80
Growth
it 2013-2017
c
a
p Growth
a
C
60

g
n
ti 47 Vietnam Indonesia
a
er 19 9
n 40
e
G
Existing

l
a
o
C
20
0
Philippines
2013 2017
5
Other
Thailand
Malaysia
3
1
2
Sources: Platts, Peabody Energy Analytics and Wood Mackenzie 3
New ASEAN Generation Capacity to be
Dominated by Coal
Over 50% of Total New Capacity Additions Expected to be Coal-fueled
Growth in Generating Capacity
● Currently 24 GW of new
2013 – 2017
coal capacity under
40
construction, more than all
other fuel types combined
30
)
● Additional 14 GW of new W
G
y ( Planned
coal capacity under t
ci
a
p
development a
C 20 Construction
g
n
ti
a
● Attractive economics and r
e
n
e
G
lower delivered costs drive t
e 10
N
ASEAN generation mix
towards greater use of coal
0
Coal Gas Hydro Other
Sources: Platts, Peabody Energy Analytics, and Wood Mackenzie 4
Coal Remains the Most Affordable Fuel
$25
● Coal remains the most
Futures
Brent
affordable, reliable, Crude Oil
$20
sustainable fuel option
● ASEAN member nation
u
t $15
B
Indonesia is one of the m Asia Gas / LNG
m
/ Europe Nat
$
most competitive global Gas / LNG
$10
thermal coal producers
Newcastle Coal
$5
Indonesia Coal
$0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: Bloomberg, ICAP, PIRA and Peabody Analytics.
Graph represents current market prices for forward contracts sourced from the various commodity exchanges.
All prices are delivered except Asia Gas/LNG. 5
International Energy Agency
Southeast Asia Energy Outlook
Commentary from IEA Chief Economist, Dr. Fatih Birol
● Energy demand of the 10 countries that make up
ASEAN has risen 250% since 1990
● Economic and demographic trends suggest that
considerable growth is still to come, especially
given that the per-capita energy use of the region’s
600 million inhabitants is low, at 50% of the global
average
● Southeast Asia’s energy demand is set to increase
by more than 80% by 2035; this supports a near
tripling in size of the region’s economy
● Coal is increasingly the fuel of choice over natural
gas
● Coal remains relatively abundant and affordable;
cost of generating power from coal is now around
half that of gas
● ~75% of the thermal power generation capacity
under construction in ASEAN countries is coal-
fueled
6
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, October 2013
ASEAN Nations Ideally Placed to Secure
Reliable, Low-Cost Supply
2012 Seaborne Coal Volumes (Mmt, Met and Thermal Combined)
110
London
Essen
144
Ulaanbaatar
229
Urumqi
289 375
Beijing
New Delhi
137
Singapore
81
Balikpapan
South
Africa
Myanmar 339
Lao PDR Jakarta 26
315
Philippines
Thailand
Cambodia Vietnam Net Supply Region
Brunei
Malaysia Darussalam Net Demand Region
Singapore Peabody Offices
and Operations
Indonesia
Source: Peabody Analytics, Wood Mackenzie, McCloskey and other sources
7
ASEAN Nations Ideally Placed to Secure
Reliable, Low-Cost Supply
Net Supply Region
Net Demand Region
Peabody Offices
Myanmar
and Operations
Lao PDR
18
11
Thailand
Philippines
21
Vietnam
Cambodia
24
Malaysia
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
Indonesia
339
Source: Peabody Analytics, Wood Mackenzie, McCloskey and other sources 8