Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector

469 Pages·2004·10.1 MB·English

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CH9900025
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PSI Bericht Nr. 98-16
m PAUL S C H E R R ER I N S T I T UT November 1998
CO ISSN 1019-0643
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Project GaBE:
Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Systems
Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector
First edition
Hirschberg S., Spiekerman G. and Dones R.
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH - 5232 Villigen PSI
Telefon [phone]
Telefax 056 310 21 99
0
PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT
November 1998
Project GaBE:
Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Systems
Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector
First edition
Hirschberg S., Spiekerman G. and Dones R.
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH-5232 Villigen PSI
Telefon [phone]
Telefax 056/310 2199
Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Systems
Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector
First edition
Hirschberg S., Spiekerman G. and Dones R.
This report was commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy
November 1998
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Table of Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures xi
Abstract xvii
Acknowledgements xxi
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Context of the Study 1
1.2 Severe Accidents Issue 1
1.3 Potential Users of Severe Accident Information 2
1.4 Report Organisation 4
1.5 Dissemination of Project Results 5
1.6 References 5
2. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF WORK 9
2.1 Project Objectives 9
2.2 Scope of Work 9
2.3 References 13
3. GENERAL ANALYSIS APPROACH AND METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 15
3.1 Background 15
3.2 User-dependent Restrictions 15
3.3 Implementation 16
3.4 Some Methodological Issues 18
3.5 Overall Analysis Strategy 19
3.6 References 20
4. INFORMATION SOURCES 21
4.1 Introduction 21
4.2 Overview 21
4.3 Review of Selected Databases and Sources 22
4.3.1 Databases and some additional sources used in ENS AD 22
4.3.1.1 The OFDA disaster history database 22
4.3.1.2 The Fatal Hazardous Materials Accidents Database 23
4.3.1.3 The Major Hazards Incidence Data Service (MHIDAS) 24
4.3.1.4 The industrial safety database FACTS 25
4.3.1.5 The WOAD Offshore Database 28
4.3.1.6 The Major Accident Reporting System 29
4.3.1.7 The accident handbook "Materialien 5/83 " 30
4.3.1.8 The "SIGMA" publication of the Schweizer Ruck (reinsurance) company 31
4.3.1.9 Encyclopaedia Britannica 31
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4.3.1.10 The ICOLD catalogues of dam disasters 31
4.3.1.11 The "Catalog of Dam Disasters, Failures and Accidents " 32
4.3.1.12 Marsh & McLennan Study on Gas and Electricity Utilities 32
4.3.2 Examples of some other databases not used in ENSAD 32
4.3.2.1 The Casualties and Demolition Database 32
4.3.2.2 Minerals Management Service Accident Database 33
4.3.2.3 Acute Hazardous Events Database 33
4.3.2.4 SONATA 34
4.3.2.5 The VARO database 35
4.3.3 Additional potential sources of severe-accident related information 36
4.3.3.1 OSH-ROM 36
4.3.3.2 HSELINE 36
4.3.3.3 NIOSHTIC 37
4.3.3.4 CISDOC 37
4.3.3.5 The ETDE Energy Database 37
4.4 Summary 37
4.5 References 39
5. STRUCTURE AND CONTENT OF ENSAD 41
5.1 Actual versus Reported Accidents 41
5.2 Severe Accident Definitions 41
5.3 Data Presentation in ENSAD 43
5.3.1 Identification number 43
5.3.2 Timing information and accident site specification 46
5.3.3 Technological characteristics of the accident 48
5.3.3.1 Energy production 48
5.3.3.2 Coal 48
5.3.3.3 Oil 48
5.3.3.4 Gas 48
5.3.3.5 Nuclear 48
5.3.3.6 Hydro 48
5.3.3.7 Activity data 48
5.3.3.8 Transport mode information 49
5.3.3.9 Information on the damaged facility 49
5.3.3.10 Information on general causes 49
5.3.3.11 Information on specific causes 49
5.3.3.12 Chemicals involved 53
5.3.4 Accident analysis 53
5.3.5 Damages 57
5.4 Some Facts about ENSAD 57
5.4.1 Overall statistical information of ENSAD 57
5.4.2 Source composition of energy-related accidents in ENSAD 59
5.4.3 Source composition of non-energy-related accidents in ENSAD 60
5.4.4 Distribution of energy-related accidents by years 61
5.4.5 Distribution of non-energy-related accidents by years 63
5.4.6 Distribution of severe energy-related accidents by country and continent 66
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5.4.7 Distribution of severe non-energy-related accidents by
country and continent 67
5.5 Comparison ENSAD with Other Databases 69
5.6 Summary 71
5.7 References 71
6. EVALUATIONS FOR SPECIFIC ENERGY CHAINS 73
6.1 Principles and Assumptions for Evaluation 73
6.1.1 Energy chain stages 73
6.1.2 LPG chain 74
6.1.3 Allocation of damages to energy and non-energy uses of energy carriers 74
6.1.4 Allocation of damages to countries exporting of importing
energy carriers 76
6.1.5 References 78
6.2 Coal chain 80
6.2.1 Trends in severe accidents in the coal chain 80
6.2.2 Breakdown into coal chain stages 83
6.2.2.1 The "Exploration" and "Extraction" stages 83
6.2.2.2 The "Transport" stage 84
6.2.2.3 The "Conversion Plant" stage 85
6.2.2.4 The "Heating" & "Power Station" stage 85
6.2.2.5 "Waste storage and disposal" stages 86
6.2.3 Causes of coal accidents 87
6.2.4 Some highlights 89
6.2.5 References 89
6.3 Oil Chain 91
6.3.1 Crude oil products and trends in consumption 91
6.3.2 Breakdown of the oil chain into stages 93
6.3.3 Accidents in the oil chain 94
6.3.3.1 Severe oil accidents involving fatalities 94
6.3.3.2 Severe oil accidents involving injured 97
6.3.4 Fatal accidents in different oil chain stages 98
6.3.4.1 "Exploration" and "Extraction" stages 100
6.3.4.2 "Transport to Refinery" and "Regional Distribution" stages 103
6.3.4.3 "Refinery" stage 104
6.3.4.4 "Power plant" and "Heating" stages 105
6.3.5 Cost of oil accidents 105
6.3.5.1 "Exploration" and "Extraction" stages 106
6.3.5.2 "Transport to Refinery" stage 107
6.3.5.3 "Refinery" stage 109
6.3.5.4 "Regional Distribution" stage 110
6.3.5.5 "Heating/Power Plant" stage 110
6.3.6 Oil products involved in accidents 111
6.3.7 Oil spills 112
6.3.7.1 Oil spilled in "Exploration/Extraction" and "Transport to "Refinery" stages 112
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6.3.7.2 Claimed and awarded costs of oil spills 113
6.3.7.3 Oil spills and ecological impacts 115
6.3.8 Some highlights 118
6.3.9 References 119
6.4. Gas chain 120
6.4.1 Gas chain structure 120
6.4.2 World-wide consumption and trends for combustible gases 122
6.4.3 Non-energy uses of various gases 125
6.4.4 Accidents, fatalities and injured in the gas chain 125
6.4.4.1 Severe natural gas and LPG accidents involving fatalities 125
6.4.4.2 Severe natural gas and LPG accidents involving injured 127
6.4.4.3 Severe natural gas and LPG accidents involving evacuations 128
6.4.5 Breakdown into natural gas and LPG chain stages 130
6.4.5.1 Natural gas chain 130
6.4.5.2 LPG chain 132
6.4.6 Country-specific distribution of severe natural gas and LPG accidents 134
6.4.7 Some highlights 136
6.4.8 References 136
6.5 Nuclear Chain 137
6.5.1 Trends in nuclear-based electricity production 137
6.5.2 Historical nuclear accidents 137
6.5.3 Consequences and external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents 143
6.5.3.1 The concept of externalities and its implications 143
6.5.3.2 External Costs and Electricity Generation 145
6.5.3.3 Studies of External Costs of Nuclear Reactor Accidents 149
6.5.3.4 State-of-the-art Methodology and its Limitations 160
6.5.4 Some highlights 175
6.5.5 References 176
6.6 Hydro Chain 183
6.6.1 Trends in the production of electricity by hydro power 183
6.6.2 Trends in the construction of hydro power dams by type 183
6.6.3 Dam accidents and dam failure rates 186
6.6.3.1 Risk of accidents during the construction of dams 186
6.6.3.2 Evaluation of dam failure rates on the basis of historical data 186
6.6.3.3 Earlier dam failure studies based on historical records 188
6.6.3.4 Boundaries in the evaluation of dam accident rates on the basis of
historical data 189
6.6.3.5 Failure rates and years between failures for different dam types, time
periods and times of failure 192
6.6.3.6 Summary of the study of dam failures in the Western World 215
6.6.4 Characteristics of and accidents at Swiss dams 216
6.6.4.1 Supervision 216
6.6.4.2 Dam types at Swiss reservoirs 217
6.6.4.3 Heights of Swiss dams 218
6.6.4.4 Capacities and influxes of Swiss reservoirs 219
6.6.4.5 Dam incidents and accidents in Switzerland 220
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6.6.4.6 Applicability of historical data to the Swiss conditions 220
6.6.5 Frequency-consequence curves for dam accidents 223
6.6.5.1 Fatalities 223
6.6.5.2 Costs of dam failures 226
6.6.6 Are hydro power dams safer than dams with other purposes? 227
6.6.7 Some highlights 228
6.6.8 References 230
7. COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS 235
7.1 Scope of and Prerequisites for Comparative Evaluations 235
7.2 Severe Accidents Involving Fatalities 236
7.2.1 Number of severe accidents 236
7.2.2 Number of immediate fatalities 237
7.2.3 Number of immediate fatalities per event 239
7.2.4 Immediate fatality rates 240
7.2.5 Delayed fatality rates 241
7.2.6 Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents involving fatalities 243
7.3 Severe Accidents Involving Injured 246
7.3.1 Number of severe accidents 246
7.3.2 Number of injured 246
7.3.3 Number of injured per event 247
7.3.4 Number of injured per unit of produced energy 248
7.3.5 Frequency-consequence curves for severe accidents involving injured 248
7.4 Severe Accidents Involving Evacuees 250
7.4.1 Number of severe accidents 250
7.4.2 Number of evacuees 250
7.4.3 Number of evacuees per event 251
7.4.4 Number of evacuees per unit of produced energy 252
7.5 Severe Accidents Involving Economic Losses 252
7.5.1 Number of severe accidents 252
7.5.2 Total damage costs 253
7.5.3 Damage costs per accident 253
7.5.4 Damage cost rates 254
7.6 Overview of Person-related Consequence Indicators 255
7.7 References 258
8. MAIN LIMITATIONS 259
8.1 Limitations of the Database and its Uses 259
8.1.1 Completeness and recording accuracy 259
8.1.2 Quality of databases 262
8.1.3 Use of historical data 263
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8.2 Limitations of Probabilistic Safety Assessment 264
8.2.1 Intrinsic and practical PSA limitations 265
8.2.2 Low probability numbers and cut-off values 266
8.2.3 Implications for the uses of PSA 267
8.3 Scope Limitations of the Present Work 267
8.4 References 268
9. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 269
9.1 Summary of Research Results and Insights 269
9.1.1 PSI database and its merits 269
9.1.2 Evaluation of severe accidents for specific energy sources 273
9.1.2.1 Coal chain 273
9.1.2.2 Oil chain 273
9.1.2.3 Gas chain 275
9.1.2.4 Nuclear chain 276
9.1.2.5 Hydro chain 278
9.1.2.6 Most severe accidents with respect to various damage categories 280
9.1.3 Comparative assessment 282
9.1.3.1 Energy chain comparisons 282
9.1.3.2 Comparison with other large scale activities and natural disasters 300
9.1.3.3 Issues in comparative assessment of energy-related severe accidents 303
9.2 Recommendations for Future Work 304
9.3 References 307
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 311
APPENDICES
Appendix A: List of severe accidents within the coal chain in the period 1945 - 1996 A-l
Appendix B: List of severe accidents within the oil chain in the period 1969 - 1996 B-l
Appendix C: List of severe accidents within the gas chain in the period 1969 - 1996 C-l
Appendix D: Historical nuclear accidents D-l
D.I Survey of nuclear accidents D-l
D.2 Consequences of the Chernobyl accident D-17
List of abbreviations D-49
Glossary D-50
References D-51
Appendix E: Lists of dam accidents E-l
Appendix F: Aggregated, chain-specific data for comparative evaluation F-l
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List of Tables
4.3.1 Major accident database of relevance for the present work. 38
5.2.1 Different definitions of severe accidents. 42
5.3.1 Accident characteristics and keywords in ENSAD. 44
5.3.2 The keywords of the technological data of the accident. 45
5.3.3 Codes and explanations for the keyword "Region". 47
5.3.4 Abbreviations and meanings for the keyword "Activity data". 49
5.3.5 Entries for the keyword "Damaged facility" and explanations. 50
5.3.6 Entries and meanings for "General causes of the accident". 51
5.3.7 Entries and meanings for "Specific causes of the accident". 51
5.3.8 Entries for accident No. 1. 54
5.3.9 Entries for accident No. 2. 56
5.3.10 Entries for accident No. 3. 57
5.4.1 Overview of the number of accidents by type and by different damage categories, as included
in ENSAD. 58
5.4.2 Some major databases contributing to ENSAD. 60
5.4.3 Primary contributors to the non-energy-related accidents in ENSAD. 61
6.1.1 Stages of different energy chains. 73
6.2.1 Number of fatal accidents in relation to the number of employees by years for UK coal mines. 81
6.2.2 Number of fatalities and production by year for US coal mines. 82
6.2.3 Some large severe accidents in coal mining. 84
6.2.4 Worst catastrophes caused by coal-burning devices and coal-fired power plants emissions
under adverse weather conditions. 85
6.2.5 Some accidents in the stage "Power Station" with large monetary losses. 86
6.3.1 Most important oil products and their applications. 91
6.3.2 Worst accidents in the "Exploration" and ..Extraction" stages. 100
6.3.3 Worst severe accidents in the "Transport to Refinery" and "Regional Distribution" stages in
1969-1996. 103
6.3.4 Worst severe accidents in the "Refinery" stage. 105
6.3.5 Costs oft the worst (in monetary terms) accidents with costs larger than20 million 1996 US$ in
the "Exploration" stage as collected in ENSAD. 106
6.3.6 Costs oft the worst (in monetary terms) accidents with costs larger than 12 million 1996 US$
in the "Exploration" stage as according to ENSAD. 107
6.3.7 Costs oft the worst (in monetary terms) accidents with costs larger than 20 million 1996 US$
in the "Transport to Refinery" stage according to ENSAD. 108
6.3.8 Costs oft some of the worst (in monetary terms) accidents with costs larger than 25 million
1996 US$ in the "Refinery" stage according to ENSAD. 109
6.3.9 Costs oft the worst (in monetary terms) accidents with costs larger than 15 million 1996 US$
in the "Regional Distribution" stage according to ENSAD. 110
6.3.10 Costs of the worst (in monetary terms) accidents in the "Heating/Power Plant" stage according
to ENSAD. Ill
6.3.11 Oil discharged into the marine environment. 113
6.3.12 Sought costs by property owners for the Ixtoc 1 accident. 114
6.3.13 Summary of claimed and awarded costs of the Amoco Cadiz tanker accident in US$. 115
6.3.14 Selected major oil spills. 116
6.3.15 Claimed costs, amount of spilled oil, ecological impacts, distance from the coast, and weather
and current conditions from severe oil tanker and platform accidents. 117