Sectors & Skills: The Need for Policy Alignment

368 Pages·2010·5.51 MB·English

by  Andre Kraak (ed.)

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Published by HSRC Press
a Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa
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ac. www.hsrcpress.ac.za
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pr First published 2009
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w. ISBN (soft cover) 978-0-7969-2265-6
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w ISBN (pdf) 978-0-7969-2282-3
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d fr © 2009 Human Sciences Research Council
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wnl The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the
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d views or policies of the Human Sciences Research Council (‘the Council’) or of the South African
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e Department of Labour (‘the DoL’), or indicate that the Council or the DoL endorses the views of the
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authors. In quoting from this publication, readers are advised to attribute the source of the informa-
tion to the authors concerned and not to the Council or the DoL.
Copyedited by Karen Press
Typeset by Simon van Gend
Cover by FUEL Design
Printed by Logo Print, Cape Town, South Africa
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Sectors and Skills.indb 4 4/14/09 4:59:45 PM
Contents
List of tables and figures vii
Acronyms and abbreviations xi
IntroductIon
1 The need for alignment between industrial and skills development policies 2
Andre Kraak
HIgH-tecH sectors
2 On the brink? Skills demand and supply issues in the
South African automotive components industry 24
Justin Barnes
3 Aerospace 45
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c.z Erika Kraemer-Mbula
s.a 4 Three new technology platforms 64
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pr Jo Lorentzen and Il-haam Petersen
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w. resource-based sectors
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m 5 Metals beneficiation 86
o Johann Maree, Paul Lundall and Shane Godfrey
d fr 6 Chemicals 110
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nlo Rhoanda van Zyl
w 7 Wood, paper and pulp 132
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PublIc Infrastructure sectors
8 Energy 152
Jeff Lomey and Kent McNamara
9 Transport 174
Jan Havenga
labour-IntensIve sectors
10 Clothing and textiles 200
Mike Morris and Lyn Reed
11 Agro-processing 219
Duncan Pieterse
12 Creative industries 235
Avril Joffe and Monica Newton
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servIces
13 Growth and skills in the financial services sector of the South African economy 256
Sean Archer
14 Information and communication technologies 274
Andrew Paterson and Joan Roodt
15 Tourism 300
Nicci Earle-Malleson
conclusIon
16 Overcoming ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy-making: The need for differentiated skills development
policies in a highly uneven economic and labour market landscape 320
Andre Kraak
List of contributors 353
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Tables and figures
Tables
Table 1.1: Five organisational trends in the evolution of network relations between firms 8
Table 2.1: Summary of investment indicators amongst South African automotive component
manufacturers versus international firms in the SAABC database, 2003–2006 27
Table 2.2: Industry employment levels (average monthly figures), 2001–2005 28
Table 2.3: Employment demand for the period 2006–2010 33
Table 2.4: Employment demand for the period 2006–2015 33
Table 2.5: Management and professional skills profiles for 2006, 2010 and 2015; total demand
calculations for 2006–2010 and 2006–2015 34
Table 2.6: Artisan skills profile for 2006, 2010 and 2015; total demand calculations for
2006–2010 and 2006–2015 35
Table 2.7: Current skills gaps as identified during firm-level interviews 37
a Table 2.8: Comparative identification of scarce skills 41
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ac. Table 3.1: Aerospace manufactures, associated value added and level of skills 46
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s Table 3.2: Trade in aircraft, spacecraft and parts (R millions), 2003–2006 48
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pr Table 3.3: Changes in composition of aerospace employment in key occupations,
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hsr 1996–2005 54
w. Table 3.4: Percentage change in skills demand in the aerospace sector and the total
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w manufacturing sector, 1996–2005 55
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Table 3.5: Supply of engineers in HET: percentage of black and female graduates,
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d fr 1996–2005 56
oa Table 3.6: Identified key areas for training 58
wnl Table 3.7: Identified scarce skills in South African aerospace manufacturing 60
do Table 4.1: Scarce and critical skills in the engineering and technical professions, 2006 66
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e Table 5.1: Benefits of beneficiation: selling price, employment and investment in different
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stages of carbon steel 90
Table 5.2: Stages of beneficiation and levels achieved 91
Table 5.3: Mark-ups of basic metals prices, 2003/04 92
Table 5.4: Employment levels in the metal and engineering industry, 1996–2005 93
Table 5.5: Employment changes, 1996–2001 and 2001–2005 94
Table 5.6: Employment by occupation in the metal and engineering sector, 1999 & 2005 95
Table 5.7: Performance transmission across FET N-Level theoretical engineering courses,
1996–2005 100
Table 5.8: Higher education enrolment, output and qualification ratio, 1996–2005 103
Table 6.1: Average skills distribution in the different sub-sectors (%), 1996–2005 120
Table 8.1: Occupational ratios, by NQF level, and projected skills demand for the electrical
energy sector to 2012 161
Table 8.2: Comparison and assessment of skills demand and supply in the electrical energy
sector to 2012 168
Table 13.1: Structure of output and change in sectoral contribution to GDP growth, 1960
and 2006 257
Table 13.2: Skills breakdown of employment by sector, 1995, 2004 and 2006 263
Table 14.1: Number of enterprises, by sub-sector of the ICT sector, 2002 277
Table 14.2: GDP and employment in ICT sub-sectors, 1996–2005 279
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Table 14.3: Summary of ICT sub-sector growth and employment trajectories, 1996–2005 279
Table 14.4: Level of skill by sub-sector (percentage), 1996–1999 and 2000–2005 281
Table 14.5: Employment, by main occupation in the ICT sub-sectors, 1996–1999 compared with
2000–2005 284
Table 14.6: Employment of ICT-related professionals and associate professionals,
1996–2005 285
Table 14.7: Distribution of computer professionals and associate professionals, by economic
sector, 2003–2004 286
Table 14.8: Graduate trends in ICT-related fields of study in higher education, 1996–2005 289
Table 14.9: Graduates in ICT-cognate fields of study, by qualification level (%), 2005 290
Table 14.10: Share of graduate numbers in Computer Science and Data Processing, by
qualification level, 1996 and 2005 291
Table 14.11: Share of graduate numbers in Computer Science and Data Processing, by race, 1996
and 2005 291
Table 14.12: Share of graduate production among fields of specialisation within the Computer
Science and Data Processing field of study, 1999 and 2005 292
Table 14.13: Output of new graduates needed to address demand for CPAPs, 2005–2015 295
Table 15.1: Domestic and foreign tourism, compound annual growth rate, by percentage,
2005–2006 303
Table 15.2: Comparisons of estimates of total enterprises, by tourism sub-sector,
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c. 2000–2007 305
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s. Table 16.1: Criteria used in the allocation of sectors to specific labour market segments 327
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src Figures
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w Figure 2.1: South African automotive components industry’s employment composition, 2006,
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m and projected levels, 2010 and 2015 30
o Figure 2.2: Projected employment composition of the South African automotive components
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o Figure 2.3: Employment demand based on employee turnover, 2006 to 2010 and 2015 32
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w Figure 2.4: Average industry recruitment lead times 37
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e d Figure 2.5: Training expenditure as a percentage of remuneration: South African average (2001–
Fre 2006) versus international average (2006 only) 38
Figure 3.1: Aerospace industry’s domestic linkages to other economic sectors in
South Africa 49
Figure 3.2: Occupational profile of the aerospace industry relative to the total manufacturing
sector, average 2001–2005 54
Figure 3.3: Intake of apprentices to the DCLD, 1990–2007 57
Figure 3.4: Immigration and emigration of engineers and related technologists, 1998–2003 59
Figure 4.1: Skills supply and demand in engineering and engineering technology,
2000–2006 68
Figure 4.2: Skills supply and demand in chemistry, 2000–2006 69
Figure 4.3: Skills supply and demand in physics, 2000–2006 69
Figure 4.4: Skills supply and demand in mathematical sciences, 2000–2006 70
Figure 4.5: PhD graduate output in the life sciences, 1996–2005 72
Figure 4.6: PhD enrolments in the life sciences, 2000–2005 73
Figure 4.7: PhD graduate output in agricultural and renewable resources, 1996–2005 76
Figure 4.8: PhD graduate output in engineering and engineering technology, 1996–2005 77
Figure 4.9: PhD graduate output in the pharmaceutical and mathematical sciences,
1996–2005 77
Figure 4.10: Skills supply and demand in agriculture and life sciences, 2000–2006 78
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Figure 4.11: Skills supply and demand in chemical engineering and engineering technology,
2000–2006 78
Figure 4.12: Skills supply and demand in pharmaceutical sciences, 2000–2006 79
Figure 5.1: Trends in employment in the metal industries, 1996–2005 93
Figure 5.2: Employment by occupation in metal & engineering, 1999 and 2005 95
Figure 5.3: Higher education enrolment and output, 1996–2005 102
Figure 6.1: Strategic sub-sector and standard industrial classifications of the chemical
sector 112
Figure 6.2: Chemical sector value chain 113
Figure 7.1: Management objectives for plantation forests, by area, 1994–2004 134
Figure 7.2: Sales of forest timber (real 2000 rand values), 1994–2004 135
Figure 7.3: Primary processing exports (real 2000 values), 1994–2005 136
Figure 7.4: Primary processing imports (real 2000 values), 1994–2005 137
Figure 7.5: South African paper milling capacity, by company, 2005 138
Figure 7.6: Domestic paper sales (real 2001 rand values), 2001–2006 139
Figure 7.7: Paper exports (real 2000 values), 1994–2006 139
Figure 7.8: Paper imports (real 2000 values), 1994–2006 140
Figure 7.9: Wood furniture exports (real 2000 values), 1994–2005 140
Figure 7.10: Wood furniture imports (real 2000 values), 1994–2005 141
Figure 8.1: Formal employment levels in electricity-related sub-sectors, 1996–2005 157
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c. Figure 8.2: Energy sources for electricity generation in South Africa, 2001 158
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s. Figure 8.3: Eskom capacity status and maximum demand forecast, 1996–2008 159
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pr Figure 8.4: Projected maximum energy demand, 1951–2031 160
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sr Figure 8.5: Least-cost combination of the 10 000 GWh renewable energy target 162
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w. Figure 8.6: Changing NQF levels of Electrical Trades Theory output from FET colleges,
w 1996–2005 165
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m Figure 8.7: N6 output in engineering studies from FET colleges, 1996–2005 166
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nl productivity 176
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o Figure 9.3: Formal employment growth of the TSC industry, 1996–2005 177
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e Figure 9.4: Comparison of formal employment in the transport, postal and telecommunications
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Figure 9.5: Estimated formal employment split between passenger and freight transport,
1995–2005 178
Figure 9.6: Fields of study in engineering and transportation, 1996–2005 180
Figure 9.7: Distribution of skills bands for the TSC industry (formal employment),
1996–2005 181
Figure 9.8: Low skills distribution of occupational category for the industry (formal employment),
2000–2005 182
Figure 9.9: Growth in tonkilometres per worker compared to growth in real GDP,
1995–2005 183
Figure 9.10: Tonkilometres per employee (two components of SA Rail compared to global
railways) 184
Figure 9.11: Growth in tonkilometres per worker compared to growth in real GDP per worker,
1995–2005 185
Figure 9.12: Growth in passenger journeys per worker compared to growth in real GDP,
1995–2005 185
Figure 9.13: Growth in passenger journeys per worker compared to growth in real GDP per
worker, 1995–2005 186
Figure 9.14: Mode comparison, passenger journeys per worker for short-distance transport,
1995–2005 187
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Figure 9.15: Growth in long-distance passenger journeys per worker, 1995–2005 187
Figure 9.16: South African freight transport as a percentage of world figures, 2004 189
Figure 9.17: South African freight transport network segments (with mode differentiation) 189
Figure 9.18: Long-haul surface journeys as a percentage of world figures and expected shift in
long-haul journeys if economy matures 193
Figure 9.19: Degree of skills shift required to enable step change from long-haul road to long-haul
rail freight transport 196
Figure 11.1: Agro-processing output (constant 2000 rands), 1995–2006 220
Figure 11.2: Agro-processing employment, 1995–2006 220
Figure 11.3: Agro-processing exports (constant 2000 rands), 1995–2006 221
Figure 12.1: Composition of the creative economy 236
Figure 12.2: The film and television value chain 239
Figure 12.3: The craft value chain 243
Figure 14.1: Relationship between the ICT producer sector and ICT ‘user’ sectors 276
Figure 14.2: Employment trends in the major subdivisions of the ICT sector, 1996–2005 280
Figure 14.3: Employment in the ICT sector, by sub-sector and main occupation, 1996–2005 283
Figure 14.4: Average provincial distribution of computer professionals and associate professionals
and GDP, 2000–2005 287
Figure 14.5: Graduates in ICT-cognate fields of study, 1996–2005 288
Figure 14.6: Graduation trends in Computer Science and Data Processing, by qualification level
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c. and race, 1996–2005 290
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s. Figure 14.7: Comparison of changes in remuneration between all professionals and associate
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sr Figure 15.1: Foreign tourist arrivals to South Africa, 1966–2006 301
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w. Figure 15.2: Domestic versus foreign tourism value contribution, 2005–2006 302
w Figure 15.3: Contribution to national GDP and employment per tourist category, 1994,
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m 2000 and 2005 302
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d fr Figure 16.1: A six-part segmentation of the South African labour market 326
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