SECRET WARS Princeton Studies in International History and Politics G. John Ikenberry, Marc Trachtenberg, and William C. Wohlforth, Series Editors For a full list of books in this series see https://press.princeton.edu/catalogs/series/title/princeton-studies-in-international-history-and- politics.html RECENT TITLES Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics by Austin Carson Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict by Keren Yarhi-Milo Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth Century by Seva Gunitsky Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal Internationalism and Its Crisis Today by Tony Smith Powerplay: The Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia by Victor D. Cha Economic Interdependence and War by Dale C. Copeland Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations by Keren Yarhi-Milo Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict by Vipin Narang The Cold War and After: History, Theory, and the Logic of International Politics by Marc Trachtenberg America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy, Expanded Edition by Tony Smith Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order by G. John Ikenberry Secret Wars Covert Conflict in International Politics Austin Carson PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD Copyright © 2018 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR press.princeton.edu All Rights Reserved ISBN 978-0-691-18176-9 Library of Congress Control Number 2018948536 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available Editorial: Fred Appel and Thalia Leaf Production Editorial: Brigitte Pelner Jacket/Cover Design: Amanda Weiss Jacket/Cover Credit: Men of the 3rd Ranger Company, 3rd Infantry Division, adjust their gear before undertaking a dawn patrol across the Imjin River, Korea. 17 April 1951. Korea / US Army Center of Military History Production: Erin Suydam Publicity: Tayler Lord Copyeditor: Karen Verde This book has been composed in Adobe Text Pro and Gotham Printed on acid-free paper ∞ Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For Sarah, Kai, and Zoe. You are my world. CONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 2 A Limited-War Theory of Secrecy 26 3 The Emergence of Covert Warfare 75 4 The Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) 99 5 The Korean War (1950–1953) 142 6 The Vietnam War (1964–1968) 187 7 The War in Afghanistan (1979–1986) 238 8 Conclusion 283 Index 317 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The idea for the book came when I was a graduate student in a superb creative environment in Columbus, Ohio. The Ohio State graduate program produced excellent International Relations (IR) scholars during the time I was there. Several of my fellow Ph.D. students were especially helpful as I shaped the idea into a dissertation, including Eric Grynaviski, Jason Keiber, Josh Kertzer, and Eleonora Mattiacci. The IR faculty at Ohio State created the perfect environment for me to flourish. Bear Braumoeller, Rick Herrmann, Ted Hopf, Jennifer Mitzen, Randy Schweller, Alex Thompson, Alex Wendt, and others encouraged us to creatively analyze the diverse theoretical and empirical world of IR. Rick, Jennifer, and Randy were critical in helping me mold the idea into a dissertation as committee members. Developments in my wife’s career brought me to Washington, D.C., and George Washington University, where I wrote every word of the dissertation that would become this book. Charlie Glaser generously provided visiting fellowships for two years at his Institute for Security and Conflict Studies, where I was integrated into a new and vibrant intellectual community. Several people were especially important to my development as a scholar and the substance of my project, including Alex Downes, Elizabeth Saunders, and Caitlin Talmdage. Graduate students there formed a new peer support group. Particularly important for comments and friendships were Julia MacDonald, Tristan Volpe, Lindsey O’Rourke, and Josh Shifrinson. Princeton’s Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance under Helen Milner provided much-needed time for converting a messy dissertation into more polished work. As a postdoctoral fellow, the seeds of two articles that would later appear in International Organization (“Facing Off and Saving Face” and “The Spotlight’s Harsh Glare”) were planted. You could do a lot worse in ten months in central New Jersey. My friendship and collaboration with Keren Yarhi-Milo also started at Princeton, for which I remain extremely grateful. Most memorable, however, was the colorful cohort of postdocs. I spent many hours laughing with, and learning from, Allison Carnegie, Julia Gray, Jeff Kucik, Don Leonard, Nimah Mazaheri, Thomas Zeitzoff, and Bo Zhu. My time at Georgia State was brief but significant. Carrie Manning and John Duffield were model senior colleagues, both welcoming and wise in their advice. Shawn Powers and Amelia Arsenault were colleagues but, more importantly, dear friends who made my time in Reynoldstown incredibly enjoyable. Their only mistake was selfishly keeping Fidel the cat. Being a colleague of the incomparable Jelena Subotic was a highlight. Her advice, solicited and unsolicited, was equal parts useful and hilarious. Two experiences before the academy also shaped the book I would go on to write. One was the decade I spent in competitive policy debate. While hundreds of coaches, teammates, friends, and rival debaters contributed along the way, especially important were my head coaches. Ellen Zwarensteyn watched my first practice debate as a high school sophomore and coached me to a win in my last debate at the Michigan state championship. I can never repay her for what she invested in me. Later, the only thing I cared about while at Michigan State was success at debate. Will Repko saw talent in me that I couldn’t see myself. His tactical and strategic acumen, his passion, and his humor were essential to my achieving success and deeply influenced my intellectual development. My time at the Center for Strategic and International Studies was another formative experience that influenced the ideas in this book. Immersion in the Washington, D.C., policy environment shaped how I think about IR and gave me my first taste of archival research. Watching the run-up to the Iraq War inspired my enduring interest in how governments use secrecy and intelligence to manage optics. The opportunity all started with Alex Lennon opening the door to CSIS with an internship in 2002, for which I remain eternally grateful. My writing and thinking were vastly improved by the mentorship of Bob Einhorn. More significantly, he gave me my first salaried job and, later, helped me get into a great Ph.D. program. I can only hope to emulate his generosity with the students I now mentor. Turning to the present, the University of Chicago has been an ideal environment to complete the book. My colleagues have played an essential role. I owe a particularly large debt of gratitude to John
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