Second National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Armenia under United ...

134 Pages·2010·3.46 MB·English

REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA
MINISTRY OF NATURE PROTECTION
SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
UNDER THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
ON CLIMATE CHANGE
The Second National Communication is developed by the Ministry of Na-
ture Protection of the Republic of Armenia with the funding of the Global
Environmental Facility and support of the United Nations Development
Program in Armenia in the frames of the "Enabling Activities for the Prepa-
ration of Armenia's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC"
Project.
2010
UDC 502
Second National Communication on Climate Change.
Yerevan (2010). "Lusabats" Publishing House. 132 p.
PROJECT PERSONNEL FOR COORDINATION OF THE PROCESS
Dr. Aram Gabrielyan Project National Coordinator, UNFCCC Focal Point
Dr. Diana Harutyunyan UNDP Climate Change Programme Coordinator
Ms. Naira Aslanyan UNDP/GEF Project Team Leader
Ms. Rubina Stepanyan UNDP Climate Change Programme Associate
Editor: Dr. Mikhail Vermishev
Translator: Aram Bayanduryan
Designers: Nara Mendelyan (cover page), Vardan Vardanyan and
"Lusabats" Publishing House (internal pages)
Photos: provided by Climate Change Information Center of Armenia and
by Vladimir Saroyan
ISBN 978-9939-808-60-4
Ministry of Nature Protection of RA
Address: Government Building #3
Republic Square, Yerevan 0010, Armenia
Tel: (37410) 583932, 583920
Fax: (37410) 583933
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Web-site: www.mnp.am, www.nature-ic.am
© Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia

LIST OF EXPERTS
LIST OF EXPERTS
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES Climate Change Scenarios
Dr. Mikhail Vermishev Ms. Anahit Hovsepyan
GHG INVENTORY Agriculture
Coordination Dr. Alvina Avagyan
Dr. Petros Tozalakyan Dr. Lyonik Khachatryan
Mr. Martiros Tsarukyan (consultant) Dr. Rudik Nazaryan
Dr. Tigran Chitchyan
Energy Dr. Khachik Sargsyan
Dr. Vahan Sargsyan (consultant) Mr. Gagik Manucharyan (consultant)
"Scientific Research Institute of Energy" CJSC Mr. Valeri Azoyan (consultant)
LULUCF Water resources
Mr. Artur Gevorgyan Dr. Beniamin Zakaryan
Dr. Levon Chilingaryan
Agriculture Dr. Boris Mnatsakanyan
Dr. Rudik Paronyan Dr. Vilen Sargsyan
Dr. Hrachik Nikoghosyan
Industrial Processes and Solvents Use Dr. Vahagn Tonoyan
Mr. Vram Tevosyan
Ms. Anzhela Turlikyan (consultant) Forestry
Mr. Armen Gevorgyan
Waste
Biodiversity
Norik Manukyan
Dr. Mark Kalashyan
Quality Control/ Quality Assurance
Mr. Vahram Jalalyan Lands
Dr. Hunan Ghazaryan
Cadastre Data Management
Mr. Eduard Martirosyan Wetlands
Dr. Susanna Hakobyan
GHG EMISSIONS REDUCTION
Coordination Human Health
Dr. Artem Kharazyan Dr. Ara Keshishyan
Dr. Levon Sahakyan
GHG reduction scenarios
Dr. Mikhail Vermishev Settlements and Infrastructures
Dr. Tigran Sadoyan
Energy Dr. Vahagn Tonoyan
"Scientific Research Institute
of Energy" CJSC OTHER INFORMATION
Dr. Suren Gyurjinyan Coordination
Ms. Astghine Pasoyan Mr. Aram Ter-Zakaryan
Agriculture Systematic Observations
Dr. Petros Tozalakyan Ms. Anahit Hovsepyan
"Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service"
Forestry SNCO
Dr. Armen Nalbandyan Dr. Hamlet Melkonyan (consultant)
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Education and Science
Coordination Dr. Anahit Gasparyan
Dr. Georgi Fayvush Dr. Gayane Poghosyan (consultant)
V

TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD III
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY XIII
1 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1
1.1 State structure 2
1.2 Geographical location and natural resources 2
1.3 Climate 3
1.4 Population 4
1.5 Economy 4
1.6 Energy 5
1.7 Industry 6
1.8 Transport 7
1.9 Agriculture 8
1.10 Forestry 9
1.11 Waste 10
1.12 Legal and institutional bases for implementation of UNFCCC 10
2 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 13
2.1 Methodology and data sources used 14
2.2 Greenhouse gas emissions for 2000 16
2.3 Greenhouse gas emission trends, 1990-2006 17
2.4 Sectoral inventories 19
2.4.1 Energy 19
2.4.2 Industrial processes 20
2.4.3 Solvent use 21
2.4.4 Agriculture 22
2.4.5 Land use, land use change and forestry 23
2.4.6 Waste 24
2.5 Analysis of the key sources of greenhouse gas emissions 25
2.6 Quality control and quality assurance 25
2.7 Assessment of uncertainties 26
3 POLICIES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE 29
3.1 Legislation 30
3.2 National programs 31
3.3 Sectoral programs 31
3.4 Implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol 33
4 PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 35
4.1 Methodology 36
4.2 Projections of total greenhouse gas emissions 36
4.3 Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors 37
4.3.1 Energy 37
4.3.2 Industrial processes 40
4.3.3 Agriculture 41
4.3.4 Forestry 42
4.3.5 Waste 43
5 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND
ADAPTATION 47
5.1 Climate change observed in Armenia 48
5.2 Climate change scenarios for Armenia 48
5.3 Water resources 54
VII
ARMENIA´S SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION
5.3.1 Vulnerability assessment 54
5.3.2 Adaptation measures 58
5.4 Agriculture 59
5.4.1 Vulnerability assessment 59
5.4.2 Adaptation measures 62
5.5 Biological diversity and natural ecosystems 62
5.5.1 Vulnerability assessment 64
5.5.2 Adaptation measures 67
5.6 Settlements and infrastructures 68
5.6.1 Vulnerability and damage assessment 68
5.6.2 Adaptation measures 71
5.7 Human health 72
5.7.1 Vulnerability assessment 72
5.7.2 Adaptation measures 75
6 OTHER INFORMATION 79
6.1 Research and systematic observation 80
6.1.1 Systematic observation of climate 80
6.1.2 Programs and studies contributing to addressing climate change issues 83
6.2 Education, personnel training and public awareness 85
6.2.1 Education and personnel training 85
6.2.2 Public awareness 87
7 GAPS, CONSTRAINTS AND CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS 91
ANNEX 99
LIST OF TABLES
Table ES-1 Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia (Gg CO eq) XIX
2
Table ES-2 Greenhouse gas emissions/removals by sectors (Gg CO eq) XIX
2
Table ES-3 Projections of greenhouse gas emissions by gases (Gg) XXII
Table ES-4 Greenhouse gas emissions by sectors in 2005 and projections by 2020 (Gg CO eq) XXII
2
Table ES-5 Greenhouse gas reduction potential by sectors by 2020 (Gg CO eq) XXIII
2
Table ES-6 Forecasted changes in river flow XXIII
Table ES-7 Forecasted changes in the main elements of Lake Sevan water balance XXIII
Table ES-8 Assessment of water resources balance elements in the case of projected climate XXIV
change
Table 1-1 Main macroeconomic indicators of Armenia, 1995-2006 4
Table 1-2 Structure of the GDP of Armenia, 1990-2006 (%) 5
Table 1-3 Energy consumption in Armenia, 1990-2006 (PJ) 5
Table 1-4 Fuel consumption by sectors, 2000-2006 (PJ) 6
Table 1-5 Transport sector indicators, 1990-2006 8
Table 1-6 Number of livestock and poultry (thousand heads) 8
Table 1-7 Production of main types of agricultural output in Armenia (thousand ton) 9
Table 2-1 Elaborated and recalculated greenhouse gas inventory years, by sectors 14
Table 2-2 Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 2000 (Gg) 16
Table 2-3 Emissions of CO , CH and N O, 1990-2006 (Gg CO eq) 18
2 4 2 2
Table 2-4 Greenhouse gas emissions by sectors, 1990-2006 (Gg CO eq) 18
2
Table 2-5 Greenhouse gas emissions with indirect greenhouse effect and sulphur dioxide 19
Table 2-6 Greenhouse gas emissions in the "Energy" sector, 1990, 1997-2006 (Gg CO eq) 20
2
VIII
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table 2-7 Emissions by gases in the "Energy" sector, 1990, 1997-2006 (Gg CO eq) 21
2
Table 2-8 Greenhouse gas emissions in the "Agriculture" sector, 1990-2006 (Gg CO eq) 22
2
Table 2-9 Net flows of greenhouse gases in the “LULUCF” sector, 1990 and 2000 (Gg CO eq) 23
2
Table 2-10 Greenhouse gas emissions in the "Waste" sector, 1990-2006 (Gg CO eq) 24
2
Table 2-11 Analysis of key sources 26
Table 2-12 Uncertainties of greenhouse gas emissions from key sources 27
Table 3-1 CDM projects being implemented or envisaged in Armenia, 2008 33
Table 4-1 Greenhouse gas emissions by types in 2005 and projections by 2020 (Gg) 36
Table 4-2 Total greenhouse gas emissions by sectors in 1990-2005 and projections by 2020 37
(Gg CO eq)
2
Table 4-3 Greenhouse gas reduction potential by sectors (Gg CO eq) 37
2
Table 4-4 Proportional values of greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, 2005 and projections 37
by 2020
Table 4-5 The actual use of renewable energy sources in 2005 and projected use by 2020 (GWh) 38
Table 4-6 Energy production in 2005 and projections by 2020 (GWh) 38
Table 4-7 Greenhouse gas emissions in the "Energy" sector in 2000, 2005 and projections 39
by 2020 (Gg CO eq)
2
Table 4-8 Emissions of CO , CH , N O in the “Energy” sector in 2000, 2005 and projections 39
2 4 2
by 2020 (Gg CO eq)
2
Table 4-9 Potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the "Energy" sector by 2020 40
(Gg CO eq)
2
Table 4-10 Fuel saving potential by 2020 (thousand toe) 40
Table 4-11 Energy consumption and shares of greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, 2005 and 41
projections by 2020
Table 4-12 CH emissions in the "Agriculture" sector in 2005 and projections by 2020 (Gg) 42
4
Table 4-13 Net CO flows in forests in 2005 and projections by 2030 (Gg) 43
2
Table 4-14 Greenhouse gas emissions in the "Waste" sector in 2005 and projections by 2020 43
(Gg)
Table 5-1 Changes in annual average temperature and precipitation in Armenia according to 51
MAGICC/SCHENGEN model under A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC
Table 5-2 Changes in seasonal and annual temperatures (°C) compared to the average for 51
1961-1990, according to PRECIS model under A2 scenario of IPCC
Table 5-3 Deviations of seasonal and annual precipitation (%) compared to the average for 52
1961-1990, according to PRECIS model under A2 scenario of IPCC
Table 5-4 Comparison of the actual annual river flow in Armenia in 1991-2006 with the aver- 55
age for 1961-1990
Table 5-5 Forecasted changes in total river flow compared to the average for 1961-1990 57
Table 5-6 Vulnerability assessment of the annual actual river flow in Lake Sevan basin compared 57
to the average for 1961-1990, according to various climate change scenarios
Table 5-7 Forecasted changes in the main elements of Lake Sevan water balance 58
Table 5-8 Water balance elements of Armenia's water resources and their forecasted changes 58
Table 5-9 Compensations paid to farms that suffered from dangerous weather phenomena 62
in 2003-2008
Table 5-10 Adaptation measures for agriculture in Armenia 63
Table 5-11 Vulnerability of Armenia's forests to climate change by 2030 67
Table 5-12 Distribution of landslides in Armenia by marzes 69
Table 5-13 Areas prone to mudflows in Armenia by marzes 71
Table 5-14 Climate change related priority adaptation measures in the health sector 74
Table 6-1 Current system of hydro-meteorological monitoring in Armenia 80
Table 6-2 System of hydro-meteorological information provision 82
Table 7-1 Gaps, constraints, limitations and needs to address climate change issues 92
IX