Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

93 Pages·2012·9.27 MB·English

by  Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions

Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal
Prediction

Polar Research Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

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Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF ARCTIC SEA ICE RESEARCH IN SUPPORT OF
SEASONAL TO DECADAL PREDICTION

JACKIE RICHTER-MENGE (Co-Chair), Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory
JOHN E. WALSH (Co-Chair), University of Alaska, Fairbanks
LAWSON W. BRIGHAM, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
MARIKA HOLLAND, National Center for Atmospheric Research
SON V. NGHIEM, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
ROBERT RAYE, Shell Projects and Technology
REBECCA WOODGATE,* University of Washington

NRC Staff

KATIE THOMAS, Study Director
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
AMANDA PURCELL, Research Associate
ALEXANDRA JAHN, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant

*Member through June 2012
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

POLAR RESEARCH BOARD

JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMY LAUREN LOVECRAFT, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
MOLLY E. MCCAMMON, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
VLADIMIR E. ROMANOVSKY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York

Ex-Officio Members

JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Maryland, Solomons
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco

NRC Staff

CHRIS ELFRING, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

Preface

Arctic sea ice plays important roles workshop focused on current major
in moderating global climate and challenges in sea ice prediction.
influencing oceanic and atmospheric Workshop participants were asked to
circulation. Reductions in Arctic sea ice identify new methods, observations, and
thickness and extent have been observed technologies that might advance
over the past few decades and the trend seasonal to decadal sea ice predictive
of shrinking Arctic sea ice cover is capabilities through improved
expected to continue. While there are understanding of the Arctic system (see
intrinsic limitations on Arctic sea ice Box 1.1 for full statement of task).
predictability, some predictability The need for sea ice predictions is
appears to reside in the initial ice/ocean driven by new challenges and
state and in the longer-term trend. opportunities created by a changing
However, our limited understanding of Arctic environment. Advancements are
the coupled and complex interactions necessary to address the growing and
among Arctic sea ice, oceans, increasingly urgent demands from a
atmosphere, and land also hinders our broad array of stakeholders, with
ability to predict the rate and magnitude concerns spanning various direct and
of future variations. In addition, indirect scientific, technological, and
although several efforts are under way to societal impacts such as the planning for
better understand the role of Arctic sea new shipping ports, oil and gas
ice in the broader context of the Arctic exploration, and increased marine
climate system, and to forecast sea ice, transportation, as well as widespread
there is also a need to better understand ecological changes.
the role that sea ice plays beyond the The workshop was held May 9-10,
polar region. 2012, at the University of Colorado in
The National Research Council Boulder (Appendix B). Nearly 50
(NRC) Committee on the Future of workshop participants represented a
Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of wide spectrum of expertise in the Arctic
Seasonal to Decadal Prediction was sea ice community. Key was the
tasked to plan and conduct a workshop participation of a range of stakeholders
with the goal of fostering a dialogue including scientists together with end-
between polar scientists, agency user groups. This workshop organization
representatives, and stakeholders. The helped focus the workshop discussions
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies
viii Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies
on scientific research needs in the entire committee, we also want to
connection with end-user operations. express gratitude to those associated
The output from the workshop with the NRC staff who provided keen
served to inform the committee in the insights, able direction, and tremendous
preparation of this report. It is expected support to our endeavor. This includes
that the report will be of interest to Alexandra Jahn, a Christine Mirzayan
agencies with Arctic research programs Fellow, who prepared a background
(e.g., National Science Foundation, document that was distributed to all
Office of Naval Research, National workshop participants, summarizing
Aeronautics and Space Administration, recent related work and activities. It also
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and includes board director Chris Elfring,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric research associate Lauren Brown, project
Administration) as well as policy assistants Amanda Purcell and Elizabeth
makers, nongovernmental organizations, Finkelman, and especially our
and others concerned about climate exceptional study director Katie
change impacts in the North. It is also Thomas. Last but certainly not least is a
anticipated that agencies with polar word of thanks to the dedicated
operational and planning committee members, who volunteered
responsibilities, such as the U.S. Navy or countless hours to this effort and
the U.S. Coast Guard, will find the report enthusiastically contributed their
of interest. expertise to the organization and
Many individuals contributed to this implementation of the workshop and
report. Particular thanks go to those who preparation of this report.
took time from their busy schedules to
participate in the workshop. Whether as Jackie Richter-Menge and John Walsh,
panel members, breakout group leaders, Co-Chairs
Committee on the Future of Arctic Sea Ice
moderators, rapporteurs, or
Research in Support of Seasonal to decadal
contributors, the participants readily
Prediction
demonstrated the advantages of an

integrative approach in identifying and
discussing complex issues. On behalf of

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

Acknowledgments

This report was reviewed in draft Humfrey Melling, Fisheries and
form by individuals chosen for their Oceans Canada
diverse perspectives and technical Don Perovich, Cold Regions
expertise in accordance with the Research and Engineering
procedures approved by the National Laboratory
Research Council (NRC) Report Review Caryn Rea, ConocoPhillips
Committee. The purpose of this Mike Steele, University of
independent review is to provide candid Washington
and critical comments that will assist the
NRC in making its published report as Although these reviewers provided
sound as possible, and to ensure that the many constructive comments and
report meets NRC institutional suggestions, they did not see the final
standards for objectivity, evidence, and draft of the report before its release. The
responsiveness to the study charge. The review of this report was overseen by
review comments and draft manuscript Robin Bell, Lamont-Doherty Earth
remain confidential to protect the Observatory of Columbia University.
integrity of the deliberative process. We Appointed by the NRC, she was
thank the following individuals for their responsible for making certain that an
review of this report: independent examination of this report
was carried out in accordance with
LCDR Ken Boda, U.S. Coast Guard institutional procedures and that all
Jennifer Kay, National Center for review comments were carefully
Atmospheric Research considered. Responsibility for the final
Brendan Kelly, Office of Science and content of this report rests entirely with
Technology Policy the authoring committee and the
institution.

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