seaford house paper 2013

39 Pages·2013·1.12 MB·English

by  Aamir Abbasi

Royal College of Defence Studies
SEAFORD HOUSE PAPER
The Arab Uprising:
Its causes and the role that Islam can play
Brigadier Aamir Abbasi
2013
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© Army, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 2013
The Arab Uprising:
Its Causes and the Role that Islam can Play

Brigadier Aamir Abbasi
Army
Islamic Republic of Pakistan

July 2013
© Army, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Young bloggers and twitters in the Arab World (Middle East and North
Africa) surprised the world by staging non-violent demonstrations that ended
the three decades old dictatorial regimes in a record time. While the
conditions for such revolutions always existed in the oppressive practices of
the governments, socio-economic injustices and rampant corruption, but no
one had predicted it could come about so soon. This study attempts at
inquiring into the causes that led to such mass uprisings, the role that the US
and the West played in training of the young bloggers, the genesis of Islamist
political parties and finally analyses the prospective role that Islam might play
in the region’s emerging dynamics.
The process initiated in December 2010 in Tunisia only marks the
beginning of a long drawn struggle and is definitely not an end in itself. The
future remains uncertain. However, the salvation lies in continuation of the
core values of liberty freedom and democracy, duly embodied in Islamic
references, for which the people had originally revolted.
Introduction
In less than 12 months, commencing December 2010, four dictators in the
Arab world were unseated following decades of total authoritarian rule – Zine el-
Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar Qaddafi in Libya and
Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen. A year earlier no one could have predicted such a
dramatic happening. Yet this happened, and largely through a peaceful process. The
case for such a change was brewing in the Arab world for a long time.
This region, as a whole, has suffered in the recent history by multitudes of
factors. The era of colonisation gradually faded after the end of World War II. Around
the same time the creation of the state of Israel in the heart of the region sent it into
a perpetual state of conflict and chaos. Most of the countries, soon after
independence, fell in the hands of dictatorial regimes, and thus the democratic
practices, unfortunately, could just not take root. Most of these despotic leaders
strengthened their rules in the name of Pan-Arabism and hostility against Israel
internally, while portraying themselves as watchdogs against Islamists for external
powers.
The US and the Western world, which was in dire need of the energy
resources, supported the undemocratic governments in the region as long as their
economic and strategic interests were met. The double standards displayed by the
US and the West allowed the dictatorial regimes to get stronger while subjecting the
common public to a period of protracted oppression. Although, the oil and gas boom
did result in some positive economic indicators, yet the biggest beneficiaries
remained the corrupt rulers and their cronies. While they accumulated personal
assets and hefty bank accounts, mostly in Western banks, they failed to utilise this
wealth for diversifying respective countries’ economies or transferring the benefits to
the common people. The sum-total of all such socio-economic disparities and lack of
political participation gradually built a storm that no one had predicted could come
about so soon.
The phenomena of mass protests in the Arab World (Middle East and North
Africa) and the ensuing, largely peaceful, processes symbolized a new awakening
for the people of the region. It heralded a new dawn for the Arab World, ended the
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decades old regimes of many a despots and set in motion the processes for more.
More importantly, it proved to the world that the Arabs, too, could stand for the core
values that, hitherto, were considered the domain of the Western World.
The initiators of such mass movements in the Arab World involving millions of
participants were not the religio-political parties or the Jihadists or even Al-Qaeda
affiliates. They were the young literate common people who used social media to
connect within the country and with the outside world, to express their sentiments
freely and to protest against the oppression of the ruling Junta. They used Facebook,
Twitter, Blogs, cell phones and other means to carry out their activities without,
mostly, catching the attention of the government apparatus. This computer literate
community included people from all walks of life. They crossed the boundaries of
cast, creed and religion – included men and women, Shia and Sunnis and believers
of other religions as well. Together they were protesting for the core values of liberty,
freedom and justice, socio-economic equality and democracy. However, they still
were not demanding anything that was contradictory to the basic injunctions of Islam.
They were largely Muslims and their demands then and even today remain within the
bounds and norms of Islamic teachings; as being educated and enlightened, they
understood better than the orthodox Mosque Imam that Islam was completely
compatible and in consonance with modernity and progress.
This study is aimed at finding the causes of the uprising, the role of external
factors, inception and evolution of political Islam and the role that it can play in
determining the future. While making passing references to the entire region, the
study focuses on the developments in Tunisia and Egypt only for drawing relevant
inferences.

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Part I
Socio-political Order in the Arab World
Since independence from colonial regimes, most of the countries in MENA
inherited dictatorial regimes. Gradually but surely, one dictator after the other
consolidated control in the respective countries. The public besides being financially
deprived also felt frustrated due to lack of political activism in the country. The
methods used by these dictators remained, generally, the same and can best be
described as1:-
 These dictators consolidated their regimes through corruption, fraud and
nepotism. They governed through oppressive and brutal practices rather
than establishing the rule of law. Hence, the results of almost all elections
and voting in the Arab world typically produced a 99% support in favour of
the ruler. Parliaments and peoples’ assemblies served to extend further
legitimacy and backing to the head of state, rather than to legislate or to
limit executive powers.
 The one-party system became the operative ruling measure in the newly
formed Arab states. Attempts to organize political parties and/or
movements other than the ruling regime were subjected to systematic
dismissal and destruction. Any form of opposition was considered to pose
a threat to national security.
 Although, most Arab countries were formed as a result of wars of
independence, the new heads of states worked tirelessly to crush
opposition, while vehemently violating human rights and reducing to
mockery the dignity of the Arab citizens. A cruel prison system was
established and those opponents who did not get killed or imprisoned were
forced to seek refuge outside their countries.
 Arab heads of states almost uniformly cast blame for their own failures on
outside powers and factors. They propagated the view that any protests
are a part of a conspiracy directed at their inviolable rule. Their inability to

1 Hisham H Ahmed, The Arab Spring, the West and Political Islam, Solidarity, accessed on 13 January 13 on 
http://www.solidarity‐us.org/node/3492 
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 The plight of the Palestinian people has been uniformly misused and
abused by the Arab rulers: realizing the centrality of the question of
Palestine among the Arab peoples, the rulers rhetorically championed
support of the Palestinians in an attempt to galvanize domestic support,
while in reality back-stabbing the Palestinians at every available
opportunity.
 And, finally, they championed themselves as the bulwarks against the rise
of ‘Islamists’ or ‘radicals’. They adequately demonised the Islamists,
playing on the sensitivities of the Westerners in order to obtain their
unstinted backing and support regardless of the way they treated own
public.
George Friedman in his article on “Re-examining the Arab Spring” argues that
these extremely oppressive regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya survived because of
the massive support they gained from military and other elites that benefited
tremendously from these corrupt regimes2. What he ostensibly misses out is the
support these regimes received from the Western World, the US in particular,
whether in the name of security and regional stability, continued access to
hydrocarbon supplies, containing the expanding influence of the then-soviets or to
thwart the Islamists from claiming power in these countries3.
Although discoveries of oil and natural resources in various countries
improved economic indicators initially, but with rampant corruption, poor governance,
unequal economic opportunities, and growing unemployment, the gap between
‘Haves’ and ‘Have nots’ kept growing. A lecturer at Royal College of Defense
Studies while giving an Overview of the Middle East regarded uneven economic
development as one of the biggest causes leading to the uprising. He remarked that
Gulf countries together have a cumulative GDP of US $ 1.6 trillion yet almost 50% of

2 George Friedman, Re‐examining the Arab Spring, STRATFOR Global Intelligence, 15 August 11. 
3 Kenneth Roth, Time to Abandon the Autocrats and Embrace Rights, Human Rights Watch (2011), accessed on 
16 July 2013 at http://www.hrw.org/world‐report‐2012/time‐abandon‐autocrats‐and‐embrace‐rights  
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the Middle Eastern population lives under US $ 2 per day4. Despite some oil income,
such countries as Egypt (680,000 barrels per day + gas exports), Syria (400,000
barrels per day), Tunisia (92,000 barrels per day + gas exports) and Yemen
(300,000 barrels per day), failed to use oil income as a catalyst for economic
rejuvenation, and their petrodollars went on to cover current expenditure and plug
immediate holes in the fabric of their national economies.
Unemployment level in these countries on the eve of the protests stood at 9.7
per cent in Egypt, 14 per cent in Tunisia and 30 per cent in Libya. Inflation,
particularly the food-price inflation, ran amok; in Egypt families spent 40 per cent of
their income on food. In Yemen 38.59 per cent people lived below the poverty line;
25.2 per cent in Egypt. Tales of corruption related to these regimes were endless. In
Tunisia, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and his wife were called “Ceausescus” by
the Tunisian people after the repressive and corrupt Romanian dictator and his wife5.
The economic dimension was a common denominator in almost all affected
countries. Tunisia and Egypt from where the uprisings started were particularly
affected where the dictatorial regimes and their cronies were leading luxurious lives
on the bases of corruption while the common public suffered due to the sky-rocketing
commodity prices, growing unemployment and unequal opportunities6. Even those
who had jobs were forced to work at two or three places to make the ends meet. In
short, conditions for an imminent social revolution were ripe just waiting for a trigger
to happen that Mohammed Bouazizi of Tunisia provided by self-immolation.
This coincided with the US bid for promoting democracy in the region.
President George W Bush declared in 2003 that the Arab world was due for
democratization. Iraq invasion, in his opinion, was a starting point. However, it was
not for the love of democracy or for the rights of the subjugated population. The
changing geo-economic realities were the main drivers of this change of heart. With
appearance of China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies including Turkey
in the region, it became imperative to open up the Arab world for integrating it into
global economy and checking the influence of other extra regional actors. The fading
dictators had outlived their usefulness for the US and the West. Had it not been for

4 Lecturer at Royal College of Defense Studies, London, Overview of the Middle East, 5 February 2013. 
5 Maria Syed, Prospects of Arab Spring in Pakistan. http://ipripak.org/journal/summer2012/std6.pdf 
6 Tariq Ramadan, Islam and the Arab Awakening (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), p 9. 
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these imperatives, the US and West might have continued to support the dictators in
the name of security and stability of the region and fate of the uprising could have
been totally different7.
Part II
Indigenous Uprisings or Externally Motivated?
A host of factors, both internal and external, contributed to the mass protests
as discussed in the previous chapter. It will be highly unfair to term the mass
movements involving millions of participants as externally motivated, however,
ignoring the outside support would again be a grave fallacy.
Two popular views8 gained currency about the scope and origin of these
revolts, both largely based on conspiracy theories. The one more popular among the
Arab World was that these uprisings were manipulated and even masterminded by
the US and Europe; that nothing could change without their concurrence or support.
The people believed that the West had finally decided to replace the outdated
dictators with a West-dependent transition under military and economic control.
There was no actual freedom to be sought and this was a new form of control under
the guise of democratization. The other opposing view was that these fading regimes
had all along been the allies of the Western World, which would have little interest in
dismantling them. Moreover, the chances of uncertainty with leaderless movements
were too great to provide any incentives to the West. It was believed that these mass
movements were totally spontaneous and too inimical even for the Western powers,
and that this was a beginning of a new dawn for the Arabs.
The reality, perhaps, is to be found in the middle of the two opposing views.
President George W Bush was the first one to have mentioned of democratization of
the Middle East and North Africa as early as 2003. Later in November that year, he
declared that his involvement in Iraq was to open the doors for democracy in the
entire region just like Ronald Reagan’s engagement had for Eastern Europe in
1980s9. The Bloggers and Twitters from Tunisia, Egypt and host of other Arab

7 Ibid, p 8‐9. 
8 Tariq Ramadan, Islam and the Arab Awakening (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012), p 22. 
9 Ibib, p 9. 
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