Sea-Level Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-Level Changes

409 Pages·2014·37.106 MB·English

by  Pugh D., Woodworth P.

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Sea-Level Science
Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis
and Mean Sea-Level Changes
Sealevelschangeformanyreasonsandonmanytimescales,andextremesea
levelscanresultincatastrophiccoastalflooding,suchastheKatrinastorm
surgein2005ortheSumatratsunamiin2004.Asglobalsealevelrises,and
coastalpopulationsincrease,understandingsea-levelprocessesbecomeskey
toplanfuturecoastaldefenceeffectively.
Oceantides,stormsurges,tsunamis,ElNiñoandthesea-levelrisecaused
byclimatechangeareamongtheprocessesexplainedinthisbook.Buildingon
DavidPugh’sclassicgraduate-levelbookTides,SurgesandMeanSea-Level,
thissubstantiallyupdatedandexpandedfull-colourbooknowincorporates
majorrecenttechnologicaladvancesintheareasofsatellitealtimetryand
othergeodetictechniques(particularlyGPS),tsunamiscience,measurement
ofmeansealevelandanalysesofextremesealevels.Theauthors,bothleading
internationalexperts,discusshoweachsurveyingandmeasuringtechnique
complementsothersinprovidinganunderstandingofpresent-daysea-level
changeandmorereliableforecastsoffuturechanges.
Givingthehowandthewhyofsea-levelchangeontimescalesfromhours
tocenturies,thisauthoritativeandexcitingbookisidealforgraduatestudents
andresearchersworkinginoceanography,marineengineering,geodesy,
marinegeology,marinebiologyandclimatology.Itwillalsobeofkeyinterest
tocoastalengineersandgovernmentalpolicy-makers.
DavidPughisamarinescienceconsultant,alsoholdingpositionsas
VisitingProfessorattheUniversityofLiverpoolandVisitingScientistatthe
NationalOceanographyCentre(NOC).Hisresearchspecialisesintides,
surges,meansealevel,coastalmanagementandclimatechange,togetherwith
marineeconomicsandthehistoryofsealevel.Afteracareerinscienceand
sciencemanagementwiththeUKNaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil,
DrPughservedasPresidentoftheIntergovernmentalOceanographic
Commission(IOC)ofUNESCO,2003–7.HehadpreviouslybeenDirectorof
thePermanentServiceforMeanSeaLevelandFoundingChairmanoftheIOC
GlobalSeaLevelnetwork,GLOSS.DrPughhasauthoredtwobooksand
recentlyco-editedTroubledWaters:OceanScienceandGovernance
(CambridgeUniversityPress,2010)publishedforthe50thanniversaryofthe
IOC.HehasbeenawardedanOBEforservicestomarinesciences.
PhilipWoodworthisanIndividualMeritScientistintheNatural
EnvironmentalResearchCouncilbasedattheNOCinLiverpool,andalsoa
VisitingProfessorattheUniversityofLiverpool.HehasbeenDirectorofthe
PSMSLandChairmanofGLOSS.DrWoodworthhaspublishedextensively
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ontides,sea-levelchangesandgeodesy,includingco-editingUnderstanding
Sea-LevelRiseandVariability(WileyBlackwell,2010),andhasbeeninvolved
ineachIPCCresearchassessment.HisawardsincludetheDennyMedalof
IMAREST,theVening-MeineszMedaloftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion,
the50thAnniversaryMedaloftheIOC,andaminuteshareinthe2007
NobelPeacePrizeawardedtotheIPCC.HewasawardedanMBEin2011for
servicestoscience.
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Sea-Level Science
Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis
and Mean Sea Level
David Pugh and Philip Woodworth
UniversityofLiverpool
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UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom
PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork
CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge.
ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107028197
©DavidPughandPhilipWoodworth2014
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
FirsteditionpublishedasTides,SurgesandMeanSea-Level:AHandbook
forEngineersandScientists,1987,byDavidPugh(WileyBlackwell,all
rightsrevertedtoauthor)
Secondeditionpublished2014
PrintedandboundintheUnitedKingdomby
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata
ISBN978-1-107-02819-7Hardback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof
URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication,
anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,
accurateorappropriate.
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Contents
Preface pagevii
Listofacronyms ix
Listofsymbols xi
1 Introduction 1 5.3 Oceantides 105
5.4 Shelftides 111
1.1 Background 1
5.5 Radiationaltides 122
1.2 Earlyideasandobservations 1
5.6 Internaltides 124
1.3 Tidalpatterns 3
5.7 TheyieldingEarth 126
1.4 Meteorologicalandothernon-tidalchanges 7
5.8 Aretideschanging? 129
1.5 Somedefinitionsofcommonterms 8
1.6 Basicstatisticsofsealevelsastimeseries 11 6 Shallow-waterandcoastaltides 133
2 Sea-levelmeasuringsystems 17 6.1 Introduction:someobservations 133
6.2 Hydrodynamicdistortions 133
2.1 Thescienceofmeasurement 17
6.3 Representationbyhigherharmonics 136
2.2 Datumdefinitions 20
6.4 Tidalcurrents 139
2.3 Coastalinstruments 22
6.5 Tidalasymmetry 142
2.4 Open-seagauges 30
6.6 Tidesinrivers 144
2.5 Datareduction 31
6.7 Energybudgets 149
2.6 Datasources 33
7 Stormsurges,meteotsunamisandother
3 Tidalforces 36 meteorologicaleffectsonsealevel 155
3.1 Gravitationalattraction 36 7.1 Introduction 155
3.2 Thetidalforces:afullerdevelopment 40 7.2 Thedepth-averaged(2-D)equations 155
3.3 TheMoon–Earth–Sunsystem 44 7.3 Stormsurges 156
3.4 Tidalpatterns 49 7.4 Statisticsoftidalresiduals 164
3.5 Extremetidalforces 53 7.5 Seiches 165
7.6 Meteotsunamis 170
4 Tidalanalysisandprediction 60
7.7 Waveset-upandsurfbeat 172
4.1 Non-harmonicmethods 61 7.8 Airpressure-relatedchangesofsealevel
4.2 Harmonicanalysis 62 intheworldocean 173
4.3 Responseanalysis 78
8 Tsunamis 189
4.4 Analysisofcurrents 82
4.5 Timezoneconversion 86 8.1 Introduction 189
4.6 Stabilityoftidalparameters 87 8.2 Whytsunamishappen 192
4.7 Tidalpredictions 89 8.3 Tsunamipropagationacross
theocean 199
5 Tidaldynamics 97
8.4 Coastalshoalingandrunup 203
5.1 Therealworld 97 8.5 Tsunamisignalsinsea-levelandbottom
5.2 Long-wavecharacteristics 99 pressuredata 206 v
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Contents
8.6 Sea-levelandrelatedtechnologiesfor 12 Sea-levelapplications 318
tsunamimonitoring 207
12.1 Designparameters 318
8.7 Tsunamifurtherreading 215
12.2 Extremeconditions 319
9 Sea-levelchangesinspace 223
12.3 Coastaldefences 327
9.1 Introduction 223 12.4 Lagoonsandchannels 329
9.2 TheInternationalTerrestrialReference 12.5 Powergeneration 331
Frame 223 12.6 Emersion–submersionprobabilities 335
9.3 TheGlobalPositioningSystem 224 12.7 Floodwarningsystems 337
9.4 DORIS 227 12.8 Economicsofcoastaldefences 341
9.5 SatellitesandMeanSeaSurface 227 13 Sealevelandlife 345
9.6 Satellitesandthegeoid 233
13.1 Introduction 345
9.7 ModelsoftheMSS,geoid
13.2 TheMoonandus 345
andMDT 240
13.3 Intertidallife 346
9.8 Acommentonepochs 243
13.4 Humandevelopment 351
9.9 Towardsaglobalverticaldatum 243
13.5 Thesea-levelpresent 354
10 Meansea-levelchangesintime 252
13.6 Thesea-levelfuture 355
10.1 Introduction 252
10.2 Sea-leveldata 252
10.3 Mesoscalevariabilityinsealevel 254
AppendixA Basichydrostaticandhydrodynamic
10.4 TheseasonalcycleofMSL 256
equations 361
10.5 Poletide 259
A.1 Thehydrostaticequation 361
10.6 Nodaltide 261
A.2 Conservationofmass 361
10.7 Airpressure-relatedsea-level
A.3 Thehorizontalmomentum
variability 262
equations 361
10.8 Large-scalepatternsofinterannual
AppendixB Currents 363
variability 264
B.1 Analysisofcurrents 363
10.9 Long-termchangesinsealevel 268
B.2 Currentdynamics 365
10.10 Understandingsea-levelchange 276
AppendixC Highandlowwatertimesand
10.11 Futureriseinmeanandextremesea
heightsfromharmonic
levels 280
constituents 368
11 Sea-levelchangesintimetodowith AppendixD Theoreticaltidaldynamics 370
thesolidEarth 296 D.1 Longprogressivewave,no
rotation 370
11.1 Introduction 296
D.2 Standingwaves 372
11.2 Techniquesformeasuringverticalland
D.3 Longwavesonarotating
movement 296
Earth 373
11.3 GlacialIsostaticAdjustment 301
D.4 Co-tidalandco-amplitude
11.4 Tectonicsea-levelchanges 303
lines 374
11.5 Man-madecrustalmovements 307 AppendixE Legaldefinitionsinthecoastal
11.6 Geophysicalfingerprintsofsea-level
zone 376
change 308
Glossary 380
11.7 Coastalprocesses 310
Index 389
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Preface
Wespendmuchofourtimestudyingsea-levelscience,a spanning Chapters 7 to 11, we review the major new
wide-ranging and constantly fascinating subject. We developments insea-levelscience:weathereffects, tsu-
analysedata,readandwritepapers,andpresentfindings namis, satellites and geodesy, and global sea-level
atconferenceswheretherearepeopleinthesamesea- changes related to climate change. Our discussion of
levelcommunityasus.However,everysooftenwegetto the latter can be readalongside the recently published
meetotherpeoplewhohavebeenexposedtothissubject FifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanel
in amorepersonalway:someonewholostrelatives in onClimateChange,whichprovidesevenmorefactsand
the1953NorthSeastormsurge,anotherwholostevery- figuresonsealevelandclimate.
thingmorethanonceinBangladeshfloods,acolleague In the third component, containing the final two
whosurvivedthe2004Sumatratsunami. chapters, we discuss more generally how humankind
Weremember ataconferenceofsea-levelexperts has been affected by changes in sea level in the past,
intheMaldivessomeyearsagoasmallboyholdinga andseekstomakepracticalarrangementsforchanges
homemadeposterdeclaring‘Downwithsea-levelrise’, inthefuture.Itisundoubtedlythecasethatchangesin
as he feared for the future of his country. Concern sealevelaffectthewayweliveourlivestoday,andthey
about possible global warming and sea-level rise has willbecomeincreasinglyimportantinthefuture.Sea-
rarelybeenexpressedassimplyoraseffectively.These levelsciencematterstousall.
examples remind us that the results of our work are
important, not just for the scientific papers that are Acknowledgements
produced,but alsofor many practical reasons, which
somehowwefindreassuring. Wearegratefulforthehelpofmanyscientificcolleagues
Thisbookisanintegratedaccountofsealeveland andfriends,whowerekindenoughtocommentonearly
thephysicalreasonswhyitisendlesslychanging:tides, versions of each chapter and provide valuable advice.
weather effects, tsunamis, long-term climate change, Particular thanks go to Trevor Baker, John Hunter,
and even changes in the solid Earth. The chapters AlexanderRabinovichandRichardRay,whoseexpertise
cover many fields: oceanography, geology, geodesy, onoceanandearthtides,sea-levelextremesandtsuna-
climatechange,coastalengineering,datamanagement miswassofreelymadeavailabletous.
andothers. Several of our colleagues at the National
It takes as its starting point David Pugh’s 1987 Oceanography Centre were imposed upon to read
Tides, Surges and Mean Sea Level, which is now long draft chapters or advise on others. Special thanks go
out of print, and significantly out of date. That book toAngelaHibbert,MiguelAngelMoralesMaqueda,Jo
was published at a time of renaissance for sea-level Williams,SimonWilliamsandJudithWolf.
science – a rebirth driven by the technology of satel- We have also appreciated specific guidance and
lites and ever more powerful computers; and by fun- help from Thorkild Aarup, Yasser Abualnaja, Ole
damentalpublicconcernsabouttheeffectsofclimate Andersen, Isabel Goncalves Araújo, Richard Bingley,
changeandpotentialincreasedcoastalflooding.These David Blackman, David Cotton, Roland Gehrels,
concerns have been reinforced byrecentcatastrophic Jonathan Gregory, Ivan Haigh, Lee Harris, Kevin
tsunamiandstormsurgeevents. Horsburgh, John Howarth, Chris Hughes, Paul
This new account has roughly three components. Hughes, Antony Joseph, Mark Lawless, David Long,
Thefirstcomponentconsistsofsixchaptersthatfollow MarkMerrifield,GlennMilne,AndyPlater,RuiPonte,
the1987book’streatmentoftides:instruments,forces, ReinerRummel,MikisTsimplis,JavierValladares,Ian vii
analysis and dynamics. In the second component, Vassie, Ric Williams and Chris Wilson. We are also
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Preface
grateful for help and advice from our colleagues in ones, as we have acknowledged appropriately in the
the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level: Lesley captions.
Rickards, Simon Holgate, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Mark RobertSmithandKateDavishaveadvisedonand
Tamisiea, Andy Matthews, Kathy Gordon and Liz preparedmanyofthefigures.Weacknowledgetheuse
Bradshaw. oftheGenericMappingToolspackageforothers.
Other colleagues provided us with top copies of David Pugh thanks the King Abdullah University
figuresfromtheirworkorhelpedusfindphotographs. of Science and Technology for their hospitality while
Insomecases,thefiguresprovidedwereunpublished sectionsofthisbookwereprepared.
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Acronyms
ACC AntarcticCircumpolarCurrent GCN GLOSSCoreNetwork
ADCP AcousticDopplerCurrent GCOS GlobalClimateObserving
Profiler System
AMO AtlanticMultidecadalOscillation GEOSS GlobalEarthObservationSystem
AMOC AtlanticMeridionalOverturning ofSystems
Circulation GEV GeneralisedExtremeValue
AO ArcticOscillation GFO GeoSatFollow-onSatellite
AOGCM AtmosphereOceanGeneral GGOS GlobalGeodeticObserving
CirculationModel System(oftheInternational
AR4 IPCCFourthAssessmentReport AssociationofGeodesy)
AR5 IPCCFifthAssessmentReport GIA GlacialIsostaticAdjustment
BM BenchMark GLONASS GlobalOrbitingNavigation
BP BeforePresentorBottom SatelliteSystem
Pressure GLOSS GlobalSeaLevelObserving
BPR BottomPressureRecorder System(oftheIntergovernmental
CGPS ContinuousGPS OceanographicCommission)
CM CentreofMass GNSS GlobalNavigationSatellite
DART Deep-oceanAssessmentand System
ReportingofTsunami GOCE GravityFieldandSteady-State
DD DoubleDifferencing(GPSdata OceanCirculationExplorer
processingmethod) Satellite
DORIS DopplerOrbitographyand GOOS GlobalOceanObservingSystem
RadiopositioningIntegratedby GPS GlobalPositioningSystem
Satellite GRACE GravityRecoveryandClimate
DNA Deoxyribonucleicacid ExperimentSatellite
ECDIS ElectronicChartDisplayand GTS GlobalTelecommunications
InformationSystem System
EGPS EpochalorEpisodicGPS HAT HighestAstronomicalTide
EKE EddyKineticEnergy IAG InternationalAssociationof
ENSO ElNiño–SouthernOscillation Geodesy
Envisat EnvironmentalSatelliteofthe IB InverseBarometer
EuropeanSpaceAgency ICESat Ice,CloudandLandElevation
EOF EmpiricalOrthogonalFunction Satellite
EOP EarthOrientationParameter IERS InternationalEarthRotation
ERS-1,-2 EuropeanRemoteSensing Service
satellite-1and-2 IGS InternationalGNSSService
ESA EuropeanSpaceAgency InSAR InterferometricSynthetic
EUMETSAT EuropeanOrganisationforthe ApertureRadar
ExploitationofMeteorological IOC Intergovernmental
Satellites OceanographicCommission ix
FBM FundamentalBenchMark IOD IndianOceanDipole