Scientific American September 2004

95 Pages·2004·2.493 MB·English

by  Scientific American

SEPTEMBER 2004
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SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Volume 291 Number 3
SPECIAL ISSUE:
QUANTUM MECHANICS
BEYOND EINSTEIN 88
Was Einstein Right?
BY GEORGE MUSSER
He thought quantum mechanics was illusory.
INTRODUCTION
44 Perhaps he was on to something.
The Patent Clerk’s Legacy
BY GARY STIX SPECIAL RELATIVITY
How a theoretician changed the world. 92 The Search for Relativity Violations
BY ALAN KOSTELECK´Y
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
50 Infractions of Einstein’s once
Everyday Einstein
sacrosanct principle could be evidence
BY PHILIP YAM
for a theory of everything.
Finding your way with GPS? Hanging a picture
frame with a laser level? Thank Einstein. LOOKING BACK
102
A Century of Einstein
TECHNOLOGY
56 BY DANIEL C. SCHLENOFF
Atomic Spin-offs for
A sampling of this magazine’s reports on
the 21st Century
Einstein over the past 100 years.
BY W. WAYT GIBBS
FROM OUR PAGES
Relativistic microchips and other wonders are
106
Forces of the World, Unite!
still emerging from Einstein’s ideas.
BY GEORGE MUSSER
EXPERIMENTAL WORK In a 1950 Scientific Americanarticle, Einstein
66
Einstein’s Compass
outlined his unified theory of physics.
BY PETER GALISON
ESSAY
What made Einstein study magnetism?
108
Einstein and Newton:
GENERAL RELATIVITY Genius Compared
70
A Cosmic Conundrum
BY ALAN LIGHTMAN
BY LAWRENCE M. KRAUSS AND MICHAEL S. TURNER
How do these
A new incarnation of Einstein’s
two scientific
cosmological constant may point the way
giants measure
beyond general relativity.
up against
each other?
UNIFIED FIELD THEORY
78
The String Theory Landscape
BY RAPHAEL BOUSSO AND JOSEPH POLCHINSKI
The merger of general relativity and
quantum mechanics posits bubble universes
within bubble universes. 70 Galaxy clusters in expanding space
3
www.sciam.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
COPYRIGHT 2004 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Volume 291 Number 3
departments
10 SA Perspectives
Einstein = Man of Conscience2.
12 How to Contact Us
12 On the Web 40 112
14 Letters
18 50, 100 & 150 Years Ago
20 News Scan 40 Insights
■ Ready or not, here come the missile defenses. Deborah S. Jin of JILA created a Fermi condensate—
■ Containing the deadly Nipah virus. opening a new realm in physics that might lead
■ A health link for hot dogs? to room-temperature superconductivity.
■ A new candidate for missing matter. 110 Working Knowledge
■ Artificial retinas more like real ones.
The physics of yo-yos.
■ Calculating a pot from one sherd.
■ By the Numbers: World oil reserves. 112 Voyages
■ Data Points: Space tourism. Hiking underground at Kentucky’s
Mammoth Cave National Park.
118 Reviews
The Winemaker’s Danceargues that more than
a million years of geologic history favors the
About the Cover wines from California’s Napa Valley.
The 1947 Philippe Halsman photograph of Einstein
included in Tom Draper’s cover montage is one of many
testaments to the humanity and activism of the great
scientist. On two separate occasions, Einstein came to
columns
the aid of Halsman, a Latvian Jew now acclaimed as
one of the 20th century’s top portrait photographers.
In the late 1920s, after Halsman was unjustly imprisoned
in an increasingly anti-Semitic Austria, Einstein (and
other notables) wrote
38 Skeptic
BY MICHAEL SHERMER
letters protesting his
Natural-born dualists.
innocence. Again in
1940, as Halsman 121 Anti Gravity BY STEVE MIRSKY
struggled to leave Mistakes, damned mistakes and statistics.
France after the
122 Ask the Experts
arrival of the Nazis,
Why is gas mileage better in the summer?
Einstein contacted
Eleanor Roosevelt on Why does inhaling helium change your voice?
his behalf, thereby
helping the
photographer escape
Cover image by Tom Draper Design; Einstein photograph by Philippe Halsman,
to America. © 1947 Philippe Halsman Estate.
Scientific American (ISSN 0036-8733), published monthly by Scientific American, Inc., 415 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017-1111. Copyright © 2004 by Scientific
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6
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SEPTEMBER 2004
COPYRIGHT 2004 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
SA Perspectives
2
Einstein = Man of Conscience
Sketch a thicket of unruly hair, a soup-straining him sympathetically in part because of his modest but
moustache, a pair of knowing eyes and perhaps a forceful use of his celebrity for good political ends.
thought balloon full of equations—people around the His involvement in politics was motivated less by
world will know who you mean as easily as if you had a craving for power than by a heartfelt desire to set
drawn Mickey Mouse’s ears or Superman’s cape. Not right injustices and to fulfill the responsibilities in-
only is “E = mc2” one of science’s best-known equa- cumbent on him as an unwilling co-author of histo-
tions, but as a catchphrase it is probably as familiar to ry’s most terrifying weapon. Documents suggest that
much of the public as any line from Shakespeare. Every the bloodshed of World War I was what turned him
list of the 20th century’s most from a mute critic of militarism into a protestor.
outstanding figures must include When observations of the total eclipse in 1919 de-
Albert Einstein because that tected gravitational bending of light in keeping with
era—and our own—is unimagin- his theories, Einstein used his newfound internation-
able without him and his influ- al fame to speak out on issues and to advocate for a
ence. Even today, a century after just world government. In 1939 he and physicist Leo
his earth-shaking 1905 papers on Szilard wrote a letter to President Franklin D. Roo-
relativity, quantum theory and sevelt that led to the Manhattan Project and a race
molecular theory, the questions with the Nazis to build an atomic bomb. Yet after Hi-
that preoccupied Einstein remain roshima, Einstein remarked, “If I knew they were go-
at the forefront of science. ing to do this, I would have become a shoemaker!”
It’s only natural that a man Reactions to Einstein’s politicking differed. In
who showed how to bend space 1952 Israel offered him its presidency. FBIdirector
and stretch time should become J. Edgar Hoover believed Einstein was an instigator
EINSTEIN SPEAKS in a titan of science. Yet Einstein and kept him on an enemies list.
Washington, D.C., in 1940. also attained a wider renown Were Einstein alive now, he would undoubtedly
than many of his equally brilliant still find causes for outrage. Though a Zionist, he had
peers in physics—such as Niels Bohr, Max Planck, Paul always insisted that Jews must live peaceably with
Dirac or Erwin Schrödinger. Surely the reason is that Arabs. It is easy to speculate that Einstein, as a staunch
the public had feelings for him beyond admiration. opponent of unilateralist military actions, would have
People loved Einstein. He did not originate the opposed his adoptive nation’s foray into Iraq.
stereotype of the avuncular, eccentric scientific genius, Today, when prominent researchers comment on
but he personified it charmingly. Even during the environmental policies, missile defense, health care
1950s, when fears of radiation fed the public’s unease priorities and similar matters, critics sometimes sug-
about arrogant or heedless ambitions among “mad gest that science and politics should not mix. But Ein-
S
scientists” in the nuclear physics community, Einstein stein knew that scientists have a moral responsibility RBI
O
remained free of that taint. to explain their work, including its political implica- N/C
N
This cultural status did not fall to Einstein through tions. To argue otherwise is to say that science does MA
the mere fact of his intellect. The public responded to not matter. ETT
B
THE [email protected]
10
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SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SEPTEMBER 2004
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Letters
®
[email protected]
Established 1845
EDITOR IN CHIEF:John Rennie RESPONSES TO “Questions about a Hydrogen Economy,” by
EXECUTIVE EDITOR:Mariette DiChristina Matthew L. Wald, in the May issue reminded the editors of a
MNEAWNASG EIDNIGT OERD:ITPOhRil:iRp iMck.i YLa. mRu sting well-known formula for magazine articles: Automobiles +Hy-
SPECIAL PROJECTS EDITOR:Gary Stix drogen Fuel ÷Future Speculation = (Letters ×10). Many writ-
SENIOREDITOR:Michelle Press
ers took the magazine to task for not highlighting an alterna-
SENIOR WRITER:W. Wayt Gibbs
EDITORS:Mark Alpert, Steven Ashley, tive of choice, including biodiesel fuel, nuclear fusion and even
Graham P. Collins, Steve Mirsky,
ocean-wave energy generation. Skeptics of hydrogen argued
George Musser, Christine Soares
CONTRIBUTING EDITORS:Mark Fischetti, that the article was too soft on the concept, whereas others were
Marguerite Holloway, Philip E. Ross,
put off by the critical take. The science policy of the Bush ad-
Michael Shermer, Sarah Simpson, Carol Ezzell Webb
ministration, examined in “Bush-League Lysenkoism” [SA Per-
EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, ONLINE:Kate Wong
ASSOCIATE EDITOR, ONLINE:Sarah Graham spectives], also drew large numbers on both sides of the equa-
tion. Calculate your own responses to the letters that follow.
ART DIRECTOR:Edward Bell
SENIOR ASSOCIATE ART DIRECTOR:Jana Brenning
ASSOCIATE ART DIRECTOR:Mark Clemens
ASSISTANT ART DIRECTOR:Johnny Johnson
PHOTOGRAPHY EDITOR:Emily Harrison EMISSION OMISSIONS There is no doubt that handling leaks of
PRODUCTION EDITOR:Richard Hunt “Questions about a Hydrogen Economy,” hydrogen is more difficult than those of
COPY DIRECTOR:Maria-Christina Keller by Matthew L. Wald, failed to address an natural gas. Yet the cause for worry is not
COPY CHIEF:Molly K. Frances
important advantage of a hydrogen fuel as dire as it seems: thousands of electrical
COPY AND RESEARCH:Daniel C. Schlenoff,
Michael Battaglia system: when automobiles do not pro- generators in power plants all over the
EDITORIAL ADMINISTRATOR:Jacob Lasky duce pollution, as is the case with hydro- world are cooled by hydrogen with few or
SENIOR SECRETARY:Maya Harty gen fuel cells, emissions are confined to no problems.
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER, PRODUCTION:William Sherman fuel-production plants. This centralizing F. Gautschi
MANUFACTURING MANAGER:Janet Cermak of emitters eases monitoring and disposal West Hartford, Conn.
ADVERTISING PRODUCTION MANAGER:Carl Cherebin
PREPRESS AND QUALITY MANAGER:Silvia Di Placido of the waste, as well as making upgrades
PRINT PRODUCTION MANAGER:Georgina Franco with newpollution-reducing technology. Hydrogen may have its disadvantages,
PRODUCTION MANAGER:Christina Hippeli
CUSTOM PUBLISHING MANAGER:Madelyn Keyes-Milch Stuart Hicks but technological advances will make the
Columbus, Ohio gas the key to safer, more efficient global
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER/VICE PRESIDENT, CIRCULATION:
Lorraine Leib Terlecki functioning. By 2050 all energy sources
CIRCULATION DIRECTOR:Katherine Corvino The article states that hydrogen fuel cells will produce hydrogen, which will be ac-
FULFILLMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MANAGER:Rosa Davis
are twice as efficient as internal-combus- cumulated in a worldwide piping system
VICE PRESIDENT AND PUBLISHER:Bruce Brandfon
tion engines, but the actual difference is that is hidden and harmless. The ugly,
WESTERN SALES MANAGER:Debra Silver
SALES DEVELOPMENT MANAGER:David Tirpack much smaller because of the accessory sup- fragile electrical distribution system will
WESTERN SALES DEVELOPMENT MANAGER:Valerie Bantner
port systems a fuel cell requires. General be gone. The by-product oxygen will be
SALES REPRESENTATIVES:Stephen Dudley,
Hunter Millington, Stan Schmidt Motors’s best-published fuel-cell thermal used to treat sewage; purify rivers and
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER, STRATEGIC PLANNING:Laura Salant efficiency is 43 percent, compared with 40 oceans; and incinerate solid waste.
PROMOTION MANAGER:Diane Schube percent for a conventional internal-com- The car of 2050 will probably have a
RESEARCH MANAGER:Aida Dadurian
PROMOTION DESIGN MANAGER:Nancy Mongelli bustion engine using diesel. Given the cost fuel cell to charge batteries in a system sim-
GENERAL MANAGER:Michael Florek and the problems of fuel production and ilar to that of current hybrid automobiles.
BUSINESS MANAGER:Marie Maher
storage, the incentive to pursue the idea of The thermodynamic efficiency of the sys-
MANAGER, ADVERTISING ACCOUNTING
AND COORDINATION:Constance Holmes automotive fuel cells is hard to identify. tem will be in the vicinity of 50 percent,
DIRECTOR, SPECIAL PROJECTS: Barth David Schwartz Robert J. Templin and the vehicle will have a driving range
via e-mail of 500 kilometers. The overall benefits of
MANAGING DIRECTOR, ONLINE: Mina C. Lux
OPERATIONS MANAGER, ONLINE: Vincent Ma hydrogen may currently seem to be lack-
SALES REPRESENTATIVE, ONLINE: Gary Bronson Whereas emissions of carbon monoxide ing, but the future is promising.
WEBDESIGN MANAGER:Ryan Reid
will drop in a hydrogen economy, acci- Laurence Williams
DIRECTOR, ANCILLARY PRODUCTS:Diane McGarvey
PERMISSIONS MANAGER:Linda Hertz dental atmospheric releases of hydro- Alliance, Ohio
MANAGER OF CUSTOM PUBLISHING:Jeremy A. Abbate gen—an even more potent greenhouse
CHAIRMAN EMERITUS:John J. Hanley gas—will rise. The hydrogen economy THE SCIENCE OF POLITICS
CHAIRMAN:John Sargent could be worse for the climate than the Regarding “Bush-League Lysenkoism”
PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER:
Gretchen G. Teichgraeber current, petroleum-based system. [SA Perspectives], the Bush administra-
VICE PRESIDENT AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, William Donelson tion is doing exactly what President Bill
INTERNATIONAL:Dean Sanderson
VICE PRESIDENT:Frances Newburg Wimbledon, London Clinton did during his term—but most of
14
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SEPTEMBER 2004
COPYRIGHT 2004 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
Letters
the permanent government science bu- who may attend the International AIDS service to the current sophistication of the
reaucracy was more politically in tune Society conference in Bangkok, Thai- field. Freud’s historical contribution to
with Clinton’s politics. The fact that Sci- land, in July. psychology was inestimable, but his views
entific American and the Union of Con- Don Bay are now little more than dead weight—
cerned Scientists (UCS) don’t like Bush’s Froson, Sweden what other branch of medicine still clings
policies is no excuse to suddenly discov- so to theories 100 years old? Is it the self-
er that elected officials canaffect research THE EDITORS REPLY: Rethman’s argument consistency of the theory (It makes so
directions, squander tax dollars on self- might be more convincing if the signatories much sense, it must be true!) or the self-
serving scientific sideshows and tailor re- to the petition accompanying the UCS report interest of the practitioners (You mean
search results to fit political agendas. did not include advisers to conservative, Re- everything I know about human psychol-
Michael P. Rethman publican administrations who insist the will- ogy is wrong?) that fuels this desperation
Kaneohe, Hawaii ingness of the current White House to ignore to “prove Freud right” yet again?
and suppress scientific advice is unparalleled. Darien S. Fenn
Your editorial cites accusations from the The Office of Science and Technology Pol- Wilsonville, Ore.
UCS yet neglects to mention that the Of- icy did not release its response to the UCS re-
fice of Science and Technology Policy I applaud Solms’s efforts to link the find-
provided a detailed response to these ings of modern neuroscience with some of
claims. The response brings many other Freud’s intuitive hunches. Freud said a
facts to light surrounding each of the few absurd things, but to ignore all his
claims, making it clear that they do not ideas would be a “phallusy.” The so-called
add up to the kind of systematic manip- Freudian defense mechanisms—such as
ulation your editorial criticizes. You also rationalization, denial, repression and re-
fail to mention that the Treasury De- action formation—are a vital and very real
partment reversed its restrictions on the part of our mental life, although most neu-
editing of scientific papers from embar- roscientists are in denial about this.
goed nations and that the Office of Man- V. S. Ramachandran
agement and Budget recently released its Center for Brain and Cognition
peer-review proposal, which William University of California, San Diego
Colglazier, executive officer of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences and the Na- GET THE BEAT
tional Research Council, called “signifi- Per Enge’s article [“Retooling the Global
cantly improved.” Positioning System”] states that two audi-
Robert Hopkins ble tones in air would produce a beat note.
Special Assistant for Public Affairs This is not true—if it were, music would
Office of Science and Technology Policy STANDING UP for science—or stepping on it? be a cacophony with all the beat notes
Executive Office of the President produced. Beat notes occur only in non-
port until well after our editorial went to press. linear media such as an electronic mixer.
Shortly after your editorial was printed, Hopkins is no doubt aware that many re- Eric Sundberg
the Bush administration took another searchers consider that rebuttal to be inade- President, Southern Electronics
step to muzzle American scientists in the quate (for example, see the UCS rejoinder at Richmond, Va.
service of a political agenda. A new poli- www.ucsusa.org). Similarly, the Treasury De-
cy requires the World Health Organiza- partment and the OMB changed their posi- ENGE REPLIES: Sundberg is correct. The elec-
tion to seek the approval of the U.S. De- tions only after our editorial’s release—and tronic or software mixer in the GPS receiver
partment of Health and Human Services after loud outcry by scientists and the public. creates our GPS beat note.
before soliciting scientists’ opinions. Ac-
o
cording to Representative Henry Wax- FREUDIAN FEEDBACK ERRATUM “Freud Returns,” by Mark Solms, ot
h
man of California, “For the first time, po- In “Freud Returns,” Mark Solms is right to misattributed the statement “It is not a mat- PP
A
litical appointees will routinely be able to note that we are learning much about the ter of proving Freud right or wrong, but of fin- HITE
keep the top experts in their field from re- mechanisms of mind, and Freud’s obser- ishing the job.” These words were penned by W
E
L
sponding to WHO requests for guidance vations can be roughly mapped onto cur- Fred Guterl (not said by Jaak Panksepp of PP
A
on international health issues.” The gov- rent knowledge. But to claim that this cor- Bowling Green State University) in the No- OTT
C
ernmenthas also tightened restrictions on respondence supports Freud does a dis- vember 11, 2002, issue of Newsweek. J. S
16
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SEPTEMBER 2004
COPYRIGHT 2004 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, INC.
50, 100 & 150 Years Ago
FROM SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
Prolific Stars Clever Horse Busy Worms
■ ■
SEPTEMBER 1954 note: Apparently, Hans was only reacting in New York, its smokestack would reach
WHAT IS HEAT?—“Heat is disordered en- to the subtle cues unconsciously broad- half way up the spire—that old-time stan-
ergy. So with two words the nature of cast by onlookers.] dard of lofty measurements, 288 feet in
heat is explained. The rest of this article height [see illustration].”
will be an attempt to explain the expla- OIL PRODUCTION—“The world’s petrole-
nation.—Freeman J. Dyson” um production for 1903 stands at SPEED DEMONS—“The previous record
20,000,000 tons, and of this more than for an automobile running under its own
COSMIC ELEMENTS—“It is tempting to one half is furnished by Russia, the rest power overland from San Francisco to
suggest that all the chemical elements we coming from the United States and Cana- New York was beaten by Messrs. L. L.
know have been synthesized from hy- da, Roumania and Borneo. The demand Whitman and C. S. Carris in a 10-horse-
drogen by thermonuclear processes in- for production greatly exceeds the present power, four-cylinder, air-cooled Franklin
side stars. Why should hydrogen be the production.” runabout, upon which they had made the
primeval element from which all 4,500 miles in 33 days without
the others are built? If that riddle any serious mishaps. That this
is not difficult enough, here is a particular make of air-cooled mo-
harder one: how did hydrogen it- tor car could so successfully break
self come into being? We cannot all records for a long transconti-
beg the question by supposing nental trip over roads, trails,
that it has always existed. Hy- mountains and across trackless
drogen is steadily being convert- wastes of alkali and sage brush,
ed into other elements by pro- was something that came as a sur-
cesses that seem irreversible. In prise to all automobilists.”
spite of this, hydrogen is the most
abundant element in the uni- SEPTEMBER 1854
verse. We must, therefore, sup- THE ACTION OF WORMS—“Be-
pose that it has a finite age, for if neath the city of Berlin, in Prus-
it had existed for an infinite time, sia, there is a deep bog of black
it should all have been used up peat. Professor Ehrenberg, a gen-
by now.—Fred Hoyle” tleman whose explorations into
the mysteries of microscopic life
SEPTEMBER 1904 have attained for him a high po-
THINKING HORSE—“Hardly a sition among the scientific men
day passes but the newspapers of the age, says that this peat, at
have something to say of the the depth of fifty feet, swarms
wonderful mental performances with infusorial life; that count-
of ‘clever Hans,’ ‘der kluge Hans,’ less myriads of microscopic ani-
as Herr Von Osten’s stallion is mals live there and wriggle and
called. An investigation conduct- die. The perpetual motion of
ed by scientists, however, would these little animals causes the
seem to indicate that the horse is whole mass of peaty matter to be
THE NEW OCEAN LINER compared to Trinity Church, 1904
really what his owner claims him in a state of constant though gen-
to be, an intelligent four-footed erally imperceptible movement.
animal, capable of making simple arith- THE NEW CUNARDERS—“Among the nau- In Berlin, the houses are wont to crack
metical calculations. Dr. Heinroth, of the tical exhibits at the St. Louis Exposition, and yawn sometimes, in an exceedingly
Berlin Zoological Garden, has questioned the model that attracts the most attention curious manner, even though built on ap-
the horse in his stall in the absence of its is that of the new 25-knot, 40,000-ton parently stable foundations; and Profes-
owner, and he has received answers as turbine steamers of the Cunard Steamship sor Ehrenberg believes this to be owing
clear-cut and as precise as those given in Company. If the new liner were placed in to the combined efforts of infinite million
the presence of Von Osten.” [Editors’ the churchyard alongside Trinity Church of tiny forms.”
18
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SEPTEMBER 2004
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Test Drive
WILL A PLANNED DEFENSE SHIELD DEFEAT REAL MISSILES? BY DANIEL G. DUPONT
Perhaps as early as this month, President
George W. Bush is expected to declare that a
handful of prototype missiles in California
and Alaska are ready to protect the U.S. from long-
range missile attacks. The Pentagon calls the system
a “test bed,” one that still needs more sophisticat-
ed radar, interceptors and space-based lasers to re-
alize Ronald Reagan’s dream of a “Star Wars” anti-
missile program. The Defense Department, howev-
er, maintains that it can defeat North Korea’s small
arsenal of long-range missiles—a claim that may be
hard to swallow given the limited number of tests
done so far.
The ground-based midcourse defense system, as
it is called, will start off with no more than 10 “hit-
to-kill” interceptors designed to collide directly with
incoming missiles in space. To date, the program
has intercepted target missiles in five of eight heav-
ily scripted tests.
But critics say those trials prove little. The Union
of Concerned Scientists, in a report released earlier
this year, concluded that the initial system “will be
ineffective against a real attack” and also slammed
o
the administration for “irresponsible exaggera- hot
P
tions” about its abilities. In June opponents in Con- AP
E
gress tried unsuccessfully to postpone deployment LIN
C
on grounds that the system should be tested further. N
E
H
During a Senate debate, Senator Barbara Boxer of P
E
California likened the plan to the Wizard of Oz, who E, ST
C
“was scary, but when you pull back the curtain, it OR
NlaUuTnSc-hAeNdD f-rBoOmL TVSa nTRdeIAnLbSe orgf mAiirs Fsoilrec ed eBfaesnes eo,n s Juucnhe a 2s3 t,h hea tvraec bkeineng ofef wth.is Minuteman III was just some little guy,” she said. AIR F
The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency (MDA) U.S.
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news
SCAN has long held that live tests, which are costly, Richard Matlock, named the MDA’s first
difficult to plan, and limited by range and safe- director of modeling and simulation after the
ty concerns, are not the only means of proving science board report was released, says current
the system’s efficacy. According to the Penta- models “do a very good job at predicting the
gon, sophisticated modeling, simulations and performance of system components.” But the
exercises can offset the paucity of real inter- report did confirm the need to enhance those
cepts. In April, Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald models as missile defense evolves, he remarks.
Kadish, then head of the MDA, told Congress: According to the MDA, an aggressive evalua-
DETERRENCE OVER
“We use models and simulations, and not tion program will occur over the next few
PERFORMANCE
flight tests, as the primary verification tools.” years as the test bed is upgraded. “We will con-
But the Center for Defense Information’s stantly improve our capabilities through op-
For the White House, actual
Philip Coyle, the Pentagon’s top tester during erationally realistic testing,” an MDAspokes-
performance may not matter as
much as perception. According to the Clinton administration, argues that such man comments. “We can’t operationally test
Hit to Kill,a 2001 book on missile technology “simply doesn’t capture the basic the system until we put it into place.”
defense by Washington Post physics and the variables in a missile defense That will happen shortly before voters de-
journalist Bradley Graham,
engagement.” His successor under Bush, cide between Bush and presidential candidate
President George W. Bush once
Thomas Christie, told Congress in March that Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who
received a briefing from an Israeli
general on Israel’s Arrow missile such virtual assessment is “not a good substi- says missile defense research is important but
defense system. The general tute for integrated system testing.” And the believes the Bush approach has not been suf-
assured Bush, who was governor Pentagon’s Defense Science Board, a high-lev- ficiently tested. The Pentagon asserts that the
of Texas at the time, that Arrow
el advisory group, concluded in a May report timing of the deployment is a coincidence, but
worked well, but Bush later
that the MDA’s current models and simula- opponents are skeptical. “I believe that’s a big
expressed some doubt: “Of course
their line is it does, because the tions are “legacy” items that are “not well de- part of the push for deployment this year,”
minute somebody thinks it doesn’t, signed to fit together.” As a result, Coyle says, Coyle says.
then the country is much more the military will be “operating blind” once the
vulnerable,” he said, as quoted
program is up and running. The science board Daniel G. Dupont edits InsideDefense.com,
by Graham. “I found that to be an
also stated that the MDAmodels of the sys- an online news service. He wrote about the
interesting concept unto itself.
Deterrence, real or not real, tem’s ability to discriminate between actual threat of high-altitude nuclear explosions
is still deterrence.” targets and decoys are “oversimplified.” in the June issue.
S
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E Nipah’s Return
D
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P
E
THE LETHAL “FLYING FOX” VIRUS MAY SPREAD BETWEEN PEOPLE BY CHARLES CHOI
In February the Nipah virus reemerged, Flying foxes live across the Pacific lands
killing 35 people in Bangladesh in two out- and Africa. Roughly a third of those in
breaks. Although the number of victims is Malaysia and Australia harbor antibodies
small, the deaths have health officials wor- against the infections, suggesting that the bats
ried. Unlike its first appearance in Malaysia and viruses evolved together. The bats, which
in September 1998, the virus in Bangladesh are critical to rain-forest ecology as pollina-
may have jumped from person to person, tors and seed dispersers, apparently do not
raising concern about its ability to spread far- get sick from the viruses, “which makes them
ther and faster. particularly good carriers,” says veterinary
Nipah is a henipavirus, a family named epidemiologist Jon Epstein of the Wildlife
after its two only known members, Hendra Trust’s Consortium for Conservation Medi-
and Nipah (both take their appellations from cine in Palisades, N.Y. Intrusions on and
the places they first struck). Distant relatives fragmentation of the bats’ natural habitat as
of measles, henipaviruses appear to reside the result of logging and other human activ-
naturally in flying foxes, the world’s largest ities help to create the conditions “for a
bats. The virus spreads through bodily fluids spillover disease event from animals to hu-
such as saliva or urine. mans,” he explains.
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