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PLUTO REVEALED I FEEL YOUR PAIN CLOUDS AND CLIMATE Inside the New Horizons mission The new science of empathy Will they make things better or worse? PAGE 40 PAGE 58 PAGE 72 World-changing ideas that are poised to transform society December 2017 VOLUME 317, NUMBER 6 0408 PSYCHOLOGY SPECIAL REPORT 58 I Feel Your Pain 28 TOP 10 A new understanding of empathy might help us harness the emotion— EMERGING just when we need it the most. TECHNOLOGIES By Lydia Denworth 2017 OF CONSERVATION A collaboration between 64 Beetle Resurrection Scientific American a nd Oil companies want the American the World Economic Forum. burying beetle off the endangered species list. Scientists say comeback claims are wildly exaggerated. PLANETARY SCIENCE By Hannah Nordhaus 40 Pluto Revealed nasa’s New Horizons changed CLIMATE everything we thought we knew 72 The Cloud Conundrum about this distant planet. Will changing cloud cover acceler- By S. Alan Stern ate global warming or slow it down? By Kate Marvel GENETICS ON THe cOVer MYTAGE Alamy 48 ECthnoeug Glidna eGleárepinaneggto iScs? a ve 78 AHCRhoCawHnA CgEeaOdpL OttihGveeY  sW orld TFbhoyi rsSu csmipe’ensct Eiifiaxclp rAeemrptoe Nrritec,a tcwno oamnrkpd,i lthehidge h aWlnigdoh rptldsro 1Ed0cu oecmneodem r gic- N-AR Invasive species are a problem. Stolen people were a driving force ing technologies with genuine momentum NNIE GREE Isso gluetnioenti?c Bmya Sntieppuhlaenti oSn. H thaell Biny t Chae tehveorliuntei oMn.  oCfa mmoedroenrn society. Iaamnndda gtehece ob npyoo Mmteaincrt kiba eRl ntooes fisct.rse.ate significant social A December 2017, ScientificAmerican.com 1 © 2017 Scientific American 4 From the Editor 5 Letters 7 Science Agenda Protecting the warming Arctic from economic and military exploitation is imperative. By the Editors 10 Forum The demise of DACA harms everyone’s health. By Sahand Ghodrati 12 Advances Plate tectonics get a new birth date. How smoke from wildfires can spoil wine. Lizards compensate for losing 22 their tail. Damage from solar storms could cost trillions. 25 The Science of Health More worries about the teen brain on marijuana. By Claudia Wallis 26 TechnoFiles How shareable should digital subscriptions be? By David Pogue 86 Recommended Enrico Fermi and the nuclear age. Birders’ quest to count as many species as possible. The Vienna Circle’s influence on science philosophy, post-WWI. B y Andrea Gawrylewski 88 Skeptic Can we agree to outlaw war—again? B y Michael Shermer 25 90 Anti Gravity Burying nuts requires squirrel smarts. By Steve Mirsky 92 50, 100 & 150 Years Ago 94 Graphic Science Looking for alien worlds closest to our own. B y Lee Billings and Nadieh Bremer ON THE WEB Do-It-Yourself CRISPR Scientific American e xamines how a new and easy-to-use D.I.Y. gene-editing tool will change science and society. Go to www.ScientificAmerican.com/dec2017/crispr 88 Scientific American (ISSN 0036-8733), Volume 317, Number 6, December 2017, published monthly by Scientific American, a division of Nature America, Inc., 1 New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, N.Y. 10004-1562. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y., and at additional mailing offices. Canada Post International Publications Mail (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40012504. Canadian BN No. 127387652RT; TVQ1218059275 TQ0001. Publication Mail Agreement #40012504. Return undeliverable mail to Scientific American, P.O. Box 819, Stn Main, Markham, ON L3P 8A2. Individual Subscription rates: 1 year $49.99 (USD), Canada $59.99 (USD), International $69.99 (USD). Institutional Subscription rates: Schools and Public Libraries: 1 year $84 (USD), Canada $89 (USD), International $96 (USD). Businesses and Colleges/Universities: 1 year $399 (USD), Canada $405 (USD), International $411 (USD). Postmaster: Send address changes to Scientific American, Box 3187, Harlan, Iowa 51537. Reprints available: write Reprint Department, Scientific American, 1 New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, N.Y. 10004- 1562; fax: 646-563-7138; [email protected]. Subscription inquiries: U.S. and Canada (800) 333-1199; other (515) 248-7684. Send e-mail to [email protected]. P rinted in U.S.A. Copyright © 2017 by Scientific American, a division of Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved. Scientific American is part of Springer Nature, which owns or has commercial relations with thousands of scientific publications (many of them can be found at www.springernature.com/us). Scientific American maintains a strict policy of editorial independence in reporting developments in science to our readers. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. 2 Scientific American, December 2017 © 2017 Scientific American FROM THE EDITOR Mariette DiChristina is editor in chief of Scientific American. Follow her on Twitter @mdichristina Let’s Science math Bernard S. Meyerson, chief innovation officer of IBM. With the help of knowledgeable council members, we produced ter- That rific lists for two years. After our council term ended, our Forum lead, Rigas Hadzila- cos, asked me if Scientific American might like to continue to help As an editor, I’ve never been a big fan of turning nouns into develop the Top 10 Emerging Technologies list. He proposed that verbs when perfectly good options already exist. But I’d be hap- we could tap the knowledge of members of the Forum’s Expert py to see us use “science” that way. It’s a powerful, evidence- Network and Global Future Councils; we also planned to reach based process of conducting experiments, out to the ever savvy Scientific American gathering data and performing analysis board of advisers and other specialists who on the results. It’s at once a methodical keenly observe developing innovations. set of practices and a tool that inspires Not least, Meyerson also smilingly told me hope for a brighter future by advancing he’d enjoy the chance to work for m e this discovery and innovation. time around. How could I resist an oppor- That’s why our cover story, “Top 10 tunity like that? I’m grateful to all who gen- Emerging Technologies of 2017,” has a spe- erously helped to shape this collaboration cial resonance for me. It’s about world- and to the editorial team members who changing ideas coming out of the labs that have now brought it to you in this edition. are poised to help us lead better, healthier Elsewhere in our pages, you’ll find lots lives. Scientific American produced the of other ways science is making a differ- section in collaboration with the World ence: changing everything we thought we Economic Forum. The Forum annually knew about a “former” planet (“Pluto Re - brings together business and policy leaders—and, increasingly, vealed,” page 40); helping us understand how the tragic history scientists and their research—to discuss ways we can work of stolen people has forged modern society (“How Captives together to tackle the world’s greatest challenges. Turn to page 28. Changed the World,” page 78); illuminating the true population The partnership that led to this special report began three health of American burying beetles (“Beetle Resurrection,” page years ago. I was invited to serve as vice chair of one of the 64); and exploring the implications of possibly using new gene- Forum’s past Global Agenda Councils, focused on identifying editing techniques to preserve ecosystems in the Galápagos emerging technologies. Our chair was the irrepressible poly- (p age 48) . Have a question? Let’s science that. BOARD OF ADVISERS Leslie C. Aiello Kaigham J. Gabriel Christof Koch Martin A. Nowak Terry Sejnowski President, Wenner-Gren Foundation President and Chief Executive Officer, President and CSO, Director, Program for Evolutionary Professor and Laboratory Head for Anthropological Research Charles Stark Draper Laboratory Allen Institute for Brain Science Dynamics, and Professor of Biology and of Computational Neurobiology Roger Bingham Harold “Skip” Garner Lawrence M. Krauss of Mathematics, Harvard University Laboratory, Salk Institute for TChoe- FSocuienndceer Nanedtw Doirrek ctor, Executive Director and Professor, Director, Origins Initiative, Robert E. Palazzo Biological Studies Arthur Caplan Primary Care Research Network Arizona State University Dean, University of Alabama at Michael Shermer Director, Division of Medical Ethics, and Center for Bioinformatics and Morten L. Kringelbach Birmingham College of Arts and Sciences Publisher, Skeptic magazine Department of Population Health, Genetics, Edward Via College Associate Professor and Senior Carolyn Porco Michael Snyder NYU Langone Medical Center of Osteopathic Medicine Research Fellow, The Queen’s College, Professor of Genetics, Stanford VGieCnohtoriegnf e IGn Mt.e C.r nCeerhtf u E rvcahn g elist, Google MDoicfi rhMeacientodl rS, ,U .S Gnaigaveez rCzsaeitnnyti eogrfa Cf o arl itfhoer nSitau, d y StUPernvoiefvenes rsKsoiytryl eo of fA Opxpfloierdd Economics and TSLepeaaamdcee, raS, ncCdiae Dsnsciirene iI cnImtsotari,tg uCintIeCg L SOcPieSn,c e MUCiconh-ivdaeierrels cEitt.yo WSr,c Cehlboeboalne o rEf nMeregdyic Iinnceu bator, DGeirneecttiocrs, ,C Heanrtvear rfdo rM Ceodmicpaul Stacthioonoal l Santa Barbara RoMbaenratg Se.m Leanntg, Ceor rnell University ViDlaiyreacntourr, CS.e Rntaemr faocr hBraanind raannd C ognition, Danedp Aarstsmoceinatt eo fP Mroefecshsaonri,c al Engineering, Rita Colwell David J. Gross David H. Koch Institute Professor, University of California, San Diego University of Texas at Austin Distinguished University Professor, Professor of Physics and Permanent Department of Chemical Lisa Randall Steven Weinberg University of Maryland College Park Member, Kavli Institute for Theoretical and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Physics,University of California, Santa Engineering, M.I.T. Professor of Physics, Director, Theory Research Group, of Public Health Barbara (Nobel Prize in Physics, 2004) Lawrence Lessig Harvard University Department of Physics, RDiRFrceoihcwuhana rEddrned Dr dD ayaan ww d kkBiionnass rF do Cuhnadiartmioann , LeMonf aeAl lpVinpeclsiketrdeo rPdgth aPyasroircdfse ,sH Hsaoaurr vo af rPdh Uysnicivse arnsidty JoIPPhmrrnoom ffPeeu.ss nMssooolrroo, ooHgfry aMe,r W v icaerroidllb LMioalewod gSicyca hal no do l MAoafsr Cttrioonsn mRoemoeloesrg Ry oaynadl Aanstdr oPprohfyessiscosr, Ge(UPNornoorifvbgeeeesrls s MPoitrry i.oz oWef f C iTnhhe iPetxmheayssi ssiaditctre sAys, ua1 9snt7di9n ) Professor of Bioengineering, Danny Hillis College of Cornell University Institute of Astronomy, University Chemical Biology, Harvard University Stanford University Co-chairman, Applied Minds, LLC M. Granger Morgan of Cambridge Anton Zeilinger Edward W. Felten Daniel M. Kammen Hamerschlag University Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs Professor of Quantum Optics, JoTDneiacrehthcntaoonlro, FgCoye lPneotyeli r c fyo, rP Irninfocremtoant iUonn iversity Cofl aEsnse orfg 1y9, 3E5n eDrigsyti nagnud iRsheesdo uPrrcoefse s sor ECnagrnineegeieri nMge allnodn PUunbivlice rPsoitlyic y, DCoirleucmtobri,a T Uhnei Evearrsthit yIn stitute, IQnufoarnmtuamtio Nna, Unonpivheyrssiictys, oQf uVaienntunma Executive Director and Group, and Director, Renewable and Miguel Nicolelis Eugenie C. Scott Jonathan Zittrain William R. and Gretchen B. Kimball Chair, Appropriate Energy Laboratory, Co-director, Center for Chair, Advisory Council, Professor of Law and of Computer California Academy of Sciences University of California, Berkeley Neuroengineering, Duke University National Center for Science Education Science, Harvard University Illustration by Eric Petersen (eyepiece), 4 Scientific American, December 2017 Illustration by Nick Higgins (DiChristina) © 2017 Scientific American LETTERS [email protected] “ Before trying to tion and has developed a campaign to re- duce it by 50 percent by 2030. increase crop yields, Olga Syraya D üsseldorf, Germany we must find ways to Broadfoot’s article largely ignores an im- reduce inefficiencies portant consequence of crop yield increas- in our food produc- es: they can depress market prices for the crops. Unless they provide more income tion and distribution.” despite falling prices, higher yields may do olga syraya d üsseldorf, germany the farmers more harm than good. In addition, although Broadfoot con- cludes with a brief mention of the prob- and when it is not. If one side adopts it, it lems involved in getting food into the is in the interest of the other side to do so hands of the starving, that observation to prevent a nuclear Armageddon, at least conceals an important point: if we stopped given that both sides have second-strike putting our crops into the bellies of cattle capability (as the U.S. and Russia do). and ethanol fermenters and the hands of For a state like North Korea, which dictators, we could probably feed the world August 2017 does not have such capability, retaliation right now without having to increase by the U.S. would almost certainly wipe yields, and doing so would also reduce out its future capability and annihilate its pressure on the environment created by NUCLEAR MATTERS leadership. So even though North Korea high-intensity agriculture. Sometimes hu- In “Nuclear War Should Require a Second may not agree to NFU, it would be foolhar- man problems require human solutions. Opinion” [Science Agenda], the editors ar- dy for it to seriously consider a first strike, Geoff Hart v ia e-mail gue that the president of the U.S. should which translates into its implicit adoption. not be the only person to decide on wheth- Steven J. Brams Professor of politics, MENTAL MONOLOGUE er or not to cause worldwide havoc by or- New York University “Talking to Ourselves,” by Charles Ferny- dering a nuclear launch and that “we need hough, discusses studies on the neural to ensure at least some deliberation.” CROP TALK bases of people talking to themselves in Alone or through informed advice and In “Building a Better Harvest,” Marla their mind. I wonder if any research has widespread consent, threatened by ene- Broadfoot reports on efforts to utilize the been done to determine if such “inner mies or not, an American president (or phytobiome—the web connecting crops speech” is still present in people suffering any other president) should n ever h ave with environmental factors such as micro- from dementia or Alzheimer’s disease—or the power to destroy the world. The U.S. bial communities—to avoid famines. I ap- if it is present but in a different form. My has countless other ways to make adver- preciate that crop science aims to adopt a mother-in-law sat motionless for hours, saries sorely regret threatening it. more holistic approach. But I am some- unable to speak to us, and I always won- Stelios Bakalis T hessaloniki, Greece what perplexed by Broadfoot’s assertion dered if she still could speak to herself. that yields must increase by 70 percent, as Sandra Robbins C arlsbad, Calif. Your editorial’s recommendation introduc- concluded in a 2009 United Nations Food es ambiguity. Would it be desirable for the and Agriculture Organization (FAO) dis- I would like to know if any of the brain president to consult “high-ranking mem- cussion paper, to satisfy population growth pathways found in the research on self- bers of Congress” after a first strike, or the and increasing meat consumption. talk could be similar to dreaming. It seems imminence of one, when these members Before trying to increase crop yields, like dreaming might be an uncontrolled might themselves be divided? And how we must find ways to reduce inefficiencies visual re-creation of the process. many need to affirm? To minimize delay in our food production and distribution. Lanny Schroeder v ia e-mail and the possibility of error, might not it be About a third of edible food is wasted glob- better to require the secretary of defense ally, and the FAO found that 6.7 percent of FERNYHOUGH REPLIES: R egarding Rob - or the national security advisor, or both, to global greenhouse gases comes from food bins’s question: Inner speech is difficult to certify that there is unmistakable evidence waste. Further, a June 2010 report by the study. In the case of individuals with de- that these weapons have been used? United Nations Environment Program mentia, the problem of obtaining reliable What constitutes evidence would be urged a global shift toward a plant-based reports on inner experience is even more clarified by a policy of “no first use” (NFU) diet to fight hunger, poverty and climate acute. It appears likely to me that inner of nuclear weapons. NFU draws a bright change. And adoption of such a diet would speech will continue in people who, for rea- line between when the use of such weap- make people healthier. China has already sons including dementia, don’t use much ons is justified—in particular, to retaliate recognized the environmental and health spoken language. One possibility for inves- against their first use by another country— threat posed by growing meat consump- tigating such speech in dementia would be December 2017, ScientificAmerican.com 5 © 2017 Scientific American LETTERS [email protected] ESTABLISHED 1845 EDITOR IN CHIEF AND SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Mariette DiChristina to develop nonverbal measures, such as DIGITAL CONTENT MANAGER Curtis Brainard COPY DIRECTOR Maria-Christina Keller CREATIVE DIRECTOR Michael Mrak pictorial representations of aspects of in- EDITORIAL CHIEF FEATURES EDITOR Seth Fletcher CHIEF NEWS EDITOR Dean Visser CHIEF OPINION EDITOR Michael D. Lemonick ner speech, that could be used with individ- FEATURES uals who express little external language. SENIOR EDITOR, SUSTAINABILITY Mark Fischetti SENIOR EDITOR, SPACE / PHYSICS Clara Moskowitz SENIOR EDITOR, CHEMISTRY / POLICY / BIOLOGY Josh Fischman SENIOR EDITOR, TECHNOLOGY / MIND Jen Schwartz In answer to Schroeder: Dreaming oc- SENIOR EDITOR, EVOLUTION / ECOLOGY Kate Wong curs mainly (though not exclusively) dur- NEWS SENIOR EDITOR, MIND / BRAIN Gary Stix ASSOCIATE EDITOR, BIOLOGY / MEDICINE Dina Fine Maron ing the rapid eye movement (REM) sleep ASSOCIATE EDITOR, SPACE / PHYSICS Lee Billings ASSOCIATE EDITOR, SUSTAINABILITY Annie Sneed stage, when activity in the brain’s cerebral ASSOCIATE EDITOR, TECHNOLOGY Larry Greenemeier ASSISTANT EDITOR, NEWS Tanya Lewis DIGITAL CONTENT cortex is similar to that observed when MANAGING MULTIMEDIA EDITOR Eliene Augenbraun ENGAGEMENT EDITOR Sunya Bhutta people are awake. Methodologically, tying SENIOR EDITOR, MULTIMEDIA Steve Mirsky COLLECTIONS EDITOR Andrea Gawrylewski particular dreams involving speech to ac- ART ART DIRECTOR Jason Mischka SENIOR GRAPHICS EDITOR Jen Christiansen PHOTOGRAPHY EDITOR Monica Bradley ART DIRECTOR, ONLINE Ryan Reid tivation in language and other pathways ASSISTANT PHOTO EDITOR Liz Tormes ASSISTANT GRAPHICS EDITOR Amanda Montañez would be extremely hard. One way for- COPY AND PRODUCTION ward might be through obtaining detailed SENIOR COPY EDITORS Michael Battaglia, Daniel C. Schlenoff         COPY EDITOR Aaron Shattuck MANAGING PRODUCTION EDITOR Richard Hunt PREPRESS AND QUALITY MANAGER Silvia De Santis self-reports on dreams by adapting exist- DIGITAL ing techniques of experience sampling. But SENIOR EDITORIAL PRODUCT MANAGER Angela Cesaro TECHNICAL LEAD Nicholas Sollecito making such methods work with a sleep- SENIOR WEB PRODUCER Ian Kelly WEB PRODUCTION ASSOCIATE Eli Rosenberg ing participant—perhaps awoken by a CONTRIBUTORS EDITORIAL David Biello, W. Wayt Gibbs, Ferris Jabr, Anna Kuchment, Robin Lloyd, prompt or beep and invited to report on Melinda Wenner Moyer, George Musser, Christie Nicholson, John Rennie, Ricki L. Rusting ART Edward Bell, Bryan Christie, Lawrence R. Gendron, Nick Higgins the dream—would be challenging indeed. EDITORIAL ADMINISTRATOR Ericka Skirpan SENIOR SECRETARY Maya Harty STRATEGIC CHOICE? “A Matter of Choice,” by Peg Tyre, investi- PRESIDENT gates the results of school vouchers and Dean Sanderson finds that they have led to lower scores in EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT Michael Florek EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, GLOBAL ADVERTISING AND SPONSORSHIP Jack Laschever PUBLISHER AND VICE PRESIDENT Jeremy A. Abbate math and reading. I was dismayed that MARKETING AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT the article did not answer the question HEAD, MARKETING AND PRODUCT MANAGEMENT Richard Zinken posed under its title: “So why has the MARKETING DIRECTOR, INSTITUTIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AND CUSTOMER DEVELOPMENT Jessica Cole ONLINE MARKETING PRODUCT MANAGER Zoya Lysak Trump administration embraced them?” INTEGRATED MEDIA SALES The article discusses everything but DIRECTOR, INTEGRATED MEDIA Jay Berfas DIRECTOR, INTEGRATED MEDIA Matt Bondlow DIRECTOR, GLOBAL MEDIA ALLIANCES Ted Macauley the proverbial gorilla in the room, which SENIOR ADMINISTRATOR, EXECUTIVE SERVICES May Jung is that public education is but another seg- CONSUMER MARKETING ment of the public trust that is being di- ASSOCIATE CONSUMER MARKETING DIRECTOR Catherine Bussey SENIOR CONSUMER MARKETING MANAGER Lou Simone rectly and systematically dismantled in MARKETING MANAGER Marie Cummings MARKETING AND CUSTOMER SERVICE COORDINATOR Christine Kaelin the name of private profits. ANCILLARY PRODUCTS Mohammad Babar J efferson City, Mo. ASSOCIATE VICE PRESIDENT, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT Diane McGarvey CUSTOM PUBLISHING EDITOR Lisa Pallatroni RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS MANAGER Felicia Ruocco INIMITABLE ALLUSION CORPORATE In “Technology as Magic” [TechnoFiles], HEAD, COMMUNICATIONS, USA Rachel Scheer COMMUNICATIONS AND PRESS OFFICER Sarah Hausman David Pogue invokes the name “Jeeves” PRINT PRODUCTION in reference to instructing a hypothetical SENIOR PRODUCTION MANAGER Christina Hippeli but ler. Pogue must get these things right: ADVERTISING PRODUCTION CONTROLLER Carl Cherebin PRODUCTION CONTROLLER Madelyn Keyes-Milch the original Jeeves, created by British au- thor P. G. Wodehouse, was not a butler. “If LETTERS TO THE EDITOR the call [came], he [could] buttle with the Scientific American, 1 New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, NY 10004-1562 or [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity. We regret that we cannot answer each one. best of them,” but he was, in fact, a “gen- Join the conversation online—visit Scientific American on Facebook and Twitter. tleman’s personal gentleman”—a valet. HOW TO CONTACT US Charles Griffin v ia e-mail Subscriptions Reprints Permissions For new subscriptions, renewals, gifts, To order bulk reprints of articles For permission to copy or reuse material: ERRATUM payments, and changes of address: (minimum of 1,000 copies): Permissions Department, Scientific U.S. and Canada, 800-333-1199; Reprint Department, American, 1 New York Plaza, Suite 4500, In “The Roots of Science Denial” [October outside North America, 515-248-7684 or Scientific American, New York, NY 10004-1562; [email protected]; 2017], an editors’ note incorrectly states www.ScientificAmerican.com 1 New York Plaza, www.ScientificAmerican.com/permissions. that a draft of the Climate Science Special Submissions Suite 4500, Please allow three to six weeks for processing. 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