Scenario Thinking Vision 2020 - University of St Andrews

125 Pages·2005·1.3 MB·English

by  Alexander Kling

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Copyright © 2005 by akva Scenario Creations
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A
hmed Abd El Ghaffar
K
atrin Alberding
V
asily Nicholsky
A
naken Lai

St. Andrews University Press
United Kingdom (cid:131) St Andrews
Copyright © 2005 by akva Scenario Creations,
A group operating under the supervision of the University of
St. Andrews Management Institute. We encourage readers
to use and share the content of this report, with the
understanding that it is the intellectual property of akva
Scenario Creations, and that full attribution is required.

ISBN 0-X269847-1-0
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Today, the future seems like a puzzle to many because of growing uncertainties and an overflow
of information. The scenario approach is a method used to unwind this labyrinth of information
and indefinable variables, by developing a number of easily understandable concepts of possible
futures. The akva team applied such a method in order to build hypothetical storylines of the
future of higher education in Scotland.

Various insights and new perspectives on old concepts have been the result of our study. Major
findings include an understanding of the dynamic shifts from a static, to a more dynamic
environment, within which political trends develop towards cross-border co-operation and
liberalising democracies. Economic wealth increases and Information technology has never
been so advanced. Along these trends resides the higher educational sector that interacts with
this environment. In response to globalisation, the system opens doors to foreign students. In
response to technological developments, online classes and virtual universities come into place.
In response to a lack of specialized skills, corporations open their own universities. There is a
driver to every outcome. But where do the drivers take us next?

In our study, we identified three main drivers: technology, university funding and international
integration. Traditional forecasters would not hesitate to calculate their future, but we have learnt
better. The future, especially in the long term, is not easily predicted. There is more than one
direction in which the driver can develop, and probability is difficult to attach to variables so far in
advance. Left is the development of many futures – those that embrace the possibilities and
allow for preparation to any scenario. By asking “What if”, we developed three of these
scenarios:
1. A future with much IT at universities, a focus on public funding and little international
integration
2. A scenario where IT is less widely spread, universities are funded through the public and
the private sector, and international integration occurs on the EU level
3. A world where technology is least developed, face to face education remains important
and private educational funding takes over; integration on an international scale occurs
These scenarios form the basis of our understanding that higher education institutes will have to
prepare flexible strategies to account for change, which actually appears to be the only variable
that we can predict with certainty.
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The akva team was founded in September 2005. Headquartered in St. Andrews (Scotland), the
group focuses on scenario research and creation. It consists of four individuals from various
cultural backgrounds that contribute to the expertise of this team. Furthermore, akva Scenario
Creations disposes of an excellent resource base for its studies through the support of one of
the leading Scenario Thinking Centres worldwide: The Gateway Management Department of St.
Andrews.

Ahmed • Ahmed is a 4th year undergraduate student at the University of St. Andrews pursuing a
Abd El degree in International Relations and Management. Prior to joining St. Andrews he
attended the British International School in Cairo where he completed his secondary
Ghaffar
schooling and was awarded the International Baccalaureate Diploma.
Economic
• Ahmed has experience in the banking and financial services sector. He completed an
Analyst
internship at MIBC Group for Marketing Securities where he was a member of a team
Scenario
Narrator representing the seller in the privatization of a major bank. He also interned at HSBC
Bank in the Trade Department, Corporate Banking, and Branch Customer Service.
• Amongst other activities Ahmed enjoys horseback riding and squash. He is also a
member of the Global Investment Group and was the elected Junior Honours Class
Representative in 2004 in the International Relations Department Staff Student
Consultative Committee. Ahmed has excellent command of both written and spoken
English and Arabic.

Katrin A. • Katrin is from Germany and currently a student of Management and International
Alberding Relations at the University of St. Andrews.
• Previous to her studies in the UK, she was educated in the USA and Germany; she
Political Analyst
graduated with a High School Diploma and an International Baccalaureate Degree
Methodology
Expert • Katrin gained relevant experiences in analysis and research throughout her internships

Design & Layout in the Economics Department of the German Embassy in Washington DC (USA), in the
Marketing Department of DaimlerChrysler in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) and in
Investment Banking (Mergers & Acquisitions) with Citigroup in London (UK)
• In her extra-curricular time Katrin has taken over various leadership positions, including
President of the University’s Model United Nations Society and President of the Water
Polo Club, where she also played in the first team for several years
• Other relevant skills include fluency in German and English as well as comfortable
working knowledge with MS Office, Adobe Photoshop, Lotus Notes, Datastream, SDC,
Bloomberg and Factiva

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Vasily V. • Vasily is from Russia and currently a student in Management and Philosophy at the
Nicholsky University of St. Andrews
• Previous to his studies in the university, he was educated in England, where he had
Social &
Environmental graduated from one of the top mixed schools in Britain. He also holds a Russian High
Analyst
School Diploma for which he had studied part time

Scenario
• Vasily gained relevant experiences throughout various internships in retail, marketing,
Narrator
management, investment banking and private equity
• Other relevant skills include fluency in Russian and English as well as comfortable
working knowledge with MS Office, Apple Works, Bloomberg and Reuters

Anaken • Anaken is an international student from Hong Kong and currently reading (M.A. Hons)
Lai Single Management at University of St Andrews
• Before furthering his studies in the U.K, Anaken was educated in Hong Kong and he
Technological &
Legal Analyst finished the Hong Kong A-level in 2002. Also, he achieved the “Investment

Scenario Administrative Qualification” award by Securities and Investment Institution (United
Literature Expert
Kingdom) in August, 2005

• Anaken gained working experience in various field range from financial investment
(HSBC, HK), research assistant (Lingnan University of Hong Kong) and management
consultant (Legal Engineering Group, Hong Kong)
• Other relevant skills include fluent in Cantonese, Mandarin and English and intermediate
level on both Japanese and Russian. Also, he gains comprehensive skills on MS Office,
Adobe Photoshop, Java, Java-script, C programming, Macro-media Flash and
Dreamweaver.

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Prof. McKiernan & Dr. MacKay
We would like to thank Professor McKiernan and Dr. MacKay, alongside with the Management
Department, for their support and guidance on this project. Their expertise and willingness to
share their knowledge with us has been a true help to us and proved vital in keeping our
thoughts directed at the matter.

St. Andrews University Postgraduates
The two Postgraduates Ryan Parks and Gary Bowman deserve mention at this point for their
constant availability and great advise they gave throughout this course.

Our Fellow Group
We would also like to mention our fellow group of students participating in this class with us.
Although their project differed from our own, their opinion and knowledge on many matters has
been highly valuable to us. Not at least, it was enjoyable to experience the work between two
groups in collaboration, rather than competition.

The Publishing House
Furthermore, much appreciation goes to the publishing House (The St. Andrews University
Press), locally also known as “Reprographics”. Thank you for your excellent work!

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Executive Summary i
Meet the Team ii
Acknowledgements iv
Table of Contents v

Introduction 1

Chapter 1: Methodologies for Building Futures
Chapter Summary 3
Introduction 4
Outlining Key Methods:
• Forecasting 5
• The Delphi Method 9
• Scenario Thinking 14
- Morphological Analysis 16
- Intuitive Logics 20
- The French School 24
- The St. Andrews Approach 27
Analysis and Discussion: A Comparison of Methods 30

Chapter 2: Literature Review
Chapter Summary 36
Analysis of Scenario Literature
• Definition of Scenarios 37
• Scenario Building as a Strategic Planning Tool 39
• Potential Fields of Interest for Future Research 45

Chapter 3: The akva Approach
Chapter Summary 47
Our Approach: The St. Andrews Method 48
• Scoping and Diagnosis 49
• Data Collection 50
v
• Environmental Analysis: Drivers & Trends 55
• Ranking of Key Drivers 60
• Projection of Key Drivers 62
• Building the Scenario 64
• Selecting Signposts and Indicators 65
• From Scenarios to Strategies 66

Chapter 4: Scenarios for Vision 2020
Chapter Summary 67
• City of the Sun 68
• Megauniversities 70
• Elitist Society 72

Chapter 5: Analysis and Evaluation of Scenarios
Chapter Summary 75
Analysis
• Internal Analysis 76
• External Analysis (Gestalt) 90

Chapter 6: From Scenarios to Strategy
Porter’s Methods 92
Strategic Recommendations
• City of the Sun 94
• Megauniversities 96
• Elitist Society 99

Conclusion 102

Bibliography 104

Appendix 110
Workbook
Research Papers

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Scenario Thinking
Introduction

IInnttrroodduuccttiioonn

This Report is a result of the course work conducted as part of the Scenario Thinking Course
MN4225. The project task of “Vision 2020” was to develop scenarios for the future of higher
education, with special reference to the University of St. Andrews. The objectives of this study
were to:

• Create a minimum of two and a maximum of four scenarios on higher education in St.
Andrews in 2020
• Provide information to understand the macro-dynamics within which higher education
institutions operate today and possibly in the future
• Establish new insights and assist the client in identifying new opportunities
• Advise the client on moving from established scenarios to the most suitable strategy
• Gain a deeper understanding of the underlying scenario methodology by applying it

Report Outline
In order to achieve these objectives we have opted for a rather uncommon order of this report.
Instead of starting with our own approach straight away, we decided to begin with a very general
overview on methodology and a literature review on scenario thinking, in order to generate an
understanding of the methodologies available and the basics of the scenario approach. After
having defined and justified the basic methodological assumptions we chose to work with, we
ventured into the details of our own approach in the second part of the report.

Chapter 1: Methodologies for Building Futures
In this chapter we give a general overview of the main methods that exist for future building. We
outline their origin, their respective advantages and shortcomings. Finally, we compare the
various methods with each other and explain why we a) opted for the Scenario approach and b)
chose to follow the St. Andrews approach to scenario building.

Chapter 2: Literature Review
This chapter gives an overview of the main scenario literature available. It outlines the major
issues addressed in the appraised literature and provides ideas for further literature expansions.

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Copyright © 2005 by akva Scenario Creations