Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment: Selected and edited Proceedings of the Symposium Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 12–15 September 1994 PDF
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Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment Selected and edited Proceedings of the Symposium Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 12-15 September 1994 Edited by Job F.Th. Schoute Peter A. Finke Frank R. Veeneklaas Henk P. Wolfert DLO Winand Staring Centre for lntegrated Land, Soi! and Water Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands • se-dia SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Symposlum "Scenarlo Studles for the Rural Envlronment" (1994 Wagen,ngen. Netherlands> Scenario studies for the rural env,ronment selected and edlted proceedlngs of the Symposlum "Scenarl0 Studies for the Rural Environment." Wageningen. the Netherlands. 12-15 September 1994 ! ed'ted by Job F.Th. Schoute ... [et al. J. p. cm. -- (Envlronment & policy ; v. 5) Includes ,ndex. ISBN 978-94-010-4197-3 ISBN 978-94-011-0441-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-0441-8 1. Land use. Rural--Europe--Plannlng--Congresses. 1. Schoute. Job F. Th. II. Title. III. Ser,es. HD583.S96 1994 333.76' 13'094--dc20 95-38231 ISBN 978-94-010-4197-3 Cover: Watercolour © Lars Emmelin and Michael Jones Printed on acid-free paper AII Rights Reserved © 1995 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1995 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover Ist edition 1995 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, inc1uding photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. v PREFACE In 1989anew research institute wasestablishedby amergerof(partsof)four institutes ofthe Netherlands Ministry ofAgriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries covering the fields of: land inventory and land evaluation; soil and groundwater protection; quantitative and qualitative water management; toxic substances in the environment; landscape management and landscape development; land use planning and outdoor recreation. An explicitpurpose was to promote integration ofsectors (functions ofrural areas, e.g. agriculture, nature, outdoorrecreation); policyfields (e.g. environmentalpolicies, economic policy);andbranchesofscienceofdifferentbutinterlinkedresearchactivitieswithrespect toruralareas. Thus, theDLO WinandStaringCentrefor IntegratedLand, SoilandWater Research was created. Its first lustrum in 1994 offered agoodoccasionbothto evaluate whatwasaccomplishedandto lookaheadtotheresearchtaskstocome. An international scientific symposium was one ofthe means to this end. Thesymposium was held in Wageningen, theNetherlandson 12-15 September 1994 under the title Scenario Studiesfor the Rural Environment. Around 340 participants from 27 countries participated in the gathering. Thank to a generous gesture for support for the Commission ofthe European Communities, Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development (DG XII), anumber ofparticipants from Eastern European countries couldattendthesymposium.Althoughendangeredenvironmentalqualityandaccelerating land-usedynamicsareworldwidephenomena,thefocusofthesymposiumwasonEurope. The central objective was to further our understanding of the needs, aims and methodologies of future-oriented and decision-supporting research for the rural environment, and in particularthe role scenario studies could play. Rural areas need to fulfil a large variety offunctions and to accommodate many activities. Therefore, the scope ofthe symposium and by consequence ofthese proceedings needs to be rather broad. It covers the following themes: nature, variety and scope ofscenario studies; regional soil and water management; nature development and landscape quality; rural planning and the future ofregions. These themes are reflected in the four parts ofthis book. The contributions to this symposium - papers by invited speakers and a selection of submittedposters-havebeenreviewedbythe Editorial ScientificCommittee composed ofWinand StaringCentrestaff, in some casesassisted by colleagues. Thefinal decision whether or not to follow the suggestions by this Committee was, however, left to the authors. They are acknowledged for their ready and apt replies. VI Gratitudeisexpressedtosession chairpersonsandinviteddiscussantsfortheirrolein the success of the symposium and for providing the editors with basic material for the introduction to this book: Prof. Dr K. Verhoeff (former Director of Science and TechnologyDepartmentoftheNetherlandsMinistryofAgriculture,NatureManagement and Fisheries), Prof. Dr L.O. Fresco, Prof. Dr. 1. Bouma, Prof. Dr R.A. Feddes, Prof. Dr. R. Rabbinge and Prof. Dr. H.N. van Lier (all from the Wageningen Agricultural University), Prof. DrI.S. Zonneveld(Emeritus ProfessorattheInternational Institutefor Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences, lTC, Enschede, Netherlands) and Prof. Dr H.A. Udo de Haes (Centre for Environmental Studies, Leiden, Netherlands). Iwouldliketoexpressourthanksalsotoallsponsorsofthesymposium: theCommission ofthe European Communities, Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development (DG XII), Brussels; the Netherlands Minstry ofAgriculture, Nature Management and Fisheries, The Hague; Digital Equipment b.v., Utrecht; Grontmij n.v., DeBilt; Grafisch Service Centrum Van Gils b.v., Wageningen; CCE Land Use Management, Eindhoven; QRay Agrimathica, Veenendaal; Winnemuller, Wageningen; Separations b.v., Hendrik IdoAmbacht;HagoNederlandb.v.,Heerlen;BedrijfslaboratoriumvoorGrond-enGewas onderzoek, Oosterbeek; Kniphorst International Booksellers, Wageningen; B.V. Auto mobielbedrijfAckermann, Wageningen;AllroundUitzendburo, Wageningen;DHVAlB b.v., Amersfoort;GTRb.v.,Geldermalsen;HoekLoos, Dieren;InternationalAgricultural Centre(lAC),Wageningen;KoendersInstrumentsb.v.,Hilversum;LEICAb.v., Rijswijk; Logisterion Automatisering, Rotterdam; Van der Most, Heerde; ObservatorInstruments b.v., Ridderkerk; Permar, Ede; Photogravure De Schutter, Antwerpen; Profcolor Fotovaklab, Veenendaal; RapidocolorNederland b.v., Eindhoven; Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen. A special word ofgraditude goes to the Commission ofthe European Communities, Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development (DG XII) for their support for the publication ofthis proceedings. I am confident that these proceedings offer interesting reading, also for those who did not attend this fascinating symposium. Future-orientedresearch in general and scenario studies in particular are fun to do, but it should be done properly, not least due to the interest ofour common future rural environment. Wageningen, July 1995 G.A. Oosterbaan Director DLO Winand Staring Centre for Integrated Land, Soil and Water Research vii Selected and edited proceedings ofthe International Symposium organized bythe DLO Winand StaringCentrefor Integrated Land, Soil and WaterResearch, Wageningen, The Netherlands,co-sponsoredbytheCommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities,Directorate General for Science, Research and Development, DG-XII, Brussels. Organizing Committee J.F.Th. Schoute L.M. van den Berg J.MJ. Farjon P.A. Finke J.H.A.M. Steenvoorden F.R. Veeneklaas H.P. Wolfert J.W.H. van der Kolk (excursions) L.C. van Liere (editoral assistance) A Scenario Builder's Inquisition (a muse from a Symposium) So, you are a scenario - builder are these buildings sand castles, castles in the air, prisons, pubs or parliaments? No, I tell stories ofthe future. So: are they lies, science fiction or fantasy? Are they tragedy, comedy, thriller or farce? Are they literature or pulp? No: I paint pictures ofreality. So: are they abstract or impressionist, in or out perspective? Are they in colour or black and white? Are they master-pieces, cartoons, caricatures or junk? No, I make models ofthe world. So, to what scale and ofwhat parts? Are they toys, exhibits, plans or prototypes? Are they fashion models or pornographic? Perhaps they make you blind. D.R. Harvey Wageningen, 13-09-1994 CONTENTS: 'Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment' General Introduction PART I ON THE NATURE, VARIETY AND SCOPE OF SCENARIO STUDIES 5 Introduction to Part I 7 Chapter 1: Scenarios as a tool 9 1.1 F.R. Veeneklaas and L.M. van den Berg Scenario building: art, craft or just a fashionable whim? 11 1.2 I.J. Schoonenboom Overview and state ofthe art ofscenario studies for the rural environment 15 1.3 A.F. van de Klundert The future's future. Inherent tensions between research, policy and the citizen in the use offuture oriented studies 25 Chapter 2: Tools for scenario building 33 2.1 P.E.V. van Walsum, 1. Vreke and FJ.E. van der Bolt Optimization ofregional water management (quantity and quality) through scenario analysis 35 2.2 D. Harvey and B. White Regional economics approach: Quantitative models in integrated scenario studies 55 2.3 J.D. van der Ploeg The tragedy ofspatial planning 75 2.4 Ashok Bhalotra From scenario to plan. The role oflandscape design in integrated scenario studies 91 Chapter 3: Scenarios and rural policy 99 3.1 G. van der Lely Rural areas in perspective. A policy view. 101 3.2 M. Scheele Changing factors in land use in the rural environment. Information gaps and implications for scenario studies 107 3.3 G. Meester Possible economic scenarios in the CAP and their impact on land use in Europe 117 x PART II REGIONAL SOIL AND WATER MANAGEMENT 125 Introduction to Part II 127 Chapter 4: Modelling concepts 129 4.1 E. Priesack and F. Beese Changing modelling concepts and their relation to scenario studies 131 Chapter 5: Models and scale aspect 141 5.1 P.E. O'Connell Capabilities and limitations ofregional hydrological models 143 5.2 M.E. Styczen Regional simulations as a basis for the assessment ofnational nutrient emissions at various input scenarios in Denmark 157 5.3 W. de Vries, l Kros, lE. Groenenberg, GJ. Reinds, C. van der Salm and M. Posch Scenario studies on soil acidification at different spatial scales 169 5.4 l Deelstra and H.O. Eggestad Runoff, nitrogen loss and scale aspects on agricultural land in Southern Norway 189 5.5 T. Okruszko, T. Brandyk, A. Byczkowski and J. Kubrak The soil and water management in the middle basin ofthe Biebrza River, Poland 195 Chapter 6: Operational decision support tools 201 6.1 S.T. Abdel Gawad, M.A. Abdel Khalek, M.F.R. Smit and M.S. Abdel Dayem The use ofthe SIWARE model package in water management scenario studies, Egypt 203 6.2 R. Adams The integration ofa physically based hydrological model within a decision support system to model the hydrological impacts ofland use change 209 6.3 E. Kaca and L. Labedzki A water management system for rural areas 215 6.4 F. Wendland and M. Bach GIS-supported model for the assessment ofthe supra-regional nitrate pollution ofgroundwater in Germany 221 6.5 K.C. Kersebaum, W. Mirschel and K.-O. Wenkel Estimation ofregional nitrogen leaching in the Northern-East German area for different land use scenarios 227 6.6 M.Q. van der Veen and P. van der Voet The Gelderland ammonia information system for policy analysis 233 XI Chapter 7: Models and GIS 237 7.1 H.P. Nachtnebel and J. Fuerst Integration ofa data base, hydrological models and a geographic information system to assist in regional water management 239 7.2 H. Paaby, J.J. Jensen, P. Kristensen, F. M011er and E. Skop Reducing nutrient loadings to marine waters. Building up an integrated assessment model 255 Chapter 8: Model parametrization and data needs 261 8.1 P.A. Finke, J. Bouma, M.C.S. Wopereis and JJ.M. Wosten Spatial and temporal variability and the data crisis in scenario studies 263 8.2 AJ. Dolman, P. Kabat, J.A. Elbers, W.G.M. Bastiaanssen and MJ. Ogink-Hendriks Regionalization and parameterization ofhydrological processes at the land surface 281 8.3 J. Kros, EJ. Groenenberg, W. de Vries and C. van der Salm Uncertainty in long-term predictions offorest soil acidification due to neglecting seasonal variability 287 8.4 M. van Meirvenne, J. Denaeghel, K. Rajkai, M. Kertesz and G. Hofman Spatial extension ofa point water balance model 293 8.5 M. van der Perk and M.F.P. Bierkens Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality model ofthe Biebrza River, Poland 299 8.6 G. Blom and MJ. van der Vlist Information requirements and availability for regional environmental planning in the Netherlands illustrated by the problem of eutrophication 305 8.7 T.R.E. Thompson, E. Peccol and R.I. Bradley The future role ofsoil information in planning the rural environment 309 Chapter 9: Case studies on water and nutrient management 315 9.1 Land degradation 317 9.1.1 1. Stolte, CJ. Ritsema, K. Oostindie and P. van Dijk Measuring and modelling hillslope hydrology in the Loess region of the Netherlands 317 9.1.2 AJ. Hernandez, 1. Pastor, C. Jimenez, E. Prieto and A. Sanchez Spatial and temporal variability ofenvironmental factors and nature management in a rural arkosic landscape 323 9.2 Nutrient management 329 9.2.1 J.P. Dijkstra and MJ.D. Hack - ten Broeke Simulation ofdifferent management options within integrated arable farming affecting nitrate leaching 329
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