Scarce Natural Resources, Recycling, Innovation and Growth PDF
Preview Scarce Natural Resources, Recycling, Innovation and Growth
BestMasters Springer awards „BestMasters“ to the best master’s theses which have been com- pleted at renowned universities in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. Th e studies received highest marks and were recommended for publication by supervisors. Th ey address current issues from various fi elds of research in natural sciences, psychology, technology, and economics. Th e series addresses practitioners as well as scientists and, in particular, off ers guid- ance for early stage researchers. Markus Merz Scarce Natural Resources, Recycling, Innovation and Growth Markus Merz Tübingen, Germany BestMasters ISBN 978-3-658-12054-2 ISBN 978-3-658-12055-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-12055-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015955646 Springer Gabler © Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2016 This work is subject to copyright. 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Printed on acid-free paper Springer Gabler is a brand of Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Contents ListofFigures VII ListofSymbols IX 1 Introduction 1 2 AnIntroductiontoEconomicGrowthTheoryandtheOilMarket 3 3 TheDasgupta-HealModel 11 3.1 AClosed-FormSolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 3.2 CriticalAssessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 4 RecyclingasaSourceofRegeneration 25 4.1 TheEconomicSystemandtheEnvironment . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 4.2 RecyclingUnderaMaterialBalanceConstraint . . . . . . . . . . 29 4.3 IncompleteRecycling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 5 TechnologicalProgress 37 5.1 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 5.2 UncertainTechnologicalProgress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 5.3 TheKamien-SchwartzModel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 6 DiscussionandConclusions 67 VI Contents Appendix:ASketchofSolutions A TheDasgupta-HealModel 71 A.1 StarvationofMankind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 A.2 PhaseDiagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 B AClosed-formSolutionoftheDasgupta-HealModel 79 C RecyclingUnderaMaterialBalanceConstraint 83 C.1 Long-runEquilibriumoftheEconomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 D ExogenousTechnologicalProgress 89 D.1 PhaseDiagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 E UncertainTechnologicalProgress 97 E.1 ACertaintyEquivalentSolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 F TheKamien-SchwartzModel 103 F.1 PhaseDiagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 F.2 ConditionalProbabilityofCompletion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 References 113 ListofFigures 2.1 RealPriceofOil,1861-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.2 GrowthForecastfromtheLimitstoGrowth . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3 GlobalUsageofOil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2.4 NetDifferenceBetweenAnnualReservesAdditionsandAnnual Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.1 CIESUtilityFunctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.2 ConsumptionPath. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.3 Dasgupta-Heal:PhaseDiagraminC/K-F/K Space . . . . . . . . 19 3.4 BehaviorofCapital,Output,andConsumption . . . . . . . . . . 21 4.1 TheEconomicSystemandtheEnvironment . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 5.1 ExogenousTechnologicalProgress:PhaseDiagraminC/K-F/K Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 5.2 Exogenous Technological Progress: Phase Diagram inC/K−V Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 5.3 ConsumptionPathOverTimeinCaseofaBackstop-Technology . 51 5.4 BehaviorofC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 5.5 Behaviorofm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 5.6 TimePatternforF ≤rhoatt =0andt >0 . . . . . . . . . . 62 K m m 5.7 OptimalPathfortheCaseofF ≤rhoatt >0 . . . . . . . . . . . 63 K m VIII ListofFigures 5.8 Temporal Pattern for F > ρ at t , When Consumption Peaks K m BeforeR&DEffort . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 5.9 TemporalPatternforF >ρ att ,WhenR&DEffortPeaksBefore K m Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 ListofSymbols A Technologicalprogressparameter C Consumption c Consumptioninefficiencyunits c˜ Consumptioninefficiencyunitsadjustedbytheresourceinput D Stockofwaste F(·) Productiontechnology F Marginalproductofcapital K F Marginalproductoftheexhaustibleresource R g Growthrate H Hamiltonianoperator h(z) Conditionalprobabilityofcompletion I Investment J Flowofsecondarymaterialinput(recyclableresource) K Capital k Capitalinefficiencyunits k˜ Capitalinefficiencyunitsadjustedbyresourceinput L Labor MRS Marginalrateofsubstitution m EffortinR&D N Constantextractionofthedurablecommodity P(·) Alternativeproductiontechnology Q Inventoryofthedurablecommodity
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