Sandia National Laboratories Performance Assessment Methodology for Long-Term

242 Pages·2011·23.76 MB·English

SANDIA REPORT
SAND2011-8270
Unlimited Release
Printed November 2011

Sandia National Laboratories Performance
Assessment Methodology for Long-Term
Environmental Programs:
The History of Nuclear Waste Management

Paul G. Meacham, D. Richard Anderson, Evaristo J. Bonano, and Melvin G. Marietta

Prepared by
Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185 and Livermore, California 94550

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SAND2011-8270
Unlimited Release
Printed November 2011

Sandia National Laboratories Performance
Assessment Methodology for Long-Term
Environmental Programs:
The History of Nuclear Waste Management

Paul G. Meacham,
Raytheon Ktech
1300 Eubank Blvd. SE
Albuquerque, NM 87123
D. Richard Anderson, Evaristo J. Bonano, and Melvin G. Marietta
Sandia National Laboratories
P.O. Box 5800
Albuquerque, NM 87185-0778
contact: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is the world leader in the development of the detailed
science underpinning the application of a probabilistic risk assessment methodology, referred to
in this report as performance assessment (PA), for (1) understanding and forecasting the long-
term behavior of a radioactive waste disposal system, (2) estimating the ability of the disposal
system and its various components to isolate the waste, (3) developing regulations,
(4) implementing programs to estimate the safety that the system can afford to individuals and to
the environment, and (5) demonstrating compliance with the attendant regulatory requirements.
This report documents the evolution of the SNL PA methodology from inception in the mid-
1970s, summarizing major SNL PA applications including: the Subseabed Disposal Project PAs
for high-level radioactive waste; the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant PAs for disposal of defense
transuranic waste; the Yucca Mountain Project total system PAs for deep geologic disposal of
spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste; PAs for the Greater Confinement Borehole
Disposal boreholes at the Nevada National Security Site; and PA evaluations for disposal of
high-level wastes and Department of Energy spent nuclear fuels stored at Idaho National
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Laboratory. In addition, the report summarizes smaller PA programs for long-term cover systems
implemented for the Monticello, Utah, mill-tailings repository; a PA for the SNL Mixed Waste
Landfill in support of environmental restoration; PA support for radioactive waste management
efforts in Egypt, Iraq, and Taiwan; and, most recently, PAs for analysis of alternative high-level
radioactive waste disposal strategies including repositories deep borehole disposal and geologic
repositories in shale and granite. Finally, this report summarizes the extension of the PA
methodology for radioactive waste disposal toward development of an enhanced PA system for
carbon sequestration and storage systems.
These efforts have produced a generic PA methodology for the evaluation of waste management
systems that has gained wide acceptance within the international community. This report
documents how this methodology has been used as an effective management tool to evaluate
different disposal designs and sites; inform development of regulatory requirements; identify,
prioritize, and guide research aimed at reducing uncertainties for objective estimations of risk;
and support safety assessments.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are grateful to Lori Dotson and Mary-Alena Martell, who were instrumental in the
initial assembly of reference resources, and to Geoff Freeze and Paul Mariner for their review of
this report. Their contributions have been substantial, but in the end any weakness in
interpretation, in the inclusion or omission of details and relations in the long and broad history
of performance assessment and radioactive waste management or in the report’s conclusions, are
the sole responsibility of the authors.

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Sandia National Laboratories Development of the Performance Assessment Methodology
for Long-Term Environmental Programs: The History of Nuclear Waste Management

Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................1
1.1 Overview ..........................................................................................................................1
1.1.1 Beginnings of Waste Disposal Performance Assessment at Sandia
National Laboratories, 1973–1975.....................................................................2
1.1.2 Historical Outline of SNL Performance Assessment Analyses for
Radioactive Waste Management ........................................................................4
1.2 PA Methodology ..............................................................................................................6
1.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................6
1.2.2 Steps in the PA Methodology ............................................................................8
1.2.3 Evolution and Adaptation in the SNL PA Methodology .................................15
2. INTERNATIONAL SUBSEABED DISPOSAL PROJECT (1973–1987) .............................29
2.1 Methodology Development ...........................................................................................32
2.2 Subseabed Disposal Project PAs ...................................................................................34
2.2.1 PA Development 1974–1983 ...........................................................................35
2.2.2 1983 Subseabed Disposal PA ..........................................................................36
2.2.3 1987 Subseabed Disposal PA ..........................................................................41
2.3 Significance of the Subseabed Disposal Project in the Historical Development of
the PA Methodology .....................................................................................................45
3. NRC LICENSING AND REGULATORY SUPPORT (1976–1993) .....................................49
3.1 Background ....................................................................................................................49
3.2 Regulatory Development ...............................................................................................49
3.3 PA Methodology Advancement .....................................................................................52
3.4 PAs for Generic HLW Repositories ..............................................................................55
3.4.1 HLW Disposal in Generic Salt Repository ......................................................56
3.4.2 HLW Disposal in Generic Basalt Repository ..................................................58
3.4.3 HLW Disposal in Generic Tuff Repository .....................................................60
3.5 PAs for Generic LLW Near-Surface Disposal...............................................................61
3.6 Significance of NRC Licensing Projects in the Historical Development of the PA
Methodology .................................................................................................................62
4. DOE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (1975—) ..........................................................65
4.1 Development and Description of CAMCON for the WIPP PAs ...................................69
4.2 Early Iterative PAs .........................................................................................................75
4.2.1 Demonstration WIPP PA (1989) .....................................................................76
4.2.2 First Iteration WIPP PA (1990) .......................................................................77
4.2.3 Second Iteration WIPP PA (1991) ...................................................................78
4.2.4 Third Iteration WIPP PA (1992) ......................................................................78
4.3 1994 Systems Prioritization Method ..............................................................................80
4.4 1996 Compliance Certification Application PA ............................................................83
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4.5 PA Analyses for Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project (Idaho)
Supercompacted Waste and Other Waste Forms ..........................................................86
4.6 Recertification PAs (2004, 2009) ..................................................................................89
4.7 PA Analyses for WIPP Disposal of Greater-Than-Class-C Low-Level Radioactive
Waste (2008–2010) .......................................................................................................91
4.8 Significance of WIPP PA in the Historical Development of the PA Methodology ......95
5. YUCCA MOUNTAIN TOTAL SYSTEM PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT (1984–
2010) ........................................................................................................................................97
5.1 Background ....................................................................................................................99
5.2 Yucca Mountain PAs ...................................................................................................105
5.2.1 Preliminary Estimates on Yucca Mountain Site Performance .......................105
5.2.2 TSPA-1991 ....................................................................................................106
5.2.3 TSPA-1993 ....................................................................................................110
5.2.4 TSPA-1995 ....................................................................................................114
5.2.5 TSPA for Viability Assessment (TSPA-VA) (1998) .....................................118
5.2.6 TSPA for Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) and Supplemental PAs
(2000-2001)....................................................................................................121
5.2.7 2008 TSPA for License Application (TSPA-LA) ..........................................124
5.3 Significance of Yucca Mountain Repository PA in the Historical Development of
the PA Methodology ...................................................................................................127
6. DOE GREATER CONFINEMENT DISPOSAL PAs (1989–2001) .....................................131
6.1 Background ..................................................................................................................131
6.2 First Iteration (1993) ....................................................................................................131
6.3 Second Iteration (1994)................................................................................................137
6.4 Final PA Iteration (2001) .............................................................................................138
6.5 Demonstration for Vitrified Fernald Waste (1997) .....................................................141
6.6 Significance of the DOE Greater Confinement Borehole Disposal PAs in the
Historical Development of the PA Methodology ........................................................142
7. DEMONSTRATION FOR GEOLOGIC DISPOSAL OF DOE-OWNED SNF AND
HLW STORED AT INL (1993–1998) ..................................................................................143
7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................143
7.2 INL HLW PAs .............................................................................................................144
7.2.1 1993 Performance Assessment ......................................................................144
7.2.2 1994 Performance Assessment ......................................................................146
7.2.3 1997 Performance Assessment ......................................................................147
7.3 Significance of INL HLW PAs in the Historical Development of the PA
Methodology ...............................................................................................................152
8. OTHER APPLICATIONS AND ENHANCEMENTS OF THE SNL
PA METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................153
8.1 PA Methodology for Long-Term Cover Systems and PA for Monticello, Utah,
Mill Tailings Repository (2000–2002) ........................................................................153
8.2 SNL Mixed Waste Landfill PA (2005–2007) ..............................................................156
8.3 Deep Borehole Disposal Preliminary Performance Assessment (2009)......................160
8.4 Shale Disposal Feasibility Preliminary Performance Assessment (2010) ...................164
8.4.1 Shale Repository Design Concept .................................................................164
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8.4.2 Shale Disposal Performance Assessment ......................................................166
8.4.3 Implementation of Models .............................................................................168
8.4.4 Results ............................................................................................................169
8.5 Granite Disposal Feasibility Preliminary Performance Assessment (2011) ................170
8.5.1 Granite Repository Concept for Scoping PA .................................................172
8.5.2 FEPs Analysis and Scenario Development ....................................................172
8.5.3 Implementation of Models .............................................................................174
8.5.4 Results ............................................................................................................176
8.6 Egypt, Iraq, and Taiwan: PAs and General Waste Management Support for
International Radioactive Waste Management Programs ...........................................179
8.6.1 Egypt: Integrated Management Program for Radioactive Sealed Sources ....179
8.6.2 Iraq Nuclear Facility Dismantlement and Disposal Program ........................180
8.6.3 Taiwan: Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal, Preliminary Analyses .....181
8.7 Preliminary Development of an Enhanced PA System for Geologic Carbon
Sequestration (2010) ....................................................................................................186
8.7.1 Enhanced PA System Methodology ..............................................................188
8.7.2 PA Development and Implementation ...........................................................189
8.7.3 Conclusions from the Preliminary PA ...........................................................192
9. CONCLUSIONS AND CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS .....................................................195
10. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................201

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