Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications

3512 Pages·2008·43.94 MB·English

by  Sebastián Martorell

SAFETY,RELIABILITYANDRISKANALYSIS:THEORY,METHODS
ANDAPPLICATIONS

PROCEEDINGSOFTHEEUROPEANSAFETYANDRELIABILITYCONFERENCE,ESREL2008,
AND17THSRA-EUROPE,VALENCIA,SPAIN,SEPTEMBER,22–25,2008
Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis:
Theory, Methods and Applications
Editors
Sebastián Martorell
DepartmentofChemicalandNuclearEngineering,
UniversidadPolitécnicadeValencia,Spain
C. Guedes Soares
InstitutoSuperiorTécnico,TechnicalUniversityofLisbon,Lisbon,Portugal
Julie Barnett
DepartmentofPsychology,UniversityofSurrey,UK
VOLUME 1
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Safety,ReliabilityandRiskAnalysis:Theory,MethodsandApplications–Martorelletal.(eds)
©2009Taylor&FrancisGroup,London,ISBN978-0-415-48513-5
Table of contents
Preface XXIV
Organization XXXI
Acknowledgment XXXV
Introduction XXXVII
VOLUME1
Thematicareas
Accidentandincidentinvestigation
Acodeforthesimulationofhumanfailureeventsinnuclearpowerplants:SIMPROC 3
J.Gil,J.Esperón,L.Gamo,I.Fernández,P.González,J.Moreno,A.Expósito,
C.Queral,G.Rodríguez&J.Hortal
Apreliminaryanalysisofthe‘Tlahuac’incidentbyapplyingtheMORTtechnique 11
J.R.Santos-Reyes,S.Olmos-Peña&L.M.Hernández-Simón
Comparingamulti-linear(STEP)andsystemic(FRAM)methodforaccidentanalysis 19
I.A.Herrera&R.Woltjer
DevelopmentofadatabaseforreportingandanalysisofnearmissesintheItalian
chemicalindustry 27
R.V.Gagliardi&G.Astarita
Developmentofincidentreportanalysissystembasedonm-SHELontology 33
Y.Asada,T.Kanno&K.Furuta
ForkliftsoverturnincidentsandpreventioninTaiwan 39
K.Y.Chen,S.-H.Wu&C.-M.Shu
Formalmodellingofincidentsandaccidentsasameansforenrichingtrainingmaterial
forsatellitecontroloperations 45
S.Basnyat,P.Palanque,R.Bernhaupt&E.Poupart
Hazardfactorsanalysisinregionaltrafficrecords 57
M.Mlynczak&J.Sipa
Organizationalanalysisofavailability:Whatarethelessonsforahighriskindustrialcompany? 63
M.Voirin,S.Pierlot&Y.Dien
Thermalexplosionanalysisofmethylethylketoneperoxidebynon-isothermal
andisothermalcalorimetryapplication 71
S.H.Wu,J.M.Tseng&C.M.Shu
V
Crisisandemergencymanagement
Amathematicalmodelforriskanalysisofdisasterchains 79
A.XueweiJi,B.WenguoWeng&PanLi
Effectivelearningfromemergencyresponses 83
K.Eriksson&J.Borell
Ontheconstructiveroleofmulti-criteriaanalysisincomplexdecision-making:
Anapplicationinradiologicalemergencymanagement 89
C.Turcanu,B.Carlé,J.Paridaens&F.Hardeman
Decisionsupportsystemsandsoftwaretoolsforsafetyandreliability
Complex,expertbasedmulti-roleassessmentsystemforsmallandmediumenterprises 99
S.G.Kovacs&M.Costescu
DETECT:Anovelframeworkforthedetectionofattackstocriticalinfrastructures 105
F.Flammini,A.Gaglione,N.Mazzocca&C.Pragliola
Methodologyandsoftwareplatformformulti-layercausalmodeling 113
K.M.Groth,C.Wang,D.Zhu&A.Mosleh
SCAIS(SimulationCodeSystemforIntegratedSafetyAssessment):Current
statusandapplications 121
J.M.Izquierdo,J.Hortal,M.Sánchez,E.Meléndez,R.Herrero,J.Gil,L.Gamo,
I.Fernández,J.Esperón,P.González,C.Queral,A.Expósito&G.Rodríguez
UsingGISandmultivariateanalysestovisualizerisklevelsandspatialpatterns
ofsevereaccidentsintheenergysector 129
P.Burgherr
Weaksignalsofpotentialaccidentsat‘‘Seveso’’establishments 137
P.A.Bragatto,P.Agnello,S.Ansaldi&P.Pittiglio
Dynamicreliability
Adynamicfaultclassificationscheme 147
B.Fechner
Importancefactorsindynamicreliability 155
R.Eymard,S.Mercier&M.Roussignol
TSD,aSCAISsuitablevariantoftheSDTPD 163
J.M.Izquierdo&I.Cañamón
Faultidentificationanddiagnostics
Applicationofavapourcompressionchillerlumpedmodelforfaultdetection 175
J.Navarro-Esbrí,A.Real,D.Ginestar&S.Martorell
Automaticsourcecodeanalysisoffailuremodescausingerrorpropagation 183
S.Sarshar&R.Winther
Developmentofaprognostictooltoperformreliabilityanalysis 191
M.El-Koujok,R.Gouriveau&N.Zerhouni
Faultdetectionanddiagnosisinmonitoringahotdipgalvanizinglineusing
multivariatestatisticalprocesscontrol 201
J.C.García-Díaz
Faultidentification,diagnosisandcompensationofflatnesserrorsinhardturning
oftoolsteels 205
F.Veiga,J.Fernández,E.Viles,M.Arizmendi,A.Gil&M.L.Penalva
VI
Fromdiagnosistoprognosis:Amaintenanceexperienceforanelectriclocomotive 211
O.Borgia,F.DeCarlo&M.Tucci
Humanfactors
AstudyonthevalidityofR-TACOMmeasurebycomparingoperatorresponse
timedata 221
J.Park&W.Jung
AnevaluationoftheEnhancedBayesianTHERPmethodusingsimulatordata 227
K.Bladh,J.-E.Holmberg&P.Pyy
ComparingCESA-Qhumanreliabilityanalysiswithevidencefromsimulator:
Afirstattempt 233
L.Podofillini&B.Reer
Exploratoryandconfirmatoryanalysisoftherelationshipbetweensocialnorms
andsafetybehavior 243
C.Fugas,S.A.daSilva&J.L.Melià
Functionalsafetyandlayerofprotectionanalysiswithregardtohumanfactors 249
K.T.Kosmowski
Howemployees’useofinformationtechnologysystemsshapereliableoperations
oflargescaletechnologicalsystems 259
T.K.Andersen,P.Næsje,H.Torvatn&K.Skarholt
IncorporatingsimulatorevidenceintoHRA:Insightsfromthedataanalysisofthe
internationalHRAempiricalstudy 267
S.Massaiu,P.Ø.Braarud&M.Hildebrandt
Insightsfromthe‘‘HRAinternationalempiricalstudy’’:Howtolinkdata
andHRAwithMERMOS 275
H.Pesme,P.LeBot&P.Meyer
Operators’responsetimeestimationforacriticaltaskusingthefuzzylogictheory 281
M.Konstandinidou,Z.Nivolianitou,G.Simos,C.Kiranoudis&N.Markatos
Theconceptoforganizationalsupportiveness 291
J.Nicholls,J.Harvey&G.Erdos
Theinfluenceofpersonalvariablesonchangesindriverbehaviour 299
S.Heslop,J.Harvey,N.Thorpe&C.Mulley
ThekeyroleofexpertjudgmentinCO undergroundstorageprojects 305
2
C.Vivalda&L.Jammes
Integratedriskmanagementandrisk—informeddecision-making
All-hazardsriskframework—Anarchitecturemodel 315
S.Verga
Comparisonsanddiscussionofdifferentintegratedriskapproaches 323
R.Steen&T.Aven
Managementofriskcausedbydominoeffectresultingfromdesign
systemdysfunctions 331
S.Sperandio,V.Robin&Ph.Girard
Onsomeaspectsrelatedtotheuseofintegratedriskanalysesforthedecision
makingprocess,includingitsuseinthenon-nuclearapplications 341
D.Serbanescu,A.L.VetereArellano&A.Colli
OntheusageofweatherderivativesinAustria—Anempiricalstudy 351
M.Bank&R.Wiesner
VII
Precautioninpractice?Thecaseofnanomaterialindustry 361
H.Kastenholz,A.Helland&M.Siegrist
Riskbasedmaintenanceprioritisation 365
G.Birkeland,S.Eisinger&T.Aven
Shiftsinenvironmentalhealthriskgovernance:Ananalyticalframework 369
H.A.C.Runhaar,J.P.vanderSluijs&P.P.J.Driessen
Whatdoes‘‘safetymargin’’reallymean? 379
J.Hortal,R.Mendizábal&F.Pelayo
Legislativedimensionsofriskmanagement
Accidents,riskanalysisandsafetymanagement—Differentperspectiveata
Swedishsafetyauthority 391
O.Harrami,M.Strömgren,U.Postgård&R.All
EvaluationofriskandsafetyissuesattheSwedishRescueServicesAgency 399
O.Harrami,U.Postgård&M.Strömgren
Regulationofinformationsecurityandtheimpactontopmanagementcommitment—
Acomparativestudyoftheelectricpowersupplysectorandthefinancesector 407
J.M.Hagen&E.Albrechtsen
Theunintendedconsequencesofriskregulation 415
B.H.MacGillivray,R.E.Alcock&J.S.Busby
Maintenancemodellingandoptimisation
Ahybridage-basedmaintenancepolicyforheterogeneousitems 423
P.A.Scarf,C.A.V.Cavalcante,R.W.Dwight&P.Gordon
Astochasticprocessmodelforcomputingthecostofacondition-basedmaintenanceplan 431
J.A.M.vanderWeide,M.D.Pandey&J.M.vanNoortwijk
Astudyaboutinfluenceofuncertaindistributioninputsinmaintenanceoptimization 441
R.Mullor,S.Martorell,A.Sánchez&N.Martinez-Alzamora
Agingprocessesasaprimaryaspectofpredictingreliabilityandlifeofaeronauticalhardware 449
J.Z˙urek,M.Zieja,G.Kowalczyk&T.Niezgoda
Analternativeimperfectpreventivemaintenancemodel 455
J.Clavareau&P.E.Labeau
Animperfectpreventivemaintenancemodelwithdependentfailuremodes 463
I.T.Castro
Condition-basedmaintenanceapproachesfordeterioratingsysteminfluenced
byenvironmentalconditions 469
E.Deloux,B.Castanier&C.Bérenguer
Condition-basedmaintenancebyparticlefiltering 477
F.Cadini,E.Zio&D.Avram
Correctivemaintenanceforagingairconditioningsystems 483
I.Frenkel,L.Khvatskin&A.Lisnianski
Exactreliabilityquantificationofhighlyreliablesystemswithmaintenance 489
R.Briš
Geneticalgorithmoptimizationofpreventivemaintenanceschedulingforrepairable
systemsmodeledbygeneralizedrenewalprocess 497
P.A.A.Garcia,M.C.Sant’Ana,V.C.Damaso&P.F.FrutuosoeMelo
VIII
Maintenancemodellingintegratinghumanandmaterialresources 505
S.Martorell,M.Villamizar,A.Sánchez&G.Clemente
Modellingcompetingrisksandopportunisticmaintenancewithexpertjudgement 515
T.Bedford&B.M.Alkali
Modellingdifferenttypesoffailureandresiduallifeestimationforcondition-basedmaintenance 523
M.J.Carr&W.Wang
Multi-componentsystemsmodelingforquantifyingcomplexmaintenancestrategies 531
V.Zille,C.Bérenguer,A.Grall,A.Despujols&J.Lonchampt
Multiobjectiveoptimizationofredundancyallocationinsystemswithimperfectrepairsvia
antcolonyanddiscreteeventsimulation 541
I.D.Lins&E.LópezDroguett
Non-homogeneousMarkovrewardmodelforagingmulti-statesystemundercorrective
maintenance 551
A.Lisnianski&I.Frenkel
OnthemodelingofageingusingWeibullmodels:Casestudies 559
P.Praks,H.FernandezBacarizo&P.-E.Labeau
On-linecondition-basedmaintenanceforsystemswithseveralmodesofdegradation 567
A.Ponchet,M.Fouladirad&A.Grall
Opportunity-basedagereplacementforasystemundertwotypesoffailures 575
F.G.Badía&M.D.Berrade
Optimalinspectionintervalsformaintainableequipment 581
O.Hryniewicz
Optimalperiodicinspectionofseriessystemswithrevealedandunrevealedfailures 587
M.Carvalho,E.Nunes&J.Telhada
Optimalperiodicinspection/replacementpolicyfordeterioratingsystemswithexplanatory
variables 593
X.Zhao,M.Fouladirad,C.Bérenguer&L.Bordes
Optimalreplacementpolicyforcomponentswithgeneralfailureratessubmittedtoobsolescence 603
S.Mercier
Optimizationofthemaintenancefunctionatacompany 611
S.Adjabi,K.Adel-Aissanou&M.Azi
Planningandschedulingmaintenanceresourcesinacomplexsystem 619
M.Newby&C.Barker
Preventivemaintenanceplanningusingpriorexpertknowledgeandmulticriteriamethod
PROMETHEEIII 627
F.A.Figueiredo,C.A.V.Cavalcante&A.T.deAlmeida
Profitabilityassessmentofoutsourcingmaintenancefromtheproducer(bigrotarymachinestudy) 635
P.Fuchs&J.Zajicek
Simulatedannealingmethodfortheselectivemaintenanceoptimizationofmulti-mission
series-parallelsystems 641
A.Khatab,D.Ait-Kadi&A.Artiba
Studyontheavailabilityofak-out-of-N Systemgivenlimitedsparesunder(m,N )
G
maintenancepolicy 649
T.Zhang,H.T.Lei&B.Guo
Systemvaluetrajectories,maintenance,anditspresentvalue 659
K.B.Marais&J.H.Saleh
IX