Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations

257 Pages·2015·1 MB·English

by  David Cadier, Margot Light (eds.)

Russia’s Foreign Policy
David Cadier
and
Margot Light
Ideas, Domestic Politics and
External Relations
Palgrave Studies in International Relations Series
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GREAT POWER PEACE AND AMERICAN PRIMACY
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GLOBAL NORMS, AMERICAN SPONSORSHIP AND THE EMERGING PATTERNS
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ÉMIGRÉ SCHOLARS AND THE GENESIS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
A European Discipline in America?
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POSTCOLONIAL CITIZENS AND ETHNIC MIGRATION
The Netherlands and Japan in the Age of Globalization
Darshan Vigneswaran
TERRITORY, MIGRATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL
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Wolfgang Wagner, Wouter Werner and Michal Onderco ( editors )
DEVIANCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
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Russia’s Foreign Policy
Ideas, Domestic Politics and
External Relations
Edited by
David Cadier
Fellow in Diplomacy and International Strategy, London School of Economics, UK
and
Margot Light
Professor Emeritus, London School of Economics, UK
Palgrave
macmillan
Introduction, conclusion, selection and editorial matter © David Cadier and
Margot Light 2015
Remaining chapters © Contributors 2015
Foreword © Sir Rodric Braithwaite 2015
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-46887-1
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Russia’s foreign policy : Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations /
David Cadier, Fellow in Diplomacy and International Strategy, London School
of Economics, UK and Margot Light, Professor Emeritus, London School of
Economics, UK.
pages cm. — (Palgrave studies in international relations)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Russia (Federation) – Foreign relations. I. Cadier, David, 1983– editor,
author. II. Light, Margot, editor, author.
DK510.764.R8828 2015
327.47 —dc23 2015005089
Contents
Foreword vii
Sir Rodric Braithwaite
Acknowledgements xi
Notes on Contributors xiii
List of Abbreviations xvii
Introduction 1
Margot Light and David Cadier
Part I Perceptions and Ideas in
Russian Foreign Policy
1 Russian Foreign Policy Themes in Official Documents and
Speeches: Tracing Continuity and Change 13
Margot Light
2 Russian Foreign Policy as Exercise in Nation Building 30
Dmitri Trenin
3 How Vladimir Putin’s World View Shapes Russian
Foreign Policy 42
Fiona Hill
Part II Domestic Politics
4 Dualism at Home and Abroad: Russian Foreign Policy
Neo-revisionism and Bicontinentalism 6 5
Richard Sakwa
5 The Rising Cost of Russia’s Authoritarian Foreign Policy 80
Marie Mendras
6 Russia’s Foreign Policy and Soft Power 97
Tomila Lankina and Kinga Niemczyk
v
vi Contents
Part III External Relations
7 Mismatched Partners: US–Russia Relations
after the Cold War 1 17
Andrew C. Kuchins
8 Refracting Europe: Biopolitical Conservatism and
Art Protest in Putin’s Russia 138
Andrey Makarychev and Alexandra Yatsyk
9 Policies towards the Post-Soviet Space: The Eurasian
Economic Union as an Attempt to Develop Russia’s
Structural Power? 156
David Cadier
10 Russia and Asia-Pacific: Diversification or Sinocentrism? 1 75
Natasha Kuhrt
11 Russia in International Organizations:
The Shift from Defence to Offence 189
Ian Bond
Conclusion: Foreign Policy as the Continuation of
Domestic Politics by Other Means 204
David Cadier and Margot Light
References 217
Index 241
Foreword
Since Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, oceans of ink have been
spilt trying to work out who he is, what he stands for, and what he is up
to. Some argue that he is a mere KGB thug, turning his professional skills
to the wider stage of domestic and international affairs. Others find him
arbitrary, unpredictable, another Russian riddle wrapped in a mystery.
In fact we know a great deal about Putin. His biography has been
explored in detail. He has talked and written at length about his political
ideas and intentions. As Margot Light points out in her contribution to
the present book, he and his government have set out their views on
foreign policy openly, systematically and, until recently, consistently.
Putin believes that Russia is a great country with unique traditions,
European despite its vast territories in Asia, truly Christian and Orthodox,
unlike the schismatics and heretics who call themselves Christian in the
West. 1 He said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was ‘ the greatest
geopolitical catastrophe of the age’ . But that was not a call to restore the
Soviet Union: he was lamenting the humiliating end of a great power
with a glorious history. Russians shared his grief. 2
Western policy towards Russia after the collapse has mostly been well-
meaning. But it was too often arrogant and self-serving: thus counter-
productive. President Bush (senior) said in January 1992: ‘B y the grace of
God, America won the cold war. ... [The] world ... now recognizes one sole and
preeminent power, the United States of America.’3 President Clinton admitted
ruefully in 1996: ‘ We keep telling Ol’ Boris [President Yeltsin] , “Okay, now
here’s what you’ve got to do next – here’s some more shit for your face.’ ”4
And so for a decade Westerners lectured Moscow on where its real
interests lay, and expected it to follow where the West led. They rarely
listened to what Russians said in response, because Russian concerns
seemed unimportant, misguided, or unacceptable. The implication was
that Russia, shorn of power, had no choice but to adopt ‘Western’ values
and become part of the ‘West’.
And so the West enlarged NATO, despite repeated oral assurances. It
ignored Russian arguments about the overriding principle of national
sovereignty, bombed Belgrade and detached Kosovo from Serbia, Russia’s
long-term friend. It gave Putin scant credit when he closed Russian bases
in Cuba and Vietnam and helped the Americans with supply routes
vii
viii Foreword
to Afghanistan. It dismissed his prophetic warnings about the conse-
quences of military action in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Iran, and Syria
as mere obstructionism. Ordinary Russians as well as Putin himself were
increasingly infuriated.
Foreign policy is everywhere constrained by geography and history.
But it is driven from day to day by domestic politics. Putin promised to
promote democracy, economic liberalism and the rule of law, to end the
chaos and corruption that had flourished under Yeltsin, and to restore
Russia to its rightful place as a great and independent power, no longer
the mere object of other people’s designs. Russians welcomed all that.
But stability at home and power abroad trumped all other objectives.
Putin believes that the Soviet Union had been brought down, not by its
own inadequacies, but by home-grown ‘liberals’ and traitors, encour-
aged by ruthless foreign agencies. He saw a Western hand behind the
coloured revolutions in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. He is determined that
nothing like that should happen in Russia. He became increasingly
authoritarian at home and assertive abroad. He gestured towards Asia,
to show that Russia too had choices. Frustrating Western designs became
an objective in its own right, a way of ramming home Russia’s newfound
independence.
The deal that Putin offered the Russians – order and prosperity at
home, renewed dignity abroad – depended on economic growth fuelled
by a high oil price. It was threatened by the financial crisis of 2008.
Putin’s ratings began to fall. Disgruntled at the growth of corruption and
arbitrary government, his opponents demonstrated in the big cities.
It was the eve of Putin’s re-election as president. Something needed
to be done. Putin dealt with the domestic protesters by skilful repres-
sion. To rally the rest, he adopted the time-honoured expedient of an
adventure abroad.
Ukraine was a very fragile country. Both Russia and the West had
interfered in its affairs: the West claiming to build Ukrainian democ-
racy; Putin determined to prevent that democracy infecting Russia. Both
miscalculated.
The Russians had problems with Ukraine over trade. They worried,
with only moderate justification, about discrimination against Ukraine’s
Russian speakers. They feared for the future of their naval base in Crimea
if Ukraine joined NATO. These concerns could have been resolved
through negotiation. Instead, in the spring of 2014, Putin chose to
use force, backed by a barrage of propaganda which inflamed passions
all round. As their nationalism reached fever pitch, Russians quoted
Machiavelli: it is better to be feared than loved.
Foreword ix
Putin had previously shown a cautious streak: he had known when
to stop his war against Georgia in 2008. Perhaps he thought that the
West would again react with mild and passing censure. If so, he seri-
ously miscalculated. Ukraine was a much bigger prize than Georgia.
The fears of Russia’s neighbours, always latent, ran high. The West had
no choice but to take sharp action: imposing sanctions, strengthening
NATO, helping Kyiv.
As sanctions began to bite, the oil price to fall, and the body bags to
come home from Ukraine, Putin’s deal with the Russians risked unravel-
ling and he seemed at a loss. He could use military force more widely
abroad. He could impose greater repression at home. Both had disad-
vantages. He was unlikely simply to throw in his hand. But no one in
Moscow seemed poised to remove him.
The West, too, was short of measured and effective ideas to restrain
Putin, as it sought to resolve the conflict through negotiation, some-
thing between acquiescence and escalation. This was a major crisis. But
it was not a new Cold War, a hair-trigger nuclear confrontation which
could kill millions of people. False historical analogy and inflated rhet-
oric would bring nobody nearer to a satisfactory conclusion.
* * *
The present book makes a sober, scholarly, and valuable contribution to
understanding what is driving Russian policy in the present crisis, which
appears to mark a qualitative change in Russia’s relationship with the
outside world.
The distinguished contributors show how clearly Putin has set out
his ideas since he first assumed power. Like political leaders everywhere,
they argue, he cannot divorce his foreign policy from the everyday
vagaries of domestic politics and his own political ambitions. But his
thoughts about foreign policy, they point out, are deeply rooted. They
are closely connected with his ideas about the future of Russia: a Russia
which makes its own fate, which is not simply shaped by the ideas and
values of Europe and America, which has other choices, not least in
Asia, and which is trying to pursue its aims with a wider range of means,
including a rather unconvincing version of ‘soft power’. Whether we
like that or not is irrelevant: we cannot make sensible policy towards
Putin’s Russia unless we understand it.
Much Western commentary on the crisis in Ukraine has been bedev-
illed by ignorance. This book helps to dispel the aura of mystery.
Sir Rodric Braithwaite