Russian Federation [1997-1998]

292 Pages·1997·1.497 MB·English

by  OECD

(cid:211) OECD, 1997.
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OECD
ECONOMIC
SURVEYS
1997-1998
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960,
and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed:
– to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising
standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and
thus to contribute to the development of the world economy;
– to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member
countries in the process of economic development; and
– to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory
basis in accordance with international obligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada,
Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the
United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members
subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964),
Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973),
Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary
(7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996) and the Republic of Korea
(12th December 1996). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the
work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
Publie´ e´galement en franc¸ais.
(cid:211) OECD 1997
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Table of contents
Preface ix
Assessment and recommendations 1
Introduction 25
I. Macroeconomic performance, policies and prospects 28
The seemingly endless contraction 28
Adjustment in the labour market 38
The end of high inflation 41
Monetary and exchange rate policy 46
The fiscal challenges 51
Integration into the world economy 64
The current situation, near-term prospects and risks 72
II. Commercial banks 78
Introduction 78
The changing environment of commercial banking in Russia 79
The state of the commercial banking sector: 1995-1997 85
The large Moscow banks 94
Banking in the regions 98
Commercial banks, investment and corporate governance:
problems and prospects 102
Commercial banking in the Russian Federation: the first signs of stability
or impending crisis? 108
III. Enterprises 112
Restructuring and the rise of money surrogates 113
Insolvency and bankruptcy 119
Investment 123
iii
Barriers to restructuring and investment: corporate governance, capital
markets, the tax system, and regional protectionism 129
Small businesses and entrepreneurship 135
Privatisation 138
Institutional development, competition, and future prospects 143
Notes 147
Bibliography 161
Annexes
I. The large Moscow banks 172
II. Money surrogates 178
III. Fiscal federalism 186
IV. Policy processes 200
V. Chronology of main economic events and policy measures 224
VI. Living standards 235
VII. Statistical tables 243
VIII. Competition law and policy in the Russian Federation: the role
of the State Anti-monopoly Committee 258
IX. OECD co-operation with the Russian Federation 272
Boxes
1. The 1995 revision of the national accounts 30
2. Moscow and Russia 35
3. How big is the budget deficit? 55
4. The legal and regulatory framework for Russian commercial banking 83
5. A successful regional bank: Solidarnost 101
6. Gazprom as a quasi-fiscal institution 123
Annexes
An.1. Presidential administration 209
An.2. Russian Federation executive agencies 214
Tables
Text
1. An ageing capital stock 38
2. A new structure of consumer prices emerged 44
3. Summary fiscal indicators 53
iv
4. Domestic public debt 62
5. External public debt 72
6. Summary of outcomes and projections 75
7. Draft 1998 federal budget 76
8. The evolution of Russian banking 80
9. Selected consolidated balance sheet indicators 90
10. Commercial bank credit in selected central and eastern European
countries 92
11. Shares of banking balance sheet totals, 1 January 1997 93
12. Balance sheet items, 1 January 1997 93
13. Commercial credit and arrears of banks by regions 99
14. Selected indicators for Russian industry 114
15. Distribution of losses and loss-making enterprises in industry,
construction and transportation 115
16. The activities of the State Tax Inspection and the Federal Insolvency
Agency, 1996 120
17. Sources of fixed capital investment 126
18. Foreign investment in the Russian Federation 127
19. Medium-term investment plan of the Russian Government 129
20. Small businesses 136
21. Results of privatisation 139
22. The largest deals in the shares-for-loans auctions, 1995 140
Annexes
An.1. Key balance sheet indicators for the largest 23 banks, at 1 January 1997 173
An.2. Non-money fiscal flows within selected regions in 1996 181
An.3. Division of general government revenue and expenditure 188
An.4. Components of federal and regional budgets 189
An.5. Federal transfers to the regions as share of GDP 190
An.6. Special economic zones 193
An.7. Selected characteristics of main types of federally-mandated social
benefits as of 1 January 1997 237
Statistical annex
A1. Energy balance 244
A2. Main components of GDP 245
A3. Long-run evolution of employment by sector 246
A4. Employment and unemployment 247
A5. Average wages and other incomes 248
v
A6. Evolution of main deflators 249
A7. Required reserves 251
A8. Monetary survey 252
A9. Federal budget 253
A10. Arrears 254
A11. Balance of payments 255
A12. Sectoral structure of external trade 257
Figures
Text
1. The Great Contraction 29
2. Production of selected commodities 32
3. Regions’ industrial fortunes and misfortunes 33
4. Are fuels a regional buffer? 34
5. Real wages paid 37
6. Open unemployment 39
7. Unemployment and output 40
8. Disinflation 42
9. Relative producer price volatility has declined 43
10. Consumer prices 45
11. Exchange rate developments 47
12. Gross foreign exchange reserves and use of IMF credit 48
13. Annualised interest rates 49
14. Soaring arrears 50
15. Remonetisation 52
16. The incipient debt spiral 63
17. Fuel exports 66
18. Minimum charter capital requirements for new banks 81
19. The changing structure of commercial bank assets 87
20. The changing structure of commercial bank liabilities 88
21. Share of Moscow banks in assets and commercial credit 95
22. Share of the five largest banks in gross assets of commercial banks 95
23. Share of barter in industrial sales 116
24. Surrogate money and tax arrears to federal and regional budgets, 1996 118
25. Fixed capital investment 124
26. The stock market boom 131
vi
BASIC STATISTICS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
(1996 unless otherwise noted)
THE LAND Area (sq. km.) 17 075
Agricultural area (thousand sq. km.) 2 220
THE PEOPLE Population (thousands, end-year) 147 976
Inhabitants per sq. km. (end-year) 8.7
Average annual population growth (per cent, 1992-96) –0.5
Employment (millions, end-year) 65.9
By sector (per cent of total)
State and municipal enterprises and organisations 37
Private sector 38
Mixed form of ownership 24
By branch (per cent of total, 1995)
Industry 26
Agriculture and forestry 16
Construction 10
Unemployment rate (per cent of labour force, end-year) 9.3
Inhabitants in major cities (thousands)
Moscow 8 664
St. Petersburg 4 801
Nizhnii Novgorod 1 376
Novosibirsk 1 368
GOVERNMENT/ Bicameral Parliamentary system (The Federal Assembly)
ADMINISTRATION Council of the Federation (upper house) 178 seats
State Duma (lower house) 450 seats
Number of registered political groups in the State Duma 7
Regional government
Subjects of the Federation, of which: 89
Republics 21
Krais (territories) 6
Oblasts (regions) 49
Autonomous oblast 1
Autonomous okrugs (areas) 10
City of Moscow
City of St. Petersburg
PRODUCTION GDP (Rbs trillion, current prices) 2 256
GDP per capita ($US, market exchange rate) 2 977
PUBLIC FINANCE General government revenue (per cent of GDP) 30
General government expenditure (per cent of GDP) 39
Domestic public debt (per cent of GDP, end-year) 20
FOREIGN TRADE Exports of goods and services ($US billion) 102.4
AND FINANCE Imports of goods and services ($US billion) 86.0
Central bank gross foreign exchange reserves ($US billion, mid-1997) 20.4
Gross external public debt (per cent of GDP, end-year) 28
THE CURRENCY Monetary unit: Rouble
Currency units per US dollar:
Year 1996 (average) 5 121
December 1996 (average) 5 537
End-October 1997 5 900
The draft document on which this Survey is based
was prepared under the supervision of Silvana Malle
and principal authorship of Vincent Koen and John
Litwack. Contributions were also made by Stephan
Barisitz, Seija Lainela, and Donald Van Atta. Technical
assistance was provided by Laura Garcia and
secretarial assistance by Hazel Rhodes, Vale´rie
Luccioni and Anne Prioul. The Survey was carried out
in the context of the CCET country-specific programme
for the Russian Federation, and was presented at a
meeting of the Economic and Development Review
Committee on 30 September 1997.
•
This Survey is published under the responsibility of
the Secretary-General of the OECD.