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Global Power Shift Sarah Kirchberger Svenja Sinjen Nils Wörmer Editors Russia-China Relations Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? Global Power Shift SeriesEditor XuewuGu,CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Bonn,Germany AdvisoryEditors G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,Princeton,NJ,USA CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,Beijing,China SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,NewDelhi,India BeateNeuss,ChemnitzUniversityofTechnology,Chemnitz,Germany CarlaNorrlof,UniversityofToronto,Toronto,Canada DingliShen,FudanUniversity,Shanghai,China KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Tokyo,Japan RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Milano,Italy ManagingEditor Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Ampleempiricalevidencepointstorecentpowershiftsinmultipleareasofinterna- tionalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemergingpowers, as well as between states and non-state actors. However, there is a dearth of theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central issues to be addressed include theoretical questions and empirical puzzles: How can studies of global power shift and the rise of ‘emerging powers’ benefit from existingtheories,andwhichalternativeaspectsandtheoreticalapproachesmightbe suitable?Howcanthemeanings,perceptions,dynamics,andconsequencesofglobal power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly innovative research on these topics. It aims to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different disciplines, including political science, economicsandhumangeography.Theoverallaimistodiscussandpossiblyblend their different approaches and provide new frameworks for understanding global affairsandthegovernanceofglobalpowershifts. Alltitlesinthisseriesarepeer-reviewed. * * * ThisbookseriesisindexedinScopus. (cid:129) (cid:129) Sarah Kirchberger Svenja Sinjen Nils Wörmer Editors Russia-China Relations Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? Editors SarahKirchberger SvenjaSinjen InstituteforSecurityPolicyatKiel FoundationforScience&Democracy(SWuD) University(ISPK) Kiel,Germany Kiel,Germany NilsWörmer Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Berlin,Germany ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic) GlobalPowerShift ISBN978-3-030-97011-6 ISBN978-3-030-97012-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97012-3 FundingInformation:Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2022.Thisbookisanopenaccesspublication. OpenAccessThisbookislicensedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any mediumor format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the originalauthor(s)andthesource,providealinktotheCreativeCommonslicenseandindicateifchanges weremade. Theimagesorotherthirdpartymaterialinthisbookareincludedinthebook'sCreativeCommonslicense, unlessindicatedotherwiseinacreditlinetothematerial.Ifmaterialisnotincludedinthebook'sCreative Commonslicenseandyourintendeduseisnotpermittedbystatutoryregulationorexceedsthepermitted use,youwillneedtoobtainpermissiondirectlyfromthecopyrightholder. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe editorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland In memoriam Hannes Adomeit (1942–2022) Acknowledgments This volume is the outcome of a 2-year research process in which several dozen people from all over the globe were involved in some form or other, and that took placelargelyduringaglobalpandemic.Apublicationprojectofthistypetypically resemblesamarathonthatendsinasprint,andthiswasnoexception.Therefore,the editors areextremelygratefultoeachandeverytypeofcontributiontothisproject thattheyreceivedalongtheway,whetherlargeorsmall,andwhatfollowsbelowis bynomeansanexhaustivelisting. Aboveall,wewouldliketothankthecontributorsofthisvolume,whowereallin somewayorotherdetrimentallyaffectedbythepandemic—someinarathersevere way—and yet, nonetheless, found the time to contribute their extremely valuable knowledgeandenergytothisproject.Wearehugelygratefultothemforprioritizing this project among the manifold obligations and challenges they faced along the way,andhopeverymuchthattheyarepleasedwiththeoutcome. SvenjaSinjenofSWuDandSarahKirchbergerofISPKareespeciallygratefulto the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) for its extremely generous financial and intellectual support of their project idea from mid-2019. KAS provided the major portion of the funding for an expert in-person workshop in Berlin in mid-January 2020andhostedtwofurtherin-personevents,oneinBerlinandanotherworkshopin Brussels, all of which were decisive for sharpening the research agenda of this project.KASalsoprovidedseveralactiveparticipantstotheworkshopdiscussions, includingseveralmoderators,andalsoverygenerouslyfundedtheproductionofthis volumeasanopen-accesspublication.AtKAS,theeditorswouldparticularlyliketo thank Daniela Braun for her constant, enthusiastic support of this research project rightfromtheoutset,aswellasduringtheworkshopinBerlininJanuary2020and during the publication process. Further KAS colleagues who collaborated with us during this process include Frank Priess, Philipp Dienstbier, Thomas Yoshimura, and David Merkle, who all attended and contributed to the Berlin workshop, and Denis Schrey and Susanne Conrad of the KAS Brussels office who hosted the Brusselsworkshop. Wealsoowe Elisabeth BaueroftheKASOfficefor theBaltic statesmanythanksforherhelpinidentifyinginterestingexperts.Thevariousforms vii viii Acknowledgments ofsupportfromKAS,whetherfinancial,organizational,orintermsofexpertinput andcontent,weretrulyinvaluableforthesuccessofthisproject. At SWuD, we are indebted in particular to Astrid Kuhn, whose support of this researchaspartoftheSWuD’s“GlobalTransformation&GermanForeignPolicy” projectwasinstrumentalinallowingustogenerateaninitialconceptfortheresearch agenda and follow it through. We gratefully acknowledge the SWuD funding we received for the 2020 Berlin workshop. At ISPK, the editors would like to thank Stefan Hansen for his equally decisive support of this research project and the fundingwereceivedinsupportofthepublicationprocess. The editors are especially grateful to all the Russia, China, and security experts who participated in various roles during the research of this project, whether as discussion partners, workshop presenters, peer reviewers, or sparring partners in heated discussions. We particularly benefited from our interactions with Heinrich Brauss, Mathieu Duchâtel, Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, Phillip Karber, Holger Mey, Hanna Katharina Müller, and Timothy Reilly, and are grateful for their extremelyvaluableinput. Itiswithgreatsadnessthatweacknowledgethedebttoourcontributor,advisor, andcollaboratorHannesAdomeitwhoonApril25,2022,passedawayafterabrief illness.HehadtakenpartalreadyinourfirstprojectworkshopinJanuary2020,and besidespenningthe openingchapter for this volume also served as a reviewer and commentator.Wewereprivilegedtoworksocloselywithhimduringthepasttwo years, are immensely grateful for all his expert contributions to our project, and mourn the loss of a great scholar and dear colleague whose clearsighted and uncorruptibleanalyseswillbesorelymissed,especiallyintimessuchasthese. Wewouldalsoliketothankthemanyofficialsfromseveraldifferentnationswho participated in our related Berlin and Brussels workshops and offered us their questions,observations,andremarks. All this inputhelped ustorefinetheagenda, sharpen our questions, shape our outlook, and ultimately allowed us to form some conclusionsthathopefullyhavevaluefortheirownwork. Relatedto theproductionof this volume, atSpringer Nature, Johannes Glaeser, Niko Chtouris, and Parthiban Kannan were enthusiastic yet patient and incredibly helpful supporters of this publication project. We kindly thank the editors of the GlobalPowerShiftseriesatSpringerforacceptingthisvolumeaspartoftheirseries. Wewouldalsoliketoofferourthankstothegroupofpeerreviewerswhohave workedwithusonhelpingtheauthorsrefinethecontributionsforthisvolume.Steen Gilbertsonhasdoneafantasticjobofcopyeditingthecontributions,ofwhichonlya minoritywerewrittenbyEnglishnativespeakers.StellaKimatISPKhasrendered usinvaluableeditorialassistanceandwatchedoverouradherencetothestyleguide. Lastly,theeditorswouldliketothanktheirfamiliesandfriendsfortheirconstant patienceandsupportthroughoutthepasttwoyears.Jugglingfamilyobligationswith workwasparticularlychallengingduringthetimesoflockdown,andhasdemanded unprecedentedadaptabilityfromeveryone.Wearethereforegratefulforallthehelp andunderstandingwereceivedalongtheway. Acknowledgments ix We submitted this volume to the printers in late 2021. While we now complete thefinalproofreadingstageinmid-April2022,theRussianinvasionofUkrainethat beganonFebruary24,2022,isstillongoinganditsoutcomeuncertain.Muchasthis Russian war of aggression and the ensuing Western sanctions have dramatically changedthesecuritylandscapeofEurope,andasmuchasthecourseofthiswarwill provetobeanimportanttestcaseregardingthedepthoftheSino-Russianstrategic partnership, only minor changes to our text were still possible at this stage of the publication process, with only cursory and preliminary remarks inserted here and there.Thereadersofourvolumearekindlyaskedtobearthisinmind. Contents Introduction:AnalyzingtheShiftsinSino-RussianStrategic CooperationSince2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 SarahKirchberger,SvenjaSinjen,andNilsWörmer PartI MutualPerceptionsandNarratives Russia’sStrategicOutlookandPolicies:WhatRoleforChina?. . . . . . . 17 HannesAdomeit ImperialistMaster,ComradeinArms,Foe,Partner,andNow Ally?China’sChangingViewsofRussia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 JoIngeBekkevold DomesticPolitics:AForgottenFactorintheRussian-Chinese Relationship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 MarcinKaczmarski PartII TheMilitaryDimensionofSino-RussianCooperation:Case Studies Russian-ChineseMilitary-TechnologicalCooperationandthe UkrainianFactor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 SarahKirchberger Russia-ChinaNavalPartnershipandItsSignificance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 AlexandreSheldon-Duplaix ChineseandRussianMilitaryModernizationandtheFourth IndustrialRevolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 RichardA.BitzingerandMichaelRaska China-RussiaCooperationinNuclearDeterrence. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 141 BrianG.Carlson xi