Russia and the New World Disorder

370 Pages·2015·11.35 MB·English

by  Bobo Lo

L
“ through all the shifts in direction over the years, the core principles O
and underlying culture of Russian foreign policy have remained the Russian annexation of Crimea was one of
essentially intact, functioning in their own looking-glass world.”
the great strategic shocks of the past twenty-five years.
In this groundbreaking book, renowned scholar Bobo Lo examines the problem- R
For many in the West, Moscow’s actions in early 2014
atic interaction between Russian foreign policy and a world in rapid and uncertain u
transition. He highlights the conflict between the Kremlin’s idealized vision of a s marked the end of illusions about cooperation, and the
new multipolar order and the challenge of anarchic international realities. s return to geopolitical and ideological confrontation.
i
a Russia, for so long a peripheral presence, had become
“ O nce again, Bobo Lo has written an illuminating book on Russia’s foreign policy. With
a the central actor in a new global drama.
elegance and precision, Lo has explained why Russia, as a declining power, is still so
important for international stability, crisis management, and global issues. A must-read for n
now, and certainly a classic book for the next decade.” d
In this groundbreaking book, renowned scholar Bobo
Dr. Thomas Gomart, Director of the French Institute of International Relations
t
(IFRI), Paris Lo analyzes the broader context of the crisis by examin-
h
ing the interplay between Russian foreign policy and
“ B obo Lo offers a trenchant analysis of the challenges and choices that confront Russia in e
today’s rapidly changing global environment. He asks whether Russia is capable of jet- an increasingly anarchic international environment. He
n
tisoning its imperial mindset and becoming a modern nation-state capable of interacting
argues that Moscow’s approach to regional and global
e
more effectively both with its neighbors and with the wider world. His answer is sober-
ing—and sometimes surprising.” w affairs reflects the tension between two very different
BOBO LO is an associate fellow with the Russia and Angela Stent, Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies worlds—the perceptual and the actual.
w
(CERES), Georgetown University, and author of The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-
Eurasia Programme at Chatham House (U.K.), and
Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century. O
an associate research fellow with the Russia and New R The Kremlin highlights the decline of the West, a resur-
“ B obo Lo’s new book is elegantly written and has a masterful grasp of the pressures and
Independent States Center at the French Institute of L gent Russia, and the emergence of a new multipolar
temptations that have acted on Putin in foreign and security policy. He puts us all in
d
International Relations. He was previously director his debt.” order. But this idealized view is contradicted by a world

Robert Service, Fellow of the British Academy, and Emeritus Fellow, St. Antony’s d
of the China and Russia programs at the Centre for disorder that challenges core assumptions about the
College, University of Oxford i
European Reform, London; head of the Russia and s dominance of great powers and the utility of military
O
Eurasia Programme at Chatham House; and deputy head might. Its lesson is that only those states that embrace
R
PRaise fOR BOBO LO’s PReviOus wORk
of mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. He is change will prosper in the twenty-first century. A Russia
d
Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics is “the best
the author of Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the analysis yet of one of the world’s most important bilateral relationships.” e able to redefine itself as a modern power would exert a
R
New Geopolitics (Brookings/Chatham House, 2008). Stephen Kotkin in Foreign Affairs critical influence in many areas of international politics.
But a Russia that rests on an outdated sense of entitle-
CHATHAM HOUSE (Royal Institute of International Affairs) ment may end up instead as one of the principal casual-
HC B
London OH r
UA O ties of global transformation.
www.chathamhouse.org ST O
EH K
A i BOBO LO
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS M n
g
Washington, D.C.
S
www.brookings.edu/press
Cover by Sese/Paul Design
BP_BoboLo_Jacket_Mech.indd 1 6/23/15 2:45 PM
L
“ through all the shifts in direction over the years, the core principles O
and underlying culture of Russian foreign policy have remained the Russian annexation of Crimea was one of
essentially intact, functioning in their own looking-glass world.”
the great strategic shocks of the past twenty-five years.
In this groundbreaking book, renowned scholar Bobo Lo examines the problem- R
For many in the West, Moscow’s actions in early 2014
atic interaction between Russian foreign policy and a world in rapid and uncertain u
transition. He highlights the conflict between the Kremlin’s idealized vision of a s marked the end of illusions about cooperation, and the
new multipolar order and the challenge of anarchic international realities. s return to geopolitical and ideological confrontation.
i
a Russia, for so long a peripheral presence, had become
“ O nce again, Bobo Lo has written an illuminating book on Russia’s foreign policy. With
a the central actor in a new global drama.
elegance and precision, Lo has explained why Russia, as a declining power, is still so
important for international stability, crisis management, and global issues. A must-read for n
now, and certainly a classic book for the next decade.” d
In this groundbreaking book, renowned scholar Bobo
Dr. Thomas Gomart, Director of the French Institute of International Relations
t
(IFRI), Paris Lo analyzes the broader context of the crisis by examin-
h
ing the interplay between Russian foreign policy and
“ B obo Lo offers a trenchant analysis of the challenges and choices that confront Russia in e
today’s rapidly changing global environment. He asks whether Russia is capable of jet- an increasingly anarchic international environment. He
n
tisoning its imperial mindset and becoming a modern nation-state capable of interacting
argues that Moscow’s approach to regional and global
e
more effectively both with its neighbors and with the wider world. His answer is sober-
ing—and sometimes surprising.” w affairs reflects the tension between two very different
BOBO LO is an associate fellow with the Russia and Angela Stent, Director, Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies worlds—the perceptual and the actual.
w
(CERES), Georgetown University, and author of The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-
Eurasia Programme at Chatham House (U.K.), and
Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century. O
an associate research fellow with the Russia and New R The Kremlin highlights the decline of the West, a resur-
“ B obo Lo’s new book is elegantly written and has a masterful grasp of the pressures and
Independent States Center at the French Institute of L gent Russia, and the emergence of a new multipolar
temptations that have acted on Putin in foreign and security policy. He puts us all in
d
International Relations. He was previously director his debt.” order. But this idealized view is contradicted by a world

Robert Service, Fellow of the British Academy, and Emeritus Fellow, St. Antony’s d
of the China and Russia programs at the Centre for disorder that challenges core assumptions about the
College, University of Oxford i
European Reform, London; head of the Russia and s dominance of great powers and the utility of military
O
Eurasia Programme at Chatham House; and deputy head might. Its lesson is that only those states that embrace
R
PRaise fOR BOBO LO’s PReviOus wORk
of mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. He is change will prosper in the twenty-first century. A Russia
d
Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics is “the best
the author of Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the analysis yet of one of the world’s most important bilateral relationships.” e able to redefine itself as a modern power would exert a
R
New Geopolitics (Brookings/Chatham House, 2008). Stephen Kotkin in Foreign Affairs critical influence in many areas of international politics.
But a Russia that rests on an outdated sense of entitle-
CHATHAM HOUSE (Royal Institute of International Affairs) ment may end up instead as one of the principal casual-
HC B
London OH r
UA O ties of global transformation.
www.chathamhouse.org ST O
EH K
A i BOBO LO
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS M n
g
Washington, D.C.
S
www.brookings.edu/press
Cover by Sese/Paul Design
BP_BoboLo_Jacket_Mech.indd 1 6/23/15 2:45 PM
00-2609-8-FM.qxp_Bobo Lo 6/10/15 7:57 AM Page i
00-2609-8-FM.qxp_Bobo Lo 6/10/15 7:57 AM Page ii
00-2609-8-FM.qxp_Bobo Lo 6/10/15 7:57 AM Page iii
BOBO LO
chatham house
London
brookings institution press
Washington, D.C.
00-2609-8-FM.qxp_Bobo Lo 6/10/15 7:57 AM Page iv
Copyright © 2015
ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an independent body which
promotes the rigorous study of international questions and does not express opinions of its own.
The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author.
Chatham House, 10 St. James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE, www.chathamhouse.org.uk;
charity registration no 208223.
Russia and the New World Disordermay be ordered from:
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS
c/o HFS, P.O. Box 50370, Baltimore, MD 21211-4370
Tel.: [phone]; Fax: [phone]
www.brookings.edu
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or
by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging–in-Publication data
Lo, Bobo, 1959–
Russia and the new world order / Bobo Lo. — 1st [edition].
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: "Examines the interplay between Russian foreign policy and a complex global envi-
ronment, contrasting the Kremlin's view of a declining West and resurgent Russia with the world
Moscow actually faces, which is defined by a new disorder that challenges core Russian assump-
tions and puts a premium on adaptability"—Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-0-8157-2556-5 (hardcover : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-0-8157-2609-8 (pbk. : alk.
paper)—ISBN 978-0-8157-2557-2 (ebook : alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Foreign rela-
tions. 2. World politics—21st century. I. Title.
JZ1616.A5L62 2015
327.47—dc23 2015011246
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the American National
Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials:
ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Typeset in Minion and Univers Condensed
Composition by Oakland Street Publishing
Arlington, Virginia
Printed by R. R. Donnelley
Harrisonburg, Virginia
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To the one true politician in our family
the incomparable and beloved
Siriol
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00-2609-8-FM.qxp_Bobo Lo 6/10/15 7:57 AM Page vii
Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Abbreviations and Acronyms xi
Prologue xv
Part I: Context
1
The Domestic Context of Russian Foreign Policy 3
2
Two Worlds 38
Part II: Performance
3
Russia and Global Governance 71
4
A Postmodern Empire 100
5
A Turn to the East 132
6
Engaging with the West 165
vii
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viii Contents
Part III: Possibilities
7
A New Foreign Policy for a New Russia 203
8
Russia and the World in 2030 230
Notes 245
Index 319