Ruling Russia Ruling Russia AuthoritAriAnism from the revolution to Putin William Zimmerman P r i n c e t o n un i v e r s i t y P r e s s P r i n c e t o n An d ox f o r d Copyright © 2014 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW press.princeton.edu Jacket art: clockwise from top left: Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, ca. 1920, (Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division); Mikhail Gorbachev in Aberdeen, on the occasion of receiving the Freedom of the City award, © Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert/Alamy; Joseph Stalin, (Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division); Vladimir Putin, Bratislava, Slovakia, 2005, © Northfoto, courtesy of Shutterstock; Russian flag background © Cattallina/Shutterstock. All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zimmerman, William, 1936– Ruling Russia : authoritarianism from the revolution to Putin / William Zimmerman. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-16148-8 (hardback) 1. Authoritarianism—Soviet Union. 2. Authoritarianism—Russia (Federation) 3. Democratization—Russia (Federation) 4. Soviet Union—Politics and government. 5. Russia (Federation)—Politics and government—1991– I. Title. JN6531.Z56 2014 320.947—dc23 2013048288 British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Palatino Linotype Printed on acid- free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents Acknowledgments vii Introduction 1 ChAPter One From Democratic Centralism to Democratic Centralism 14 ChAPter Two Alternative Mobilization Strategies, 1917–1 934 43 ChAPter Three From Narrow Selectorate to Autocracy 75 ChAPter Four The Great Purge 102 ChAPter Five From Totalitarianism to Welfare Authoritarianism 130 ChAPter Six Uncertainty and “Democratization”: The Evolution of Post- Brezhnevian Politics, 1982–1 991 164 ChAPter Seven Democratizing Russia, 1991– 1997 196 ChAPter Eight The Demise of Schumpeterian Democracy, the Return to Certainty, and Normal (“Full”) Authoritarianism, 1998– 2008 220 ChAPter Nine The Return of Uncertainty? The 2011–2 012 Electoral Cycle 267 ChAPter Ten The Past and Future of Russian Authoritarianism 291 Selected Bibliography 311 Index 323 Acknowledgments It took me some while to write this book. In the process I incurred a number of debts. I and three former graduate students— Valerie Bunce, Olesya Tkacheva, and David Rivera— conducted a workshop during which we discussed a draft of the first two-t hirds of my book. I re- peated the experience via videoconferencing with Russian colleagues— Vladimir Gelman, Eduard Ponarin, Yegor Lazarev, and Kirill Kalinin. All provided valuable oral and written comments on my work at the stage I was in and provided me with useful suggestions about the directions I should take in completing the manuscript. It would not have been possible for me to conduct the two book conferences were it not for the financial support and vote of confidence I received from Teresa Sullivan, who was provost of the university when this project was launched, and the willingness of Vice Provost Lori Pierce to bear with my turgid pace after Professor Sullivan had departed Ann Arbor to become president of the University of Virginia at Charlottesville. Rivera, Kalinin (currently an advanced graduate student at Michi- gan), and Tkacheva rendered further assistance in this project—R ivera by providing me with detailed criticisms of every chapter, Kalinin by preparing the figures in Chapters 8 and 9, and Tkacheva by helping me with some transliteration issues. Kelly Grossmann provided valu- able assistance in preparing the Selected Bibliography. In addition Kira Youdina exemplified the utility for students and faculty of the university’s Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program by chas- ing down fugitive sources and comparing Russian and English versions of key utterances by various early Bolsheviks. Special words of thanks go to George Breslauer and Patrick Shields, both of whom made valuable comments on versions of the manuscript. As George has done on multiple occasions and in multiple roles in the course of half a century of friendship, he challenged me to sharpen my thinking about the book. Patrick had good ideas about the ways the manuscript could be improved and kept after me to finish the manu- script. An anonymous reviewer made useful substantive suggestions and also called my attention to ways the manuscript might be made more accessible to upper- division undergraduates. Earlier versions of parts of some chapters have appeared previously. My comments about Marshal Sokolovsky first appeared as a review essay in the Journal of Conflict Resolution. My analysis of Russian citizen viii • Acknowledgments assessments of the strengths and attitudes of Russian leaders draws from an earlier Princeton University Press book (The Russian People and Foreign Policy, 2002). Undertaking empirically those questions would not have been possible had I not participated in a 1995– 96 wave of mass surveys of which Timothy Colton was the principal investigator and if he had not shared data from subsequent surveys. My first effort to show systematically the trend away from mobilized participation and its consequences for the nature of the Soviet system came as a result of my participation in the Soviet Interview Project and appeared in James Millar, ed., Politics, Work, and Daily Life in the USSR (© Cambridge Uni- versity Press, 1987). The section in which I report our ability to esti- mate changes in Soviet military spending first appeared as an article (coauthored with Glenn Palmer) in the American Political Science Review (© Cambridge University Press). My wife, Susan McClanahan, supported me in multiple ways, most notably by graciously and in good humor accepting the fact that I have done in retirement what I did when I was drawing a salary from the University of Michigan. This book would not have been possible without the advice, re- search, and friendship of my former students over the years. For that reason, I take particular pleasure in dedicating this book to them. Bill Zimmerman center for PoliticAl studies And dePArtment of PoliticAl science university of michigAn Ann Arbor Ruling Russia