Roy Jenkins

64 Pages·2014·40.53 MB·English

How Britain can get better at maths p64
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www.prospectmagazine.co.uk MAY 2014 | £4.95
The world’s top
thinkers
Plus
T
H
E
W The end of poverty
O
R
L
D
’S AMARTYA SEN
T
O
P Roy Jenkins: the verdict
T
H
IN
K PETER MANDELSON
E
R
S
Free the English
IRVINE WELSH
The trouble with
Magna Carta
LINDA COLLEY
Inside a Brixton
gang
EDWARD DOCX
Down with
Updike?
SAM TANENHAUS
Also
Adair Turner, Eimear
McBride, Chris Bryant,
AC Grayling, Dieter Helm,
P Christine Ockrent
Cover.indd 1 17/04/2014 10:56
PROSPECT MAY 2014 5
Foreword
World thinkers
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Deputy Editor Jay Elwes It’s striking that those who have come top of Prospect’s poll to
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pick the World Thinker of 2014 have devoted their lives to
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Creative Director David Killen questions of development. We don’t, I should say at the start,
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That said, India is an excellent berth for thinkers who have the intellectual
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David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC breadth and authority to take on the world’s problems. A highly verbal country,
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it has always put words well to its problems—and it has many of those; it has
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while failing to overcome historic, deeply embedded cruelty in relations between
Hephzibah Anderson, Philip Ball, Nick
Carn, Tom Chatfi eld, James Crabtree, diff erent parts of its society. Sen, in his cover story for us (p24), asks why we tolerate
Andy Davis, Edward Docx, Ian Irvine, Sam
Knight, Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Wendell poverty, and rightly dwells on his own country, but arguably makes too little of
Steavenson, James Woodall
the consequences of the caste system. Or of religious diff erences—as the election
Contributing Editors
Anjana Ahuja, Anna Blundy, David campaign and the likely victory of the divisive Narendra Modi is showing.
Edmonds, Helen Gao, Josef Joff e, Anatole
Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, What counts as a world thinker? Rodin’s image is unhelpful; it suggests someone
Elizabeth Pisani
observing from the wings of the world stage even in extravagantly interesting times.
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emerging economies, other entries—and much of this issue of Prospect—show that
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Editorial.indd 5 17/04/2014 14:49
PROSPECT MAY 2014 7
Contents
May 2014
This month Features Arts & books
08 If I ruled the world 24 Why we tolerate poverty 66 He could not help himself
IRVINE WELSH AMARTYA SEN John Updike should be fashionable.
10 Recommends SAM TANENHAUS
12 Letters
Opinions
14 How European are the British?
PETER KELLNER
15 Birmingham could go bust
GISELA STUART
15 The French Tony Blair 36 Walking with Karl 69 Roy Jenkins, then and now
CHRISTINE OCKRENT An ex-gang member revisits his past. How would he have judged New Labour?
16 Letter from Beijing EDWARD DOCX PETER MANDELSON
HELEN GAO 72 Love thyself
plus STEPHEN COLLINS’S cartoon strip. Self-obsession is now socially acceptable.
18 Freedom to make bad choices HANNAH DAWSON
AC GRAYLING 73 Nothing happens to the cows
19 Blocking the fl ash boys The strange writings of Lydia Davis.
ADAIR TURNER ADAM KIRSCH
20 What if... France had not sold 76 Books in brief
Louisiana?
FRANK COGLIANO
Fiction
78 Ivy Day in the Committee Room
The Prospect duel 44 Breaking the bear hug
EIMEAR MCBRIDE
Ending Russia’s grip on gas.
22 Should schools still teach French? DIETER HELM
CHRIS BRYANT VS JOHN MCWHORTER
Life
50 Time for a UK constitution
Do we now need one to survive? 82 Leith on life SAM LEITH
World thinkers 2014 LINDA COLLEY
82 Life of the mind ANNA BLUNDY
32 The results of Prospect’s poll 54 All the world’s an app 83 Matters of taste WENDELL STEAVENSON
The internet is changing our minds. 84 Wine BARRY SMITH
JACOB MIKANOWSKI
84 DIY investor ANDY DAVIS
Special report: tech & growth
59 The future is already working Prospect events
New technology is driving growth.
JIM O’NEILL 85 Join us at talks, debates, festivals
plus NIGEL WALTON, DAVE BIRCH
Endgames
Science
87 Enigmas & puzzles BARRY R CLARKE
64 Why are the British bad at maths? 87 The generalist DIDYMUS
The English language doesn’t help. 88 The way we were
DAVID TALL European statesmen. IAN IRVINE
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Contents.indd 7 17/04/2014 14:18
8 PROSPECT MAY 2014
If I ruled the world
Irvine Welsh
Put women in charge and grant England independence
The first thing I would do as ruler would be to set up an all- Hollywood star was and didn’t give a fuck about her. It was a
female government. Aside from myself there would be no men brilliant illustration of how things should be.
in power at all. The patriarchy has failed miserably, and it’s Linguistically, I’ve already made an impact on the world. I
time for a fresh approach. There has always been the odd noticed that “cunt” and “cuntish” recently made it into the Oxford
woman who assumes masculine characteristics in order to suc- English Dictionary, which I feel I must take some responsibility
ceed, such as Margaret Thatcher, but it would be a very differ- for. I think language is a living thing, it’s fluid and societies con-
ent situation if we filled all positions of power with women—the stantly evolve different words, but it’s weird when people in Britain
key benefit being a global shift away from war and empire start spouting a second-hand version of American street slang.
building, towards creating better opportunities for the next “Smashed it,” which has become business speak, derives
generation of citizens. from “smashed it out the park,” which is a baseball term.
Any hierarchical hereditary principles of government People misuse it because they fail to understand its cul-
would be also abolished—it negates democracy. If you create tural origins.
an elite you are saying that not everyone can achieve their I would grant Scotland independence, and England
ultimate goals. I would abolish the monarchy and the House and Wales, too. The UK state hasn’t delivered, economi-
of Lords—they are anachronistic, irrelevant and their exist- cally or socially, what the people of Scotland need. Nor, I
ence sends a message that elitism is engrained in our soci- think, has it delivered what the people of England need.
ety and culture. England had a mission to be an inclusive multicul-
Since I would be a ceremonial head of state, I tural nation and this old-fashioned imperialist
could happily retreat to a small tropical island UK has stopped it from fulfilling its political
and get on with my writing and enjoying my destiny, as much as it has stopped Scotland
life. I would have effectively opted out of soci- from fulfilling its, by becoming a more social
ety but would speak to my advisors by confer- democratic state. The problem with the UK is
ence call once a week to check everything was that there are too many elites grandfathered
ticking over and that the constitution, which into the system. If you get rid of all that
I would have drawn up beforehand, was clutter you can create a stronger democ-
being followed. racy where the people who are doing use-
When I was first considering world dom- ful things in society are the ones getting
ination it crossed my mind to include a rewarded for it. That would be a much
clause in the constitution stating that all healthier model of government.
books other than mine should be burnt. But I would still try to foster a more
But, this power thing is a bit strange—I inclusive sense of Britishness. Getting rid
wouldn’t really want to control people’s of a political entity could improve relations
reading habits. Hopefully my new govern- between Scotland and its neighbours. Peo-
ment would devise a more effective edu- ple might be more willing to embrace the
cation system which would result in the concept of “Britishness” if it wasn’t pre-
creation of more works of quality rather than sented as a political expression of the UK
the escapist fluff that you see everywhere. as a state but rather as a group of regions with
The way we put our arts and culture right different but complimentary cultures.
is to take pride in what we do instead of trying The legalisation of all drugs would also be on
to be the 51st state of America. It’s ridiculous to my agenda. Celebration and festival are integral
claim that films such as Gravity are British. It parts of our culture, and are fuelled by intoxica-
makes us look pathetic and needy, when our own tion. Even in Islam you have whirling dervishes
independent films would do just as well if they who are effectively trying to get off their head by
got more exposure. At the Cannes film festival spinning round; that desire to alter consciousness
a few years ago I was standing in a hotel lobby is implicit in every culture, and taking intoxicants is
REXwith this beautiful Hollywood actress. A cam- just another manifestation of it. There is a certain
RY/era crew came rushing towards her and she pat- elegance in accepting that anything goes.
U
MBted her hair to make sure it was in place. They Irvine Welsh is the author of “Trainspotting.”
D CHAwalked right past her and started filming this His latest novel is “The Sex Lives of Siamese
R
HAwee fat guy who apparently is a massive star Twins” (Jonathan Cape)
© RICin France. The crew didn’t know who this As told to Serena Kutchinsky
Ruled.indd 8 17/04/2014 12:43
10 PROSPECT MAY 2014
Prospect recommends
Five things to do this month
polling station to vote, while distin-
Art
guished women (an artist, a gradu-
ate, a mayoress) wait outside, their
Kenneth Clark: Looking for clothes picked out in the recognis-
Civilisation able WSPU colours of purple and
Tate Britain, from 20th May green. This resonates with the vio-
With the BBC planning to remake lent bright green of a later feminist
Civilisation, Tate Britain’s timing poster. Entitled “Protest,” it was
could not be better for this celebra- made in 1974 in the See Red Wom-
tion of Kenneth Clark, the creator en’s Workshop, an organisation
of that groundbreaking 1969 docu- that promoted poster-making as a
mentary series. Perhaps the single form of empowerment. The exhi-
most influential figure in the visual bition is brought up to date with
arts in Britain in the middle of the “digital posters” from Ukraine,
20th century, Clark, born in 1903, poster-like images that spread on
did everything possible to pro- the internet during the protests in
mote the art he admired. He was Kiev. The curators even used social
an eclectic, opportunistic but dis- media to gather some of their
cerning collector, as this exhibition “It begins with a bang”: Jia Zhangke’s film A Touch of Sin material, sourcing images of plac-
shows, gathering art from Ancient ards through Twitter.
Rome, Egypt and Tang Dynasty dom. His subject, in four lightly canvas extends far beyond the cli- Laura Marsh
China alongside masterpieces connected segments, is the cause chéd tropes of boho Paris, invest-
by Renoir and Degas; acquiring of the pervasive violence that sat- ing Puccini’s evergreen opera with
works by Bellini and other Renais- urates life in the rural China he a sense of immediacy. Above all, Theatre
sance artists but also paintings by depicts. The stories are based on it reveals the core of the work as
English landscape artists such as reported events; his protagonists a story about a new and quest- The Testament of Mary
Constable. are workers—in mines, assembly ing generation. Smaller in scale Barbican, 1st to 25th May
Clark was a generous and influ- lines or massage parlours—surviv- than Francesca Zambello’s recent Colm Tóibín’s Man Booker Prize-
ential patron, supporting artists ing in a world of extremes, getting Albert Hall 1940s-set production, shortlisted novella, just 81 pages
from the Bloomsbury Group, the by while others get rich quick. Lloyd’s Bohème has a stronger sense long, is a haunting meditation by
Euston Road School and, later, Though initially discouraged of youthful idealism that makes Mary, the mother of Christ, living
Henry Moore and Victor Pasmore. by his producer from this bleak cri- the tragedy all the more poignant. alone in Ephesus after the cruci-
As the youngest ever Director of tique of China’s commercialism, Sometimes an updated production fixion, steering clear of the Gospel
the National Gallery from 1934, or at least of the cold monopoly of a traditional classic comes along writers and the disciples whom she
however, he discovered his ulti- of the wealthy, Jia went on to win that is so perfect you wonder why describes as a group of misfits una-
mate vocation in public education, best screenplay at Cannes. Grace- nobody ever thought of it before. ble to look a woman in the eye.
a commitment deepened by the ful in execution, detailed (yet not Neil Norman Originally conceived as a dra-
horror of the Second World War. fussy) in setting and performance, matic monologue, the piece was
He said of the collapse of Roman provocative in its blend of styl- first performed in 2011, and then
civilisation: “It shows that how- ised action and realism, the film Exhibition expanded into the novella. Last
ever complex and solid it seems, engages while it unsettles. year, Barbican Associate Director
it is actually quite fragile. It can Francine Stock A World to Win: Posters of Protest Deborah Warner and actress Fiona
be destroyed.” It was this fear that and Revolution Shaw returned the work to its the-
drove his brilliance as a teacher, V&A Museum, from 1st May atrical origin, shaking up Broad-
as a founding member and Chair- Opera So much of the work done by the way with a staging that featured
man of the Arts Council and, ulti- V&A is in conservation, where “arts Shaw initially revealed in a large
mately, as a broadcaster. La Bohème and crafts” usually means William transparent cube surrounded by
Emma Crichton-Miller Opera North, touring from 29th April Morris wallpaper and Walter Crane votive candles. There was also a live
More than two decades has passed book design. This free exhibition vulture involved.
since Phyllida Lloyd unveiled her tells the story of a different sort of That production is further mod-
Film radical production of La Bohème arts and crafts, focusing on posters ified for the Barbican and promises
for Opera North. Swapping the tat- that urge social change and aim to to mark another signal chapter in
A Touch of Sin tered dresses and threadbare frock disrupt rather than conserve. The Shaw and Warner’s partnership,
On release from 16th May coats of the late 19th century for opening date—May Day—is sug- following their astonishing collab-
It begins with a bang: shots on a polo necks and jeans, it is set on the gestively provocative, and begins orations on TS Eliot’s The Waste
dusty road in Shanxi province, big cusp of the 1960s, complete with a season exploring the way protest Land and Coleridge’s The Rime of
guy on a motorbike gazing at red beret-wearing Left Bank intellec- shapes design. the Ancient Mariner. The Testament
fruit spilt by an overturned truck. tuals, visual references to Jackson Of the 70 or so posters on dis- presents Mary as a tragic hero-
We’re in a corrupt mining town, Pollock and Andy Warhol, and a play here, some have become cul- ine who goes from reluctant icon
watching a lone gunman with a palpable sense of Nouvelle Vague tural touchstones. A poster from to confused virgin to bereaved
righteous cause. It all seems to rebellion. While Anthony Ward’s the Suffrage Atelier—the print- mother, and Shaw’s raw stage pres-
presage a shoot-’em-up movie. But designs—including a slowly dis- ing workshop founded in support ence will be the ideal match for
the writer/director is Jia Zhangke integrating motorbike—display a of the Women’s Social and Politi- Tóibín’s rhythmic, muscular prose.
and the bloodshed is far from ran- cinematic flair, Lloyd’s visionary cal Union—shows men entering a Michael Coveney
Recommends.indd 10 17/04/2014 12:43
12 PROSPECT MAY 2014
Letters
The Blair myth with plenty of monitoring and as- are not interested in it or because In fact
sessment. But if they work in some they back the wrong growth driver.
I am sorry that Ferdinand Mount places, they could work here too. The last explanation is important
enjoyed my The Myth of the Strong Caroline Lucas, Green Party MP because it suggests leaders could
Leader less than I enjoyed his Cold matter in the future, even if we On average, British households have
Cream (“V for vendetta,” April). Since 1972, as a lawyer I have de- think they have not in the past. read fewer than half of the books
It seems to have riled him even fended drug users, and as a judge We should estimate the asso- they own.
more than Tony Blair’s A Journey (now retired) I have sentenced ciations between the dynamics of The Telegraph, 6th March 2014
irritated me. Blair crops up in my them. My experience is that the freedom and growth in order to
book quite o(cid:27) en because his con- present enforcement regime has test Easterly’s very plausible asser- UK membership of the professional
ception of party and government been a failure and there is no ra- tion that reducing repression leads clowns’ association, Clowns
leadership strikes me as fundamen- tional basis for thinking that it is to increase in growth. It is impor- International, has fallen to around
tally fl awed. It is what I am arguing likely to improve, even if we lock ev- tant to avoid replacing one myth 100, down from a peak of almost
against. Naturally, I agree that the erybody up. Make no mistake, drug (autocrats are good for growth) 1,000 in the 1980s.
Labour government Blair headed misuse (like alcohol abuse) is a seri- with another (leaders don’t matter The Daily Mail, 29th March 2014
did far more good than harm—oth- ous problem, but it should be dealt for growth).
erwise, I wouldn’t have voted for it.
with primarily as a health issue not Professor Lawrence Haddad, This year’s Forbes Billionaires list
But its major achievements, I ar-
a criminal justice one. Institute of Development Studies has a record number of women on
gue, were not primarily Blair’s.
Haydn Gott, via the website it—at 10 per cent of the list.
Much of what Mount says about
Mixed identities Forbes, 4th March 2014
the great variety of ways in which
Defenestrate Bill Gates?
eff ective leadership can be exer-
Anatol Lieven argues that Eu- The average Chinese soldier has
cised I agree with. Many of the ex-
Five years into the Obama admin- rope has little choice but do a deal grown too tall and wide to fi t into
amples he cites are to be found in
istration, progressives insist that with Putin (“Face-off in Ukraine,” the military’s tanks, which are now
my book. What is disappointing is
what they really want to do when April). Unfortunately, he’s right. being redesigned accordingly.
the extent to which he caricatures
they grow up is to reduce income The question now isn’t about pun- The Guardian, 18th February 2014
and misrepresents the book and my
inequality (“Super-rich century,” ishing Russia or condoning Putin’s
earlier writing on the Soviet Union.
April). Really? Why now? The le(cid:27) actions; it’s about accepting the Three countries—Indonesia, Kuwait
Anyone interested in seeing these
spent 50 years telling us the prob- new geopolitical reality and the and Nigeria—that had not carried
points spelled out should look at
lem was poverty and they knew existential risk it holds. Russia ar- out executions for at least four years
my longer response on the Prospect
how to fi x it. They forcibly took tril- gues that it is merely protecting resumed them in 2013.
website—or, better still, read the
lions of dollars in tax from working its sphere of interests, just as any The Guardian, 27th March 2014
book which is rather more nuanced
Americans to fi x this. Best not to fo- western country would do. But by
than your reviewer suggests.
cus on how that worked out. Obama crossing the border it is expanding Mark Zuckerberg’s personal wealth
Archie Brown, author of “The Myth has spent fi ve years explaining that its unique system of values—one increased by $13.3bn between
of the Strong Leader” stimulus spending would create real that, currently, gets along based on March 2013 and March 2014.
jobs and give us a recovery stronger a patrimonial system rather than Digital Trends, 4th March 2014
A failed war on drugs than the Reagan one. Not an asser- on rule of law. For better or worse,
tion that survives examination. that is the new multipolar reality. Fewer Welsh words have been
The duel between Molly Meacher Luckily, the state can easily Anna Arutunyan, author of “The absorbed into the English language
and Peter Hitchens (“Should the reduce inequality, though without Putin Mystique” than Hawaiian ones, according to
UK legalise drugs?” April) dem- making any single person’s life bet- the Deputy Editor of the OED.
onstrated that when dealing with ter. Defenestrate Bill Gates. The I was amazed to read in Anatol Wales Online, 3rd March 2014
highly emotive topics it is impor- metric improves. Destroy wealth, Lieven’s article that “most of the
tant to focus on the evidence. That so that what remains is more central European states are at least As of 2013, there were only
must start with a fresh look at the evenly distributed. Heck, even the ethnically homogenous with united four escalators in the US state of
Misuse of Drugs Act, which is now North Koreans and the Middle national identities.” He is ignoring Wyoming.
more than 40 years old. There has Ages were able to accomplish that. all the Hungarians who, as a result The Atlantic, 17th July 2013
never been a cost-benefi t assess- Grover Norquist, President of of the Treaty of Trianon, became
ment, or any attempt to compare Americans for Tax Reform citizens of other states such as Slo-
its eff ectiveness in reducing the vakia and Romania .
costs of drug misuse with alterna- Freedom to grow Mike Walsh
tives. We therefore have no idea
whether current drug policy is an William Easterly claims that “the Beautiful ruins
eff ective use of public money. most persistent myth in economic
Recently Uruguay, Portu- development” is that “autocratic Wonderful piece by Evelyn Toyn-
gal, Switzerland and the US governments create growth mira- ton (“Desolation row,” April), es-
state of Colorado have trialled a cles” (“Dictator worship,” April). pecially her thoughts about photos
new approach that decriminal- He fi nds that changing leaders is of Detroit and the impulse to “aes-
ises drug use. So far this has re- barely associated with changes in theticise catastrophe,” which is so
sulted in a reduced number of growth. Now, this result could hold much of what the artist or writer
addicts and reduced crime . Why because leaders don’t try to change o(cid:27) en does.
shouldn’t we learn from them? anything; or they try but fail; or the Elizabeth Benedict, via the website
“Man up and take responsibility
Changes to drug policy should be things they do change don’t matter
for my mistakes!”
brought in slowly and carefully, for growth—either because they [email protected]
Letters.indd 12 17/04/2014 12:42
14 PROSPECT MAY 2014
Opinions
Peter Kellner
Bring me sunshine
How European are the British?
We know that Britain’s electorate is divided we do better than other EU countries: our them would vote narrowly for withdrawal.
on the European Union, and that Ukip has democracy and the standard of our policing. The strongest pro-European groups are
tapped into a rich vein of EU-phobia. But One striking finding is that relatively few Scottish voters, Londoners, the middle classes
what about Europe in a broader context— people align their views on the EU to their and those under 30—along with Labour and
its people, geography, nations and civic life? views on “Europe.” For example, opponents Liberal Democrat supporters. Opponents
Are we as wary of them as we are of the phe- of British membership of the EU are just as tend to be older and more working class as
nomenon that signifies so much more than likely as supporters to say they would like to well as Conservatives or, overwhelmingly,
the capital of Belgium: “Brussels”? live on the continent. And there is little dif- Ukip supporters—the only surprise there is
The short answer is no. A YouGov survey ference between the two sides as to which that 4 per cent of Ukip supporters say they
for Prospect in the lead up to the European European country has the highest living would vote to stay in the EU).
Parliament elections finds that most of us standards, best public services, finest democ- One intriguing discovery is that Ukip sup-
would prefer to live on the European main- racy, best police or friendliest people. porters are less likely than voters generally to
land if we were sure our living standards So what does distinguish “in” voters from say that Britain has the best public services,
would not fall. One reason is that most of us “out” voters? Our survey finds that those who finest democracy and friendliest people—
have doubts about our own country. Few of us would vote to remain in the EU are more while non-Ukip opponents of EU member-
think we can claim the best public services, likely to have close friends or relatives liv- ship tend to give Britain higher marks than
friendliest people or—and for many, this is ing in Europe. Those with these connections the average on all these points.
the clincher—the best weather. These things would vote by almost two-to-one in favour of Our results confirm other YouGov
matter more to us than the things we reckon continued EU membership. Those without research which suggests that Ukip’s main
If there were a referendum on EU Which languages do you speak? % Which European Union country has ...? %
membership, how would you vote? % The highest standard The best quality public
42 Stay in No other 72 of living services
All 37 Leave French 14 33
26
18-29 59 German 6 24 23 18 18
year3-0o-ld39s 15 42 Other EuSrpoapneiasnh 55 10 9 8 14 5 4 4 4
year-olds 33 Other
year4-0o-ld59s 3491 Non-EurIotapleiaann 24 No ideaGermaSnwyedenOtherUKDenmark No ideaUKGermanSywedenDenmaOrktherNetherFlarnandcse
60+ 39 Close friends or relatives living in… The most democratic The friendliest people
48 Mainland Europe 29 political system
Lib Dem 71 Australia, Canada
27
supporters 17 or New Zealand 42 31 30
Labour 59 United States 25 20 17
supporters 24 Ireland 15 10 14
Conservative 35 Elsewhere 15 7 6 4 7 4 4 4
supporters
47
suppoUrtKeIrPs 4 90 AfroiIcnrad B,i aCa,naPgrailbkaibdseetaasnnh 47 No ideaUKOtherGermanSywedeDnenmark No ideaIrelandUKOtherNetherSlawneddsenGreeceSpain
Which European Union country would you choose to live in, assuming you could maintain your standard of living?
Which European Union country would you choose to live in, assuming you could maintain your standard of living?
British Isles Total British Isles Total elsewhere in EU
18 to 24-y3r0-olds 2918 to 24-yr-olds 29 32% 18 to 24-yr-olds 25 to 39 40 to 59 60+ 18 to 24-yr-olds 56
25 to 39 3225 to 39 32 13% 25 to 39 58
40 2to2 5290 4304 to 59 34 40 to 59 55
1680+ 60+39 39 15 60+ 50
E1285ls tteoow 2349h-eyrre-o lidn6s th5e 6EU5 3 3 4 2 2 2565382 0 0 1 0 11 5 7 7 9 128%13 8 7 67%3 6 9 86%7 6 7 54%3 5 5 45%3 4 142%2 2 2 23%3 1 32%3 6
40 to 59 55
England Scotland Wales Rep. Ireland N Ireland France Spain Sweden Italy Germany Netherlands Denmark Greece Cyprus
60+ 50 Great Britain Spain Italy France Sweden Germany Netherlands Cyprus Greece Denmark
Opinions.indd 14 17/04/2014 12:52
PROSPECT MAY 2014 OPINIONS 15
appeal is not driven by the EU as such, but lar destination for our hypothetical exodus is many—are ones where few of us wish to live.
by a fear that Britain has gone off the rails. Spain—a country that hardly any of us rate In short, the attraction of life across the
Hence the fact that 57 per cent of Ukip sup- for its economic strength, public services, Channel has little to do with the kinds of
porters would prefer to migrate to mainland police, political system or friendliness. Yet things that politicians everywhere fret so
Europe if they could. the countries we rate highly for living stand- much about. Sunshine trumps all.
Then there’s the climate. The most popu- ards and public services—Sweden and Ger- Peter Kellner is President of YouGov
Interview: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham could go bust
The city needs to make savings of £300,000 a day
Gisela Stuart, the Labour MP for Birming- Its budgetary problems have forced Bir- level, she says. But the government took
ham Edgbaston, says that there is a “danger mingham into the “enormously painful deci- office and “abolished them and put in place
that [the city] is on the brink of insolvency.” sion” to sell off assets, including the National local enterprise partnerships,” which Stu-
Birmingham council has to plug a funding Exhibition Group of iconic venues. art says are too small, and cannot control the
gap of £822m and time is short. “If you look Stuart argues that the present council complex array of payments that flow into cit-
at the figures that Albert Bore [the leader of leadership is strong. The job is a complex and ies from central government.
Birmingham Council] has done, the crunch at times unpopular one that requires the bro- “The perfect storm for cities like Birming-
year is 2016/17,” says Stuart. kering of a city-wide consensus. The council ham is at every level,” says Stuart. The coa-
“The kind of savings which, on the cur- leader “is doing his best to have an open and lition government “thinks that cities reflect
rent trajectory, the city would have to make honest debate with the electorate,” she says. the national economy. That’s not true. Cities
are utterly unrealistic. We would have to save Even before the 2008 crisis, Birmingham are the engine of the national economy. And
£300,000 a day,” she says. Retrenchment on Council was facing a financial threat, as a if cities don’t thrive then the areas around
this scale would involve cutting deeply into group of former female employees launched them wont thrive.”
the core services provided by the council. legal proceedings claiming that they had In 2013, the Prime Minister commis-
The coalition government has taken been paid less than their male colleagues. sioned Michael Heseltine, the Conservative
aim at local government budgets. George “The city didn’t face up to that problem at the peer, to examine the problem of Birming-
Osborne has introduced cuts that, between time,” says Stuart, “and rather than paying ham. This resulted in the report, presented
2011 and 2015, will reduce funding for coun- the dinner ladies the rates they should have a year ago, “The Greater Birmingham Pro-
cils by 28 per cent. In 2015-16, there will be been paid, it kept going through legal judge- ject: The Path to Local Growth,” in which
a further 10 per cent squeeze. In the case of ments combined with no-win no-fee lawyers. he proposed a plan for drawing the great-
Birmingham, Britain’s second largest city, It means the city’s got a bill of up to £1bn.” est economic benefit from the “extraordi-
the consequences of this tightening are stark, Demography also poses long-term prob- nary opportunities and latent strengths,”
and exacerbate pre-existing weaknesses. lems. Health spending, notes Stuart, “is of Birmingham and the surrounding area.
Birmingham faces some particularly skewed to the over-60s... So if you’ve got an His proposals recommended the devolution
tough challenges. It’s a large city of around ageing population, you get higher funding. If of further power to the local level, especially
one million people, and as Stuart says, it is you’ve got, like we have, a disproportionately concerning oversight of spending powers.
“the fastest growing city in Europe,” with 40 young population, you keep losing out.” “Heseltine [suggests] regional strategic
per cent of the population under the age of Stuart thinks that these problems have mayors [and] greater devolution of powers,”
25. The majority of the population growth been compounded by the current govern- says Stuart, “and he’s right.” There are some
has come in areas with the highest systemic ment’s insufficient embrace of regionalism. in the government who are receptive to Hes-
unemployment rates. “Hodge Hill and Lady- The regional development agencies set up eltine’s views, she says. “Greg Clark, the cities
wood, as constituencies, are always among under Labour to promote economic regen- minister, does understand the nature of the
the top three in the unemployment figures in eration across the country gave a “structural problem—but he’s one voice among many.”
the country,” says Stuart. overview of investments” made at a local Interview by Jay Elwes, Deputy Editor of Prospect
Christine Ockrent
The French Tony Blair
Can a new Prime Minister save François Hollande?
François Hollande is a remarkable tacti- has irritated taxpayers, discouraged busi- Hollande was bruised by the local elec-
cian. A master at surfing the currents of ness, disappointed socialist traditionalists tions in March, which delivered a stinging
the Socialist Party, he has covered up cold- and done little to improve the dire condition defeat for his party, a victory for the con-
blooded manoeuvering with well-told jokes. of the economy and national psyche. No one servatives, a breakthrough for Marine Le
But such skills are no replacement for has deciphered what his long-term policies Pen’s far right and, even more worrying, an
strategy. Too cautious to take straightfor- might be, short of waiting for a better eco- unprecedented abstention rate. Hollande’s
ward decisions, Hollande has trapped him- nomic cycle. After almost two years in office, loyal and tepid Prime Minister, Jean-Marc
self in a mess of unfulfilled promises, verbal Hollande is the most unpopular president in Ayrault, was ousted.
incantations and half-baked reforms. This the history of the Fifth Republic. After much hesitation, the President
Opinions.indd 15 17/04/2014 12:52
16 OPINIONS PROSPECT MAY 2014
made the bold, inescapable choice to replace praised by all those, conservatives included, Two days later, he had made sure his new
him with the best-rated of his cabinet minis- who now hope for clear government strategy Prime Minister was under tight control. True
ters: Manuel Valls, Minister of the Interior— and for consistency to the so-called “pacte de to his usual balancing act, he retained most
a long time mayor of a difficult Paris “ban- responsabilité”—a trade-off for business to of the key figures of the Socialist Party, who
lieue,” young by French political standards pay less taxes and create more jobs. do not necessarily agree with each other,
(at 51), energetic and very good at spinning. In January, in what was hailed as a true nor with the Prime Minister—starting with
This is unprecedented in French politics: social-democrat coming out, Hollande made Segolène Royal, his former companion and
a weak President flanked by a popular, vig- a series of announcements promoting entre- mother of their four children. The finance
orous Prime Minister who has never hidden preneurship and supply-side policies. Three and the economy portfolios have been split
his ambition for the top job. Valls is a self- months later, they are still to be imple- between Michel Sapin, a lacklustre techno-
avowed social liberal. At least, he was back mented. Scrutinised by Brussels, tough crat who will have to negotiate in Brussels
in 2011, when he competed for the party pri- reforms have to be undertaken: by 2017, with the very people Arnaud Montebourg,
maries, decrying the 35-hour week, the over- €50bn of cuts in public spending; renewed his volatile counterpart, keeps insulting.
weight welfare state and the very name of efforts to bring down the national debt; In his first TV interview, Valls used the
the Socialist Party which he wanted to mod- and more efficient fiscal policies to stimu- same vocabulary as his predecessor, taking up
ernise. Although labelled as the French Tony late growth and fight rising unemployment, the customary socialist stance on preserving
Blair, he scored poorly and joined Hollande’s which stood at 10.4 per cent in February. the welfare system and keeping globalisation
winning team, forging with him what has Will Valls be given a loose rein—to pick at bay. “We are all Hollandais!” he exclaimed,
been described as a loyal relationship. his own team and his own words—in order insisting on his loyalty to the President.
His nomination as Prime Minister angered to implement this gruelling set of reforms? There may now be two master tacticians
socialist leftists, as well as the Greens, who “France needs a fighting government!” Hol- at the helm of the country. The problem
refused to join his government, weaken- lande declared on television, justifying the remains that they have no coherent strategy.
ing his majority in parliament. But it was reshuffle and the shrinking of the cabinet. Christine Ockrent is the former Editor of L’Express
Helen Gao
Letter from Beijing
Torn between China and the west
One night in late March, I opened my Face- ing passengers and their relatives, who were farms and factories. With their sunburned
book newsfeed to find a string of posts on anxiously waiting for news: necks and ill-fitting suits, they wandered,
Flight MH370, the Malaysia Airlines plane “Many of the passengers were among lost and exhausted, around the hotel’s
that disappeared en route to Beijing on 8th China’s new middle class and relatively new grand ballroom, which has been turned into
March. Circulating among many of my Chi- to the wonders of air travel to foreign lands,” a Malaysia Airlines command center… For
nese friends was a paragraph from a recent the paragraph read. “Some of their relatives weatherbeaten farmers and urban sophisti-
issue of Time magazine, describing the miss- are only a half-step removed from China’s cate alike, it is hard to make sense of the
Opinions.indd 16 17/04/2014 15:27
18 OPINIONS PROSPECT MAY 2014
disappearance of MH370.” instead of a western one? Would Time ever reacted, and I tried to work out how I felt.
I studied these sentences again. I describe Americans in similar fashion? If it Was my anger justified, or was it a symptom
recalled the images of the relatives, ban- did, would my American peers speak up? of nationalism? I felt as if I were staring into
ners in hand, demanding information My head spun as I considered these ques- a hall of mirrors, scrutinising my reflections
about their loved ones, or, bleary-eyed and tions. The harder I tried to reach for a clear from all directions, while restlessly glancing
resigned, sitting in the corners of hotel lob- answer, the deeper I sank. Maybe I was just over my shoulder, conscious of how others
bies. Two days earlier, they had received a overanalysing the situation? Although I felt would judge me.
text message from the airline, announcing confused, it was a familiar quandry—a kind In the end, after mulling over the Time
that the plane had crashed and there were I have faced repeatedly as I’ve immersed paragraph for half an hour, I closed my
no survivors. myself in western discourse on China. Facebook page and opened Twitter. “Chi-
Below the paragraph was a stream of In the US, where I studied for seven nese students on Facebook pouring anger
angry comments from Chinese web users. years, the Chinese are often presented in the over this paragraph on Time magazine about
“Those people are not ‘sunburned necks’, media as an angry mob, protesting against the families of MH370 victims,” I wrote next
not ‘ill-fitting suits’,” one read. “They are perceived slights from foreign countries. to a link to the paragraph, cautiously side-
parents who lost children, wives who lost The anti-French boycott in 2008 over the stepping any first person pronouns.
husbands, grandparents who lost grandchil- disruption of the Olympic torch relay, and The next morning, I opened Twitter with
dren, brothers who lost sisters.” Thank you, the anti-Japanese protests in 2012 over ter- a tickle in my stomach. The message had
I thought. I found myself mumbling these ritorial disputes in the East China Sea, both been retweeted nearly 100 times, mostly by
words aloud, while moving the cursor to the made international headlines. While cov- non-Chinese web users. “Is that even nec-
“share” button next to the post. ering these events for western publications essary, @TIME?” one asked. Another, a
But my finger halted. A thought flashed has pushed me to examine Chinese nation- Beijing-based correspondent for a western
through my mind: what would my Ameri- alism with more detachment, it has also media outlet, gave the offended Chinese
can friends think, seeing me take offence alienated me from my own feelings. students a supportive nod. “Rightly so,” she
at these words? Was the article truly insen- When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo wrote of their outpouring of rage.
sitive, or was I being oversensitive? The Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, which hon- The relief I felt upon reading these com-
paragraph, after all, appeared in a reputa- ours convicted war criminals, in Decem- ments was tinged with shame. My orig-
ble magazine, and was likely written by a ber, I watched my fellow countrymen again inal response, having been validated by
seasoned reporter and vetted by scrupulous rise up with outrage. The same reaction these comments, now only seemed fee-
editors. occurred in October when a sketch from ble and inauthentic. It is OK to feel angry
I read the paragraph again. Grasping for American comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s show now, I thought, though I was no longer
a measured response, I asked myself a few included the line “kill everyone in China.” sure whether to be angry with Time or with
questions. Would I feel offended if the para- In both cases, I pored over western myself.
graph had appeared in a Chinese magazine media reports on how the Chinese had Helen Gao is a journalist based in Beijing
AC Grayling
Freedom to make bad choices
Respect the principle of liberty
We are required by law to wear seatbelts ting them to make bad choices just where he of soft drink bottles in New York (a way of
in cars and crash helmets on motorbikes, should be doing the opposite on their behalf. limiting corn syrup intake by the American
to refrain from smoking in public indoor What is at stake in this quarrel? The obese) are a staging post on the way thither.
areas, from injecting heroin and smoking answer is: liberty. When the authors of the It is accordingly important to distinguish
marijuana—all in the interests of our health, Federalist Papers were debating whether to between laws that require information about
well-being and safety. Such laws imply that add a Bill of Rights to the new United States the content of foodstuffs—stating how
the government knows best what is in our Constitution, Alexander Hamilton objected much fat and sugar they contain—and laws
interests, and has a duty to act accordingly. that drawing up a list of positive rights that (might one day) ban sugar, because the
Is this always right? Consider a more would imply that they were the only ones former provide people with information on
recent and apparently more anodyne mat- to which citizens were entitled, whereas the which they can choose for themselves how to
ter. In the last budget, the Chancellor absence of prohibition left open the whole act, whereas the latter embody the principle
announced that pensioners will be able field of what Isaiah Berlin later called “neg- that nanny knows best.
to dispose of their savings as they see fit, a ative liberties,” defined as absence of con- Does nanny know best about pension
reversal of current policy in which pension- straint. Pertinently, Berlin declared himself plans? Almost certainly. Does that mean
ers’ savings have to be deployed in a pre- wary of “positive liberties”—those permit- nanny should tell people what to do with the
scribed manner. ted or (worse) enjoined constitutionally or money they have earned and saved? Not one
Critics claim that people in general are by statute—on the grounds that they are in bit. If as much effort went into reminding
not good at making long-term plans, and the interests, as decided by those who know people that they have to take responsibility
that their pension plans should therefore be best, of those destined to enjoy them. for themselves as goes into taking decisions
arranged by professionals. Freeing pension- Once our legislators are endowed with for them, the latter might be less necessary.
ers to dispose of their savings at will, say the the power to decide what is in our interests, There is a difficult line here, of course.
critics, is in effect imprisoning them in the it is not long before they begin to exercise Through its representatives in government
consequences of their ignorance and short- them. We think it is a joke to say that sugar a community might make rational deci-
sightedness. Current policy protects them will soon be the new heroin, to be proscribed sions to do certain things that limit individ-
against this; the Chancellor is now permit- as injurious to health—but laws on the size ual freedoms in the interests of all—such
Opinions.indd 18 17/04/2014 15:27