Routledge handbook of the Chinese economy

373 Pages·2015·2.147 MB·English

by  Chow, Gregory C.;Perkins, Dwight H

ROUTLEDGE HANDBOOK OF
THE CHINESE ECONOMY
China’s rapid rise to become the world’s second largest economy has resulted in an unprecedented
impact on the global system and an urgent need to understand more about the newest economic
superpower.
The R outledge Handbook of the Chinese Economy is an advanced-level reference guide which
surveys the current economic situation in China and its integration into the global economy. An
internationally renowned line-up of scholars contribute chapters on the key components of the
contemporary economy and its historical foundations.
Topics covered include:
• t he history of the Chinese economy from ancient times onwards;
• e conomic growth and development;
• p opulation, the labor market, income distribution, and poverty;
• l egal, political, and financial institutions; and
• f oreign trade and investments.
Offering a cutting-edge overview of the Chinese economy, the H andbook is an invaluable
resource for academics, researchers, economists, graduate, and undergraduate students studying
this ever-evolving field.
Gregory C. Chow is Professor of Economics and Class of 1913 Professor of Political Economy,
emeritus, at Princeton University, USA and has been on the Princeton faculty since 1970.
Dwight H. Perkins is the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, emeritus,
at Harvard University, USA and has been on the Harvard faculty since 1963.
In this volume, Gregory Chow and Dwight Perkins assemble a global array of authors to pro-
vide a comprehensive account of China’s economic development both before and after the
reform initiatives of the late 1970s. While many of the contributors focus on institutions, poli-
cies and outcomes at the national level, detailed accounts by reform participants Wu Jinglian and
Yi Gang along with an iconoclastic essay by Lynn White provide readers with unusual insight
into the operational mechanisms of China’s political economy.
Thomas G. Rawski, Professor of Economics and History, University of Pittsburgh, USA
The Routledge Handbook of the Chinese Economy excels in the breadth of its contributors and
topics. Professors Chow and Perkins have assembled an all-star group of authors ranging from
international academic leaders to those with relevant experience within the Chinese govern-
ment. Topics range from historical perspectives to current economic issues on the road to
reform. Anyone interested in the Chinese economy will find this Handbook must reading.
Burton G. Malkiel, Professor of Economics, Princeton University, USA
Gregory Chow and Dwight Perkins, two giants in economic science, were major figures in
helping to start the process of training Chinese students in modern economics in 1986 through
their chairmen-ship of the US–China Committee on Economics Education and Research at
the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. We must thank them again now for sharing with us
some of the significant fruits of that transformational training program. The many excellent
articles in this Handbook on a broad range of topics make it indispensable to the library of a
China scholar.
Wing Thye Woo, Professor of Economics, University of California, Davis, USA
ROUTLEDGE HANDBOOK OF
THE CHINESE ECONOMY
Edited by Gregory C. Chow and Dwight H. Perkins
ROUTLEDGE RTaoylour &t lFerandcigs Gero up
LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 2015
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2015 selection and editorial material, Gregory C. Chow and Dwight H.
Perkins; individual chapters, the contributors
The right of Gregory C. Chow and Dwight H. Perkins to be identified as
authors of the editorial material, and of the individual authors as authors of
their contributions, has been asserted by them in accordance with sections
77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice : Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Routledge handbook of the Chinese economy / edited by Gregory C.
Chow and Dwight H. Perkins.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. China–Economic conditions. 2. China–Economic policy. 3. Economic
development. I. Chow, Gregory C. II. Perkins, Dwight H. (Dwight Heald)
HC427.R667 2014
330.951–dc23
2014000039
ISBN: 978-0-415-64344-3 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-76747-5 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Cenveo Publisher Services
CONTENTS
List of fi gures vii
List of tables x
Notes on contributors xii
Preface xvi
List of abbreviations xviii
1 The characteristics of China’s traditional economy 1
M an-houng Lin
2 The late Qing dynasty to the early Republic of China: a period
of great institutional transformation 21
K enneth S. Chan
3 The centrally planned command economy (1949–84) 41
D wight H. Perkins
4 China’s economic reform: processes, issues, and prospects (1978–2012) 55
W u Jinglian and Fan Shitao
5 Economic growth and development 76
J ustin Yifu Lin
6 Population in China: changes and future perspectives 90
P eng Xizhe
7 A labor market with Chinese characteristics 103
R ichard B. Freeman
v
Contents
8 The Chinese savings puzzles 121
J ean-Pierre Laffargue and Eden S. H. Yu
9 Macroeconomic management of the Chinese economy since the 1990s 138
Y u Yongding
10 Trends in income inequality in China since the 1950s 157
C arl Riskin
11 China’s agriculture: past failures, present successes and enabling policies 168
J ikun Huang and Scott Rozelle
12 State and non-state enterprises in China’s economic transition 182
L igang Song
13 Foreign trade of China 208
K . C. Fung and Sarah Y. Tong
14 China’s inbound and outbound foreign direct investment 222
Y asheng Huang
15 Banking and financial institutions 235
G ang Yi and Kai Guo
16 Law and the economy in China 255
J acques deLisle
17 Political mechanisms and corruption 280
L ynn T. White
18 Energy and environmental issues and policy in China 303
Z hongXiang Zhang
19 The future of the Chinese economy 324
D avid Daokui Li
Index 343
vi
FIGURES
2.1 The centralization of authority 23
2.2 The tax-to-GDP ratio: China and Britain (%) 31
4.1 China’s export and import trade (1978–2010) (US$m.) 65
4.2 China’s economic growth (1990–2010) 67
4.3 Changes in the rate of China’s fixed-asset investments (2000–2011) 70
4.4 Falling consumption as a proportion of GDP (1978–2010) 71
4.5 Changes in China’s M2/GDP (2000–2012) 71
5.1 China’s share in global GDP 77
5.2 Contributions of household consumption, fixed asset formation,
and net exports to GDP 82
5.3 China’s corporate, household, and government savings as percentage of GDP 83
6.1 Population dynamics in China (1949–2011) 91
6.2 Population projections 92
6.3 Changes of age structure in China (1970–2030) 93
6.4 Population age pyramid in China 94
6.5 Geographic distribution of policy fertility at the prefecture level,
China (late 1990s) 95
6.6 Percentage of working age (15–59) in total population 98
6.7 China’s urbanization process (1980–2011) 99
6.8 Main flows of inter-provincial migration of China 100
7.1 Measures of inequality 105
7.2 Gini coefficients for total income 107
8.1 Ratios of sectoral savings to Chinese national disposable income 123
8.2 National and disaggregated savings rates 125
8.3 Shares of the three domestic agents in national disposable income 125
8.4 Business sector shares in national disposable income 127
8.5 Business sector shares in national disposable income 127
8.6 Business sector shares in national disposable income 128
8.7 Household savings rate (household surveys data) 130
vii
Figures
8.8 Household savings rate (Japan) 131
8.9 Household savings rate (Korea) 131
10.1 Official Gini coefficient estimates for China (2003–2012) 158
12.1 Share of gross industrial output value by ownership (1978–1993) 185
12.2 Profits and losses of SOEs (1985–1993) 185
12.3 Share of gross industrial output value by type of ownership (1993–2003) 190
12.4 Annual profit rates of SOEs (1993–2002) 191
12.5 Share of gross industrial output value by types of ownership
above designated size (1998–2011) 194
12.6 Annual average employment ratio by types of ownership above
designated size (1998–2011) 194
12.7 Annual ratio of value-added tax payable by types of ownership
above designated size (1998–2011) 195
12.8 Annual ratio of total profit by types of ownership above
designated size (1998–2011) 195
12.9 Profit rates of SOEs (2002–2011) 196
13.1 Share of FIEs in China’s total exports (1995–2011) 209
13.2 Ratio of China’s trade surplus to total trade (1994–2011) 210
13.3 China’s trade imbalance (2000–2011) 211
13.4 China’s trade balances with selected economies (2007–2011) 212
14.1 Stock of Chinese inbound FDI (US$ billion) 223
14.2 Flow measure of Chinese inbound FDI (US$ billion) 223
14.3 FDI flows:GDP ratios (1985–2011) 225
14.4 FDI stock:GDP ratios (1985–2011) 226
14.5 Increasing IFDI flows from overseas Chinese (US$ billion) 227
14.6 Rising share of overseas Chinese IFDI 228
14.7 China’s OFDI (1991–2010) 230
14.8 Share of OFDI to Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands 231
15.1 Asset distribution in China’s banking sector (2011) 243
15.2 Evolution of RMB effective exchange rates 246
18.1 Cumulative installed wind power capacity by country (1980–2011) 308
18.2 Preliminary and final values for total primary energy consumption
in China (1990–2008) 316
18.3 Preliminary and final values for coal consumption in China (1990–2008) 317
19.1 Chinese GDP relative to US GDP 325
19.2 Global share of Chinese GDP using RMB market exchange rate 325
19.3 Chinese and US economic emergence compared 326
19.4 Japanese economic emergence after Meiji Restoration 327
19.5 China’s GDP growth rate (1978–2010) 327
19.6 China’s per capita income as a percentage of US per capita income (1961–2011) 328
19.7 Rapid increase of Gini coefficient in China (1990–2011) 328
19.8 Regional disparities among Chinese provinces 329
19.9 Ratio of export to GDP 330
19.10 China’s trade surplus to GDP 330
19.11 Capital formation as a share of GDP 331
19.12 China’s share of iron and other ore imports 331
19.13 China’s share of CO emissions 332
2
viii
Figures
19.14 University and college enrollments (per 10,000 pop.) 332
19.15 China’s economic growth after reaching 18% of US GDP: a forecast 334
19.16 Estimates of surplus labor 335
19.17 Service sector as a share of GDP 336
19.18 Estimates of urban population share in China 337
ix