Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management PDF
Preview Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management
Craig E. Taylor Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks Craig E. Taylor Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management Craig E. Taylor (deceased) ImageCat, Inc. Torrance , CA , USA ISBN 978-3-319-19412-7 ISBN 978-3-319-19413-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015946985 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 T his work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. T he use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. T he publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper S pringer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Dedicated to Dr. Craig E. Taylor (1945–2014) Vires Acquirit Eundo “We gather strength as we go” The Aeneid by Virgil Cred its Principal Author Craig E. Taylor Advisory Team Melissa Taylor Dresler Yajie Lee Adam F. Taylor Contributors William P. Graf Charles K. Huyck Zhenghui Hu Ronald T. Eguchi Robert Riehemann David Perkins Abigail Horn Special Thanks to the full team at ImageCat Yajie Lee William P. Graf Charles K. Huyck Zhenghui Hu Ronald T. Eguchi Additional Thanks Fritz Schmuhl Adam Rose Syed Rashid Minhas Gayle Taylor Romy Taylor Catherine Taylor Slava Petuhov Madison Dresler vii Foreword N atural and human-made events, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, epidemics, and terrorist attacks, can cause colossal damage and immense social and economic dis- ruptions. These threats are never completely avoidable, but often can be mitigated or preempted if the necessary resources are allocated and prudent actions are taken in advance. Preparations can include retiring or retrofi tting existing vulnerable facil- ities, researching and enhancing the effectiveness of construction codes, planning future developments with conscious risk considerations, and utilizing fi nancial vehicles to transfer losses and fund post-disaster recovery. In reality, however, resources are always limited, forcing decision-makers to make judgments about priorities based on the information at hand. Preparing for potential future events can be seen as less pressing than addressing more substantive current crises if the poten- tial magnitude of these events is not fully understood. Decision-makers need more information to assist in creating plans and appropriately allocating available resources before an event strikes in order to build a more robust and disaster- resilient community. Achieving this goal begins with a realistic assessment of a community’s potential disaster-related risks. This, however, is by no means an easy task. Assessing risks includes understanding and modeling the very complex 1) physical process of the potential risk events, 2) response of the community as a whole as well as its indi- vidual systems, and 3) potential socioeconomic consequences. In the past several decades, numerous research studies have been performed across a broad range of disciplines to assess potential impacts from mega-risk events. Scientifi c models and analytical frameworks are continually developed. Methodologies undergo ongoing improvement with advances in subdisciplines. These methodologies, unfortunately, are generally mathematically driven and computationally intensive. The wide use of computer technology from early 1980s has introduced a revolutionary change in how mega-risks can be studied and analyzed. Today, with continuous and rapid advancement in computing technologies, risk modeling techniques are improving at an unprecedented speed. ix
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