Rivalry and Revenge: The Politics of Violence During Civil War

280 Pages·2017·9.99 MB·English

by  Laia Balcells

RivalryandRevenge
Whatexplainsviolenceagainstciviliansincivilwars?Whydogroups
kill civilians in areas where they have full military control and their
rivals have no military presence? This innovative book connects pre-
warpoliticstopatternsofviolenceduringcivilwar.Itarguesthatboth
local political rivalry and local revenge account for violence against
civilians. Armed groups perpetrate direct violence jointly with local
civilians, who collaborate when violence can help them gain or con-
solidatelocalpoliticalcontrol.Ascivilwarcontinues,revengemotives
alsocomeintoplay,leadingtospiralsofviolenceatalocallevel.
InanimportantcontributiontothestudyoftheSpanishCivilWar,
Balcellscombinesstatisticalanalyseswithethnographicandqualitative
researchtoprovidenewinsightstoscholarsandacademicresearchers
with an interest in civil war, politics, and conflict processes. Rivalry
andRevengeistheoreticallyandempiricallyrich,anditoffersatheory
andmethodgeneralizabletoawidesetofcases.
LaiaBalcellsisAssistantProfessorofPoliticalScienceatDukeUniver-
sity.
CambridgeStudiesinComparativePolitics
GeneralEditors
KathleenThelenMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology
ErikWibbelsDukeUniversity
AssociateEditors
CatherineBooneLondonSchoolofEconomics
ThadDunningUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
AnnaGrzymala-BusseStanfordUniversity
TorbenIversenHarvardUniversity
StathisKalyvasYaleUniversity
MargaretLeviStanfordUniversity
HelenMilnerPrincetonUniversity
FrancesRosenbluthYaleUniversity
SusanStokesYaleUniversity
TariqThachilVanderbiltUniversity
SeriesFounder
PeterLangeDukeUniversity
OtherBooksintheSeries
ChristopherAdolph,Bankers,Bureaucrats,andCentralBankPolitics:
TheMythofNeutrality
MichaelAlbertus,AutocracyandRedistribution:ThePoliticsofLandReform
BenW.Ansell,FromtheBallottotheBlackboard:TheRedistributivePolitical
EconomyofEducation
BenW.Ansell,DavidJ.Samuels,InequalityandDemocratization:An
Elite-CompetitionApproach
LeonardoR.Arriola,Multi-EthnicCoalitionsinAfrica:BusinessFinancingof
OppositionElectionCampaigns
DavidAusten-Smith,JeffryA.Frieden,MiriamA.Golden,KarlOveMoene,and
AdamPrzeworski,eds.,SelectedWorksofMichaelWallerstein:ThePoliticalEconomy
ofInequality,Unions,andSocialDemocracy
AndyBaker,TheMarketandtheMassesinLatinAmerica:PolicyReformand
ConsumptioninLiberalizingEconomies
Continuedaftertheindex
Rivalry and Revenge
The Politics of Violence during Civil War
LAIA BALCELLS
DukeUniversity
UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom
OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,NY10006,USA
477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,VIC3207,Australia
4843/24,2ndFloor,AnsariRoad,Daryaganj,Delhi–110002,India
79AnsonRoad,#06–04/06,Singapore079906
CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge.
ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof
education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107118690
DOI:10.1017/9781316392737
(cid:2)c LaiaBalcells2017
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2017
AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
NAMES:Balcells,Laia,author.
TITLE:Rivalryandrevenge:thepoliticsofviolenceduringcivilwar/Laia
Balcells,DukeUniversity.
DESCRIPTION:Cambridge:NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,2017.|
Includesbibliographicalreferences.
IDENTIFIERS:LCCN2016047817|ISBN9781107118690(hbk)
SUBJECTS:LCSH:Civilwar.|Politicalviolence.|Civiliansinwar.|
Spain–History–CivilWar,1936-1939.|Côted’Ivoire–History–Civil
War,2002-2007.
CLASSIFICATION:LCCJC328.5.B352017|DDC303.6/4–dc23
LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2016047817
ISBN978-1-107-11869-0Hardback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof
URLsforexternalorthird-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhispublication
anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchWebsitesis,orwillremain,
accurateorappropriate.
To all the victims of civil wars
Contents
ListofFigures pageix
Acknowledgments xi
Conventions xiv
Preface xv
PART I
1 ViolenceAgainstCiviliansDuringCivilWars 3
1.1 PuzzleandStateoftheArt 3
1.2 SummaryoftheArgument 5
1.3 TheoreticalStrategy 11
1.4 CaseSelectionandResearchDesign 12
1.5 ScopeConditionsandExternalValidity 15
1.6 PlanoftheBook 16
2 ATheoryofViolenceAgainstCivilians 19
2.1 ConceptualConsiderations 19
2.2 ATheoryofDirectViolence 26
2.3 SubsequentTimePeriods 37
2.4 AdditionalObservableImplications 41
2.5 Discussion 42
2.6 ConcludingRemarks 43
PART II
3 HistoryoftheSpanishCivilWar(1936–1939) 49
3.1 Introduction 49
3.2 AntecedentsoftheCivilWar 50
3.3 InsidetheWar 63
3.4 ViolenceAgainstCivilians 67
vii
viii Contents
3.5 The Study of Violence During the Spanish Civil War: Data
SourcesandCaveats 76
3.6 RegionalPatternsofViolence 77
4 ExecutionsandMassacresDuringtheSpanishCivilWar 87
4.1 DirectViolenceinInitialPeriodsoftheSpanishCivilWar 87
4.2 ViolenceinNon-InitialPeriods 116
4.3 LocalitiesThatFittheTheoryandOutliers 124
4.4 AdditionalEmpiricalChecks 127
4.5 ConcludingRemarks 128
5 BombardmentsDuringtheSpanishCivilWar 130
5.1 Introduction 130
5.2 IsIndirectViolenceNecessarilyIndiscriminate? 131
5.3 AccountingforIndirectViolenceAgainstCivilians 132
5.4 BombardmentsinCataloniaDuringtheSpanishCivilWar 135
5.5 Conclusions 145
PART III
6 TheConflictinCôted’Ivoire(2002–2011) 151
6.1 Introduction 151
6.2 TheCivilWarinCôted’Ivoire 152
6.3 DirectViolencein2010–2011 164
6.4 ConcludingRemarks 169
7 AdditionalEvidenceandMacro-LevelImplications 171
7.1 Introduction 171
7.2 EvidencefromOtherCases 171
7.3 Large-nAnalyses 175
7.4 Conclusions 180
8 Conclusions 181
8.1 MainLessons 181
8.2 LessonsAboutCaseStudies 184
8.3 CompetingExplanations 187
8.4 BroaderImplicationsandNextSteps 189
8.5 ConcludingRemarks 192
Appendix 194
Bibliography 219
Index 252
Figures
2.1 Civilian and Armed Group Agency in the Perpetration of
Violence 23
2.2 Marginal Returns of Violence (Perpetrated by A), in
A-ControlledAreas 34
2.3 Marginal Returns of Violence (Perpetrated by A), in
A-ControlledAreas;ThreeDifferentScenarios 34
2.4 Local Elites Motives and Violence in Different Periods of a
CivilWar 40
3.1 RebelandRepublicanAreas,July22,1936 61
3.2 ExecutedbytheRightinCatalonia,byProvince 79
3.3 ExecutedbytheLeftinCatalonia 80
3.4 ExecutedbytheRightinCatalonia 80
3.5 BombingsbytheRightinCatalonia 81
3.6 ExecutedbytheRightinAragon(1936–1939) 83
3.7 ExecutedbytheLeftinMalaga 85
4.1 Percentage of Right-Wing Affiliates Executed, by Percent
SupportfortheLeft 93
4.2 ExecutedbytheLeftinCatalonia:MarginalEffects(ZINB) 101
4.3 Executed by the Left in Catalonia: Marginal Effects (ZINB),
byPoliticalPartyMembership(ConditionalMarginalEffects
atMeans,with95%CI) 103
4.4 DepthofLocalCleavagesandExecutionsbytheLeft 104
4.5 ExecutedbytheRightinAragon:MarginalEffects(ZINB) 106
4.6 PredictedExecutions,byLevelofPrewarCompetition 108
4.7 ExecutedbytheLeftinMalaga:MarginalEffects(ZINB) 110
4.8 TotalExecutedinNon-BattlefieldAreas,byLevelsofSupport
fortheLeftinthe1936Elections 113
4.9 ExecutedbytheRightinBattlefieldandRearguardAreas,by
LevelsofSupportfortheLeftinthe1936Elections 115
4.10 Executed by the Left (t ) and Executed by the Right (t ) in
1 2
Catalonia 120
5.1 FascistBombingsbyLevelsofSupportfortheLeft 141
ix
x ListofFigures
6.1 Côte d’Ivoire: Military Control Areas in the 2010–2011
Conflict 159
6.2 TurnoutinPresidentialElections,Côted’Ivoire 162
7.1 Low-IntensityViolenceBetweenCatholicsandProtestantsin
NorthernIreland(2005–2012) 172
7.2 Predicted Low-Intensity Inter-Group Violence Events in
NorthernIreland(2005–2012) 173
7.3 CivilianVictimizationAcrossCivilWarsDuringtheColdWar
andAfter 177
A.4.1 Executed by the Left in Catalonia, by Political Party
Membership 207
A.4.2 Workers’s Strikes in a Locality (1931–1936) and Leftist
ExecutionsinMalaga 207
A.4.3 Civilians Executed outside Battlefield Zones (All Regions);
MarginalEffects(ZINB) 208
A.4.4 SupportfortheLeftinCatalonia(1936) 208
A.4.5 SupportfortheLeftinAragon(1936) 209
A.4.6 SupportfortheLeftinMalaga(1936) 209
Acknowledgments
ThisbookhasitsoriginsinaPhDdissertationIdefendedatYaleUniversityin
2010.Atthattime,theprojectbenefitedenormouslyfromtheadviceprovided
bythemembersofmyPhDcommittee:StathisN.Kalyvas,ElisabethJ.Wood,
andDavidMayhew.IamverygratefulfortheintellectualimprintthatStathis,
Libby, and Prof. Mayhew have left on me, beyond the dissertation and this
book.
The research in this book has benefited from generous help offered by
many different people. Albert Sesé, Anna Palacios, Josep Ventura, and Mercè
Tafallaassistedmeinthearduousprocessofdatadigitalization;NachoCam-
panero provided crucial help with the mapping of the data. Giulia Piccolino,
AlbertCaramés,andMonicaPalmieriwerecriticalresearchassistantsinCôte
d’Ivoire.
Over the course of several months of fieldwork in Spain, I met a number
of historians who were happy to walk me through archives, share data, or
provide insider’s insights on the Spanish conflict. I thank them for not having
pushedmeawayfromtheirdiscipline,butratherpulledmein.Theseareschol-
arssuchasJoanVillarroya,JosepMariaRoigRosich,JoséLuisLedesma,Jordi
Gaitx,and Antonio Calzado. Many relatives,friends,and acquaintances, and
their families, provided me with contacts for potential interviews, as well as
logisticalsupportduringfieldworkinSpain:thankyou,RosóVentura,Carles
Fernández, Arsènia Clavera, Lucita Díaz, Anna Fernández, Roger Robert,
GemmaTorres,HelenaSimón,AlbertPiñeira,AlvaroMartínez,LluisOrriols,
Pedro Riera, Gema García-Albacete, Elna Roig, Aina Roig, Mireia Calafell,
DídacQueralt,MariaJoséHierro,MikelOchoa,GemmaSala,RemoFernán-
dez,LourdesMonedero,ImeldaTejero,JoanCucurella,HéctorCebolla,Anna
del Arroyo, and Elisa Chuliá. In different localities I visited, I found support
fromstrangerswhohelpedmefindtestimoniesofthewar:JaumeTeixidó,Toni
Orensanz, Pere Audí, and Angela Jackson are some of them. Above all, I am
particularlygratefultoallmyinterviewees,whotookthetimetomeetwithme
and recount their experiences: chatting with them helped me to learn a great
xi