Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe

319 Pages·2017·18.594 MB·English

by  Dimitar Bechev

“Dimitar Bechev is the right author of the right book at the right time.”
Tim Judah, Balkans correspondent, The Economist
DIMITAR BECHEV
Praise for
RIVAL POWER
“It would be good to say that this book is a valuable addition to the
canon. It is not. When it comes to the issue of Russia, the Balkans, and
the wider region of Southeastern Europe, it is the canon, because no
one else has written about it. Dimitar Bechev is the right author of the
right book at the right time.”
Tim Judah, Balkans correspondent, The Economist
“For the new ‘Great Game’ of geopolitical competition, look above all
to the Balkans, a region where the impact of Russian energy, soft
power, and covert operations are all at their strongest. This excellent
book is the best primer yet to this unfolding struggle; a scholarly,
sympathetic, and realistic analysis of the present situation and likely
future developments that deserves to be read widely and carefully.”
Mark Galeotti, head of the Center for European Security,
Institute of International Relations, Prague
“Russia is back in the Balkans and ideology has little to do with it. In
this engaging book, Dimitar Bechev argues that revival of Russia’s
influence in the region was made possible by its pragmatism and
tough-minded pursuit of material gains. Those viewing Russia as the
new ideological warrior will be challenged in their beliefs.”
Andrei P. Tsygankov, professor of international relations,
San Francisco State University
“This timely and insightful analysis takes the Russian challenge to the
stability of Southeast Europe seriously, and shows its limitations,
despite the abundant opportunities created by local miscreants.”
Pavel Baev, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution,
and Research Professor, Peace Research Institute, Oslo
“At the time when it is fashionable to sound alarmist on Russia’s return
to the Balkans, Rival Power provides a clear-eyed assessment of the
opportunities and significant limits for Russia’s power in the region.”
Vladimir Frolov, foreign affairs columnist, Republic.ru
“Once written off as a fading actor in a region ever more integrated
with the EU, Russia is now playing an increasingly disruptive role in
Southeast Europe. Drawing on his innate understanding of the area,
and an unmatched knowledge of the region’s languages, Dimitar
i
Bechev looks beyond the stereotypical explanations for this Russian
resurgence and investigates the hard political calculations at play.
This is a truly excellent, and highly readable, account of how Moscow
is trying to extend its influence across the Balkans, Greece, Cyprus,
and Turkey.”
James Ker-Lindsay, Senior Visiting Fellow, London School of
Economics and Political Science
“Dimitar Bechev’s book possesses the rare quality of being the work of
a seasoned and insightful scholar, but also of someone who appreciates
the exciting twists and turns of Russia’s dramatic relationship with the
Balkans. Rival Power is very well written and dispenses with several
persistent myths, especially one that views countries of the region and
their leaders as ‘victims’ of Moscow’s preying. A thrilling and stark
exposé of Russia’s masterful use of a limited political arsenal to further
its goals.”
Konstantin Eggert, commentator and host, TV Rain, Moscow
“Rival Power is a very timely and comprehensive book, written by one
of the most accomplished observers of the international relations of
the Russian Federation since its inception. It is written in a concise
and clear language, masterfully relaying the gradual reemergence of
Russia as a new (old) challenge to the West in the Balkans and the
Black Sea. A must reading for those who wish to make sense of the
recent developments in international politics.”
Mustafa Aydın, professor at Kadir Has University, Istanbul
“Dimitar Bechev’s groundbreaking work on Southeast Europe vividly
demonstrates how Vladimir Putin exploits the West’s distractions.
This book documents a revisionist Kremlin’s efforts to disrupt the
reform and integration process in the Western Balkans, and in turn
sow doubts about the future of the European project and US leadership.
Bechev’s research also makes clear that Russia offers no viable
alternative to the European Union and United States in Southeast
Europe, while serving as a warning that, if left unchecked, Russian
mischief-making could lead to conflict in the region.”
Damon Wilson, executive vice president of the Atlantic Council
“In times when conspiracy theories are in full blossom, this is a sober,
historically informed, cogently argued, and well-documented analysis
of Russia’s influence in Southeast Europe. Very much worth reading.”
Loukas Tsoukalis, professor of European integration, University
of Athens, and president of the Hellenic Foundation
for European and Foreign Policy
ii
R I V A L
P O W E R
RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE
IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE
DIMITAR BECHEV
YALE UNIVERSITY PRESS
NEW HAVEN AND LONDON
iii
Copyright © 2017 Dimitar Bechev
All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in
any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S.
Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press) without written
permission from the publishers.
For information about this and other Yale University Press publications,
please contact:
U.S. Office: [email protected] yalebooks.com
Europe Office: [email protected] yalebooks.co.uk
Set in Minion Pro by IDSUK (DataConnection) Ltd
Printed in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017943875
ISBN 978-0-300-21913-5
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
iv
To my children, Emanuil, Anthony, and Sophia
v
vi
CONTENTS
List of Maps and Figures ix
Acknowledgments xi
A Note on Transliteration xiv
List of Abbreviations xv
Introduction: An Empire Returns 1
PART I Russia and the Countries of Southeast Europe
1 The Balkans Rediscovered: Russia and the Breakup
of Yugoslavia 23
2 Meddling in Europe’s Backyard: Russia and the
Western Balkans 51
3 Across the Black Sea: Bulgaria and Romania 86
4 Friends with Benefits: Greece and Cyprus 113
5 The Russian–Turkish Marriage of Convenience 139
PART II Areas of Russian Influence
6 From a Military Standoff to Hybrid Warfare 179
vii
viii CONTENTS
7 Playing the Energy Card 198
8 The Allure of Russia’s Might 225
Epilogue: Russia’s Influence – What’s It All About? 245
Appendices 250
Notes 254
Select Bibliography 283
Index 290
MAPS AND FIGURES
Maps
1. The Burgas–Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the
Belene nuclear power plant. 103
2. Blue Stream. 156
3. Blue Stream, TurkStream, and the Akkuyu nuclear
power plant. 167
4. Southern Corridor. 169
5. South Stream. 206
6. Gas transit infrastructure in Southeast and Central
Europe. 222
Figures
1. EU/Russia share in external trade in goods, 2015. 15
2. Key UN Security Council resolutions endorsed by
Russia. 33
3. Import dependence on Russia (% of domestic
consumption). 201
4. Gazprom LTC prices ($/1,000 cubic meters). 204
5. Russian oil companies in Southeast Europe. 212
ix