Risk, Organizations, and Society

236 Pages·1990·5.63 MB·English

by  Martin Shubik (auth.), Martin Shubik (eds.)

Risk, Organizations, and Society
Studies in Risk and Uncertainty
edited by W. Kip Viscusi
Department of Economics
Duke University
Durham, North Carolina 27706
Previously published books in the series:
1. Luken, R.: Environmental Regulation:
Technology, Ambient, and Benefits-based
Approaches
Risk, Organizations, and Society
Edited by
Martin Shubik
Seymour H. Knox Professor of
Mathematical Institutional Economics
Yale School of Organization and Management
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Boston / Dordrecht / London
Distributors for North America:
Kluwer Academic Publishers
101 Philip Drive
Assinippi Park
Norwell, Massachusetts 02061 USA
Distributors for all other countries:
Kluwer Academic Publishers Group
Distribution Centre
Post Office Box 322
3300 AH Dordrecht, THE NETHERLANDS
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Risk, organizations, and society/edtted by Martin Shubik.
p. cm.-(Studies in risk and uncertainty)
Includes bibliographical references.
Includes index.
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-7490-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-2207-5
001: 10.1007/978-94-009-2207-5
1. Risk assessment-8ocial aspects. 2. Technology-Risk
assessment-Social aspects. 3. Health risk assessment-Social
aspects. I. Shubik, Martin. II. Series.
T174.5.R57 1991
363.1---<lc20 90-4692
CIP
Copyright© 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1991
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior
written permission of the publisher, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101
Philip Drive, Assinippi Park, Norwell, Massachusetts 02061
Printed on acid-free paper.
Contents
Introduction: Risk in a Complex World
I
Methodological Comments 5
1
Risk, Society, Politicians, Scientists, and People 7
Martin Shubik
II
Topics in Risk and Organization 31
2
Determinants of Public Participation in Management of
Technological Risk 33
Jan A. J. Stolwijk and Priscilla F. Canny
3
The Strategic Defense Initiative and Nuclear Proliferation from a Risk
Analysis Perspective 49
Chauncey Starr and Chris Whipple
4
Risk Assessment and Organizational Behavior: The Case of Nuclear
Technology and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons 63
Henry S. Rowen
5
Evaluating Security Against Terrorism 79
Brian M. Jenkins
VI RISK, ORGANIZATIONS, AND SOCIETY
6
Terrorism and Airline Security: An Interview with Homer A. Boynton 97
7
Smoking and Health Promotion Obstacles and Opportunities 105
Ernst. L. Wynder arid M. Orlandi
8
Cigarette Smoking: A Study of Change in Behavior 129
Thomas C. Schelling
9
Nuclear Power and Public Perception 143
Alvin M. Weinberg
10
The Failure of Nuclear Power 163
Henry W. Kendall
Appendix 1: A Selective Bibliography 219
Appendix 2: Biographical Sketches 223
Index 231
Contributing Authors
Homer A. Boynton Martin Shubik
Assistant Vice President for Security Department of Economics
American Airlines Yale University
P.O. Box 619616 P.O. Box 2125, Yale Station
Dallas-Fort Worth Airport New Haven, CT 06520
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 75080
Chauncey Starr
Brian Michael Jenkins Electrical Power Research Institute
Kroll Associates 3412 Hillview Avenue
300 South Grand Avenue Palo Alto, CA 94303
Los Angeles, CA 90071
Jan A. J. Stolwijk
Henry W. Kendall Yale University
MIT School of Epidemiology and Public
D 24-514 Health
Department of Physics 415 LEPH
Cambridge, MA 02139 New Haven, CT 06520
Henry S. Rowen Alvin M. Weinberg
OASD-ISA Institute for Energy Analysis
Pentagon 4E808 P.O.Box117
Washington, D.C. 20301 Oak Ridge, TN 37831
Thomas C. Schelling Ernst L. Wynder
Department of Economics President, American Health Foundation
Tydings Hall 320 East 43rd Street
University of Maryland New York, NY 10017
College Park, MD 20742
Risk, Organizations, and Society
INTRODUCTION: RISK IN
A COMPLEX WORLD
The goal of the seminar on which this book is based was to improve our
understanding of societal behavior with respect to risk. A step toward
achieving this is to start closing the conceptual gap among treatments of
(1) individual risk, where the individual acts to his own account; (2)
fiduciary risk, where the individual acts on the behalf of others; and
organizational risk, where a formal or informal group interprets both
public and professional perceptions of risk and investigates actions based
on this interpretation.
Questions must be asked and answered from several points of view.
Policy considerations call for an account of how at least five groups view
the problems. The ability to muster support depends, to a certain extent,
upon how well shared or diverse the perceptions are of (1) the political
and bureaucratic establishment, (2) the scientific and professional estab
lishment, (3) the nonpolitical leaders of public opinion, (4) the media,
and (5) the general public.
The questions to be asked of each one are: (1) Who perceives the
dangers, if any? (2) What are the priorities attached to the various
problem areas? (3) How strong is the consensus (or lack of consensus)
within the scientific and professional community? (4) Are the professional
1
2 RISK, ORGANIZATIONS, AND SOCIETY
views and nonprofessional views in concert? (5) What are the estimates
(and their reliability) concerning the political feasibility and economic
costs of an effective program?
In spite of the natural tendency to construct simple general causal
models, or to rationalize the blame for undesirable situations on one or
two sources, it is more likely that highly complex phenomena such as
society's reaction to smoking or to nuclear power involve different and
complicated configurations of many interacting variables that lead to
policy formation.
An important goal of this program is to begin to identify variables that
appear to be of greatest importance in different problems involving
societal risk perception. For example, an important differentiating feature
that distinguishes public concern for smoking as contrasted with civilian
use of nuclear power is that, in smoking, an individual has control of his
own fate. He decides whether or not to smoke. The individual does not
exercise personal control over the construction and utilization of a nu
clear power plant in his neighborhood. Furthermore, especially when
dealing with topics such as chemical warfare-where few individuals are
even aware of the problems, let alone their solutions-it is important that
assumptions concerning priorities, magnitude, and probability of danger
and costs of doing anything worthwhile are considered in the context of
the specific social risk.
The topics selected for consideration by the seminar were nuclear
energy, smoking, terrorism, and the spread of nuclear weapons.
The basic theme is that society at this time is confronted with a host of
major policy problems where the gap between professional and public
opinion may be large. Political, administrative, and bureaucratic action is
based to a considerable extent on the administrative perception of the
importance, intensity, and convergence or divergence of public and pro
fessional opinion.
Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, the seminar began with a dis
cussion of the various approaches to the study of risk suggested by work
in risk assessment, decision theory, economics, social psychology, and
sociology, including observations from theory, experimentation, and sam
ple surveys.
Two talks and papers were prepared by experts in each of these topics.
The speakers were asked to give an assessment of the specific topic from
their point of view, but also to relate their remarks to their perceptions of
when the topic was first perceived as a societal problem by the public,
what the state of professional opinion was at that time, and how public
and professional opinions have evolved since.