Risk Management and Financial Institutions Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing com- pany in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia,Wileyisgloballycommittedtodevelopingandmarketingprintandelectronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. TheWileyFinanceseriescontainsbookswrittenspecificallyforfinanceandin- vestmentprofessionalsaswellassophisticatedindividualinvestorsandtheirfinancial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk man- agement, financial engineering, valuation and financial instrument analysis, as well asmuchmore. Foralistofavailabletitles,visitourWebsiteatwww.WileyFinance.com. Risk Management and Financial Institutions Fourth Edition JOHN C. HULL Coverimage:©iStock.com/Pinkypills Coverdesign:Wiley Copyright©2015byJohnC.Hull.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. TheThirdEditionwaspublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.in2012.Thefirstandsecondeditionsof thisbookwaspublishedbyPrenticeHallin2006and2009. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformor byanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptas permittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteithertheprior writtenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeeto theCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978)750-8400, fax(978)646-8600,orontheWebatwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermission shouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken, NJ07030,(201)748-6011,fax(201)748-6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsin preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyor completenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesof merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysales representativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitable foryoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernor authorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedto special,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactour CustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat (317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002. Wileypublishesinavarietyofprintandelectronicformatsandbyprint-on-demand.Somematerial includedwithstandardprintversionsofthisbookmaynotbeincludedine-booksorinprint-on-demand. IfthisbookreferstomediasuchasaCDorDVDthatisnotincludedintheversionyoupurchased,you maydownloadthismaterialathttp://booksupport.wiley.com.FormoreinformationaboutWiley products,visitwww.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Hull,John,1946– Riskmanagementandfinancialinstitutions/JohnC.Hull.—FourthEdition. pagescm.—(Wileyfinanceseries) Includesindex. ISBN978-1-118-95594-9(paper);ISBN978-1-118-95596-3(ePDF); ISBN978-1-118-95595-6(ePUB) 1.Riskmanagement. 2.Financialinstitutions—Management. I.Title. HD61.H832015 332.1068'1—dc23 2014037477 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Michelle, Peter, and David Contents in Brief BusinessSnapshots xxi Preface xxiii Chapter1:Introduction 1 PARTONE:FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSANDTHEIRTRADING Chapter2:Banks 25 Chapter3:InsuranceCompaniesandPensionPlans 45 Chapter4:MutualFundsandHedgeFunds 71 Chapter5:TradinginFinancialMarkets 93 Chapter6:TheCreditCrisisof2007 121 Chapter7:ValuationandScenarioAnalysis:TheRisk-NeutralandRealWorlds 137 PARTTWO:MARKETRISK Chapter8:HowTradersManageTheirRisks 153 Chapter9:InterestRateRisk 175 Chapter10:Volatility 201 Chapter11:CorrelationsandCopulas 231 Chapter12:ValueatRiskandExpectedShortfall 255 Chapter13:HistoricalSimulationandExtremeValueTheory 277 Chapter14:Model-BuildingApproach 299 PARTTHREE:REGULATION Chapter15:BaselI,BaselII,andSolvencyII 325 Chapter16:BaselII.5,BaselIII,andOtherPost-CrisisChanges 353 Chapter17:FundamentalReviewoftheTradingBook 373 PARTFOUR:CREDITRISK Chapter18:ManagingCreditRisk:Margin,OTCMarkets,andCCPs 383 Chapter19:EstimatingDefaultProbabilities 401 Chapter20:CVAandDVA 429 Chapter21:CreditValueatRisk 447 PARTFIVE:OTHERTOPICS Chapter22:ScenarioAnalysisandStressTesting 463 Chapter23:OperationalRisk 481 Chapter24:LiquidityRisk 501 Chapter25:ModelRisk 527 Chapter26:EconomicCapitalandRAROC 547 Chapter27:EnterpriseRiskManagement 565 Chapter28:RiskManagementMistakestoAvoid 579 PARTSIX:APPENDICES Appendices 591 AnswerstoQuestionsandProblems 629 Glossary 669 DerivaGemSoftware 689 TablesforN(x) 695 Index 699 vii
Description: