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Risk Management and Financial Institutions PDF

743 Pages·2015·3.9 MB·English
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Risk Management and Financial Institutions Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing com- pany in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia and Asia,Wileyisgloballycommittedtodevelopingandmarketingprintandelectronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. TheWileyFinanceseriescontainsbookswrittenspecificallyforfinanceandin- vestmentprofessionalsaswellassophisticatedindividualinvestorsandtheirfinancial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk man- agement, financial engineering, valuation and financial instrument analysis, as well asmuchmore. Foralistofavailabletitles,visitourWebsiteatwww.WileyFinance.com. Risk Management and Financial Institutions Fourth Edition JOHN C. HULL Coverimage:©iStock.com/Pinkypills Coverdesign:Wiley Copyright©2015byJohnC.Hull.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. TheThirdEditionwaspublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.in2012.Thefirstandsecondeditionsof thisbookwaspublishedbyPrenticeHallin2006and2009. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformor byanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptas permittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteithertheprior writtenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeeto theCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978)750-8400, fax(978)646-8600,orontheWebatwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermission shouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken, NJ07030,(201)748-6011,fax(201)748-6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsin preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyor completenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesof merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysales representativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitable foryoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernor authorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedto special,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactour CustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat (317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002. Wileypublishesinavarietyofprintandelectronicformatsandbyprint-on-demand.Somematerial includedwithstandardprintversionsofthisbookmaynotbeincludedine-booksorinprint-on-demand. IfthisbookreferstomediasuchasaCDorDVDthatisnotincludedintheversionyoupurchased,you maydownloadthismaterialathttp://booksupport.wiley.com.FormoreinformationaboutWiley products,visitwww.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Hull,John,1946– Riskmanagementandfinancialinstitutions/JohnC.Hull.—FourthEdition. pagescm.—(Wileyfinanceseries) Includesindex. ISBN978-1-118-95594-9(paper);ISBN978-1-118-95596-3(ePDF); ISBN978-1-118-95595-6(ePUB) 1.Riskmanagement. 2.Financialinstitutions—Management. I.Title. HD61.H832015 332.1068'1—dc23 2014037477 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Michelle, Peter, and David Contents in Brief BusinessSnapshots xxi Preface xxiii Chapter1:Introduction 1 PARTONE:FINANCIALINSTITUTIONSANDTHEIRTRADING Chapter2:Banks 25 Chapter3:InsuranceCompaniesandPensionPlans 45 Chapter4:MutualFundsandHedgeFunds 71 Chapter5:TradinginFinancialMarkets 93 Chapter6:TheCreditCrisisof2007 121 Chapter7:ValuationandScenarioAnalysis:TheRisk-NeutralandRealWorlds 137 PARTTWO:MARKETRISK Chapter8:HowTradersManageTheirRisks 153 Chapter9:InterestRateRisk 175 Chapter10:Volatility 201 Chapter11:CorrelationsandCopulas 231 Chapter12:ValueatRiskandExpectedShortfall 255 Chapter13:HistoricalSimulationandExtremeValueTheory 277 Chapter14:Model-BuildingApproach 299 PARTTHREE:REGULATION Chapter15:BaselI,BaselII,andSolvencyII 325 Chapter16:BaselII.5,BaselIII,andOtherPost-CrisisChanges 353 Chapter17:FundamentalReviewoftheTradingBook 373 PARTFOUR:CREDITRISK Chapter18:ManagingCreditRisk:Margin,OTCMarkets,andCCPs 383 Chapter19:EstimatingDefaultProbabilities 401 Chapter20:CVAandDVA 429 Chapter21:CreditValueatRisk 447 PARTFIVE:OTHERTOPICS Chapter22:ScenarioAnalysisandStressTesting 463 Chapter23:OperationalRisk 481 Chapter24:LiquidityRisk 501 Chapter25:ModelRisk 527 Chapter26:EconomicCapitalandRAROC 547 Chapter27:EnterpriseRiskManagement 565 Chapter28:RiskManagementMistakestoAvoid 579 PARTSIX:APPENDICES Appendices 591 AnswerstoQuestionsandProblems 629 Glossary 669 DerivaGemSoftware 689 TablesforN(x) 695 Index 699 vii

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The most complete, up to date guide to risk management in finance Risk Management and Financial Institutions explains all aspects of financial risk and financial institution regulation, helping readers better understand the financial markets and potential dangers. This new fourth edition has been up
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