Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals: A System Perspective for Assessing and Avoiding Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events

477 Pages·2015·22.59 MB·English

by  Hans J Pasman

Risk Analysis and
Control for Industrial
Processes - Gas, Oil
and Chemicals
A System Perspective
for Assessing and
Avoiding Low-Probability,
High-Consequence Events
Hans Pasman
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Foreword
At the outset, I must say that this volume by Professor Hans Pasman on “Risk
Analysis andControl for Industrial Processes,ASystem PerspectiveforAssessing
and Avoiding Low Probability, High Consequence Events,” is a very timely and
much needed treatise. It is even more important given the need for process safety
and sustainable development, and the need for a rational and constructive
approach to risk assessment, risk management, and control against the backdrop
of globalization.
Professor Pasman has been a visionary and trailblazer in the development
and application of new methods and approaches in various areas of process
safety and risk assessment. Over more than two decades of our professional
association and friendship, I have always been impressed by his clarity of
thought and great depth of expertise. This book is another indicator of Professor
Pasman’s stellar contributions to the theory and practice of the diverse and com-
plex field of risk assessment.
The hunger for energy and the need for chemical products continue to fuel the
growth of the chemical and petrochemical industries. Consequently, the risks and
thehazardsassociatedwiththegrowthcontinue,andthechallengesposedbytech-
nology, scale, and intensity of operations grows and changes. With the increasing
complexity of chemical processes, interdependent chemical infrastructure, and the
need for considering diverse issues such as safety, environment, cost, and social
andculturalfactors,challengestoprocesssafetyandriskassessmentcannolonger
besolvedbysimpleapproaches.Processsafetyisatacrossroadswithsystemsen-
gineering,complexsystems,andengineeringfor sustainabledevelopment.Assess-
ments needed to address process safety challenges most often span a complex
systemrequiringtheapplicationofsophisticatedsystemsanalysis.Acomplexsys-
tems approach allows the study of parts of a system that taken together cause the
whole system to behave in a certain manner and how that behavior interacts with
its environment.
Process safety is very closely linked to sustainable development. Risk assess-
ments in the twenty-first century must bring together elements of manufacturing,
design, and sustainable engineering in an integrated form. Interwoven through
this new paradigm is the consideration of risk in every aspect. Another important
aspect of risk assessments is the ability to deal with low probabilityehigh conse-
quence events.
ProfessorPasmanhasbeensuccessfulintakingarefreshingandpoignantlookat
processsafetyandriskmanagement;hehasappliedasystemsapproachinaholistic
mannerfortheanalysisandcontrolofrisksinherenttotheoperationsoftheprocess-
ingindustryandtheirproducts.Headdressesrisksinthechemicalindustry,process-
ingofenergycarrierssuchasoilandgas,metalandfoodprocessing,andstorageand
transportationofhazardousmaterials.Thebookalsoprovidesaverycomprehensive
reviewofmethods used overtheyearstounderstandandmanage risks.Isincerely
xi
xii Foreword
believethatthebookhasopenedupanewvistaandperspectiveonmethodological
improvements, necessary in the ever-increasing complexity of safe manufacturing
anddistribution inacompetitiveworld.
M. Sam Mannan
RegentsProfessor and Director
Mary Kay O’ConnorProcessSafety Center
TexasA&MUniversity
CollegeStation,Texas,USA
Preface
Meanwhile,whenthesunrises,thefogwillnotbeharmful,
dfreetranslationofDanielChodowiecki’sexplanationofhisetchingsymbolizingthe
Enlightenment(1791)
SCOPE, MOTIVATION, OBJECTIVES, AND CONTENTS
OF THE BOOK
Theexistenceofmankindonthisworldinthepresentmagnitudeandgrowthandata
reasonablelevelofcomfortisonlyphysicallypossiblethankstotheprocessindustry
providingusenergyandfuels,constructionandelectronicmaterials,fertilizersand
food, textiles, pharmaceuticals, coatings, drinking water, and so forth. This depen-
dence will further grow, certainly when the standard of living in the developing
countries reaches that of developed ones. However, industrialization comes with
certain risks. Most dreadful are risks of high consequence, low probability events
involving hazardous materials, which can be widely ranging in nature and effect.
Manyexamplesofmajoraccidenthazardshavealreadybeenobserved.Highconse-
quencemeanscatastrophiclosses,sometimeswithhugelossofhumanlifeincluding
various kinds of other harm, and losses to the means, infrastructures, and environ-
mentsonwhichourlivesdepend.Thehumanbodyisrathervulnerabletomechan-
icalimpactandshock,extremetemperatures,andalonglistofgaseous,liquid,and
solid substances that over certain concentration thresholds are lethally toxic to our
system. We do not need to mention high intensities or doses of heat, nuclear, and
electro-magnetic radiation. Walking into an enclosurewith low oxygen concentra-
tion in the air is not healthy as well and may cause acute death. On the other
hand, low probability of occurrence is very low. Indeed, the considered event may
not happen in our lifetime. Measured in a probability over a certain time duration
the event may be not less frequent than the impact of a comet, but this does not
mean it cannot show up; it still can happen tomorrow! Yet if its precursor trail is
detected, we gain the opportunity to influence and reduce its probability of
occurrence.
Risk analysis as an approach and collection of methods to foster safe ways of
achievingproductiongoalshasdevelopedsincethe1960s.Ithasrootsinthenuclear
power community of academia, regulators, and industry and has spread to various
engineering disciplines and beyond to management, medicine, economy, and
finance. Basically, nuclear power risk analysts founded the leading forum of Prob-
abilisticSafetyAssessmentandManagementconferencesoperatingsincetheearly
1990s.EvenmoregeneralandperhapslesstechnicalorientedaretheaimsoftheSo-
cietyforRiskAnalysis,whichisactiveinorganizingmeetingsinvariouspartsofthe
world. Risk management practice applying the methods of risk analysis became a
xiii
xiv Preface
must in the many aspects of business life and finance, and evenfurther evolved to
risk governanceofcompanyboards and governments.
Theprocessindustry,though,initsearlydevelopmentwasplaguedbymishaps
from sometimes unknown chemical and physical mechanisms, and it was keen to
establish safe approaches. Beginning in the 1960s under the auspices of chemical
engineeringinstitutions,losspreventionsymposiahavebeenorganizedintheUnited
StatesandEurope,andsomeyearslaterinAsia.Thesesymposiahavebeeninstru-
mentalindevelopingconceptsandmethodsforhazardandriskanalysis,andknow-
howforoptimalorganizationandsafetymanagement,whileadoptingelementsfrom
elsewhere.Theystillgivemuchattentiontosharingknowledgeonmaterialproper-
ties,damagingmechanismsduetospillsandunintentionalreleases,andpreventive
andprotectivemeasures.
Thisbookendeavorstoaddressallthoseleadingorbeingemployedintheindus-
tryandthoseinvolvedincareforsafetyoftheindustrywhopreferanoverviewand
to see a timeline of developments. The book is intended especially to address stu-
dents, in particular engineers, and to challenge them to advance the field further.
Hopefully, the overview it offers will also be consulted by policy and decision
makers, as it shows in risk prediction the strengths and weaknesses of science and
engineering.Forthosewhoarelesstechnicallyinterested,eachchapterispreceded
by asummary.
Thebookismeantasacontributiontoenhanceprocesssafetyandriskandun-
certaintymanagement;ittriestoapplyasystemapproachandtocoverinaholistic
waytheanalysisandcontrolofrisksinherenttotheoperationsoftheprocessingin-
dustryandtheirproducts.Itthereforefocusesonthechemicalindustry,processing
of energy carriers such as oil and gas, metal and foodstuff processing, and storage
and transportation of hazardous materials. It briefly reviews experiences collected
over the years and existing methods to understand and manage risks. The main
aim is, however, to open a further future perspective of methodological improve-
ments,necessaryintheever-increasingcomplexityofgettingproductssafelyman-
ufactured and distributed in a competitiveworld. Knowledge of the human factor,
organizationalandtechnicalaspectsshallbemergedandinteractioninasociotech-
nical system mustbe analyzed for improved risk control toavert mishaps.
Necessarily,thebookhasitslimits.Itdoesnotprovideacompletedetailedover-
viewofallthathasbeenwrittenaboutthesubjectinatechnicalsenseasthatisthe
objectiveofLees’LossPreventionintheProcessIndustries,noteveninacondensed
wayasinLees’ProcessSafetyEssentials.Thelatterbookiscertainlyveryusefulfor
thosewhowanttoknowmoreoncertainaspects.But,thisbookselectsandbriefly
summarizesknowledgeonmajorhazardsandacuteeffectsinabalancedwayonall
those aspects that are of significance for fostering process and plant safety. This
approach is followed with regard to both technical and organizational aspects,
includingregulatoryandhumanfactorones.Allrelevantaspectsofwhichtheauthor
isawareofaretoucheduponwithsomereferencesforthosewhodesirefurtherde-
tails.Thebookisinpartestablishedmaterial,yetdelvesintonewdevelopmentsand
methods up until the end of 2014 with a promise for improved future risk control.
Preface xv
Withregard toexamplesandregulatoryaspects,mostofwhatisdiscussedalready
occurs inor is applicable to the United Statesand Europe. The issue of security is
only mentioned in a few instances because many generic aspects of it are covered
by process safety and risk reduction measures. Unfortunately, we must live with
manyacronyms.Thesehavebeennotedanddefinedrepeatedly;Ihopethisishelpful
butnotirritating.
Theprocesssafety“building”hasmanydoorsandroomsfilledwithexperience,
system engineering, riskassessment,management, andhuman factors. Ihavetried
to connect the rooms, because so far the field consists largely of a collection of
specialties.
Hans J.Pasman
Acknowledgments
Thoughtsaboutwhatshallbewrittenandhowtowritethemneedreactionfromcol-
leagues with criticalminds. I wasfortunate tofind friends who did notnecessarily
agreewithwhatIhaddrafted.ThetextwithaninitialDutchflavorwasfirstAmeri-
canized and then converted to EnglisheEnglish but kept in American spelling.
Meanwhile,commentsweremadeandsuggestionsgivenwithregardtothecontent,
improvingitsquality.
Firstly,IwouldliketoacknowledgetheinvaluablesupportofDrWilliam(Bill)
J.Rogers,whoteachesriskmanagementandprobabilisticmethodologyattheMary
Kay O’ConnorProcess Safety Center (MKOPSC) of the Artie McFerrin Chemical
Engineering Department of Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas. Bill
was inspiratory, a theory provider, and supporter in systems approach to process
safety and predictiverisk analysis. Dealing with uncertainty iskeyinthisproblem
field.Ienjoyedthemanydiscussions(andalsotheconcertsheorganized).Secondly,
Dr Simon P. Waldram of Waldram Consultants Ltd, also a research fellow at
MKOPSC, formerly a professor at the University of London, was my chemical-
physical conscience. Apart from making critical comments, he also gave the text
a true English touch. Dr Paul H. J. J. Swuste, associate professor of the Safety
ScienceGroupoftheDelftUniversityofTechnology,theNetherlands,withaback-
ground in biochemistry but extensive experience in occupational safety and safety
management, supported me in the long-term main lines of safety thinking and
kept me straight in the human factor and organizational aspects. Further, thanks
toMs.TrishKerin,BEng,DirectorIChemESafetyCenter,InstitutionofChemical
Engineers,inMelbourne,whoafterherindustrialexperiencemadeveryusefulprac-
tical comments on the manuscript.
Inaddition,IwouldliketothankDrM.SamMannan,PE,CSP,DHC,Directorof
MKOPSC and Regents Professor at Texas A&M University, for his moral support
andDrSonnySachdevaandJoshuaRichardsonofMKOPSCwhomanagedandob-
tained the copyright permissions.
Lastly,Iwanttothankmywife,Ina,mypartnerinlife,whohassteadfastlystuck
bymyside,aswellasmychildrenandgrandkidswhomissedseeing“opa”forquite
someperiods.
I graduated in chemical technology and started my career at Shell, but during
militaryservicewastransferredtoTNO,theDutchNationalResearchorganization.
Apart from defense research, I necessarily learned much about process safety by
investigating numerous disastrous accidents in the late 1960s and early 1970s by
directing development of experimental methods and performance of risky experi-
ments of various kinds to explain what happened in these accidents. I have been a
member and then 10years chairman of the European (EFCE) Working Party on
LossPreventionsinceitsbeginningin1972,aswellashelpedtofoundtheEuropean
ProcessSafetyCentre.Aswell,IthankallmyformercolleaguesatTNO,attheDelft
University of Technology where I have been teaching chemical risk management,
xvii
xviii Acknowledgments
andoftheWorkingPartyfortheircooperationandsupport.Althoughwehavenowa
wealthofcomputationalmodelsprovidingthebasisofsystemriskanalysis,itisun-
fortunate that young generations can only obtain limited (but safe!) experimental
experience,bothinthechemicalandphysicalsensesbutalsoinhumanandorgani-
zationalfunctioning.Experimentingisexpensiveandmodelsareawayofstudyinga
problem. But, a model remains only a model that must be tested, and the mecha-
nismsthreateningprocesssafetyarecomplexandvarywidely.Theloomingmishap
isalways hidden inthe tails ofthe distributions.
Finally,IwouldliketoadmitthatifMs.FionaGeraghtyofElsevierhadnotchal-
lenged me, I would never have started writing this book. My hope is that it will
contributetoa soundunderstanding ofhow tomanage industrialprocessrisks.
Hans J.Pasman
CHAPTER
1
Industrial Processing
Systems, Their Products
and Hazards
Accidentswillhappen,butforewarnedisforearmed.
Eighteenth-centuryEnglishproverb
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
Dealing with high-consequence, low-probability process industry risk sources,
exposing their immediate environment to major hazards and acute effects, ought
to start with discussing the dreadful tragedy caused by an accident in the Union
Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, in 1984. It is certainly not the purpose here to
describethiscatastropheinanydetail,butthislargestofallindustrialdisastersshall
bementioned.Atoxiccloudofmethyl-isocyanateescapedfromastoragetankafter
itwasheatedupinadecompositionreactionwithcleanwater(aso-calledrunaway
reaction). The water entered the tank by accident. Due to the low wind speed and
relativelycoolnightconditions,thegrowingcloudstayedlownearthegroundwhile
slowly drifting from the plant to an adjacent neighborhood of migrant makeshift
housing in which many slept. The cloud caused thousands of fatalities and many
moresufferedfromtoxiceffects,someofwhichcontinuetothisday.Forcomplete
detailsofthisaccident,seeLees’LossPreventionintheProcessIndustries1orbooks
especially about the case such as by Shrivastava2 or Pietersen.3 The underlying
nontechnical causes of the disaster are of a nature that still may be found today,
such as economic slump, a shrinking market, competition pressure, cost cuts, an
almost endless row of short-staying top managers, downsizing of personnel and a
shortageofcompetentemployees,badmaintenance,miscommunication,neglected
trainingofsafetyandemergencyprocedures,andalocalgovernmentnothavingthe
strength to maintain a strict policy with respect to industrial safety and environ-
mental protection. Fortunately, over the years our know-how to arrange preventive
and protective measures has grown tremendously, and this book wants to demon-
strate what has been achieved as well as what methods we can further develop to
copewiththecomplexityoftechnologyandorganization.Weneedgoodsthatindus-
tryproduces,butethicsrequirethateverythingshallbedonetopreventharmofem-
ployeesor the public.
Inthischapter,aquick“tourd’horizon”willbemadequalitativelytoshowthe
effectsofvarioushazardousphenomenathatunderlietherisksofprocessingsystems
1
RiskAnalysisandControlforIndustrialProcesses-Gas,OilandChemicals.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-800057-1.00001-8
Copyright©2015ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.