Revolutions in Book Publishing DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0001 Other Palgrave Pivot titles Dietrich Orlow: Socialist Reformers and the Collapse of the German Democratic Republic Gwendolyn Audrey Foster: Disruptive Feminisms: Raced, Gendered, and Classed Bodies in Film Catherine A. Lugg: US Public Schools and the Politics of Queer Erasure Olli Pyyhtinen: More-than-Human Sociology: A New Sociological Imagination Jane Hemsley-Brown and Izhar Oplatka: Higher Education Consumer Choice Arthur Asa Berger: Gizmos or: The Electronic Imperative: How Digital Devices have Transformed American Character and Culture Antoine Vauchez: Democratizing Europe Cassie Smith-Christmas: Family Language Policy: Maintaining an Endangered Language in the Home Liam Magee: Interwoven Cities Alan Bainbridge: On Becoming an Education Professional: A Psychosocial Exploration of Developing an Education Professional Practice Bruce Moghtader: Foucault and Educational Ethics Carol Rittner and John K. Roth: Teaching about Rape in War and Genocide Robert H. Blank: Cognitive Enhancement: Social and Public Policy Issues Cathy Hannabach: Blood Cultures: Medicine, Media, and Militarisms Adam Bennett, G. Russell Kincaid, Peter Sanfey, and Max Watson: Economic and Policy Foundations for Growth in South East Europe: Remaking the Balkan Economy Shaun May: Rethinking Practice as Research and the Cognitive Turn Eoin Price: ‘Public’ and ‘Private’ Playhouses in Renaissance England: The Politics of Publication David Elliott: Green Energy Futures: A Big Change for the Good Susan Nance: Animal Modernity: Jumbo the Elephant and the Human Dilemma Alessandra Perri: Innovation and the Multinational Firm: Perspectives on Foreign Subsidiaries and Host Locations DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0001 Revolutions in Book Publishing: The Effects of Digital Innovation on the Industry Lall Ramrattan Instructor, University of California, USA and Michael Szenberg Distinguished Professor of Economics and Chair of Business and Economics, Touro College and University System, USA DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0001 revolutions in book publishing Copyright © Lall Ramrattan and Michael Szenberg, 2016. Foreword © Benjamin M. Friedman, 2016 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2016 978-1-137-57620-0 All rights reserved. First published in 2016 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978-1-137-57621-7 PDF ISBN: 978-1-349-88753-8 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. First edition: 2016 www.palgrave.com/pivot DOI: 10.1007/978-1-137-57621-7 To my late mother and father-in-law, Sundermonie and Munisamy Munian from Bath Settlement, West Coast Berbice, Guyana. I thank them for their love, enthusias- tic encouragement and generous support in words and deeds in my search for knowledge. I wish their souls eternal peace and happiness. –L.R. B”H Dedicated to the memory of my sister, Esther, for bring- ing me to these shores; to the memory of my parents, Henoch for his wisdom and my mother, Sara, for giving birth to me—twice; to my wife Miriam and my children Naomi and Avi, their spouses Marc and Tova; to my grandchildren, Elki and Chaim, Batya, Chanoch, Devorah and Nachum, Ephraim, Ayala, Jacob, and to my great-grandchildren, Chanoch and Fegila. And to the righteous German officer who took my immediate family to a hiding place just days before the last trans- port to Auschwitz, where most of my family perished. –M.S. DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0001 Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables viii Foreword x Benjamin M. Friedman Preface and Acknowledgments xiv 1 General Introduction 1 2 Overview of Price and Nonprice Competition 18 3 Consumption Aspects: Empirical Findings 50 4 Production Aspects: Employment, Manpower, and Productivity 72 5 Distribution Aspects of the Industry 94 6 Printing and Publishing 108 7 Internet Technological Aspects of the Industry 120 Conclusions 131 References 134 Index 146 vi DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0001 List of Figures 1.1 Amazon versus Naics 511 R&D, 1998–2007 ($m) 16 2.1 Price and nonprice decisions 19 2.2 Supply and demand for books 32 2.3 Product versus spatial differentiation of the e-book market 37 2.4 Dynamic view of the book industry 39 2.5 The Chain Store Paradox 42 3.1 Book category share, 1985–2002 55 7.1 Outline of issues in Internet technology 123 7.2 Book industry value chain: business to consumer 127 DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0002 vii List of Tables 1.1 Industry classification 7 1.2 Long-term growth, 1929–1963 7 1.3 Rivalry data (firms’ annual reports) 13 1.4 Advertising rivalry results: one firm’s generic reaction to the advertising outlay of its rivals 14 1.5 Sales and losses for borders, 1996–2009 15 1.6 Franchise rivalry results: one firm’s generic reaction to the advertising outlay of its rivals 15 1.7 Companies’ financials 17 2.1 Internet revenue and cost data 25 3.1 Long-term trends in the book publishing industry 52 3.2 Translog regression: nonseparable results, 1985–2002 57 3.3 Own elasticity by book categories estimated from regression results 59 3.4 Own elasticity and Lerner power index based on regression results 59 3A.1 US book stores (NAICS 451211) sales, 2000–current ($m) 62 3A.2 Time series data for the book publishing industry 63 3A.3 Historic trade trend data 1992–2006 ($ths.), paper and publishing products 64 3A.4 Hardback, paperback, and mass media prices 65 3A.5 Regression analysis of growth trends 66 3A.6 Book by book categories, 1985–2002 ($m) 71 3A.7 Revenues of book categories, 1985–2002: $m from Greco book 71 viii DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0003 List of Tables ix 4.1 Productivity explained by wages, 1989–2007 BLS data 74 4.2 Industry total scale economy, 2004–2006 77 4.3 Production function book publishing industry sample, 1998–2007 78 4.4 Translog approximation of CES production function, BISG quantity, and compustat capital data 81 4A.1 Unemployment rate, nonagricultural private wage, and salary workers, publishing, except Internet: 2000–current 83 4A.2 Book publishers: NAICS 51113, average hourly earnings of production workers 83 4A.3 Industry technical data 84 4A.4 NAICS 511130, book publishers. Annual percentage change of industry productivity data, 1988–current 85 4A.5 Productivity, costs, and output indices, 1987–current 86 4A.6 Regression results for productivity on wages 86 4A.7 (Additional data) Regression results for productivity on wages 89 4A.8 Results use for translog/CES model of table T2-4 system 91 4A.9 GAMS model for the extraction of substitution parameters 92 5.1 Distribution aspects of book publishing 98 5.2 HHI calculation 98 5.3 Sales on concentration, SUR system estimates, 1963–2007 (available concentration data) 100 5.4 Size distribution of establishments, census data: 1992, 1997, 2002 102 5.5 Distribution of general, specialty, and college books, number of establishments by employees: 1997 versus 2002 103 5.6 Sales–employees distribution 104 6.1 Triad VAT and GST tax rates in percent 111 6.2 Historic rate trends ($ths dollars) in the PPI 112 6.3 CGE benefits due to improved allocation and policy mixes 114 6.4 PPI for major countries in the Triad regions 116 6.5 TAA certification and denial 118 6.6 Global computer market information and communication technology (ICT) spending 119 7.1 Five firms’ share of toll revenues 125 DOI: 10.1057/9781137576217.0003