Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee. Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation

157 Pages·32.874 MB·English

SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION
Review of U.S.
H S
UMAN PACEFLIGHT
Plans Committee
Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee 1
SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION
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SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION
“We choose...to do [these] things,
not because they are easy, but because they are hard...”
John F. Kennedy
September 12, 1962
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SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION
Table of Contents
Preface ........ ...... . ........... ...................................................................................................................................... 7
Executive Summary ..... ...................................................................................................................................... 9
Chapter 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 19
Chapter 2.0 U.S. Human Spaceflight: Historical Review ............................................................................ 27
Chapter 3.0 Goals and Future Destinations for Exploration ........................................................................ 33
3.1 Goals for Exploration ............................................................................................................... 33
3.2 Overview of Destinations and Approach .................................................................................. 33
3.3 Mars First .................................................................................................................................. 35
3.4 Moon First ................................................................................................................................ 37
3.5 The Flexible Path to Mars ......................................................................................................... 40
3.6 Summary of Strategies for Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit ........................................... 43

Chapter 4.0 Current Human Spaceflight Programs ...................................................................................... 47
4.1 The Space Shuttle .................................................................................................................... 47
4.2 The International Space Station ............................................................................................... 51
4.3 The Constellation Program ....................................................................................................... 57
Chapter 5.0 Launch to Low-Earth Orbit and Beyond .................................................................................. 63
5.1 Evaluation Methodology for Launch Vehicles ......................................................................... 63
5.2 Heavy Lift to Low-Earth Orbit and Beyond ............................................................................. 64
5.3 Crew Launch to Low-Earth Orbit ............................................................................................ 68
5.4 Additional Issues in Launcher Selection .................................................................................. 72
Chapter 6.0 Program Options and Evaluation .............................................................................................. 77
6.1 Evaluation Criteria .................................................................................................................... 77
6.2 Key Decisions and Integrated Options ..................................................................................... 79
6.3 Integrated Options Constrained to the FY 2010 Budget ........................................................... 84
6.4 Moon First Integrated Options Fit to the Less-Constrained Budget ......................................... 85
6.5 Flexible Path Integrated Options Fit to the Less-Constrained Budget ..................................... 91
6.6 Comparisons Across Integrated Options .................................................................................. 94
Chapter 7.0 Critical Technologies for Sustainable Exploration ................................................................... 99
7.1 Fundamental Unknowns ........................................................................................................... 99
7.2 Propellant Storage and Transfer in Space ................................................................................. 100
7.3 In Situ Propellant Production and Transport ............................................................................. 101
7.4 Mars Orbit to Surface Transportation ....................................................................................... 102
7.5 Advanced Space Propulsion ..................................................................................................... 102
7.6 Technology Summary ............................................................................................................... 103
Chapter 8.0 Partnerships ............................................................................................................................... 105
8.1 International Partnerships ......................................................................................................... 105
8.2 U.S. Intra-Government Partnerships ......................................................................................... 107
Chapter 9.0 Concluding Observations .......................................................................................................... 111
9.1 Establishing Goals .................................................................................................................... 111
9.2 Matching Resources and Goals ................................................................................................ 111
9.3 NASA Management Challenges ............................................................................................... 112
9.4 Systems Engineering ................................................................................................................ 113
9.5 Procuring Systems .................................................................................................................... 113
9.6 Managing the Balance of Human and Robotic Spaceflight ...................................................... 114
9.7 Concluding Summary ............................................................................................................... 115
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SEEKING A HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT PROGRAM WORTHY OF A GREAT NATION
Appendices
A. Committee Member Biographies .............................................................................................. 117
B. Committee Staff ........................................................................................................................ 123
C. Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Statement of Task ................................................ 127
D. Charter of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee .................................... 131
E. List of Full Committee Meetings and Locations ...................................................................... 135
F. Briefers and Committee Contacts ............................................................................................. 137
G. Communications and Public Engagement ................................................................................ 141
H. Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 145

Glossary Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................... 153
Back Cover: The Space Shuttle as it moves through the fog on its way down the 3 1/2–mile crawlerway enroute
to Launch Pad 39A. Source: NASA
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Plans Committee
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Preface
Over the next 10 years, NASA is scheduled to devote $99 ing profile in the FY 2010 President’s budget would not be
billion to the nation’s human spaceflight program. In rec- exceeded. In subsequent discussions between the Commit-
ognition of the magnitude of these planned expenditures, tee chairman and members of the White House staff, it was
coupled with questions about the status of the current hu- agreed that at least two program options would be presented
man spaceflight program, the White House Office of Sci- that comply with the above constraints; however, if those
ence and Technology Policy, as part of the due diligence of a options failed to fully satisfy the stated study objectives, ad-
new administration, called for an independent review of the ditional options could be identified by the Committee. No
present and planned effort. Two conditions framed this re- other bounds were placed on the Committee’s work.
quest: all ongoing human spaceflight work by NASA and its
contractors was to continue uninterrupted during the review The Committee wishes to acknowledge the highly profes-
process; and the review team’s findings were to be available sional and responsive support provided to it by the staff of
90 days from the Committee’s formal establishment and a NASA, as well as the staff of the Aerospace Corporation,
formal report be published thereafter, in recognition of the which provided independent analysis in support of the re-
demands of the federal budget preparation cycle. view. Aerospace worked under the direction of the Commit-
tee, and all findings in this report are those of the Committee.
The Committee established to conduct the review comprised Individuals to whom the Committee is particularly indebted
10 members with diverse professional backgrounds, includ- for sharing their views are listed in Appendix B.
ing scientists, engineers, astronauts, educators, executives
of established and new aerospace firms, former presidential The Committee members appreciate the trust that has been
appointees, and a retired Air Force General. The Committee placed in them to conduct an impartial review that could
was charged with conducting an independent review of the have a major impact on the nation’s human spaceflight pro-
current program of record and providing alternatives to that gram, human lives and America’s image in the world. We
program (as opposed to making a specific recommendation) view this as a very great responsibility.
that would ensure that “the nation is pursuing the best trajec-
tory for the future of human spaceflight—one that is safe,
innovative, affordable and sustainable.”

Initially, the directive to the Committee was that it conduct October 2009
its inquiry with the assumption that operation of the Space Washington, DC
Shuttle would terminate in 2010 and that the 10-year fund-
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executive Summary
The U.S. human spaceflight program appears to be on an How will we explore to deliver the greatest benefit to the
unsustainable trajectory. It is perpetuating the perilous prac- nation? Planning for a human spaceflight program should
tice of pursuing goals that do not match allocated resources. begin with a choice about its goals—rather than a choice
Space operations are among the most demanding and un- of possible destinations. Destinations should derive from
forgiving pursuits ever undertaken by humans. It really is goals, and alternative architectures may be weighed against
rocket science. Space operations become all the more dif- those goals. There is now a strong consensus in the United
ficult when means do not match aspirations. Such is the States that the next step in human spaceflight is to travel be-
case today. yond low-Earth orbit. This should carry important benefits
to society, including: driving technological innovation; de-
The nation is facing important decisions on the future of hu- veloping commercial industries and important national ca-
man spaceflight. Will we leave the close proximity of low- pabilities; and contributing to our expertise in further explo-
Earth orbit, where astronauts have circled since 1972, and ration. Human exploration can contribute appropriately to
explore the solar system, charting a path for the eventual the expansion of scientific knowledge, particularly in areas
expansion of human civilization into space? If so, how will such as field geology, and it is in the interest of both science
we ensure that our exploration delivers the greatest benefit and human spaceflight that a credible and well-rationalized
to the nation? Can we explore with reasonable assurances strategy of coordination between them be developed. Cru-
of human safety? Can the nation marshal the resources to cially, human spaceflight objectives should broadly align
embark on the mission? with key national objectives.
Whatever space program is ultimately selected, it must be These more tangible benefits exist within a larger context.
matched with the resources needed for its execution. How Exploration provides an opportunity to demonstrate space
can we marshal the necessary resources? There are actually leadership while deeply engaging international partners; to
more options available today than in 1961, when President inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers; and
Kennedy challenged the nation to “commit itself to the goal, to shape human perceptions of our place in the universe.
before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and The Committee concludes that the ultimate goal of human
returning him safely to the Earth.” exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the
solar system. This is an ambitious goal, but one worthy of
First, space exploration has become a global enterprise. U.S. leadership in concert with a broad range of internation-
Many nations have aspirations in space, and the combined al partners.
annual budgets of their space programs are comparable to
NASA’s. If the United States is willing to lead a global pro- The Committee’s task was to review the U.S. plans for hu-
gram of exploration, sharing both the burden and benefit of man spaceflight and to offer possible alternatives. In doing
space exploration in a meaningful way, significant accom- so, it assessed the programs within the current human space-
plishments could follow. Actively engaging international flight portfolio; considered capabilities and technologies a
partners in a manner adapted to today’s multi-polar world future program might require; and considered the roles of
could strengthen geopolitical relationships, leverage global commercial industry and our international partners in this
financial and technical resources, and enhance the explora- enterprise. From these deliberations, the Committee devel-
tion enterprise. oped five integrated alternatives for the U.S. human space-
flight program, including an executable version of the cur-
Second, there is now a burgeoning commercial space indus- rent program. The considerations and the five alternatives
try. If we craft a space architecture to provide opportunities are summarized in the pages that follow.
to this industry, there is the potential—not without risk—that
the costs to the government would be reduced. Finally, we Key Questions to Guide the Plan for
are also more experienced than in 1961, and able to build on human sPacefliGht
that experience as we design an exploration program. If, af-
ter designing cleverly, building alliances with partners, and The Committee identified the following questions that, if
engaging commercial providers, the nation cannot afford to answered, would form the basis of a plan for U.S. human
fund the effort to pursue the goals it would like to embrace, spaceflight:
it should accept the disappointment of setting lesser goals.
1. What should be the future of the Space Shuttle?
Can we explore with reasonable assurances of human safety? 2. What should be the future of the International Space
Human space travel has many benefits, but it is an inherently Station (ISS)?
dangerous endeavor. Human safety can never be absolutely 3. On what should the next heavy-lift launch vehicle be
assured, but throughout this report, safety is treated as a sine based?
qua non. It is not discussed in extensive detail because any 4. How should crews be carried to low-Earth orbit?
concepts falling short in human safety have simply been 5. What is the most practicable strategy for exploration
eliminated from consideration. beyond low-Earth orbit?
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