Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report PDF
Preview Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS This PDF is available at http://www.nap.edu/24712 SHARE Ū ſ Ŷ Þ Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report DETAILS 132 pages | 8.5 x 11 | PAPERBACK ISBN 978-0-309-45664-7 | DOI: 10.17226/24712 CONTRIBUTORS GET THIS BOOK Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and FIND RELATED TITLES Medicine Visit the National Academies Press at NAP.edu and login or register to get: – Access to free PDF downloads of thousands of scientific reports – 10% off the price of print titles – Email or social media notifications of new titles related to your interests – Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. (Request Permission) Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Committee to Review the Draft Climate Science Special Report Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies A Report of Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award numbers NNH14CK78B and NNH14CK79D. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45664-7 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45664-9 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/24712 Additional copies of this publication are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: https://doi.org/ 10.17226/24712. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Reports document the evidence-based consensus of an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and committee deliberations. Reports are peer reviewed and are approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Proceedings chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other convening event. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and have not been endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit nationalacademies.org/whatwedo. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE DRAFT CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT PHILIP W. MOTE (Chair), Oregon State University, Corvallis SUSAN K. AVERY, Avery Consulting, LLC, Boulder, Colorado BENJAMIN BOND-LAMBERTY, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Lab, College Park, Maryland ROBERT M. DeCONTO, University of Massachusetts, Amherst ANDREW G. DICKSON, University of California, San Diego PHILIP B. DUFFY, Woods Hole Research Center, Massachusetts CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, California JAMES L. KINTER, III, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, University of California, Los Angeles LORETTA J. MICKLEY, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts DANIEL J. VIMONT, University of Wisconsin, Madison National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff APRIL MELVIN, Study Director AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins SHUYI S. CHEN (Vice Chair), University of Miami, Florida CECILIA BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, New York WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, Colorado MARY GLACKIN, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Washington, D.C. LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York MAURA HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, Massachusetts EVERETTE JOSEPH, SUNY University at Albany, New York RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, North Carolina JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Kresge Foundation, Troy, Michigan JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway ALLISON STEINER, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DUANE WALISER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California Polar Research Board Liaison JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, Massachusetts National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director DAVID ALLEN, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer APRIL MELVIN, Associate Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Senior Program Assistant vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report: CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia GABRIELE HEGERL, University of Edinburgh, UK BRIAN HOSKINS, Imperial College London, UK RICHARD J. JACKSON, University of California, Los Angeles JEAN JOUZEL, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif sur Yvette, France JEFF SEVERINGHAUS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA KEVIN E. TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Michael R. Ladisch, Purdue University, and Kenneth H. Brink, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Review of the Draft Climate Science Special Report Table of Contents Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 I Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 II Synthesis of Comments on the Draft Climate Science Special Report ....................................... 5 III Comments on Each Chapter of the Draft Climate Science Special Report ............................... 13 References ................................................................................................................................... 57 Appendices A Line Comments ...................................................................................................................... 63 B Statement of Task ................................................................................................................. 117 C Committee Biographies ........................................................................................................ 119 ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. 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