Return of the Balkans - Challenges to European Integration and U.S. Disengagement (2013)

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RETURN OF THE BALKANS:
CHALLENGES TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
AND U.S. DISENGAGEMENT
Janusz Bugajski
May 2013
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Research for this monograph was conducted partly in Wash-
ington, DC, including a thorough appraisal of relevant literature
on both sides of the Atlantic. It also entailed regular visits to the
Western Balkan countries for meetings with local analysts and
government officials. In particular, I would like to thank Besian
Bocka, my former administrative and research assistant at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
DC; and Dovile Sukyte, my former research assistant, for their
invaluable help by providing me with voluminous amounts of
reading material.
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ISBN 1-58487-570-4
iii

CONTENTS
Foreword ......................................................................ix
About the Author .....................................................xiii
Summary .....................................................................xv
I. INTRODUCTION: UNCERTAIN
FUTURES ............................................................1
II. SERBIAN ASPIRATIONS ................................7
Nationalist Undercurrents. ...............................8
Serbia vs. Kosova .............................................12
Partition Proposals ..........................................18
Kosova’s Violent Prospects ............................21
Serbia vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina ......................26
Serbia vs. Montenegro ....................................28
Vojvodina Spotlight ........................................32
III. BOSNIAK NATIONAL REVIVAL ................34
Stalled State Building ......................................34
Ethnic and Civic Politics .................................37
Role of Radical Islam .......................................41
Separatist Maneuvers ......................................43
Regional Reflexes .............................................49
Dangers of Bosnia’s Division .........................52
The Sandzak Factor .........................................60
IV. REGIONAL ALBANIANISM ........................66
Albania’s Turmoil ............................................67
Nationalist Voices ............................................70
Kosova’s Aspirations ......................................73
Pan-Albanian Opportunities ..........................76
Presevo Valley Conflicts .................................83
Macedonian Pressures ....................................87
Montenegrin Dimensions ...............................89
Chameria vs. Epirus ........................................91
v
V. MACEDONIAN IMPASSE ............................96
Nationalist Resurgence ...................................97
Disputes with Greece ....................................101
Minority Frustrations ....................................104
Ethnic Escalation ............................................107
VI. INTERNATIONAL DEFICIENCIES ..........113
European Stagnation ....................................113
EU Leadership Deficit ...................................117
Nationalist Specters .......................................120
Weakening EU Magnetism ...........................122
Europe’s Softening Power ............................127
U.S. and NATO Downsizing ........................130
Russia’s Interventions ...................................134
VII. WEST BALKAN CONFLICTS: CAUSES
AND CONSEQUENCES .............................142
International Exclusion .................................143
European Union Shortcomings ..................143
Economic Distress..........................................144
Deficient State Building ................................144
Democracy Deficits ........................................145
Inadequate Leadership .................................145
Nationalist Surpluses ....................................146
Generational Challenges ...............................146
Conflict Scenario ............................................147
Pursuing Partition .........................................149
Armed Militancy. ...........................................150
Terrorist Threats ............................................151
Additional Conflicts ......................................152
Neighborhood Factors ..................................152
Russian Penetration .......................................153
Interstate Disputes .........................................153
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VIII. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ................154
Role of U.S. Military ......................................155
Primary Regional Objectives ........................158
Serbia-Kosova Relations ...............................160
Kosova’s Development .................................161
Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Functionality ...........162
Macedonia’s Progress ..................................164
Alternative Recommendation ......................164
POSTSCRIPT ............................................................165
ENDNOTES .............................................................166
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