Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium

71 Pages·1997·3.4 MB·English

by  U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Observer Panel

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REPORT OF THE OBSERVER
PANEL FOR THE
U.S.-JAPAN
EARTHQUAKE POLICY
SYMPOSIUM
U.S.-JapanRarthqiiakePolicySymposiumObserverPand
BoardonNaturalDisasters
CommissiononGeosciences, Environment, andResources
NationalResearchCouncil pR0Pc i
NATIONALACADEMYPRESS
Washington,D.C.
1997
NOTICE: Theprojectthatisthe subjectofthis reportwasapprovedby
theGoverningBoardofthe NationalResearchCouncil, whosemembers
are drawn from the councils ofthe National Academy ofSciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Instimte of Medicine. The
members ofthe panel responsible for the report were chosen fortheir
specialconq)etencesandwithregardforapptapnattbalance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to procedures approved by a Report Review Commitlee
consistiQg of members of the Natiaoal Academy of Sciences, the
NationalAcademyofEqgineeriog,andtheInsthuteofMedicme.
Support for this study was provided by the Federal Emergency
ManagementAgency.
Additionalcopiesofthisreportareavailablefrom:
BoardonNaturalDisasters
NationalResearchCouncil
NW
2101 ConstitutionAvenue,
Washington, DC20418
202-334-1964
ThecoverartforthisreportwascreatedbyCarrieMalloiy,agraduate
oftheCooperUnionfortheAdvancementofScienceandArt.Shetakes
manyofherdiemesforthenaturalworld, andshehasprovidedseveral
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techniques,andinks.
Copyright 1997 by die National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
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U.S.-JAPANEARTHQUAKE POLICY
SYMPOSIUMOBSERVERPANEL
WILFREDIWAN, Chair, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena
WILLIAMHALL, UniversityofIllinois, Urbana-Champaign
LUCILEJONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California
STEPHANIEH. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, LosAngeles, California
PAULSOMERVILLE,Woodward-ClydeFederalServices,Pasadena,
California
L. THOMASTOBIN,Tobin&Associates,MillVaUey,California
Staff
CHARLESMEADE,StudyDirector
SUSANSHERWIN,SeniorProjectAssi
m
Copytly1
BOARD ONNATURALDISASTERS
WILFREDIWAN, Chaa^, CalifomialostitiiteofTechnology,Pasadena
LLOYDCLUFF,PacificGasandEtoctricCompany, SanRancisco,
California
HENRYFALK, CentersforDiseaseControl, Atlanta, Georgia
LUCILEJONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, Califomia
JAMESKIMPEL, UniversityofOklahoma, Norman
HOWARDKUNREUTHER, UniversityofPennsylvania,Philadelphia
WALTERLYNN, CornellUniversity, Ithaca, NewYork
STEPHANIEH. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, LosAngeles,California
JOANNENIGG, UniversityofDelaware,Newark
DALLASPECK, U.S. GeologicalSurvey,Reston,Viiginia
RICHARDROTH, Northbrook,lUinois
HARVEYRYLAND,InsuianoeInstituteforProper^LossReduction,
Boston,Massachusetts
ELLISSTANLEY,Atlanta-FultonCountyEmergencyManagement
Agency,Atlanta,Geoigia
FRANKTHOMAS,Loudon,Tennessee
GILBERTWHITE,UniversityofColorado,Boulder
Staff
STEPHENPARKER, Director
CHARLES MEADE, SeniorProgramOfficer
GREGORYSYMMES, StaffOfficer
ANDREVARCHAVER, Consultant
SUSANSHERWIN,SeniorProjectAssistant
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COMMISSIONONGEOSCIENCES,
ENVIRONMENT,ANDRESOURCES
GEORGEM. HORNBERGER. Chair. UnhrosityofVirginia,
Charlottesville
PATRICKR. ATKINS,AluminumCompanyofAmerica, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
JAMESP. BRUCE, CanadianClimateProgramBoard,Ottawa,Ontario
WILLIAM L. FISHER, UniversityofTexas, Austin
JERRYF. FRANKLIN, UniversityofWashington, Seattle
DEBRAS. KNOPMAN, ProgressiveFoundation, Washington,D.C.
PERRYL. MCCARTY, StanfordUniversity,California
JUDITHE. MCDOWBLL,WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitudoo,
Massachusetts
S.GEORGEPHILANDER,PrincecoiiUniveisily,NewJen^
RAYMONDA.PRICE,Queen'sUniveisityatKliigstoii,Ontario
THOMASC.SCHELUNG,UniveisityofMaiyland,0>11^Park
ELLENK.SILBERGELD,UniversityofMaiylandMedicalSchool
Baltimore
VICTORIAJ.TSCHINKEL,LandersandParsons,Tallahassee,Florida
NationalResearchCouncilStaff
STEPHENRATTIEN, ExecutiveDirector
STEPHEND. PARKER, AssociateExecutiveDirector
MORGANGOPNIK, AssistantExecutiveDirector
GREGORYSYMMES, ReportsOfficer
JAMESMALLORY*AdministntiveOfficer
SANDIFTTZPATRICK,AdministrativeAssociate
MARQUTTASMITH,PCAnalystandProjectAssistant
V
Copytiyiuu,
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
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technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority
ofthechanergrantedtoitbytheCongressin 1863, theAcademyhas a
mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific
and technical matters. Dr.Bruce Alberts is piesideiit of the National
AcademyofSciences.
The National Acaden^ of Eogineeriog was established in
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The National Researdi Coundl was organizedby the National
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M
Academiesand theInstitute ofMedicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts andDr.
WilliamA. Wulfarechairman andinterimvicechairman, respectively,
oftheNationalResearchCouncil
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Contents
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
1
1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 BILATERALPROGRAMS 1
Existing Agreements, 7
NewCooperativeMechanismsfromtheEarthquakePolicy
Symposium, 11
Conclusions. 12
3 TOPICSFORPOLICYANDRFSKARCH 13
COLLABORATION
EarthquakeForecasting,Warning, andHazardZonation, 15
EarthquakeRiskAssessmentand Loss Estimation, 20
Earthquake ResistantDesign, Construction, Rehabilitation, and
RepairStandards, 24
EarthquakePreparation, Response, Recovery, and
Mitigation, 27
Conclusions.27
4 CONCLUSIONSAND RECOMMENDATIONS 2S
Policy Leadership, 30
Strategic Plaiming, 30
Measuring Success, 31
ExpandedDialogue, 31
Function-to-FunctionCollaboration. 31
LiaisonContact, 32
Funding, 32
APPENDIXA! Correspondence 35
APPENDIXB: AmericanandJaiKineseInvitees 39
APPFJMDIXC: SymposiumAgenda 49
APPENDIXD: JointStatement 59
VII
Cc
Executive SumMlmliary
From September 16-18, 1996, a U.S.-JapanEarthquake Policy
Syiiq)osium was held at the National Acaden^ of Sciences in
Washington, DC. Hosted by the Federal Emergen^ Management
Agency (FEMA), themeeting involvedhighrlevel lepresentatiyes from
both the United Stales and Japanese govenmients as pait of a new
bilateral initiattve for cooperation on policy and research to reduce
eardiquakelosses. TohelpFEMAas itplans andnnplements thisnew
program,thisreportbyapaneloftheBoardonNateralDisastersoftiie
National Research Cowicil was chargedto(1) '^assess theoutcomes of
the Symposium** and (2) "identify important opportunities for future
scientificandpolicyexchangesbetweenthetwocountries.**
Based on its review, the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy
Symposium Observer Panel concludes that there were a number of
important achievements from the Symposium. The most important of
these was the initiation ofa new era of earthquake policy cooperation
based on agreements at the cabinet level of the United States and
Japanese governments. In its review of the Symposium presentations
and discussions, the panel identifies specific opportunities for policy
and research collaboration on real-time seismic monitoring;
seismological studies; probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; loss
estimation studies; disaster situation assessments; perfoimance-based
design methodologies; large-scaledynamictesting and snnulation; and
emergencypreparedness, response, andmitigati<mefforts. To enhance
dieopportunitiesforooUaboration,thepanelmakesrecommendationsto
FEMAonarangeoftopics.Thesemdnde:
• there is aneedforpolicy leadershipto definethe topics for
U.S.-Japancollaboration,
• strategic planning is needed to define specific cooperative
activities.
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