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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium PDF

71 Pages·1997·3.4 MB·English
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Preview Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium

-"^AL BF.FAgrH cc. :iL II 1 REPORT OF THE OBSERVER PANEL FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN EARTHQUAKE POLICY SYMPOSIUM U.S.-JapanRarthqiiakePolicySymposiumObserverPand BoardonNaturalDisasters CommissiononGeosciences, Environment, andResources NationalResearchCouncil pR0Pc i NATIONALACADEMYPRESS Washington,D.C. 1997 NOTICE: Theprojectthatisthe subjectofthis reportwasapprovedby theGoverningBoardofthe NationalResearchCouncil, whosemembers are drawn from the councils ofthe National Academy ofSciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Instimte of Medicine. The members ofthe panel responsible for the report were chosen fortheir specialconq)etencesandwithregardforapptapnattbalance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Commitlee consistiQg of members of the Natiaoal Academy of Sciences, the NationalAcademyofEqgineeriog,andtheInsthuteofMedicme. Support for this study was provided by the Federal Emergency ManagementAgency. Additionalcopiesofthisreportareavailablefrom: BoardonNaturalDisasters NationalResearchCouncil NW 2101 ConstitutionAvenue, Washington, DC20418 202-334-1964 ThecoverartforthisreportwascreatedbyCarrieMalloiy,agraduate oftheCooperUnionfortheAdvancementofScienceandArt.Shetakes manyofherdiemesforthenaturalworld, andshehasprovidedseveral coversforNationalResearchCouncilreports. Theoriginalwoodblock for this cover was created using traditional Japanese carving tods, techniques,andinks. Copyright 1997 by die National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica Copyrightedmaterial 1 U.S.-JAPANEARTHQUAKE POLICY SYMPOSIUMOBSERVERPANEL WILFREDIWAN, Chair, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena WILLIAMHALL, UniversityofIllinois, Urbana-Champaign LUCILEJONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California STEPHANIEH. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, LosAngeles, California PAULSOMERVILLE,Woodward-ClydeFederalServices,Pasadena, California L. THOMASTOBIN,Tobin&Associates,MillVaUey,California Staff CHARLESMEADE,StudyDirector SUSANSHERWIN,SeniorProjectAssi m Copytly1 BOARD ONNATURALDISASTERS WILFREDIWAN, Chaa^, CalifomialostitiiteofTechnology,Pasadena LLOYDCLUFF,PacificGasandEtoctricCompany, SanRancisco, California HENRYFALK, CentersforDiseaseControl, Atlanta, Georgia LUCILEJONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, Califomia JAMESKIMPEL, UniversityofOklahoma, Norman HOWARDKUNREUTHER, UniversityofPennsylvania,Philadelphia WALTERLYNN, CornellUniversity, Ithaca, NewYork STEPHANIEH. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, LosAngeles,California JOANNENIGG, UniversityofDelaware,Newark DALLASPECK, U.S. GeologicalSurvey,Reston,Viiginia RICHARDROTH, Northbrook,lUinois HARVEYRYLAND,InsuianoeInstituteforProper^LossReduction, Boston,Massachusetts ELLISSTANLEY,Atlanta-FultonCountyEmergencyManagement Agency,Atlanta,Geoigia FRANKTHOMAS,Loudon,Tennessee GILBERTWHITE,UniversityofColorado,Boulder Staff STEPHENPARKER, Director CHARLES MEADE, SeniorProgramOfficer GREGORYSYMMES, StaffOfficer ANDREVARCHAVER, Consultant SUSANSHERWIN,SeniorProjectAssistant iv Copyrightedmaterial COMMISSIONONGEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT,ANDRESOURCES GEORGEM. HORNBERGER. Chair. UnhrosityofVirginia, Charlottesville PATRICKR. ATKINS,AluminumCompanyofAmerica, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMESP. BRUCE, CanadianClimateProgramBoard,Ottawa,Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, UniversityofTexas, Austin JERRYF. FRANKLIN, UniversityofWashington, Seattle DEBRAS. KNOPMAN, ProgressiveFoundation, Washington,D.C. PERRYL. MCCARTY, StanfordUniversity,California JUDITHE. MCDOWBLL,WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitudoo, Massachusetts S.GEORGEPHILANDER,PrincecoiiUniveisily,NewJen^ RAYMONDA.PRICE,Queen'sUniveisityatKliigstoii,Ontario THOMASC.SCHELUNG,UniveisityofMaiyland,0>11^Park ELLENK.SILBERGELD,UniversityofMaiylandMedicalSchool Baltimore VICTORIAJ.TSCHINKEL,LandersandParsons,Tallahassee,Florida NationalResearchCouncilStaff STEPHENRATTIEN, ExecutiveDirector STEPHEND. PARKER, AssociateExecutiveDirector MORGANGOPNIK, AssistantExecutiveDirector GREGORYSYMMES, ReportsOfficer JAMESMALLORY*AdministntiveOfficer SANDIFTTZPATRICK,AdministrativeAssociate MARQUTTASMITH,PCAnalystandProjectAssistant V Copytiyiuu, The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority ofthechanergrantedtoitbytheCongressin 1863, theAcademyhas a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr.Bruce Alberts is piesideiit of the National AcademyofSciences. The National Acaden^ of Eogineeriog was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organizationofoutstanding engineers. It Is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the NationalAcademyofSciencestheresponsibilityforadvisingthefederal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National AcademyofEngineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent membersofappropriateprofessionsintheexaminationofpolicymatters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charterto be an adviser to the federal government and, uponitsowninitiative,toidentifyissuesofmedicalcare,research,and education. Dr. Kennedi I. Shhie is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Researdi Coundl was organizedby the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad communis of science and technology willi die Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advismg the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council hasbecome theprincipal operating agency ofboththe National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to thegovernment, thepublic, andthe scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both M Academiesand theInstitute ofMedicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts andDr. WilliamA. Wulfarechairman andinterimvicechairman, respectively, oftheNationalResearchCouncil vi Contents EXECUTIVESUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 BILATERALPROGRAMS 1 Existing Agreements, 7 NewCooperativeMechanismsfromtheEarthquakePolicy Symposium, 11 Conclusions. 12 3 TOPICSFORPOLICYANDRFSKARCH 13 COLLABORATION EarthquakeForecasting,Warning, andHazardZonation, 15 EarthquakeRiskAssessmentand Loss Estimation, 20 Earthquake ResistantDesign, Construction, Rehabilitation, and RepairStandards, 24 EarthquakePreparation, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation, 27 Conclusions.27 4 CONCLUSIONSAND RECOMMENDATIONS 2S Policy Leadership, 30 Strategic Plaiming, 30 Measuring Success, 31 ExpandedDialogue, 31 Function-to-FunctionCollaboration. 31 LiaisonContact, 32 Funding, 32 APPENDIXA! Correspondence 35 APPENDIXB: AmericanandJaiKineseInvitees 39 APPFJMDIXC: SymposiumAgenda 49 APPENDIXD: JointStatement 59 VII Cc Executive SumMlmliary From September 16-18, 1996, a U.S.-JapanEarthquake Policy Syiiq)osium was held at the National Acaden^ of Sciences in Washington, DC. Hosted by the Federal Emergen^ Management Agency (FEMA), themeeting involvedhighrlevel lepresentatiyes from both the United Stales and Japanese govenmients as pait of a new bilateral initiattve for cooperation on policy and research to reduce eardiquakelosses. TohelpFEMAas itplans andnnplements thisnew program,thisreportbyapaneloftheBoardonNateralDisastersoftiie National Research Cowicil was chargedto(1) '^assess theoutcomes of the Symposium** and (2) "identify important opportunities for future scientificandpolicyexchangesbetweenthetwocountries.** Based on its review, the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Observer Panel concludes that there were a number of important achievements from the Symposium. The most important of these was the initiation ofa new era of earthquake policy cooperation based on agreements at the cabinet level of the United States and Japanese governments. In its review of the Symposium presentations and discussions, the panel identifies specific opportunities for policy and research collaboration on real-time seismic monitoring; seismological studies; probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; loss estimation studies; disaster situation assessments; perfoimance-based design methodologies; large-scaledynamictesting and snnulation; and emergencypreparedness, response, andmitigati<mefforts. To enhance dieopportunitiesforooUaboration,thepanelmakesrecommendationsto FEMAonarangeoftopics.Thesemdnde: • there is aneedforpolicy leadershipto definethe topics for U.S.-Japancollaboration, • strategic planning is needed to define specific cooperative activities. 1 Copyrightedmaterial

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