Renewables for Energy Access and Sustainable Development in East Africa

158 Pages·2019·5.572 MB·English

by  Manfred Hafner, Simone Tagliapietra, Giacomo Falchetta, Giovanni Occhiali

SPRINGER BRIEFS IN ENERGY
Manfred Hafner
Simone Tagliapietra
Giacomo Falchetta
Giovanni Occhiali
Renewables for
Energy Access
and Sustainable
Development in
East Africa
123
SpringerBriefs in Energy
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/8903
(cid:129) (cid:129)
Manfred Hafner Simone Tagliapietra
(cid:129)
Giacomo Falchetta Giovanni Occhiali
Renewables for Energy
Access and Sustainable
Development in East Africa
ManfredHafner SimoneTagliapietra
FutureEnergyProgram FutureEnergyProgram
FondazioneEniEnricoMattei FondazioneEniEnricoMattei
Milano,Italy Milano,Italy
GiacomoFalchetta GiovanniOcchiali
FutureEnergyProgram FutureEnergyProgram
FondazioneEniEnricoMattei FondazioneEniEnricoMattei
Milano,Italy Milano,Italy
ISSN2191-5520 ISSN2191-5539 (electronic)
SpringerBriefsinEnergy
ISBN978-3-030-11734-4 ISBN978-3-030-11735-1 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11735-1
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2019931914
Thisbookisanopenaccesspublication.
©TheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2019
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Foreword
Imagine life with no electricity. No fridge with vaccines for a newborn child, nor
important anaesthetics for the mother giving birth. No exposure to computers in
school.Nomachinestoproduce.Andyetmorethanabillionpeoplelivewithout.
Then consider the difficulty of the analyst wishing to study how to electrify a
countryandsupplyenergytodriveitsdevelopment.Theyarefacedwithamountain
ofatask.Dataislimited;modellingtoolsareexpensive.
Pondertheplightofthepolicymakerwhoshouldmanagenationalresources,set
market rules and engage with investors and development partners. The latter want
hardauditableinformation.Inmanyinstancesthattypeofinformationsimplydoes
not exist. Investment is therefore not made. Those without electricity stay without
and,inturn,arelockedoutoftheopportunitiesthatmostofthereadersofthisbook
willenjoy.
In this book, the authors join the charge to help breach this deadlock—with a
focusonEastAfrica.Theydosobymapping thehighpotentialsofrenewableand
gasreservesintheregion,aswellasthecomplementaryroletheymayplay.Then,by
taking advantage of scientific advances in open data and free open models, they
deliver quantitative scenarios. These provide a powerful vision. Together with
thought-leadinganalysistheauthorshelporientatethedebatearound—andpotential
directions for—investment and development in electrification, gas and renewable
energydeployment.
Along the way they leave as a legacy transparent, reproducible, reconstructable
data,toolsandinsight.Thisisauniqueandpowerfulcontribution.
DivisionofEnergySystemsAnalysis(KTH-dESA) MarkHowells
RoyalInstituteofTechnology
Stockholm,Sweden
v
Acknowledgements
Support from the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in realising this book is
gratefullyacknowledged.TheauthorsarealsothankfultotheKTHRoyalInstituteof
Technology—DivisionofEnergySystemAnalysis(dESA)fororganisingthe2018
SummerSchoolonModellingToolsforSustainableDevelopment.
vii
About the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
TheFondazioneEniEnricoMattei(FEEM),foundedin1989,isanon-profit,policy-
oriented, international research centre and a think tank producing high-quality,
innovative, interdisciplinary and scientifically sound research on sustainable
development. It contributestothe quality of decision-making inpublicand private
spheresthroughanalyticalstudies,policyadvice,scientificdisseminationandhigh-
leveleducation.Thankstoitsinternationalnetwork,FEEMintegratesitsresearchand
disseminationactivitieswiththoseofthebestacademicinstitutionsandthinktanks
aroundtheworld.
ix
’
About FEEM s Future Energy Program (FEP)
The Future Energy Program (previously called Energy Scenarios and Policy
program) aims to carry out interdisciplinary, scientifically sound, prospective and
policy-orientedappliedresearch,targetedatpoliticalandbusinessdecision-makers.
This aim is achieved through an integrated quantitative and qualitative analysis of
energy scenarios and policies. This innovative and interdisciplinary approach puts
together the major factors driving the change in global energy dynamics
(i.e. technological, economic, geopolitical, institutional and sociological aspects).
FEPappliesthismethodologytoawiderangeofissues(energydemandandsupply,
infrastructures, financing, market analyses, socio-economic impacts of energy
policies).
xi
Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . 1
2 EastAfrica:RegionalEnergyOutlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3 Country-LevelAnalysis:PowerSector,EnergyResources,
andPolicyContext.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4 ElectrificationScenarios. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . 49
5 ConditionsforREDeploymentandEnergyDevelopment. . . . . . . . . 73
6 REInteractionwithNGResources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
7 ConclusionsandPolicyImplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
AppendixA:AdditionalTablesandFigures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
AppendixB:MethodologyandParametersoftheElectrification
Analysis. . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. 145
xiii