Reliability and Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Multi-Unit Nuclear Power Plants

294 Pages·2023·21.413 MB·English

by  Senthil C. Kumar

RELIABILITY AND
PROBABILISTIC SAFETY
ASSESSMENT IN
MULTI-UNIT NUCLEAR
POWER PLANTS

RELIABILITY AND
PROBABILISTIC SAFETY
ASSESSMENT IN
MULTI-UNIT NUCLEAR
POWER PLANTS
C.SENTHILKUMAR
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To my parents
To my wife and two lovely daughters

Contents
AbouttheAuthor xi
Preface xiii
1 Reliabilitymodeling 1
1.1 Reliabilitymathematics 1
1.2 Probabilitytheory 5
1.3 Probabilitydistributions 13
1.4 Systemreliability 22
Furtherreadings 35
2 Introductiontoprobabilisticsafetyassessment 37
2.1 SafetyapproachinNPPs—defense-in-depth 40
2.2 NeedforPSA 41
2.3 RegulatorydecisionmakingwithPSAinsights 42
2.4 Approachesforregulatorydecisions 44
2.5 Qualityassurance 46
2.6 StandardizationofPSA 48
2.7 PSAmethodology 48
2.8 Initiatingeventfrequency 59
2.9 Componentdata 60
2.10 Humanreliability 61
2.11 Dependenceanalysis 62
2.12 Passivesystems 64
2.13 Softwarereliability 67
2.14 Uncertaintyanalysis 74
2.15 Sensitivityanalysis 75
2.16 Importancemeasures 75
2.17 ApplicationsofPSA 78
Furtherreadings 79
3 Riskassessment 83
3.1 Background 86
3.2 Objectiveandscope 87
3.3 Qualitativeandquantitativemethodsofriskassessment 88
Furtherreadings 101
vii
viii Contents
4 Sitesafetygoals 103
4.1 Multi-unitconsiderations 104
4.2 Sitesafetygoals 104
4.3 Sitesafetygoals—internationalscenario 107
4.4 Multi-criteriaanalysisforriskmetrics 109
4.5 Communicationofriskinformationtopublicandtheirperception 111
Furtherreadings 112
5 Challengesinriskassessmentofmultiunitsite 115
5.1 Keyissues 116
5.2 Methodsforintegratedriskassessment 120
5.3 SeismicPSAformultiunitsite 138
5.4 MUPSAforLevel2 146
5.5 MUPSAforLevel3 147
Furtherreadings 148
6 Riskaggregation 151
6.1 Unitlevel 153
6.2 Sitelevel 154
6.3 Aspectstobeconsideredinriskaggregation 154
6.4 Riskaggregationanditseffectonriskmetric 168
6.5 Mathematicalaspectsofriskaggregation 168
6.6 Interpretationofresults 169
6.7 Riskaggregationforrisk-informeddecisions 169
Furtherreadings 170
7 Humanreliability 173
7.1 Introduction 173
7.2 Typesofhumanerrors 175
7.3 Humanerrorinnuclearpowerplants 177
7.4 Humanreliabilitymodels 179
7.5 HRAgenerations 190
7.6 Humancognitivearchitecture 195
7.7 HRAinthecontextofmultiunitPSA 196
Furtherreadings 197
8 Commoncausefailuresanddependencymodelinginsingle
andmultiunitNPPsites 201
8.1 Dependentfailures 202
8.2 Commoncausefailures 202
Contents ix
8.3 CCFmodels 204
8.4 Impactvectormethodtoestimatethealphafactors 206
8.5 ApproachforinterunitCCFinmultiunitsites 217
Furtherreadings 218
9 InternationalstudiesrelatedtomultiunitPSA:Areview 221
9.1 SeabrookPSA 221
9.2 ByronandBraidwoodPSA 223
9.3 ResearchworkatMarylandUniversity,UnitedStates 224
9.4 KoreaAtomicEnergyResearchInstitute 225
9.5 CANDUOwnersGroup 226
9.6 MultiunitPSAstudiesatEDFFrance 230
9.7 FukushimaDaiichiexperience 231
9.8 MUPSAresearchinIndia 232
9.9 MUPSAapproachintheUnitedKingdom 235
9.10 SiteriskmodeldevelopmentinHungary 235
9.11 Othercountries 237
9.12 SummaryofinternationalexperienceonMUPSA 237
Furtherreadings 238
10 Multiunitriskassessmentforsmallmodularreactors 241
10.1 Introduction 241
10.2 Smallmodularreactors 242
10.3 Multiunitriskinchemicalindustries 249
Furtherreadings 255
11 Summary 257
11.1 Casestudyandconclusions 257
11.2 DifferentapproachesforMUPSA 257
11.3 ApplicationofMUPSAmethodology 261
11.4 InsightsandlessonslearntinMUPSA 269
11.5 Closure 271
Furtherreadings 271
Index 273