Reliability Analysis and Prediction: A Methodology Oriented Treatment

897 Pages·1992·35.512 MB·English

by  Krishna B. MISRA (Eds.)

FUNDAMENTAL STUDIES IN ENGINEERING
Vol. 1 Coelho/Physics of Dielectrics for the Engineer
Vol. 2 Szücs/Similitude and Modelling
Vol. 3 Scharf, Lisieski/Amplitude Distribution Spectrometers
Vol. 4 Mohilla, Ferenz/Chemical Process Dynamics
Vol. 5 Baker et al./Explosion Hazards and Evaluation
Vol. 6 Sobczyk/Stochastic Wave Propagation
Vol. 7 König/Shakedown of Elastic-Plastic Structures
Vol. 8 Cacko, Bily, Bukoveczky/Random Processes
Vol. 9 Kubâcek/Foundations of Estimation Theory
Vol. 10 Catuneanu, Mihalache/Reliability Fundamentals
Vol. 11 Boros/Measurement Evaluation
Vol. 12 Baker et al./Similarity Methods in Engineering Dynamics, Revised Edition
Vol. 13 Baker, Tang/Gas, Dust and Hybrid Explosions
Vol. 14 Piotrowski/Theory of Physical andTechnical Measurement
Vol. 15 Misra/Reliability Analysis and Prediction
FUNDAMENTAL STUDIES IN ENGINEERING 15
RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
AND PREDICTION
A Methodology Oriented Treatment
Krishna B. MISRA
Reliability Engineering Centre, Indian Institute ofTechnology, Kharagpur, India
ELSEVIER
Amsterdam - Oxford - New York - Tokyo 1992
ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS B.V.
Sara Burgerhartstraat 25
P.O. Box 211,1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Misra, K. B. (Krishna B.)
Reliability analysis and prediction : a methodology oriented
treatment / Krishna B. Misra.
p. cm. — (Fundamental studies in engineering ; 15)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-444-89606-6
1. Reliability (Engineering)— Statistical methods.
2. Reliability (Engineering)—Mathematical models. I. Title.
II. Series.
TA169.M57 1992
620'.00452—dc20 92-13149
CIP
ISBN: 0-444-89606-6
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Vandly
dedicated ta the
( past ~~) ( Present )
Dr.CL. Nisra - Father Veena - Wife STUDENTS
for her patience, OF
Sarasuati - Mother
noninterference
Santosh - Sister and encouragement RELIABILITY
VI
A RELIABILITY CONCEPT
In India, the concept of Trinity of Gods, viz., Brahma - the Creator, Vishnu
- the Preserver and Shiva - the Destroyer, appears to be basically a concept
based on the famous bathtub curve in reliability. To Hindus, Gods and
Goddesses represent all those powers, which influence or control their
lives. For example, Varun (Water), Vayu (Wind), Agni (Fire), Saraswati
(Knowledge), Lakshmi (Wealth) etc., all belong to the family of Gods and
Goddesses. However, Brahma, Vishnu and Mahesh are supreme and are all
pervading the Universe (just as the concept of bathtub curve is).
Among the three Gods of Trinity, Brahma - Creator, is not as
widely worshipped as Vishnu or Mahesh and in fact is known as a cursed-God.
In India, there are only a couple of temples of Brahma, whereas there are
several thousands devoted to Vishnu and Shiva. The real reason, according
to the author, appears to be man's selfishness, since having created a
person, Brahma's job is absolutely over. Then why should He be worshipped?
Particularly, when He does not even offer any guarantee as the manufacturers
do. The other two Gods, i.e., Vishnu and Shiva are extensively worshipped
because the former controls the useful life period and the other controls
the wearout period and eventually the death.
vii
PREFACE
There has been a phenomenal growth in reliability literature during the past
three decades and the state-of-art over these years has changed
considerably. In fact, methodologies used in the 60s and the 70s have
become obsolete and out-moded in the 90s. But unfortunately, during this
period, no serious effort was made to present a state-of-art book that could
be used as a benchmark for subsequent developments.
This naturally makes a lot of demands on a person who is
interested in picking up from the start and intends to come up to the level
of the state-of-art in the subject. This learning process is further
complicated by the fact that reliability is a multidisciplinary subject and
a beginner will have to identify the sources and should have an access to a
widely spread background material. Additionally, he would be required to
scan the vast and the widely scattered literature to make himself
up-to-date. Another thing a beginner soon discovers is that the existing
texts on reliability tend to provide an excellent coverage only over a
limited portion and present a lopsided treatment of the subject over the
rest of the topics. With the result, a beginner is required to browse
through a variety of texts and cannot rely on just one.
It is also true that no sincere effort has ever been made in the
past to present a methodology oriented treatment of the subject and the
books generally tend to be sketchy or incomplete and often leave a reader
guessing while trying to use a method. Also much of the real work of
practical value rarely appeared in the published books. It is also
well-known that the engineers engaged in industries or organizations do not
have the time or the patience to look for several texts and also to browse
through several research papers in order to pick up an appropriate
methodology.
It was, therefore, considered necessary and very appropriate to
present a book through which an engineer, a researcher or a student who
apparently does not have any previous background, not only grasps the basics
of reliability but also obtains information on the state-of-art. Obviously,
the present book is an effort in this direction and attempts to solve these
problems to a very large extent.
The scope of the book is limited to the subject of reliability
analysis and prediction, and therefore equips a reader with all the
methodological tools available in the area of reliability prediction and
analysis without having to seek the help of a guide or the labour of having
to go through several books.
The book covers all such areas like reliability mathematics,
organisation and analysis of data, reliability modelling and system
reliability evaluation techniques. Consideration of environmental factors
and stresses to compute reliability of involved components also finds an
adequate coverage in the book.
System modelling is an important area and one has to develop a
discerning capability to identify a particular situation and select an
appropriate methodology, to assess system reliability and the parameters of
interest. Limitations of models, methods, procedures, algorithms and
programmes have been suitably dealt with in the book. A wide variety of
models and methods presented, including the most recent ones, help in the
art and the science of reliability analysis and prediction.
The treatment of maintained systems is designed to help a person
analyse systems with more realistic and practical assumptions. This would
facilitate maintainability design of a system on more pragmatic basis.
viii
Fault tree analysis, which has proved to be a valuable tool to system
analysts has been extensively dealt with at length incorporating the latest
developments.
References have been provided at the end of each chapter and these
have been arranged chronologically. Also at the end of the book, a list of
the books referenced has been included. The books have been quoted in the
chapters by prefixing a letter B to a reference number. A list of some
terms used in reliability has been also included in Appendix I. A set of
four tables, which have been used in the examples and illustrations
presented in the book, has been given in Appendixes II to V. These have
been generated using a computer.
Various aspects of the problems and the difficulties faced at each
step are highlighted in detail throughout the book. Various techniques of
analysis including recent trends and practices have been dealt with at
length. Several examples and illustrations help build the confidence of a
reader and prepare him to deal with real life problems in his specific area
of interest. The chapters provide a logical and graded presentation of the
subject matter keeping the difficulties of a beginner in view and have been
systematically assembled to fill the information gap that exist at present.
The engineers working in various industries, research organizations,
particularly in defence, nuclear, chemical, space or communication would
find the coverage of the subject useful. This book will also be found
useful as a text book for serious-minded students and teachers.
This book is an outcome of the author's more than 25 years of
teaching and researching in the area, and is expected to fill the gap which
has been experienced by practising engineers in pursuing the subject. In
the final analysis, it is hoped that this book will stand out distinctly
among the rest on the subject.
K.B. Misra
XV
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
In presenting the state-of-art, usually it becomes necessary to
discuss and describe the contributions of several researchers and the author
would like to record his appreciation and thanks to all of them,
particularly, to Dr. A. Bossche, Dr. K. Nakashima, Prof. E. J. Henley, Dr.
K.D. Heidtmann, Dr. S.P. Rai, Dr. A. Satyanarayana.
The author also owes special thanks to his former Ph.D. students
Prof. J.D. Sharma, Prof. K.K. Aggrawal, Prof. E. Balagurusamy, Prof. J.P.
Gadani, Dr. R. Thakur, whose research association with the author laid the
foundation of some of the material presented here. He would like to thank
his Ph.D. students, Mr.K.P. Soman and Dr.Usha Sharma and several past and
present postgraduate students, for the assistance rendered by them at
various stages.
The author would like to record his appreciation of the facilities
made available by the Ministry of Human Resources Development, Government of
India, New Delhi and Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur and by Prof.
S.K. Sarangi.
Thanks are also due to IEEE, Pergamon Press Pic., Elsevier Science
Publishers and Taylor and Francis for their kind permission to adapt and to
quote in this book some of the papers published in their journals, viz., in
the IEEE Trans. on Reliability, Microelectronics and Reliability,
Reliability Engineering and System Safety and International Journal of
Systems Science, respectively. Particularly, the Table 6.7 on page 446 is
reproduced from reference [6.22] and some of the figures from the following
references have also been reproduced with the permission of the IEEE.
From Reference # Figures Reproduced
[6.7] 6.6(b) and 6.8
[6.14] 6.49
[6.32] 6.26 to 6.28
[6.33] 6.25, 6.32 to 6.34,
6.39, 6.40 and 6.43
[6.47] 6.22 to 6.24
Also, figures 6.32 to 6.36, 6.38 and 6.43 to 6.48 of the book have been
reproduced with the permission from Pergamon Press Pic. from reference
[6.37] in addition to Table 5.4 from reference [5.6].
Admittedly, it would not have been possible to complete the book
without the painstaking secretarial work by Mr. Dipankar Chakrabarti and
late Ms. Hemlata and without the help rendered by Ms. Sima Chakrabarti and
Mr. N.K. Chaudhury. Careful proof-reading by Ms. Kavita Misra, Ms. Aparna
Pathak, Mr. Rakesh Goyal, Mr. Suprasad and Mr. Venka Reddy helped to improve
the text, considerably.
Lastly, the author would like to record his thanks to Elsevier
Science Publishers and to Drs. Smit in particular, for her patience and
interest and to Mr. Nauta and Mr. Oosterwijk for their efficient handling of
the publication.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING : AN OVERVIEW
1.0 Introduct ion
No other branch of engineering science, with the exception of
computer technology and environmental engineering, has developed and
advanced so phenomenally during last three decades as the reliability
engineering. This is primarily due to man's stepping into the space age
which imposed very stringent requirements of excellence on everything that
goes with it. Apart from this, the ever-increasing complexity of systems
further necessiated high reliability of components and subsystems for their
satisfactory operation, safety of human beings and for the protection of our
environment.
Especially, the high risk systems such as nuclear power plants and
some other chemical plants warrant operational safety of highest order.
Even on the basis of economic considerations, a designer is left with no
option but to look for high reliability of systems as the cost of down time
works out to a crushing sum. For example, the power replacement cost when a
moderate-sized nuclear plant is shut, may run over U.S.$800000. Loss of
several billion dollars besides loss of human lives was involved in the
total failure of the Challenger mission.
The development of sophisticated weapon system also called for
very high precision and accuracy as the designer's prime consideration. All
these requirements put a tremendous pressure on man to seek for better
materials, parts, processes and systems, thus further fuelling his quest for
excellence in everything around him.
Quest for Excellence
Throughout the history of mankind, man's quest for excellence has
been guiding him to conceive, design, produce and use better and better
materials, products, processes, systems and services. This quest is
unsatiable and has led to numerous creative, useful and economic
innovations. It has now become synonymous to view industrial development
and economic growth by the capability of a nation for technological change
and innovations. All this is done to improve the quality of life or
excellence in every sphere of activity. This effort of man, in other words
can rightly be called as the research development (R and D) effort.
In general, R and D effort can be defined as any creative and
systematic activity undertaken to increase the stock of knowledge, including
knowledge of man, culture and society and in the use of this knowledge to
devise new applications. It includes basic research, applied research in
all fields of science and technology, such as agriculture, medicine,
industrial chemistry etc., and the experimental development work leading to
new devices, products or processes.
It is man's quest for excellence that keeps R and D effort
continuously going on and has in fact led to a kind of race between nations
to produce better and better materials, products, processes or systems.
Leadership Through R and D
Today the leadership among the industrialized nation is determined
by the amount of money a country spends on the R and D effort.
In the recent past, Japanese are known as a nation that has turned
technologies and knowhow into world's highest quality products ranging from
2
pocket-sized video players to supercomputers. They have excelled in the
skill of making products that are better in quality and cheaper in costs
than their counterparts elsewhere in the world. They have acquired this
position over four decades starting in 50s, when their products were
world-wide known to have poor quality and durability. From 50s through 80s,
the Japanese had spent more than US$ 10 billion in the acquisition of
foreign technology and had negotiated 30,000 separate agreements with
foreign companies for technology input besides putting their own industrial
infrastructure in proper shape. According to one survey, Japan* s total
expenditure for R and D in 1988 totalled 10,627.6 billion Yens, and in 1987,
the same was 9,836.6 billion Yens, which means a rise of 8% in one year.
The ratio of R and D expenditure to gross national product (GNP) for 1988
was 2.85%. The Japanese spending in R and D totalled US$ 62,353 million in
fiscal 1987 whereas the corresponding figures for US, West Germany and
France were, US$ 118,782, 31,642 and 20,499 million, respectively. Of
course, the US figures do include defence R and D spendings which the
Japanese figures do not. Table 1.1 indicates the comparative R and D
investment pattern in industrialized and developing countries of the world.
Table 1.1 : R and D Investment Pattern of Some Selected Countries
R and D Expenditure
Countries
as % of GNP
Industrialized countries 2-2.5
South Korea 2.85 (1988)
India 1.13 (1988-89)
Thailand 0.23 (1983)
Chile, Cuba, Mexico 0.5 to 1.14 (1988)
Obviously, these relative figures do reflect their standing in respect of
their leadership in industrial sector. In fact 120 countries of the third
world together spend only 2% of the world investment on R and D. Of this, a
major part comes from the Government and very little from the industries.
Another indicator of the level of R and D activity of a country
can be had from the number of personnel engaged in R and D. Table 1.2
provides a comparison of the level of manpower engaged in R and D effort in
some of the countries of the world, assuming that the person engaged in R
and D is at least a science graduate.
Table 1.2 : Number of Employed Personnel in R and D
Countries Number of R and D Personnel
USA, U.K. , F.R.G. , Japan 300,000 to 500,000
China 406,000
India 100,000
South Korea 60,000
Thailand 32,000
It is highly disappointing that in respect of the third world
countries, the R and D manpower is much below the threshold level to sustain
scientific research except in China, India, Korea and Thailand.
R and D leads to Performance Improvement
Besides providing an advantage of proper, judicious and wise
utilisation of the resources, any R and D effort undertaken is bound to lead