Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan - FOI

165 Pages·2009·1.05 MB·English

by  Kristina Zetterlund

Pakistan – Consequences of
Deteriorating Security in Afghanistan
EDITED BY KRISTInA ZeTTeRlunD
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Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: [phone] www.foi.se FOI-R--2683--Se user report Defence Analysis
Defence Analysis Fax: [phone] ISSn 1650-1942 January 2009
Se-164 90 Stockholm
Edited by Kristina Zetterlund

Pakistan – Consequences of
Deteriorating Security in
Afghanistan

Cover image: Border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Picture taken in the spring of
2007 in Paktia Province, Afghanistan, looking into Pakistan. Photographer: Staff
Sergeant Wells, United States Army.
FOI-R--2683--SE

Title Pakistan – Consequences of Deteriorating Security in
Afghanistan
Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2683--SE
Rapporttyp Användarrapport
Report Type User report
Månad/Month Januari/January
Utgivningsår/Year 2009
Antal sidor/Pages 164 p
ISSN ISSN 1650-1942
Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet
Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet
Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis
Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov
Subcategory 11 Policy Support to the Government.
Projektnr/Project no A12004
Godkänd av/Approved by Eva Mittermaier

FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency
Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Division of Defence Analysis

164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm
FOI-R--2683--SE
Sammanfattning
Pakistan har hamnat i världens fokus till följd av en rad politiska, ekonomiska
och säkerhetsrelaterade händelser. Ökad insikt i att Pakistan spelar en kritisk roll
för ett stabilare Afghanistan har också riktat strålkastarna mot landet. Med det
växandet intresset finns också en ökad önskan att fördjupa kunskapen om
regionen. Denna rapport sammanför en grupp av internationellt ledande Pakistan-
experter som här analyserar utvecklingen i Pakistan. För att påvisa de regionala
kopplingarna har skribenterna analyserat olika frågor med ett försämrat säker-
hetsläge i Afghanistan som utgångspunkt. Rapportens målsättning är att granska
utvecklingen i Pakistan från ett inrikes-, regionalt och internationellt perspektiv.

Nyckelord: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indien, Kina, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al
Qaeda, Taliban, Sydasien, kärnvapen.
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Summary
Pakistan is at the centre of the world’s attention in the wake of various political,
economic and security-related events. The recognition that Pakistan has a key
role in the stabilisation of neighbouring Afghanistan has also brought the country
into the spotlight. With the intensified focus on the region, there is a growing
desire to deepen the understanding of links between Pakistan and Afghanistan as
well as related regional and international dynamics. This report brings together a
group of internationally leading Pakistan-experts who look at various issues
related to the country. In order to highlight the regional linkages the writers
analyse different topics with a deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan as
point of departure. The objective of the report is to look at developments in
Pakistan from a domestic, regional and international perspective.

Keywords: Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, China, Iran, USA, NATO, terrorism, Al
Qaeda, Taliban, South Asia, nuclear weapons.
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The Asia Security Studies Programme
The Asia Security Studies programme at the Swedish Defence Research
Agency’s Department of Defence Analysis conducts research and policy relevant
analysis on defence and security related issues. Its primary focus is on East and
South Asia as well as the Persian Gulf region. The programme strikes a balance
between working on issues directly affecting Swedish foreign and defence policy
as well as research on topics with wider regional and global implications. The
Asia Security Studies programme is mainly financed by the Swedish Ministry of
Defence but research is also conducted for other ministries and agencies in
Sweden and abroad.
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Table of Contents
The Asia Security Studies Programme.......................................................5
Introduction....................................................................................................9
Pakistan and Afghanistan in Focus.................................................................9
Objective & Method.......................................................................................10
Research Questions & Scenario...................................................................11
Structure & Content.......................................................................................12
1 Pakistan’s Security Complex – Shuja Nawaz.................................15
1.1 The Age of Terror............................................................................18
1.2 Power Brokers.................................................................................19
1.3 Today’s Headline: “War on Terror”.................................................19
1.4 The Corporate Army........................................................................21
1.5 Nature of the Army..........................................................................21
1.6 The Wide Footprint of the Army......................................................22
1.7 Army vs. Civil Hierarchy..................................................................23
1.8 Protecting its Own...........................................................................24
1.9 Challenges Ahead...........................................................................25
1.10 An Army Undergoing Change.........................................................26
1.11 Penetration of Civil Society.............................................................27
1.12 Defending the Homeland................................................................28
1.13 Looking Ahead................................................................................28
1.14 The Immediate Challenges.............................................................29
2 Militant Organisations and Their Driving Forces – Rohan
Gunaratna and Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, RSIS,
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore..............................32
2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................32
2.2 Militant Organisations in FATA.......................................................35
2.3 The Pakistani Taliban.....................................................................41
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2.4 Post-2008 General Elections and the Security Situation in
FATA...............................................................................................51
2.5 Key Drivers behind the Rise of Taliban and the Subsequent
Talibanisation of FATA....................................................................53
2.6 Conclusion.......................................................................................57
3 Security Dynamics in Pakistan’s Border Areas – Imtiaz Gul,
Center for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad..................62
3.1 Introduction......................................................................................62
3.2 The Tribal Structure.........................................................................66
3.3 The FCR..........................................................................................67
3.4 Administrative Arrangements..........................................................67
3.5 Political Representation...................................................................68
3.6 Actors in Conflict.............................................................................68
3.7 Militant Forces in FATA...................................................................70
3.8 Cross-Border Allies - Afghan Organisations...................................78
3.9 Non-Afghan Foreign Militants..........................................................78
3.10 Arab Al- Qaeda / Taliban.................................................................80
3.11 Militants’ Relations with Federal / Provincial Government..............82
3.12 FATA Future....................................................................................83
4 Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan – Ann Wilkens,
Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs...............................................88
4.1 The Pashtunistan Issue...................................................................88
4.2 The Durand Line..............................................................................90
4.3 The FATA........................................................................................92
4.4 The War Against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan..........................94
4.5 Balochistan......................................................................................98
4.6 The Rule of the Taliban.................................................................100
4.7 Post 9/11.......................................................................................101
4.8 The Indian Dimension...................................................................103
4.9 Conclusions...................................................................................105
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5 China-Pakistan Relationship: All-Weathers, But Maybe Not
All-Dimensional – Ye Hailin, IAPS, Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, Beijing.................................................................108
5.1 China and Pakistan Strategic Cooperation—Time-Tested
Solid Foundation...........................................................................109
5.2 Economic Linkage and People-to-People Exchanges—Heel of
Achilles?........................................................................................115
5.3 China and Pakistan: An Externally-led Relationship.....................121
5.4 The Challenges to China and Pakistan Relationship....................122
5.5 Conclusion: China Should Keep China-Pakistan Relationship
as Cornerstone of Her Regional Policy.........................................128
6 India and Pakistan: “If You Don’t Know Where You are
Going, Any Road Will Take You There” – Stephen P. Cohen,
Brookings Institution, Washington...............................................131
6.1 The Context...................................................................................132
6.2 Indian Imperatives.........................................................................135
6.3 Scenario Building and Looking Ahead..........................................139
6.4 India’s Many Choices....................................................................140
6.5 Scenario Building..........................................................................142
6.6 Conclusion....................................................................................145
7 Pakistan and Iran: A Troubled Relationship – Harsh V. Pant,
King’s College London...................................................................146
7.1 Historical Background on Pakistan-Iran Ties................................147
7.2 9/11 and Its Aftermath...................................................................150
7.3 Recent Trends in Pakistan-Iran Ties.............................................152
7.4 The Regional Dynamic..................................................................156
7.5 Conclusion....................................................................................161
Concluding Remarks................................................................................164
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Introduction
Pakistan and Afghanistan in Focus
International attention has increasingly turned towards Pakistan and Afghanistan
since 2001. Not only are there few signs of any substantial improvements in the
security situation in Afghanistan despite an international troop presence but
violence there is also more and more seen to be connected to developments
across the border with Pakistan.
A series of recent incidents have once again thrown Pakistan into the interna-
tional limelight. To name but a few – the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in
December 2007, the general election which led to the defeat of President Pervez
Musharraf, the devastating bomb attack on the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, and
in November 2008, the series of coordinated attacks in Mumbai which left more
than 170 people killed and which were blamed on a Pakistan-based group.
Pakistan’s economic situation is also a source of concern. Weighed down by
among other factors a worsening security situation and higher oil and food
prices, the already limping economy of Pakistan suffered a hard blow when the
world’s economy hit the brakes. The International Monetary Fund in November
2008 approved a $7.6 billion bailout package to Islamabad but Pakistan’s central
bank still projects inflation to be at 20 to 22 percent in the fiscal year 2008/09,
predictions largely in line with the IMF forecast of 23 percent.1
Consequently, the region has been identified as a key policy challenge for the
surrounding world. US President Barack Obama has said that militants based in
South Asia are the biggest threat to the United States and has made clear that he
intends to increase efforts in Afghanistan, redeploying US troops from Iraq to
fight “the right battlefield” in Afghanistan and Pakistan.2 Along similar lines, UK
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has stated that three out of four of the most
serious terrorist plots monitored by MI5 have links to Pakistan.3
With the growing focus on the region, there is also growing interest in and desire
to deepen the understanding of links between Pakistan and Afghanistan as well
as related regional and international dynamics. Naturally, the region is of

1 Reuters, ‘Pakistan’s GDP growth to be in range of 3.5-4.5 pct’, 6 December 2008.
2 Reuters, ‘Obama says S.Asia is chief threat to U.S.’, 1 December 2008 and Sam Graham-Felsen,
‘Senator Obama Delivers Address on National Security’, post from Obama HQ, 1 August 2007,
www.barackobama.com.
3 James Kirkup, ‘Terrorists in Pakistan planning over 20 attacks on Britain, says Gordon Brown’,
Daily Telegraph, 15 December 2008.
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