Regional population projections, 2000-2020 : Pioneer Valley Region, Massachusetts

108 Pages·1991·3.5 MB·English

by  Pioneer Valley Planning Commission (Mass.). Regional Data Center

Regional Research Report
UMASS/AMHERST
December 1991
315Qtt.01bSb317b
Regional Population Projections,
2000 -2020
Pioneer Valley Region
Massachusetts
RegionalData Center
Pioneer ValleyPlanning Commission
26 CentralStreet • WestSpringfield, MASSACHUSEns 0I0S9 • Telephone: [phone]:)
/
(PublicationPrice: $20.00)
The Pioneer Valley Planning Commission maintains extensive demographic, economic,
transportation and land use datafiles as a resourcefor business and government. Customized
researchandanalysesservices areavailable. Data can bepresentedin table, graphicormapped
formats. Formoreinformation, contactthe Commission'sRegionalDataCenter.
Table of Contents
Parti: AnOverviewofTheProjectedPopulation 1
PartII: DescriptionofMethodology 2
PartIII: PioneerValleyRegionPopulation Change,7970-2020 ... 5
PartIV: PopulationProjectionsby5 yearAgeCohorts 6
Cities &Towns(inAlphabeticalOrder) 6
HampdenCounty 49
HampshireCounty 50
PioneerValleyRegion 51
ThisreportwasfinancedinpartbytheMassachusettsDepartmentofPublicWorkswithassistancefromthe
FederalHighwayAdministrationandthe UrbanMassTransportationAdministration.

PartL An Overview of theProjectedPopulation
PopulationtrendsofthePioneerValley Anevaluationofhistorical population
Regionreflecttheratesofchangeexperienced PopulationofthePioneerValleyRegion, trends are a key factorin assessingfuturepopula-
throughouttheCommonwealthofMassachusetts Massachusettsand UnitedStates tiongrowth. Withinthe PioneerValleyRegion
withgrowthoccurringataslowerrate thanthatof 110 and,in fact, throughoutthe United States, the
the United States. ThePioneerValleyRegion 90 decadeofthe 1950'sbroughtto aclosehighbirth
encompassesthe SpringfieldMetropolitan Area, rateswhich resulted intoday's largestpopulation
70
which is thefourthlargestmetropolitanarea in segmentcommonly referred to as BabyBoomers.
NewEnglandfollowingthoseofBoston,Hartford, 50 Between 1950and 1960,the region'spopulation
Region
4a3ndciPtrioesviadnedncteo.wnTsh,eisraepgiporno,xiwmhaitcehlyistmheadsiezeupofof T 30 Massachusetis iwnhcircehasbeedgbayni1n6.th7e%paosstthweahriegrharcaotnestionfuebdir.thNearly
theStateofRhodeIsland andhad a 1990popula- 10 everycommunity intheregiongainedpopulation
tionof602,878 residents. -10 while atthesame timethetrendtoward
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2021
suburbanizationbecameevident. During the
Year
decadewhichended in 1970,theregion's rateof
populationincrease had slowedto9.4%.
PioneerValley Region, Massachusetts
Subsequently,between 1970and 1980the
region'spopulationremained virtuallyunchanged
with asmalldecreaseof0.2%. Inthisdecade,the
populationofthe region's southernmostcounty,
HampdenCounty,decreasedby 16,033 while, to
thenorth, Hampshire Countygained 14,832
residents. Alsointhe 1970's, the region's more
mraltownsjoined suburban communities in
witnessingsubstantialincreases intheirpopula-
tions while conversely, theurbancore citieslost
residents.
Inthe 1980's, theregion'spopulation
increased 3.6%. Thesuburban and rural commu-
nitiescontinued togain atthe fastest rate; however
thecities, withtheexceptionofHolyoke, also
increased inpopulation. This 3.6% growth rate
compares to astatewidegainof4.9% and a
national increaseof9.8% inpopulation.

TheProjectedPopulation PartII. Description of
Methodology
ThepopulationofthePioneerValley PopulationChangesByAge
Regionisprojectedtocontinueincreasingthrough 1990-2000 Overview
theyear2020atamodestrateofgrowth. The 60.000
projected ratesofchange aresmallerthanthose 1990Population
50,000 E3 2000Population Populationprojectionsweregenerated
experiencedduringthe 1980's,withanincreaseof
2.6% from 1990to2000,0.7% from2000to2010, co 40,000 iwnidtihviindutahellPyifoonreeeracVhalolfetyheRe4g3iocnit.iesThaendprtoojwencsted
iasnddu1e.t2o%reflraotmiv2el0y1l0otwob2i0r2t0h.raTtehsiswhriatcehoafrgerowth Iao. 30,000 populationforeachcommunity wasthen summed
°- 20,000 togiveatotalpopulationprojectionfordie region.
expectedtocontinueintothefuture.
Withineachcommunity,thepopulation
The populationoftheregionwillbe 10,000
wasdividedinto the following five-yearage
aging. Theestimatedmedianageofthe region's 0
groups: 0^, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24,25-29, 30-
populationincreasedfmm28.1 years in 1970to
32.7yearsin 1990. By2020,the medianageof AgeGroup 34, 35-39,40-44,45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-
69, 70-74,75-79, 80-84, 85-I-. Populationby age
residentsinthePioneerValleyRegionisexpected
groupfortheyears 1970, 1980and 1990was used
tobe37.2 years.
asdiebasisofthe projection. Changes in popula-
Bytheyear2000,fourofthetenage PopulationChanges ByAge
groupsunderage45 will showdecreasesin 1990-2020 tionbetween theseyearswereused todevelop
projectionfactors foreachagegroup.
population. Sixofthenine agegroupsover45 60,000
owilldlaignecrceoahsoertw.itBhyma20r2k0e,dtghaeinshsifitnotfheth4e5p-op5u9lay-ear 50,000 El 21092900PPooppuullaattiioonn 2000,20P1o0pualnadti2o0n20wafsorperaocjhecatgedetgorotuhpe.yeTahriss
40.000 populationmodelanalyzedpopulationchange
tioninto theolderagegroupsismorepronounced.
withinUiese five-yearagecohortsas a function of
Ofthetenagegroupsunderage45, sevenwill 30.000 -0
fertility,mortality and migration.
decreasewhile,ofthenine agegroups above age
20.000 Three different approaches wereused to
45, seven show substantial increases.
10.000 projectpopulation fordifferent age groups.
llii Projectionsforthemajorityofthepopulation, 10
'><^,<»?s'' T?1*a**rS* 4''?I? ^f' <? fe**<S>A°a' a"* ^* to74 yearolds, formed thebasisofthe model and
AgeGroup thereforethemethod forthisagegroupis ex-
plained first. Slightdeviations from the basic
approachwereapplied forthe youngestand oldest
agegroups,0to9and75 and over, respectively.
The following discussion explains by ex-
ample how the projections were developed.

A, ProjectionMethodologyFOR Projectionfactormultipliers weredevel- thesechildrenarethe resultofbirths among
10-74Age Cohort oped foreachfive-yearagegroupbetween 10and womenthat were betweenthe ages of20 and 34in
Peoplewithinthe 10to74 agegroups are 74 yearsofage forthedecades 1970to 1980and 1985. In 1980, these women werebetween the
those whowerealreadylivinginthe regioninthe 1980to 1990. Theseprojectionfactorswere agesof15 and29. The totalnumberofpeople
priordecade, andsotheseagegroups were averaged toproducetheprojection factors forthe (maleand female) inAgawamin 1980between 15
projected withmultipliersthatreflectmortalityand year2000. The averagingcalculation weighted and29 was 6,555. Dividingthenumberof
migrationonly. Inthefollowingexplanation,the the 1970to 1980decadebyonethird,while personsbetween0and4in 1990bythenumberof
TownofAgawamisgivenasanexample. Please weightingthe 1980to 1990decadebytwo thirds. personsbetween20and 29 in 1980gives a
refertothePopulationProjectionsTableforthe Thisweightingplacedmoreimportanceonthe projectionfactor,ormultiplier, forthe0to4 age
TownofAgawam. migratoryandmortalitytrendsofthemostrecent groupbetween 1980and 1990. 1700/6555 =
InAgawam,in 1980,therewere 1,485 decade. 0.259. Performingthesamecalculationforthe
personsinthe0-4 agegroup. Overatenyear The sameprocedurewasusedtodevelop decadebetween 1970and 1980results ina
period, someoftheseindividualsdied,some projectionfactors fortheyears2010and 2020. projectionfactorof 0.276. Theseprojection
movedout,andothersmovedin, resultingin 1,592 Exceptionstothis weremadeinthe communities factorsprincipally representabirth rate,butalso
individualsinthe 10-14 agegroupby 1990. The ofGiicopee, Holland,Holyoke and wherethe containeffectsduetomortality andmigration. If
resultingchangewasanincreaseof7.2% within changesinpopulationinthe 1980's wereconsid- we assume thedifferences inmortality and
this agecohort, whichtheprojectionmodel eredmorereflective ofactual trendsthanthose migrationbetweenthedecadesofthe 1970's and
expresseswithaprojectionfactor,ormultiplier,of whichoccurred inthe 1970's. Forexample, 1980's arenegligible, thenthechange from a
1.072. Sincethedeathrate forthis agecohort WestoverAirForce Basewas deactivated inthe projectionfactorof0.276 forthe 1970 to 1980
duringthe 1980'sissmall,mostofthechangewas 1970'swhichhad asubstantial impactonthe decadeto aprojection factorof0.259forthe 1980
theresultofmigration. Thatis,mostofthe7.2% populationofChicopee. This wasconsidered a to 1990decadeshows adecline in fertility.
increase wasdue toanetin-migration. deviationfrom historicalgrowthpatterns and thus Projectionsofpeople inthe agegroup5 to
Alsoin 1980,therewere 1,278 personsin removed from considerationintheprojection. 9iscalculated with aslightmodification. In 1990,
the40-44 agegroup. Overatenyearperiod, therewere 1,726 personsbetweenthe agesof5
personsinthisgroupdied,movedoutandmoved and9inAgawam. Thesepersonswere bom
in,resultingin 1,215 personsinthe50-54 age B. ProjectionMethodologyfor between 1980and 1984, and therefore were
groupby 1990. Thischangeamountsto ade- 0-4AND5-9Age Cohorts principallytheoffspringofpersonsbetween the
creaseofapproximately4.9%, whichtheprojec- Populationinagegroups0-4 and 5-9 agesof20and 34 in 1980. Dividing the number
tionmodelexpresses as aprojectionfactorof 1 resultfrom theeffectsoffertility,mortality and ofpersons between5 and 9 in 1990by the number
minus0.049, whichequals0.951. Sincethe migration thatoccuroveratenyearperiod. Since ofpersonsbetween 20and 34 in 1980 gives the
probabilityofdeathoccurringtopersons inthis birthsoccurto womenbetweenthe agesof20to projection factorbetween 1980and 1990forthe
agecohortisestimated at7.9%,we assume there 34 withgreaterfrequencythan women ofother agegroup5 to9. Thecalculation is: 1726/
wasmigrationintotowntomakeupthe difference. agegroups,these agegroups wereused as the (2047-(-2311+2457) = 0.253. TheprojecUon factor
Specifically,if7.9% ofthisgroupdied, while the basis forprojectingnewpopulation. forthe5 to9 agegroup forthedecade between
actualmeasured decrease is4.9%,thenthe in- InAgawam in 1990, therewere 1,700 1970and 1980is: 1891/(1752+1779+1226) =
migrauonwas (l-0.049)/(1-0.079),or3.3%. personsbetweenthe agesof0and4. Mostof 0.398.
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