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Regional population projections, 2000-2020 : Pioneer Valley Region, Massachusetts PDF

108 Pages·1991·3.5 MB·English
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Preview Regional population projections, 2000-2020 : Pioneer Valley Region, Massachusetts

Regional Research Report UMASS/AMHERST December 1991 315Qtt.01bSb317b Regional Population Projections, 2000 -2020 Pioneer Valley Region Massachusetts RegionalData Center Pioneer ValleyPlanning Commission 26 CentralStreet • WestSpringfield, MASSACHUSEns 0I0S9 • Telephone: (413) 781-604:) / (PublicationPrice: $20.00) The Pioneer Valley Planning Commission maintains extensive demographic, economic, transportation and land use datafiles as a resourcefor business and government. Customized researchandanalysesservices areavailable. Data can bepresentedin table, graphicormapped formats. Formoreinformation, contactthe Commission'sRegionalDataCenter. Table of Contents Parti: AnOverviewofTheProjectedPopulation 1 PartII: DescriptionofMethodology 2 PartIII: PioneerValleyRegionPopulation Change,7970-2020 ... 5 PartIV: PopulationProjectionsby5 yearAgeCohorts 6 Cities &Towns(inAlphabeticalOrder) 6 HampdenCounty 49 HampshireCounty 50 PioneerValleyRegion 51 ThisreportwasfinancedinpartbytheMassachusettsDepartmentofPublicWorkswithassistancefromthe FederalHighwayAdministrationandthe UrbanMassTransportationAdministration. PartL An Overview of theProjectedPopulation PopulationtrendsofthePioneerValley Anevaluationofhistorical population Regionreflecttheratesofchangeexperienced PopulationofthePioneerValleyRegion, trends are a key factorin assessingfuturepopula- throughouttheCommonwealthofMassachusetts Massachusettsand UnitedStates tiongrowth. Withinthe PioneerValleyRegion withgrowthoccurringataslowerrate thanthatof 110 and,in fact, throughoutthe United States, the the United States. ThePioneerValleyRegion 90 decadeofthe 1950'sbroughtto aclosehighbirth encompassesthe SpringfieldMetropolitan Area, rateswhich resulted intoday's largestpopulation 70 which is thefourthlargestmetropolitanarea in segmentcommonly referred to as BabyBoomers. NewEnglandfollowingthoseofBoston,Hartford, 50 Between 1950and 1960,the region'spopulation Region 4a3ndciPtrioesviadnedncteo.wnTsh,eisraepgiporno,xiwmhaitcehlyistmheadsiezeupofof T 30 Massachusetis iwnhcircehasbeedgbayni1n6.th7e%paosstthweahriegrharcaotnestionfuebdir.thNearly theStateofRhodeIsland andhad a 1990popula- 10 everycommunity intheregiongainedpopulation tionof602,878 residents. -10 while atthesame timethetrendtoward 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2021 suburbanizationbecameevident. During the Year decadewhichended in 1970,theregion's rateof populationincrease had slowedto9.4%. PioneerValley Region, Massachusetts Subsequently,between 1970and 1980the region'spopulationremained virtuallyunchanged with asmalldecreaseof0.2%. Inthisdecade,the populationofthe region's southernmostcounty, HampdenCounty,decreasedby 16,033 while, to thenorth, Hampshire Countygained 14,832 residents. Alsointhe 1970's, the region's more mraltownsjoined suburban communities in witnessingsubstantialincreases intheirpopula- tions while conversely, theurbancore citieslost residents. Inthe 1980's, theregion'spopulation increased 3.6%. Thesuburban and rural commu- nitiescontinued togain atthe fastest rate; however thecities, withtheexceptionofHolyoke, also increased inpopulation. This 3.6% growth rate compares to astatewidegainof4.9% and a national increaseof9.8% inpopulation. TheProjectedPopulation PartII. Description of Methodology ThepopulationofthePioneerValley PopulationChangesByAge Regionisprojectedtocontinueincreasingthrough 1990-2000 Overview theyear2020atamodestrateofgrowth. The 60.000 projected ratesofchange aresmallerthanthose 1990Population 50,000 E3 2000Population Populationprojectionsweregenerated experiencedduringthe 1980's,withanincreaseof 2.6% from 1990to2000,0.7% from2000to2010, co 40,000 iwnidtihviindutahellPyifoonreeeracVhalolfetyheRe4g3iocnit.iesThaendprtoojwencsted iasnddu1e.t2o%reflraotmiv2el0y1l0otwob2i0r2t0h.raTtehsiswhriatcehoafrgerowth Iao. 30,000 populationforeachcommunity wasthen summed °- 20,000 togiveatotalpopulationprojectionfordie region. expectedtocontinueintothefuture. Withineachcommunity,thepopulation The populationoftheregionwillbe 10,000 wasdividedinto the following five-yearage aging. Theestimatedmedianageofthe region's 0 groups: 0^, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24,25-29, 30- populationincreasedfmm28.1 years in 1970to 32.7yearsin 1990. By2020,the medianageof AgeGroup 34, 35-39,40-44,45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65- 69, 70-74,75-79, 80-84, 85-I-. Populationby age residentsinthePioneerValleyRegionisexpected groupfortheyears 1970, 1980and 1990was used tobe37.2 years. asdiebasisofthe projection. Changes in popula- Bytheyear2000,fourofthetenage PopulationChanges ByAge groupsunderage45 will showdecreasesin 1990-2020 tionbetween theseyearswereused todevelop projectionfactors foreachagegroup. population. Sixofthenine agegroupsover45 60,000 owilldlaignecrceoahsoertw.itBhyma20r2k0e,dtghaeinshsifitnotfheth4e5p-op5u9lay-ear 50,000 El 21092900PPooppuullaattiioonn 2000,20P1o0pualnadti2o0n20wafsorperaocjhecatgedetgorotuhpe.yeTahriss 40.000 populationmodelanalyzedpopulationchange tioninto theolderagegroupsismorepronounced. withinUiese five-yearagecohortsas a function of Ofthetenagegroupsunderage45, sevenwill 30.000 -0 fertility,mortality and migration. decreasewhile,ofthenine agegroups above age 20.000 Three different approaches wereused to 45, seven show substantial increases. 10.000 projectpopulation fordifferent age groups. llii Projectionsforthemajorityofthepopulation, 10 '><^,<»?s'' T?1*a**rS* 4''?I? ^f' <? fe**<S>A°a' a"* ^* to74 yearolds, formed thebasisofthe model and AgeGroup thereforethemethod forthisagegroupis ex- plained first. Slightdeviations from the basic approachwereapplied forthe youngestand oldest agegroups,0to9and75 and over, respectively. The following discussion explains by ex- ample how the projections were developed. A, ProjectionMethodologyFOR Projectionfactormultipliers weredevel- thesechildrenarethe resultofbirths among 10-74Age Cohort oped foreachfive-yearagegroupbetween 10and womenthat were betweenthe ages of20 and 34in Peoplewithinthe 10to74 agegroups are 74 yearsofage forthedecades 1970to 1980and 1985. In 1980, these women werebetween the those whowerealreadylivinginthe regioninthe 1980to 1990. Theseprojectionfactorswere agesof15 and29. The totalnumberofpeople priordecade, andsotheseagegroups were averaged toproducetheprojection factors forthe (maleand female) inAgawamin 1980between 15 projected withmultipliersthatreflectmortalityand year2000. The averagingcalculation weighted and29 was 6,555. Dividingthenumberof migrationonly. Inthefollowingexplanation,the the 1970to 1980decadebyonethird,while personsbetween0and4in 1990bythenumberof TownofAgawamisgivenasanexample. Please weightingthe 1980to 1990decadebytwo thirds. personsbetween20and 29 in 1980gives a refertothePopulationProjectionsTableforthe Thisweightingplacedmoreimportanceonthe projectionfactor,ormultiplier, forthe0to4 age TownofAgawam. migratoryandmortalitytrendsofthemostrecent groupbetween 1980and 1990. 1700/6555 = InAgawam,in 1980,therewere 1,485 decade. 0.259. Performingthesamecalculationforthe personsinthe0-4 agegroup. Overatenyear The sameprocedurewasusedtodevelop decadebetween 1970and 1980results ina period, someoftheseindividualsdied,some projectionfactors fortheyears2010and 2020. projectionfactorof 0.276. Theseprojection movedout,andothersmovedin, resultingin 1,592 Exceptionstothis weremadeinthe communities factorsprincipally representabirth rate,butalso individualsinthe 10-14 agegroupby 1990. The ofGiicopee, Holland,Holyoke and wherethe containeffectsduetomortality andmigration. If resultingchangewasanincreaseof7.2% within changesinpopulationinthe 1980's wereconsid- we assume thedifferences inmortality and this agecohort, whichtheprojectionmodel eredmorereflective ofactual trendsthanthose migrationbetweenthedecadesofthe 1970's and expresseswithaprojectionfactor,ormultiplier,of whichoccurred inthe 1970's. Forexample, 1980's arenegligible, thenthechange from a 1.072. Sincethedeathrate forthis agecohort WestoverAirForce Basewas deactivated inthe projectionfactorof0.276 forthe 1970 to 1980 duringthe 1980'sissmall,mostofthechangewas 1970'swhichhad asubstantial impactonthe decadeto aprojection factorof0.259forthe 1980 theresultofmigration. Thatis,mostofthe7.2% populationofChicopee. This wasconsidered a to 1990decadeshows adecline in fertility. increase wasdue toanetin-migration. deviationfrom historicalgrowthpatterns and thus Projectionsofpeople inthe agegroup5 to Alsoin 1980,therewere 1,278 personsin removed from considerationintheprojection. 9iscalculated with aslightmodification. In 1990, the40-44 agegroup. Overatenyearperiod, therewere 1,726 personsbetweenthe agesof5 personsinthisgroupdied,movedoutandmoved and9inAgawam. Thesepersonswere bom in,resultingin 1,215 personsinthe50-54 age B. ProjectionMethodologyfor between 1980and 1984, and therefore were groupby 1990. Thischangeamountsto ade- 0-4AND5-9Age Cohorts principallytheoffspringofpersonsbetween the creaseofapproximately4.9%, whichtheprojec- Populationinagegroups0-4 and 5-9 agesof20and 34 in 1980. Dividing the number tionmodelexpresses as aprojectionfactorof 1 resultfrom theeffectsoffertility,mortality and ofpersons between5 and 9 in 1990by the number minus0.049, whichequals0.951. Sincethe migration thatoccuroveratenyearperiod. Since ofpersonsbetween 20and 34 in 1980 gives the probabilityofdeathoccurringtopersons inthis birthsoccurto womenbetweenthe agesof20to projection factorbetween 1980and 1990forthe agecohortisestimated at7.9%,we assume there 34 withgreaterfrequencythan women ofother agegroup5 to9. Thecalculation is: 1726/ wasmigrationintotowntomakeupthe difference. agegroups,these agegroups wereused as the (2047-(-2311+2457) = 0.253. TheprojecUon factor Specifically,if7.9% ofthisgroupdied, while the basis forprojectingnewpopulation. forthe5 to9 agegroup forthedecade between actualmeasured decrease is4.9%,thenthe in- InAgawam in 1990, therewere 1,700 1970and 1980is: 1891/(1752+1779+1226) = migrauonwas (l-0.049)/(1-0.079),or3.3%. personsbetweenthe agesof0and4. Mostof 0.398. m m m m i i

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