Regional Economic Analysis of Power, Elections, and Secession

198 Pages·2018·2.502 MB·English

by  Moriki Hosoe (eds.)

New Frontiers in Regional Science: Asian Perspectives 21
Moriki Hosoe Editor
Regional
Economic
Analysis of
Power, Elections,
and Secession
New Frontiers in Regional Science:
Asian Perspectives
Volume 21
EditorinChief
YoshiroHigano,UniversityofTsukuba
ManagingEditors
MakotoTawada(GeneralManagingEditor),AichiGakuinUniversity
KiyokoHagihara,BukkyoUniversity
LilyKiminami,NiigataUniversity
EditorialBoard
YasuhiroSakai(AdvisorChiefJapan),ShigaUniversity
YasuhideOkuyama,UniversityofKitakyushu
ZhengWang,ChineseAcademyofSciences
YuzuruMiyata,ToyohashiUniversityofTechnology
HiroyukiShibusawa,ToyohashiUniversityofTechnology
SaburoSaito,FukuokaUniversity
MakotoOkamura,HiroshimaUniversity
MorikiHosoe,KumamotoGakuenUniversity
BudyPrasetyoResosudarmo,CrawfordSchoolofPublicPolicy,ANU
Shin-KunPeng,AcademiaSinica
GeoffreyJohnDennisHewings,UniversityofIllinois
EuijuneKim,SeoulNationalUniversity
SrijitMishra,IndiraGandhiInstituteofDevelopmentResearch
AmitrajeetA.Batabyal,RochesterInstituteofTechnology
YizhiWang,ShanghaiAcademyofSocialSciences
DanielShefer,Technion-IsraelInstituteofTechnology
AkiraKiminami,TheUniversityofTokyo
JorgeSerrano,NationalUniversityofMexico
AdvisoryBoard
PeterNijkamp(Chair,ExOfficioMemberofEditorialBoard),TinbergenInstitute
RachelS.Franklin,BrownUniversity
MarkD.Partridge,OhioStateUniversity
JacquesPoot,UniversityofWaikato
AuraReggiani,UniversityofBologna
NewFrontiersinRegionalScience:AsianPerspectives
Thisseriesisaconstellationofworksbyscholarsinthefieldofregionalscienceand
inrelateddisciplinesspecificallyfocusingondynamisminAsia.
Asia is the most dynamic part of the world. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore
experiencedrapidandmiracleeconomicgrowthinthe1970s.Malaysia,Indonesia,
and Thailand followed in the 1980s. China, India, and Vietnam are now rising
countries in Asia and are even leading the world economy. Due to their rapid
economic development and growth, Asian countries continue to face a variety of
urgentissuesincludingregionalandinstitutionalunbalancedgrowth,environmental
problems, poverty amidst prosperity, an ageing society, the collapse of the bubble
economy,anddeflation,amongothers.
Asian countries are diversified as they have their own cultural, historical, and
geographical as well as political conditions. Due to this fact, scholars specializing
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providingmitigatingpolicyproposalsbasedonrobustinterdisciplinaryanalysisof
multifacetedregionalissuesandsubjectsinAsia.Thisseriesnotonlywillpresent
unique research results from Asia that are unfamiliar in other parts of the world
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thoseregionsthathavefocusedonregionalandurbanissuesinAsiafromdifferent
perspectives.
The series aims to expand the frontiers of regional science through diffusion of
intrinsically developed and advanced modern regional science methodologies in
Asiaandotherareasoftheworld.Readerswillbeinspiredtorealizethatregional
and urban issues in the world are so vast that their established methodologies still
have space for development and refinement, and to understand the importance of
the interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approach that is inherent in regional
scienceforanalyzingandresolvingurgentregionalandurbanissuesinAsia.
Topics under consideration in this series include the theory of social cost and
benefit analysis and criteria of public investments, socio-economic vulnerability
against disasters, food security and policy, agro-food systems in China, industrial
clusteringinAsia,comprehensivemanagementofwaterenvironmentandresources
inariverbasin,theinternationaltradeblocandfoodsecurity,migrationandlabor
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Researchers who are interested in publishing their books in this Series
should obtain a proposal form from Yoshiro Higano (Editor in Chief,
[email protected])andreturnthecompletedformtohim.
Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/13039
Moriki Hosoe
Editor
Regional Economic
Analysis of Power,
Elections, and Secession
123
Editor
MorikiHosoe
FacultyofEconomics
KumamotoGakuenUniversity
Kumamoto,Japan
ISSN2199-5974 ISSN2199-5982 (electronic)
NewFrontiersinRegionalScience:AsianPerspectives
ISBN978-4-431-55895-8 ISBN978-4-431-55897-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55897-2
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Preface
The main object of this book is to explain some of the mechanisms of integration
andsecessionamongregionsfromthepointofviewofgametheory.Toattainthis
goal,theincentivesofregionsinacountrytouniteortosecedeandtheconditions
inthewayforthemembercountriesofafederationtoleavepeacefullyorbyway
ofviolenceareexamined.
Since 1990, the Soviet Union drastically split into 15 independent countries;
Yugoslaviawasdividedinto6countriesafterthebloodycivilwar.InAsia,tensions
oversecessionhavebecomemoreandmoreserious,includingseparatisttensionsin
China,India,Iraq,Myanmar,andSriLanka.Whydosuchregionalconflictsoccur?
Arethereanydevicestosolvethem?
Inthisbook,wetrytoanswersuchquestions,andstudythemovementofregional
secessionandintegrationineachregion,likeculture,ethnicity,orreligion.Thereare
severalimportantresourcesofpowerinregionalconflicts.Oneofthemostimportant
factors in the bargaining power of conflicting parties is ethnicity. Ethnicity is an
element that dominates the common feelings of people in many cases. Therefore,
committedpowerinregionalconflictsisveryimportant.Anotherfactorisreligious
fervor.Areligiousmindandreligiousenthusiasmaredifferentthings.However,in
countriesorregionsinethniccrisissituations,thetwoareoftenunited.
Wealsoinvestigatetheinfluenceofpowerofathirdregiononsecession.Wecan
raisetherecentconsolidationbyRussiaoftheCrimeanPeninsulaasanexampleof
thisthirdpartyeffect.Electionisalsoanimportantpowertosolveregionalconflicts.
Therefore, how the formats of regional election or referendum are designed is
critical as some commitment devices of secession. The decentralization of power
intax-subsidypolicyandinthepoliticalgovernanceformintworegionsisshown
to be important as a way to avoid wasteful conflict for the secession incentive of
a minority region. We point out that the natural resources in secessionist are often
critical as bargaining power over secession conflict. How those powers depend on
heterogeneitycostsassociatedwithdifferentpreferencesoverthetypeofregionand
therelativesizeofthetworegionsisshown.
v
vi Preface
Lastly, we would like to thank the editorial board at the Japan Section of the
RegionalScienceAssociationforcompilingthisvolumeasoneoftheseriesofNew
FrontiersinRegionalScience:AsianPerspectives,inparticular,ProfessorYoshiro
Higano,whokindlyreviewedthecontentsofthisbookaseditorinchief.
Kumamoto,Japan MorikiHosoe
August2017
Contents
1 TheIssueofRegionalConflictandSecession............................. 1
MorikiHosoe
2 Secession,RepresentativeElections,andPoliticalGovernance......... 13
MorikiHosoe
3 RegionalIntegrationandSecessionwithRent-Seeking ................. 41
MorikiHosoe
4 IntegrationandSecessionUnderThreatofThirdRegion .............. 61
MorikiHosoe
5 Integration,ThirdRegionEffect,andPolicyCommitment............. 79
ShigeharuSato
6 SecessionandFiscalPolicy.................................................. 89
TadahisaOhno
7 VotingandSecession......................................................... 117
ShigeharuSato
8 ResourceSharing,CivilConflict,andSecession.......................... 143
MorikiHosoe
9 Empirical Analyses of Secession and Integration: What
DeterminesNationalSize?.................................................. 161
TakashiKihara
Index............................................................................... 193
vii
Chapter 1
The Issue of Regional Conflict and Secession
MorikiHosoe
1.1 The IssueofRegionalConflictand Secession
Regionalconflicts,whichhavepersistedfromancienttimestomoderntimes,have
includedethnicwarsandwarsofconquest.Secessionhasbeenthecauseandresult
of regional conflicts. During the last few decades, many national breakouts have
occurred.AleksandarandRadan[2]provideacomprehensiveguidetothesecession
issues. The most dramatic examples were the big bang in Eastern Europe after
the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Even today, from Catalonia and Scotland
to South Sudan and Kashmir, secessionist movements demanding independence
are occurring throughout the world under all kinds of political and economic
circumstances. A short look at two histories in Asia is illustrative of the causes
ofthebreakoutandformationofstates.OneisrelatedtoBangladesh.Theotheris
relatedtoTimor.
1.1.1 BangladeshandTimor
Inthesixteenthcentury,theBengalregiondevelopedintothecenterofcommerce
and industry under the Mughal Empire. The UK controlled most of the Bengal
region as England’s East India Company was formed at the end of the eighteenth
century. After Britain withdrew from colonial India in 1947, districts in which
MuslimsconstitutedamajorityseparatedandbecameindependentasPakistan.The
district in which a majority of inhabitants believed in Hinduism was separated as
M.Hosoe((cid:2))
FacultyofEconomics,KumamotoGakuenUniversity,Kumamoto,Japan
e-mail:[email protected]
©SpringerJapanKK2018 1
M.Hosoe(eds.),RegionalEconomicAnalysisofPower,Elections,andSecession,
NewFrontiersinRegionalScience:AsianPerspectives21,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55897-2_1
2 M.Hosoe
India.WhatisnowBangladeshbecameEastPakistan.Partitionwasfollowedbywar
with India over Kashmir, mass migration of Muslims, and resettlement of Hindus
and Sikhs within the new borders. This led to violence, financial loss, and death
on a large scale. Pakistan therefore comprised East Pakistan and West Pakistan,
geographicallyseparatedby1600km.Muslimslivedinbothplaces,buteconomic
andpoliticaldisparitiesbetweenthetworegionsspread.Asaresult,tworegionshad
beenunderseriousconflict.SincetheUrdulanguageusedinWestPakistanProvince
becamethenationallanguage,thecivilwarbegan.TheAwamiLeague,basedinEast
Pakistanwithahighpopulation,waseventuallyvictorious.InDecember1974,the
independenceofBangladeshwasacknowledged.Severalmillionpeoplewerekilled
or displaced by the India-Pakistan war and the Bangladesh war for independence.
Given this history, the main causes of independence and secession of Bangladesh
are the differences in language, geographical remoteness, economic disparity, and
Westerncolonialism.
Let us raise the case of Timor-Leste as another example of regional conflict in
Asia. Since the sixteenth century, Timor Island was occupied by the Netherlands
in the western half and Portugal in the eastern half. After World War II, East
Timor continued as a Portuguese colony after the former Dutch territory became
independent as Indonesia. The independence movement also strengthened in East
Timor, as a result of the democratization of Portugal. East Timor declared its
independence in 1975. However, the independence faction and a conspiracy with
Indonesiaconflicted,eruptingintocivilwar.Reportedly,abouttwomillionpeople
were killed. The Indonesian Soeharto administration came to consolidate this
region. However, in 1999, following the United Nations-sponsored act of self-
determination, the referendum had a majority in favor of independence, and East
Timorestablishedtheindependencethroughinterventionofamultinationalforceof
theUnitedNations.InthiscaseofTimor-Leste,ethnicconflictorreligiousconflict
wasnotnecessarilyamaincauseofregionalconflict.Developmentofnationalism
was promoted since Portuguese colonization. Severe poverty under Indonesian
repressionprovidedthemainmomentumdrivingthepushtowardindependence.
1.1.2 Quebecand Crimea
In modern democratic societies, regional conflicts that arise with secession are
resolved in most cases by peaceful means, contrasting against bloody conflict in
regionsinAsia.Thesecontroversiesaresubjectedtoardentparliamentarydelibera-
tionsandbecomeimportantissuesinparliamentaryelectionsorreferendums.These
areoftenbroughttojudicialdecisions.
For example, regarding the independence issue in Quebec, Canada, the central
government had asked the court to rule on the legality of a unilateral Que-
bec declaration of independence after Quebec implemented the referendum. The
SupremeCourtofCanadaruledin1998thatneithertheCanadianconstitutionnor
internationallawallowsQuebectosecedefromCanadaunilaterally.Italsoshowed