Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet

159 Pages·2012·0.67 MB·English

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Reducing Long-Term
Costs While Preserving
a Robust Strategic
Airlift Fleet
Options for the Current Fleet and
Next-Generation Aircraft
Christopher A. Mouton, David T. Orletsky,
Michael Kennedy, Fred Timson
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans,
Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mouton, Christopher A.
Reducing long-term costs while preserving a robust strategic airlift fleet : options
for the current fleet and next-generation aircraft / Christopher A. Mouton, David T.
Orletsky, Michael Kennedy, Fred Timson.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-7701-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Airlift, Military —United States—Planning. 2. United States. Air Mobility
Command. 3. Galaxy (Jet transport)—Costs. 4. C-17 (Jet transport)—Costs.
5. United States. Air Force—Appropriations and expenditures. I. Title.
UC333.M68 2013
358.4'46—dc23
2012048114
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Preface
This document reports the findings of a fiscal year 2010–2011 RAND
Project AIR FORCE study, “U.S. Air Force (USAF) Intertheater Air-
lift Fleet Recapitalization Strategy.”1 In this study, we conducted a
cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the best way to recapitalize the
USAF intertheater (strategic) airlift fleet.
The USAF intertheater airlift fleet comprises C-5s and C-17As.
This fleet has been used more heavily since the attacks on September
11, 2001, as a result of overseas contingency operations. As a result,
some aircraft will reach their flight hour limits earlier than initially
expected, and recapitalization of the fleet will be required to maintain
capability. One option is the development and procurement of a new
military airlifter, notionally called “C-X.” This would require a large
capital outlay for research and development and early production units.
Given the current downward pressure on the defense budget and the
need to recapitalize other portions of the USAF fleet, adequate fund-
ing may not be available. Further, annual funding profiles may need
to be “flattened” or “deconflicted” with other USAF programs to fit
in the overall USAF budget. This study examined a broad range of
potential aircraft alternatives and considered a number of permutations
on USAF plans for the current fleet, including a reduced requirement
and retirement of all C-5As, to determine how best to recapitalize this
1 A companion volume to this document contains two additional appendixes. See Chris-
topher A. Mouton, David T. Orletsky, Michael Kennedy, and Fred Timson, Reducing
Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet: Appendixes C and D, Santa
Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1238/1-AF, forthcoming, Not available to the
general public.
iii
iv Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet
fleet. This study analyzed both the net present value life-cycle cost and
annual funding profiles of the options considered. Conclusions and
recommendations are based on both of these measures.
The research described in this document was sponsored by Gen
Raymond E. Johns, Jr., Commander, Air Mobility Command, Scott
Air Force Base, Illinois. The study was performed within the Force
Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR
FORCE.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo-
ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with
independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air,
space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force
Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train-
ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
http://www.rand.org/paf/
Contents
Preface .............................................................................iii
Figures ............................................................................. ix
Tables ............................................................................ xiii
Summary ..........................................................................xv
Acknowledgments ........................................................... xxvii
Abbreviations .................................................................. xxix
ChAPTer One
Introduction .......................................................................1
Organization of This Document .................................................4
ChAPTer TwO
Intertheater Airlift Fleet and retirement Schedule ........................7
Projected Airlift Retirements .....................................................8
C-17A ..............................................................................9
C-5 .............................................................................. 13
Fleet Drawdown................................................................ 13
Reduced Force Levels—Budget Control Act of 2011 ..................... 15
Options Considered for the C-5 and C-17A Fleets........................... 17
ChAPTer Three
Aircraft Alternatives............................................................ 21
Aircraft Alternatives Analyzed.................................................. 21
C-5 and C-17A Aircraft ....................................................... 21
A C-17A–Derivative Aircraft ................................................. 22
Commercial-Derivative Freight Aircraft .................................... 22
v
vi Reducing Long-Term Costs While Preserving a Robust Strategic Airlift Fleet
Foreign Military Aircraft ..................................................... 23
New Current-Technology Aircraft ........................................... 23
New Future-Design Aircraft .................................................. 23
Aircraft Alternative Weight Characteristics ................................... 24
Aircraft Alternative Payload and Range Capability .......................... 27
Mission-Capable Rates .......................................................... 28
Measures of Aircraft Technology Risk ........................................ 28
ChAPTer FOur
effectiveness Methodology and results .................................... 31
Overview .......................................................................... 31
Analyze Cargo Demand Based on Aircraft Capability ...................... 32
Compute Mission and Route Requirements .................................. 35
Compute Mission Times ........................................................ 36
Aircraft Ground Times ........................................................ 37
Aircraft Flight Times .......................................................... 40
Compute Fleet Size and Relative Aircraft Effectiveness ..................... 40
Effectiveness Results ............................................................. 41
Options Considered for Follow-On Fleet ..................................... 47
ChAPTer FIve
Cost Analysis Methodology and results ................................... 53
Fleet Size .......................................................................... 54
RDT&E and Procurement Costs .............................................. 55
Operating and Support Costs .................................................. 58
Crew Costs ..................................................................... 59
O&S Costs Excluding Fuel and Crew ...................................... 60
Fuel Costs ....................................................................... 62
Net Present Value Life-Cycle Cost Methodology ............................ 62
RDT&E and Procurement Spending Profiles .............................. 63
Summary Cost Data ............................................................. 64
NPV of the C-5 and C-17A Fleet ............................................ 64
NPV of Future Fleet Options ................................................ 64
ChAPTer SIx
Cost-effectiveness Analysis ................................................... 67
Contents vii
Baseline NPVLCC Cost-Effectiveness ........................................ 68
Cost-Effectiveness of C-17A Production Continuation ...................... 75
Continued C-17A Procurement at Six Aircraft per Year .................. 75
Continued C-17A Procurement at Two Aircraft per Year ................. 76
Sensitivity Analyses .............................................................. 78
Sensitivity to BWB-100++ Costs ............................................. 78
Sensitivity to Service Life of C-5 and C-17A Fleet ......................... 80
Sensitivity to C-5A RERP Cost .............................................. 82
Sensitivity to C-767 Procurement Cost ..................................... 86
Sensitivity to Continued C-17A Procurement Cost ........................ 87
Sensitivity to Reduced Requirement Level.................................. 89
Sensitivity to Fuel Prices ...................................................... 92
Sensitivity to Life Span of Future Aircraft .................................. 96
Parametric Analyses .............................................................. 97
Cost-Effectiveness of An-124 and Il-76 ..................................... 99
Cost-Effectiveness of C-17A SLEP ..........................................102
Annual Expenditures Analysis .................................................105
ChAPTer Seven
Conclusions ..................................................................... 111
Options for the C-5 and C-17A Fleet ......................................... 113
Options for the Follow-On Fleet ............................................. 114
APPenDIxeS
A. exemplar effectiveness Calculation .................................... 117
B. Aircraft Flight Time Modeling Details ................................121
Bibliography ....................................................................125